ng bb 49 risk assessment

Download NG BB 49 Risk Assessment

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  • 1. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO National GuardBlack Belt TrainingModule 49Risk AssessmentUNCLASSIFIED / FOUO

2. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUOCPI Roadmap Improve 8-STEP PROCESS6. See 1.Validate2. Identify 3. Set 4. Determine5. Develop7. Confirm8. Standardize Counter-the Performance Improvement Root Counter-ResultsSuccessful MeasuresProblem GapsTargets Cause Measures& ProcessProcesses ThroughDefineMeasureAnalyze ImproveControl TOOLSACTIVITIES Brainstorming Develop Potential Solutions Replenishment Pull/Kanban Develop Evaluation Criteria Stocking Strategy Select Best Solutions Process Flow Improvement Develop Future State Process Map(s) Process Balancing Develop Pilot Plan Standard Work Pilot Solution Quick Change Over Develop Full Scale Action/ Design of Experiments (DOE)Implementation Plan Solution Selection Matrix Complete Improve Gate To-Be Process Mapping Poka-Yoke 6S Visual Mgt RIE Note: Activities and tools vary by project. Lists provided here are not necessarily all-inclusive. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 3. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Learning Objectives Understand the concept of Risk Assessment and howit impacts your project Understand some of the tools available to identify andreduce risk before solutions are implementedRisk Assessment UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 3 4. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Risk Defined Risk The chance of loss or the perils to loss; also the degree of probability of loss Risk AssessmentUNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 4 5. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Risk Management Risk Management is a comprehensive means to proactivelyIdentifyAssessMitigatethe risks of yourproposed project changesthroughout the project Risk Assessment UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 5 6. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Tools to Assess Risk Risk Standards Matrix Risk Identification Matrix Controls Assessment Matrix FMEA FMEA Risk Assessment UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 6 7. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Risk Standards Matrix What is a Risk Standards Matrix? Simple but effective tool for identifying potential problems Prompts a BB to consider the ways in which the implementation could impact: Users Cost Safety IT Environment Other AreasRisk AssessmentUNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 7 8. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Risk Standards Matrix (Cont.) How to Construct a Risk Standards Matrix Createa standardized list of potential risk areas to be used on all projects. Think in terms of big risk and likely probability. Consider risks arising from external sources like: Supply SourceAlso Consider The 6 Ms Technology changesMan Economic conditionMaterial Political conditionsMachine RegulationMethod National MeasurementMother NatureRisk AssessmentUNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 8 9. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUOExample Risk Standards Matrix ExampleCategory Risk Score Create Standard Risk Human Resources 3 Categories M & A Activity6Capacity Planning 4Global Sourcing 3Tactical Purchasing 7 Create Scale of Either 1-5Scheduling4 or 1-10 to AssessMaterials Management2Environment 4Accounting3Hazardous Materials 3 Create Standard for Totals Community Responsibility2 Based on Risk ToleranceDepot Management3 Ex over 50 High, Over 40 Finance 1 Med, Over 30 Low Quality 1 Total 46 Risk Assessment UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 9 10. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Risk Identification Matrix What is a Risk Identification Matrix?Brainstormed list of potential project risksPrioritization of pain this would causePrioritize the likelihood of occurrenceConcentrate efforts on High Likelihood and High Pain ItemsRisk Assessment UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 10 11. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Risk Identification Matrix - Template Project Brainstorm risksPriorityRisks Impact Probability ofOccurrence Ratethe risk in terms of potential damage or cost to the organization Ratethe risk in terms of the likelihood that it will occur Focuson risks that have a large impact and are most likely to occurDate:Prepared by:Reviewed by: Next Update: Risk Assessment UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO11 12. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Controls Assessment Matrix Helps identify the activities designed to protect you and your unit fromhigh priority risks identified. To construct a controls assessment matrix: List the highest priority risk from the Risk Assessment Matrix. List the Controls that would help mitigate or eliminate the risk. Does this control exist? Discuss the appropriateness and sufficiency of each control. Identify the actions that need to take place to address any controldeficiencies.Risk Assessment UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 12 13. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Controls Assessment Matrix Example Project Objective: Accurate receipt of contracts via EDI Risk: Information is lost in transactionSufficiency of Control: (x = excessive, a = adequate, i = inadequate)Controls are not Controls Existing Is it sufficient? If not, why?Next Stepsalways cheap orY/NWhat?Who?When?easy! (a) TrainingYTraining conducted Be sure thatSystem Configured to there is a (b) Procedures notNprevent submission ofbalance between specific transactions without risks to controls,required data and that other (c) No process forobjectives such user master NUser master verification as efficiency and speed are not lost. Date: Prepared by: Reviewed by: Next Update: Risk AssessmentUNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 13 14. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) A preliminary FMEA was introduced earlier to help identifypotential causes of failures in the process As the project advances, the FMEA can be developed morefully to address and re-evaluate potential solutions FMEA is a way to organize possible product or processfailures and the risks associated with these failures - fromthis information action can be planned to reduce oreliminate that risk Complete the FMEA in the Improve phase Risk AssessmentUNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 14 15. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Types of Failure Mode and Effects Analysis Design FMEA Product or Service Design FMEA Uncover problems that may result in: Safety hazards Malfunctions Shortened product life or decreased service satisfaction Ask how can the product or service fail Process FMEA Uncover process problems that may result in: Safety hazards Defects in product or service production process Reduced process efficiency Ask how people, materials, equipment, methods, and environment cause process problems Risk Assessment UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 15 16. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Failure Mode and Effects Analysis Worksheet Identify failure modes Determine and assessIdentify causes of the Prioritizeand their effects actionsfailure modes and controlsRisk AssessmentUNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 16 17. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO How to Complete an FMEAHow-to 1. Review the product, service or process 2. Brainstorm and group possible failure modes 3. List one or more potential effects for each failure mode Answer the question: If the failure occurs, what are the consequences? 4. Assign severity rating for each effect 5. Assign an occurrence rating for each failure cause 6. Assign a detection rating for each failure mode 7. Calculate risk priority number (RPN) for each effect 8. Use the RPNs to select high priority failure modes 9. Plan to reduce or eliminate the risk associated with high priority failure modes 10. Carry out the plans 11. Recompute RPNRisk Assessment UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 17 18. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Calculating Risk Priority Risk Priority = Severity Scale BadRating Criteria: A Failure Could10 Injure a customer or employee 9 Be illegal 8 Render product or service unfit for use 7 Cause extreme customer dissatisfaction 6 Result in partial malfunctionSeverity 5 4 Cause a loss of performance which is likely to result in a complaint Cause minor performance loss 3 Cause a minor nuisance but can be overcome with no performance loss 2 Be unnoticed and have only minor effect on performancexGood 1 Be unnoticed and not affect the performanceOccurrence ScaleOccurrenceBadRating10 Time Period More than once per dayProbability >30% 9 Once every 3-4 days30%x8 7 Once every week Once per month5%1% 6 Once every 3 months.03% 5 Once every 6 months1 per 10,000 Detection 4 3 Once per year Once every 1-3 years6 per 100,0006 per million 2 Once every 3-6 years 3 per 10 million 1 Once every 6-9 years 2 per billionGood Detection Scale BadRatingDefinition10Defect causes by failure is not detectable 9Occasional units are checked for defects 8Units are systematically sampled and inspected 7All units are manually inspected 6Manual inspection with mistake-proofing modifications 5Process is monitored (SPC) and manually inspected 4SPC is used with an immediate reaction to out of control conditions 3SPC is above 100% inspection surrounding out of control conditions 2All units are automatically inspected 1Defect is obvious and can be kept from affecting the customer Good Risk Assessment UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO18 19. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Example Appeal Process Example Appeal Process BB: E. Jones 16 Appeals Process Team 3/01/01Application Incomplete Delay5 Sales Rep Rushed8Clerk Checks1 40Application Incorrect Bad Decision7 Sales Rep Mistake 5Review by Mgr 9 315 Identify error types JG 3/12/01CommitteeMembers Absent Bad Decision5 Illness/Bus Trips 10 Clerk Checks1 50Identify failure modes Identify causes of thePrioritize Determine and assess and their effects failure modesactionsand controlsRisk Assessment UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 19 20. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUOFailure Mode Effects Analysis (FMEA) O OProcess Step / Potential FailurePotential Failure Potential RootDActions D S C Current ControlsResp. Actions Taken S CInput Mode (X)Effects (Y)Causes E RecommendedE E C E CTT What is theIn what ways does What is the impact V What causes the Key U What are the existingWhat are theWhat are the V UEE Rprocess step the Key Input goon the Key Output EInput to go wrong? R controls and proceduresactions for reducing completed actions E RC RPNC Pand Input wrong?Variables (CustomerR R (inspection and test) thatthe occurrence of taken with theR RTT N underRequirements)? I E prevent either the cause the cause, or recalculated I EII investigation?T Nor the Failure Mode?improvingRPN?T NOO Y Cde


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