new world - pukekohe project no - auckland...

NEW WORLD - PUKEKOHE

RETAIL & LIGHT INDUSTIAL

IMPACT ASSESSMENT

Project No:

Date:

Client:

2

DISCLAIMER

Code Date Information / Comments Project Leader

51632.3 May 2017 Report Tim Heath/ Phil Osborne

SCHEDULE

TABLE OF CONTENTS

3

INTRODUCTION ..................................................................... 5

1.1. KEY RESEARCH OBJECTIVES ............................................. 6

1.2. INFORMATION & DATA SOURCES ...................................... 7

CORE ECONOMIC MARKET ...................................................... 8

DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE ....................................................... 10

POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLD FORECAST ............................. 11

SUPERMARKET RETAILING EXPENDITURE & SUSTAINABLE GFA 13

5.1. RETAIL EXPENDITURE MODEL ......................................... 13

5.2. SUSTAINABLE GFA ........................................................ 15

5.3. FOOD RETAILING EXPENDITURE & CONVENIENCE GFA ...... 15

RETAIL EXPENDITURE FLOWS ............................................... 17

6.1. DESTINATION SPENDING ............................................... 17

6.2. ORIGIN SPENDING ........................................................ 19

6.3. CORE CATCHMENT NET FOOD RETAILING EXPENDITURE

FLOWS ........................................................................ 20

EXISTING RETAIL SUPPLY ..................................................... 23

RETAIL SUPPLY AND DEMAND DIFFERENTIAL .......................... 26

LIGHT INDUSTRIAL ZONED LAND ANALYSIS ........................... 30

LIGHT INDUSTRIAL IN THE CORE CATCHMENT ........................ 33

10.1. EMPLOYMENT AND LAND FORECAST 2016-2033 ........... 34

AUCKLAND UNITARY PLAN CONSIDERATIONS ......................... 37

SUMMARY ........................................................................... 38

APPENDIX 1: PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT PLAN ............................. 40

TABLE OF CONTENTS

4

APPENDIX 2: DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILING ..................................... 41

APPENDIX 3: FOOD RETAILING – ANZSIC06 ................................ 44

APPENDIX 4: PROPERTY ECONOMICS RETAIL EXPENDITURE MODEL

......................................................................................... 46

LIST OF TABLES

TABLE 1: FOOD RETAILING EXPENDITURE AND SUSTAINABLE GFA FORECASTS ............... 16

TABLE 2: PUKEKOHE RETAIL SUPPLY BY SECTOR .......................................................... 23

TABLE 3: PUKEKOHE RETAIL AUDIT JANUARY 2017 ...................................................... 25

TABLE 4: FOOD RETAILING SUPPLY & DEMAND DIFFERENTIAL 2016 – 2033 (SQM) .......... 27

TABLE 5: PUKEKOHE TOWN CENTRE & FRINGES EMPLOYMENT COMPOSITION ................. 28

TABLE 6: CURRENT INDUSTRIAL LAND SUPPLY ACROSS WIDER AREA ............................ 30

TABLE 7: LIGHT INDUSTRIAL ACTIVITY EMPLOYMENT TRENDS (2000 – 2016 ECS) ........... 33

TABLE 8: CORE CATCHMENT LIGHT INDUSTRIAL EMPLOYMENT FORECAST 2016 – 2033 ... 35

LIST OF FIGURES

FIGURE 1: PUKEKOHE FOOD AND GROCERY RETAILING CORE CATCHMENT ....................... 9

FIGURE 2: CORE ECONOMIC MARKET POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS ........ 11

FIGURE 3: CORE CATCHMENT DESTINATION OF FOOD RETAILING EXPENDITURE ............ 18

FIGURE 4: CORE CATCHMENT ORIGIN OF FOOD RETAILING EXPENDITURE ...................... 19

FIGURE 5: CORE CATCHMENT FOOD RETAILING NET EXPENDITURE FLOWS..................... 20

FIGURE 6: FOOD RETAILING NET POSITION BY AREA FOR THE CORE CATCHMENT ........... 21

FIGURE 7: INDUSTRIAL ZONES LAND ACROSS WIDER AREA .......................................... 31

5

INTRODUCTION

6

1.1. KEY RESEARCH OBJECTIVES

7

1.2. INFORMATION & DATA SOURCES

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8

CORE ECONOMIC MARKET

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DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE

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30,850

35,450

40,250

41,550

46,550

51,700

56,900

10,85012,500

14,550

15,10017,200

19,35021,300

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

2003 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033

Pop

ulat

ion

and

Hou

seho

lds

Population Households

POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLD FORECAST

13

Total Retail Spending

Household Spending

Business Spending

Physical Retail Stores

Internet Spending

Visitor Spending

SUPERMARKET RETAILING EXPENDITURE & SUSTAINABLE GFA

5.1. RETAIL EXPENDITURE MODEL

15

5.2. SUSTAINABLE GFA

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5.3. FOOD RETAILING EXPENDITURE & CONVENIENCE GFA

16

Food Retailing 2017 2018 2023 2028 2033

Retail Expenditure ($m) $155 $159 $183 $208 $232

Sustainable GFA (sqm) 19,100 19,700 22,600 25,600 28,600

17

RETAIL EXPENDITURE FLOWS

6.1. DESTINATION SPENDING

18

76%

2%

4%

4%

4%

2%

1%

7%

1%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Catchment

Balance of Franklin District

Manukau City

Papakura District

Auckland City

Balance of Auckland Region

Waikato District

Balance of North Island

South Island

19

49%

24%

7%

5%

4%

3%

2%

5%

1%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Catchment


Manukau City

Papakura District

Auckland City


Waikato District


South Island

6.2. ORIGIN SPENDING

20

-2%

-4%

-4%

-4%

-2%

-1%

-7%

-1%

-24%

37%

11%

7%

6%

5%

4%

8%

1%

78%

-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%


Manukau City

Papakura District

Auckland City


Waikato District


South Island

Net Flows

6.3. CORE CATCHMENT NET FOOD RETAILING EXPENDITURE FLOWS

21

35%

7%

3%

2%

4%

3%

0%

0%

78%

76%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%


Manukau City

Papakura District

Auckland City


Waikato District


South Island

Net Expenditure Inflow

Core Catchment Retention

23

ANZSIC06 RETAIL CLASSIFICAITONS Store # Store % GFA # GFA %

Supermarket 3 1% 12,940 15%

Other Food retailing 31 14% 8,210 9%

Clothing, footwear and personal accessories retailing 37 17% 7,540 9%

Furniture, floor coverings, houseware and textile goods

retailing12 6% 7,090 8%

Electrical and electronic goods retailing 3 1% 1,980 2%

Pharmaceutical and personal care goods retailing 5 2% 880 1%

Department stores 4 2% 23,060 26%

Recreational goods retailing 7 3% 4,590 5%

Other goods retailing 36 17% 11,190 13%

Food and beverage services 59 28% 7,650 9%

Vacant 17 8% 3,190 4%

Total 214 100% 88,320 100%

EXISTING RETAIL SUPPLY

25

0-499 500-999 1000+ Total 0-499 500-999 1000+ Total

Supermarket 0 0 3 3 0 0 12,940 12,940

Other Food retailing 28 3 0 31 5,840 2,370 0 8,210

Clothing, footwear and personal accessories

retailing35 1 1 37 5,570 830 1,140 7,540

Furniture, floor coverings, houseware and textile

goods retailing8 3 1 12 2,070 2,100 2,910 7,090

Electrical and electronic goods retailing 2 0 1 3 640 0 1,340 1,980

Pharmaceutical and personal care goods

retailing5 0 0 5 880 0 0 880

Department stores 0 0 4 4 0 0 23,060 23,060

Recreational goods retailing 3 1 3 7 530 520 3,540 4,590

Other goods retailing 32 2 2 36 6,400 1,630 3,160 11,190

Food and beverage services 59 0 0 59 7,650 0 0 7,650

Vacant 15 2 0 17 2,050 1,140 0 3,190

Total 187 12 15 214 31,630 8,590 48,090 88,320

Total % 87% 6% 7% 100% 36% 10% 54% 100%

ANZSIC06 RETAIL CLASSIFICAITONS

Store Count GFA (sqm)

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RETAIL SUPPLY AND DEMAND DIFFERENTIAL

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29,42130,336

34,899

39,496

44,152

33,93434,989

40,252

45,555

50,925

Current Supply,21,150sqm

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

2017 2018 2023 2028 2033

Gros

s Fl

oor A

rea

(sqm

)

Current Net Position Inflow + Local Sustainable Current Supply

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Pukekohe Town Centre

& Fringes2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Industrial 5% 6% 5% 5% 6% 8%

Retail 33% 30% 29% 29% 31% 32%

Commercial 34% 36% 36% 37% 34% 31%

Other 28% 27% 30% 29% 28% 29%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

30

Light Industrial Zoned LandOccupied Land

Area (ha)

Vacant Land Area

(ha)

Zoned Land Area

(ha)

Paerata 14.2 14.2

Pukekohe North 25.8 2.5 28.3

Pukekohe South 37.4 5.9 43.3

Buckland 2.2 2.2

Pokeno 10.0 24.2 34.2

Total 89.5 32.7 122.1

Other Industrial Zoning

(Within Catchment)

Occupied Land

Area (ha)

Vacant Land Area

(ha)

Zoned Land Area

(ha)

Tuakau N/A N/A 121.6

Pokeno N/A N/A 52.9

Other Industrial Zoning

(Close Proximity)

Occupied Land

Area (ha)

Vacant Land Area

(ha)

Zoned Land Area

(ha)

Drury South N/A N/A 331.5

Waiuku N/A N/A 111.0

Glenbrook N/A N/A 361.2

LIGHT INDUSTRIAL ZONED LAND ANALYSIS

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2000 2006 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

A05 Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing Support Services 195 115 120 101 139 126 94

B10 Exploration and Other Mining Support Services 0 9 0 0 0 0 0

C16 Printing 18 27 18 18 18 18 15

C25 Furniture and Other Manufacturing 137 50 9 12 21 15 21

E30 Building Construction 127 202 166 190 234 267 325

E32 Construction Services 327 501 447 502 557 548 620

F Wholesale Trade 757 783 681 671 741 716 690

I49 Air and Space Transport 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

I51 Postal and Courier Pick-up and Delivery Services 92 25 24 21 21 21 18

I53 Warehousing and Storage Services 3 27 12 27 27 34 45

Total Light Industry 1,656 1,739 1,477 1,542 1,758 1,745 1,828

LIGHT INDUSTRIAL IN THE CORE CATCHMENT

34

10.1. EMPLOYMENT AND LAND FORECAST 2016-2033

35

Light Industrial Activity Growth 2016 - 2033 2016 2033Net Growth

(2016 - 2033)

Light Industrial Employment 1,828 2,667 839

Net Additional Land Requirement (ha) 41.3

•

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TABLE 8: CORE CATCHMENT LIGHT INDUSTRIAL EMPLOYMENT FORECAST 2016 – 2033

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AUCKLAND UNITARY PLAN CONSIDERATIONS

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SUMMARY

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APPENDIX 1: PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT PLAN

41

CORE CATCHMENT FRANKLIN DISTRICT AUCKLAND REGION

Population 39,000 74,850 1,614,600

Households 14,550 27,250 546,000

Person Per Dwelling Ratio 2.68 2.75 2.96

0–4 Years 8% 7% 7%

5–9 Years 8% 8% 7%

10–14 Years 8% 8% 7%

15–19 Years 7% 7% 7%

20–24 Years 6% 5% 8%

25–29 Years 5% 4% 7%

30–34 Years 5% 5% 7%

35–39 Years 7% 6% 7%

40–44 Years 8% 8% 7%

45–49 Years 7% 8% 7%

50–54 Years 7% 8% 7%

55–59 Years 6% 6% 6%

60–64 Years 5% 6% 5%

65 years and Over 13% 14% 12%

$20,000 or Less 8% 8% 10%

$20,001–$30,000 10% 10% 8%

$30,001–$50,000 16% 16% 15%

$50,001–$70,000 13% 13% 13%

$70,001–$100,000 20% 19% 18%

$100,001 or More 32% 34% 36%

$5,000 or Less 14% 14% 18%

$5,001–$10,000 5% 4% 6%

$10,001–$20,000 17% 17% 15%

$20,001–$30,000 13% 13% 12%

$30,001–$50,000 21% 21% 20%

$50,001 or More 30% 31% 29%

European Ethnic Groups 70% 74% 54%

Mäori Ethnic Group 16% 14% 10%

Pacific Peoples' Ethnic Groups 5% 4% 13%

Asian Ethnic Groups 7% 5% 21%

MELAA Ethnic Groups 0% 0% 2%

Other Ethnic Groups 1% 1% 1%

No Qualification 25% 24% 17%

Level 1 Certificate 16% 16% 11%




Level 5 or Level 6 Diploma 9% 9% 9%

Bachelor Degree and Level 7 Qualifications 10% 10% 17%

Postgraduate and Honours Degrees 2% 2% 3%

Masters Degree 1% 1% 4%

Doctorate Degree 0% 0% 1%

Overseas Secondary School Qualification 6% 6% 11%

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APPENDIX 2: DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILING

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Employed - Full Time 51% 52% 49%

Employed - Part Time 14% 14% 13%

Unemployed 5% 4% 5%

Not in Labour Force 30% 29% 33%

Managers 20% 22% 19%

Professionals 18% 17% 26%

Technicians and Trades Workers 14% 14% 11%

Community and Personal Service Workers 8% 8% 9%

Clerical and Administrative Workers 13% 12% 13%

Sales Workers 10% 9% 10%

Machinery Operators and Drivers 7% 7% 5%

Labourers 11% 11% 7%

Full Time 8% 8% 13%

Part Time 4% 3% 4%

Full-time and Part-time Study 0% 0% 0%

Not Studying 88% 89% 83%

Wages, Salary, Commissions, Bonuses etc 70% 70% 73%

Self-employment or Business 23% 28% 24%

Interest, Dividends, Rent, Other Invest. 24% 25% 28%

Payments from a Work Accident Insurer 1% 2% 1%

NZ Superannuation or Veterans Pension 20% 21% 19%

Other Super., Pensions, Annuities 3% 4% 3%

Unemployment Benefit 4% 3% 4%

Sickness Benefit 3% 3% 4%

Domestic Purposes Benefit 5% 5% 5%

Invalids Benefit 2% 2% 2%

Student Allowance 2% 2% 5%

Other Govt Benefits, Payments or Pension 6% 6% 6%

Other Sources of Income 2% 2% 3%

No Source of Income During That Time 0% 0% 1%

Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 9% 12% 1%

Mining 0% 0% 0%

Manufacturing 12% 12% 10%

Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services 1% 1% 1%

Construction 10% 10% 7%

Wholesale Trade 8% 7% 7%

Retail Trade 10% 9% 10%

Accommodation and Food Services 4% 4% 6%

Transport, Postal and Warehousing 5% 5% 5%

Information Media and Telecommunications 1% 1% 3%

Financial and Insurance Services 3% 3% 5%

Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services 3% 3% 3%

Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 7% 7% 12%

Administrative and Support Services 3% 3% 4%

Public Administration and Safety 4% 3% 4%

Education and Training 8% 8% 8%

Health Care and Social Assistance 8% 8% 9%

Arts and Recreation Services 1% 2% 2%

Other Services 4% 4% 4%

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Single 19% 19% 19%

Couple 28% 31% 27%

Single Parent With Children 14% 13% 14%

Two Parent Family 35% 34% 35%

Other Multi-person 3% 3% 5%

1 Residents 19% 19% 18%

2 Residents 33% 35% 30%

3 Residents 18% 17% 18%

4 Residents 17% 17% 18%

5 Residents 8% 7% 8%



8 Plus Residents 1% 1% 2%

Dwelling Owned or Partly Owned 53% 55% 46%

Dwelling Not Owned and Not Held in a Family Trust 33% 29% 39%

Dwelling Held in a Family Trust 14% 15% 15%

0 Years 21% 19% 23%

1–4 Years 32% 30% 31%

5–9 Years 23% 23% 21%

10–14 Years 10% 11% 11%

15–29 Years 10% 12% 11%

30 Years or More 4% 4% 4%

One Bedroom 3% 4% 7%

Two Bedrooms 13% 12% 20%

Three Bedrooms 47% 45% 41%

Four Bedrooms 29% 30% 23%

Five Bedrooms 6% 7% 7%

Six Bedrooms 1% 1% 1%

Seven Bedrooms 0% 0% 0%

Eight or More Bedrooms 0% 0% 0%

Under $100 6% 4% 8%

$100–$149 6% 6% 5%

$150–$199 3% 5% 3%

$200–$249 6% 9% 4%

$250–$299 18% 18% 8%

$300–$349 22% 21% 13%

$350 and Over 39% 37% 59%

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APPENDIX 3: FOOD RETAILING – ANZSIC06

Division G – Retail Trade

Subdivision 41 – Food Retailing

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APPENDIX 4: PROPERTY ECONOMICS RETAIL EXPENDITURE MODEL

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