next 100 years
Post on 18-Oct-2014
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Based on a book by Friedman a snap shot of next 100 years how our world will change. where are the opportunities and what can be expected.TRANSCRIPT
Entrepreneurship 295a-1
Next 100 Yearsa geo political viewNaeem ZafarTwitter: @naeemwww.NaeemZafar.com
1All rights reserved Naeem Zafar1George Friedmans BookAll rights reserved Naeem Zafar2
Future is Hard to PredictAll rights reserved Naeem Zafar3
1900
London is the capital of the worldTrade interdependencies made war seem impossible
Appeared that a peaceful Europe will rule the world
1920
Europe torn apart after WW, great empires gone!New powers emerge US, JPImposed peace treat will ensure Germany will not emerge & threaten again
1940
Germany not only emerged but conquered FR & dominating EUCommunism has survived & allies with NaziBritain stands aloneFate of Europe seems all but seized by 3rd Reich1960
Germany defeatedEurope split into 2, USSR & US competing for dominanceUS emerged as super power, dominates all oceans & immense nuclear arsenalChinese seems fanatics
1980
US defeated in 7 year war US seems itself in retreatUS forms alliance with China to control surging USSR2000USSR collapsedChina is hardly communistNATO advanced to eastern EUFuture: in a glance2010: American golden age begins2015: China fragments2020: Russian collapse2050: World war USA, Japan, Turkey & Poland2060: the golden age2080: Energy crisis solved: space & solar!2100: American power is challenged: MexicoAll rights reserved Naeem Zafar4Highlights of this CenturyAmericas golden age: absolute dominancePopulation decline changes politicsUse of technology & spaceAll rights reserved Naeem Zafar5American DominanceFirst country to dominate all 7 oceans in the history of the worldNothing moves without American's explicit permissionImmigration policy keeps population robustGeographical considerations
US does not need to win wars, it needs simply to disrupt things so the other side cant build sufficient strength to challenge it
All rights reserved Naeem Zafar6American CenturyUS: 4% of world population, 26% of world GDPOil production daily barrels: US 8.3M, Russia 9.7M, Saudi 10.7MPopulation density inhabitant per sq. km:US 31 (34 w/o Alaska); Japan 338, Germany 230, world 49
All rights reserved Naeem Zafar7Why America?All rights reserved Naeem Zafar8
Historical Perspective900 AD to 1492 ADEurope thrived on Silk Route trades 1492 to 1991Naval routes found to Asia when ottomans closed Silk RouteNew age of dominance by European naval powers1991 - ??North American age startsStarted by the Lend-Lease actAll rights reserved Naeem Zafar9Major Trend: Population BustsGlobal population declineEurope is 728M people today Expected to decline to 557M by 2050 (based on fertility rate of 1.6 births per woman)Today the birth rate for Europe is 1.4!It used to be 4.5 in 1970s, by 2000 dropped to 2.7Expected to drop to 2.05 by 2050Total human population can decline by 2100
All rights reserved Naeem Zafar10American Grand StrategyDomination of North American by US army [Manifest Destiny]Elimination of any threat from any power in western hemisphere [Monroe Doctrine]Complete control of maritime approaches by NavyComplete domination of worlds oceans to secure US safety & its trading systemsPrevention of any other nation to challenge US naval power [carrot & the stick]
All rights reserved Naeem Zafar11China Closes Down by 2020All rights reserved Naeem Zafar12
Russia Must Reconstruct Old USSR1200 ~200 miBelarus aligned with RussiaIndependent Ukraine is threatAll rights reserved Naeem Zafar13
Europe~1000 70 milesRussian collapse of 2020All rights reserved Naeem Zafar14
The Caucus RegionAll rights reserved Naeem Zafar15
Russia will assert power over GeorgiaUS and Turkey will not like thisCentral AsiaRussia does not like American influence US Navy cannot reach hereExpanded Turkish InfluenceAmerican strategy is create regional forces to bring stability & not have to fight all wars directlyStronger Turkey keeps Iran in check & Russians tooOld Ottoman empire emerges
All rights reserved Naeem Zafar16
Our World in 2030All rights reserved Naeem Zafar17
Japanese population will drop to 107M with 55 M out of workforce expand influenceStrong Japanese navy strained relationships with US by 2040Turkey will be encouraged by USA to assert through Navy to curb Russian influenceVacuum after Russian collapse will expand Turkish power & it helps American agenda to stabilize region & commerce. Until 2040 when it becomes too strong!American Military ProwessUnchallengedTechnology driven innovationAllies: Turkey, Poland & Japan to keep world under controluntil 2040
the age of UnmannedHypersonic aircrafts Mach 10 to 20
All rights reserved Naeem Zafar18
The Global War of 2050Space-based weapon will play a huge roleJapan & Turkey will collaborateUS prop Poland to face Turkish influencePoland will absorb Balkan states aided by US technologyAll rights reserved Naeem Zafar19
Space: Next Frontier for EnergySpace-based solar powerUsed to supply to troopsNow will power USSolves energy crisisAll rights reserved Naeem Zafar20
Mexican ChallengeImmigration laws of 2030Political shiftSplit loyalty of citizens to older fault linesLanguage, biculturalismImmigration issues in 2080All rights reserved Naeem Zafar21
2000Geo Political LandscapeAll rights reserved Naeem Zafar22
SummaryNo one can predict the futureMacro trends are visible & hard to argue withHow shall you prepare for this?All rights reserved Naeem Zafar23Books by Naeem ZafarStartup WorkshopAll rights reserved Naeem Zafar 24
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