Michael MahManaging Partner

QSM Associates, Inc.75 South Church Street

Pittsfield, MA 01201413-499-0988

Fax 413-447-7322e-mail: michael.mah@qsma.com

New York City SPIN- Sept 2004

Agile Management Methods“Old Goats vs. Young Bucks”

A Young Goat’s Observations on Productivity Metrics

and Deadlines

Web Site: www.qsma.com

OLD GOATYOUNG BUCK

Start Day 30 Start Day 6 Day 12 Day 19 Day 30

11%

18%

BODY FAT

WEIGHT (IN LB)

185

195

203 202

210

Start Day 12 Day 19 Day 30

`

Start Day 12 Day 19 Day 30

LIVER ENZYME COUNT (SGPT*)

TOTAL CHOLESTEROL

252290

20

528 230225

165

216

DOING A NUMBER ON HIS BODYBy any measure, 30 days on a McDiet took its toll

* SERUM GLUTAMIC PYRUVIC TRANSAMINASE, AN ENZYME PRESENT IN THE LIVER. ELEVATED LEVELS MAY CAUSE DAMAGE

“We’ve got to make our deadline – or kill our kids,”Sam Palmisano told his PC Team

David Tara

...

. . . . . . .

...

.. . .. .

.

..

. ...

. .. .

..

..

. ... . .

Schedule & Effort TrendsMain Build Trendlines

MB Duration (Months) vs Effective SLOC

0.01 0.1 1 10 100Effective SLOC (thousands)

0.1

1

10

100

MB

Duration (M

onths)

MB Effort (PM) vs Effective SLOC

0.01 0.1 1 10 100Effective SLOC (thousands)

0.01

0.1

1

10

100

1000

MB

Effort (P

M)

Larger projects exhibited faster schedules and higher effort

Small enhancements exhibited longer schedules and lower effort

ALL Sy stems VFS Enhancements QSM 2002 Business Av g. Line Sty le 1 Sigma Line Sty le

Main Build Time vs. Size

1 10 100 1000

Months

1

10

100

SmartMed History QSM Industry Avg 1 Sigma Range

New + Modified Size

960 history20 months

8240 history8.5 months

SmartMedDeadline – 6 months

SmartMed Schedule Target InconsistentWith History Trend

Example - Benchmarking the Deadline vs. History

“Without metrics, you’re just anotherperson with a different opinion.”

Insist on Objective Criteria

“If relying on objective standards applies so clearly to a negotiation between a house owner and a contractor, why not to business deals, collective bargaining, legal settlements, and international negotiations? Why not insist that a negotiated price for example, be based on some standard such as market value, replacement cost, depreciated book value, or competitive prices, instead of what the seller demands? In short, the approach is to commit yourself to reaching a solution based on principle, not pressure.”

- Prof. Roger Fisher, Harvard Law School

Gantt Chart By Sub-Phase<July Baseline Plan>

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16Apr'03

May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan'04

Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

Inception

Elaboration 1

Elaboration 2

Elaboration 3

Construction 1 - Pre-FIT

Construction 2 - FIT

Construction 3 - UAT 1

Construction 4 - UAT 2

Construction 5 - Prod DataLoad

Production Pilot

Post Production

Sub-Phases

1110765320

Avg Staff (people)<Overall September Baseline>

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21Apr'03

Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb'04

Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb'05

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Avg S

taff (people)

1098654310

IN CEPELABCONSTTRANS

Defects Found

6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84 9005/17'03

06/28 08/09 09/20 11/01 12/13 01/24'04

03/06 04/17 05/29 07/10 08/21 10/02 11/13 12/25 02/05'05

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Defects

109876543101098765

Current Plan Actuals Green Control Bound Yellow Control Bound Project: CEP

Defects Found

6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84 9005/17'03

06/28 08/09 09/20 11/01 12/13 01/24'04

03/06 04/17 05/29 07/10 08/21 10/02 11/13 12/25 02/05'05

0

100

200

300

400

500

Defects

109876543101098765

Current Plan Actuals Green Control Bound Yellow Control Bound Project: CEP

Classic Positional Bargaining

Commitment (extreme position)Threat (Alternative)

final offer

final offer

last offer

last offer

Threat (Alternative)

final last offer

final last offer

Commitment (extreme position)

Split the difference deal

Using the 7 Elements*

Interests

BATNA*

Communication

Commitment

Options

Legitimacy

Relationship

If “Yes”If “No”

* Best Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement

“Getting to YES –Negotiating Agreement Without Giving In”, by Fisher, Ury and Patton

A woman without her man is nothing

A woman without her man, is nothing

A woman; without her, man is nothing

1 3 5 7 9

11 13 15 17 19 21 23

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

ESLOC

Weeks from Start

Original Plan

75% of Plan

90% of Plan

110% of Plan

125% of Plan

Expected Size48,000 ESLOC

RecommendedReading

❖ Russell, Peter, “The Global Brain Awakens, Our Next Evolutionary Leap” © 1995 Global Brain Inc.

❖ Fisher, Roger, William Ury and Bruce Patton, “Getting to YES, Negotiating Agreement Without Giving In” Second Edition© 1991 Penguin.

❖ Mah, Michael, “The Making of the Agile IT Executive” Business IT Strategies Advisory Executive Report Vol 6 Number 10.© 2004 Cutter Information Corp.

❖ DeMarco, Tom and Tim Lister “Waltzing With Bears,Managing Risk on Software Projects”© 2003 Dorset House Press.

❖ Putnam, Lawrence H., and Myers, Ware, “Five Core Metrics,The Intelligence Behind Successful Software Management”© 2003 Dorset House Publishers.