NHS Grampian Winter Plan 2011/12Risks and Resilience

Risks

• It’s going to be cold!• Patients will be sick!• Some staff will be absent!• Festive music will start too early!• It might even snow!• We might remember winter 2010/11!

Key Risks

• Increased demand beyond predicted• Reduced capacity• Patient Flow too slow• Pandemic Flu• Norovirus• Adverse weather• Festive period• Quality and Performance drop

Resilience

• Winter planning group/ programme• Business Continuity Plans• Pandemic/ Seasonal Flu Plans• Escalation Plans• Seasonal flu vaccination programme• Predictive demand analysis• Bed Management/ Flow coordination• Integrated working

Sector/ Partner Reviews

• G-MED• Scottish Ambulance Service• Acute• MHSCP/LA• Aberdeenshire CHP/LA• Aberdeen City/LA• Mental Health• Pharmacy• Dentistry• NHS24

Action

• Greater “buy-in” to WP• Monitored activity data closely• Active Bed Management/ Flow• Early discharge planning• Anticipatory care plans- Change Fund• Additional CHP staff and care packages• Regular teleconference – HPS• Mutual aid• National and local media information• Lobbied CEO re PH working affecting patients/

staff.