nfib roadshow in houston
TRANSCRIPT
PowerPoint Presentation
Small Business Economic Trends
The Small Business Economy
1William DunkelbergNFIB Research Foundation
Small Business Economic RoadshowWednesday, April 13thHouston, TX
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2 Small Business Economic Trends
GDP and Employment
HAVER ANALYTICS7 years4 years Small Business Economic Trends
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5 Small Business Economic TrendsChange in U.S. Employment: Recessions
6 Small Business Economic Trends
Missing in GDP
7 Small Business Economic Trends
Excess Debt: Paying for the PartyMAINTAINING DEBT/GDP RATIO IN 1999
HAVER ANALYTICS Small Business Economic Trends
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Consumer Net Worth
BELIEVABLE???DOT COMHOUSING Small Business Economic Trends
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Consumer Net Worth Relative to GDP
RECESSIONBUBBLEBUBBLEBUBBLE????AVERAGE 1970-1994 Small Business Economic Trends
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Consumer Interest Income
$3+ TRILLION IN LOST INTEREST INCOME Small Business Economic Trends
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13 Small Business Economic Trends
Rating of Government Policy
Small Business Economic Trends
INTEREST RATES & STOCK PRICES
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16 Small Business Economic Trends
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EXACTLY HOW HELPFUL IS TRANSPARENCY AND FORWARD GUIDANCE?
But, if inflation were slightly above 2 percent even as unemployment remained far above levels consistent with maximum employment, then the unemployment consideration would dominate because we would be further from the unemployment objective than we are from the inflation objective. NY NABE May, 2014
TAPERING HAS STARTED, ONE TRILLION IN BOND DEMAND DISAPPEARING. WHAT WILL THAT DO TO RATES?18
19 Small Business Economic Trends
Young Ben
MORTGAGESTREASURY BONDS Small Business Economic Trends
$3 TRILLION$13 BILLIONEXCESS RESERVES TO LEND$4.5 Small Business Economic Trends
NIRPUNINTENDEDCONSEQUENCES
Small Business Facts90% of all employers have fewer than 20 employees99% have fewer than 500 employeesProduce half of the private sector Gross Domestic ProductEmploy about 50% of private sector employeesProduce 2/3rds of net new jobs Small Business Economic Trends
24 Small Business Economic TrendsPrivate Sector Establishments Births and Deaths(Seasonally Adjusted)
Small Business Economic Trends
Small Business Optimism Index and Components
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26 Small Business Economic Trends
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27 Small Business Economic Trends
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Small Business Economic Trends
Credit MarketsCredit Availability and Costs
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Small Business Economic Trends
Prices and Wages
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39 Small Business Economic Trends
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Small Business Economic Trends
Employment, Job Creation and Compensation
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JOB GROWTH IN TWO NBER RECOVERY PERIODS, 1983 AND 2009
HAVER ANALYTICSQUARTERS OF RECOVERYAVERAGE 689,000AVERAGE 439,000
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47 Small Business Economic TrendsActual Compensation ChangesNet Percent (Increase Minus Decrease) During Last Three Months (Seasonally Adjusted)
Small Business Economic Trends
Capital Expenditures and Inventory Investment
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49 Small Business Economic Trends
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51 Small Business Economic Trends
2012 Small Business Problems and Priorities surveyRankProblemPercent "Critical" Percent "Not a Problem"2008 Rank1Cost of Health Insurance52.36.012Uncertainty over Economic Conditions 38.32.8new3Cost of Natural Gas, Propane, Gasoline, Diesel, Fuel Oil34.86.024Uncertainty over Government Actions 35.15.9new5Unreasonable Government Regulations 34.15.766Federal Taxes on Business Income29.56.537Tax Complexity28.86.258Frequent Changes in Federal Tax Laws and Rules24.07.0159Property Taxes (real, inventory or personal property) 24.48.6410State Taxes on Business Income23.89.9775Exporting My Products/Services2.560.37574Undocumented Workers 6.555.2 (modified ) 7073Access to High-Speed Internet751.37472Employee Turnover 438.75171Costs and Frequency of Lawsuits/Threatened Lawsuits 7.938.9(modified ) 6570Using Social Media to Promote Business (Facebook, Twitter, etc.) 4.436.8new69Winning Contracts from Federal/State/Local Governments7.543.67168Competition from Imported Products9.341.96667Protecting Intellectual Property 4.733.86266Credit Rating/Record Errors5.333.967
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Real GDP Growth in NBER Expansion Periods
TAXES & REGS Small Business Economic Trends
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FISCAL POLICY
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TRICKLE DOWN
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A NEW GLOBAL CHALLENGE?
Small Business Economic Trends
The Small Business Economy
60William DunkelbergNFIB Research Foundation
Small Business Economic RoadshowWednesday, April 13thHouston, TX
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