new utility scale solar: learning from the german market and global … · 2018. 12. 10. · •...

Dec 6, 2018 Dautel Solutions Inc. 8915 80 Ave NW Edmonton, AB T6C 0T6 Canada !

Utility scale Solar: Learning from the German market and Global trends!

SESA, December 6th, 2018


Agenda!

1.  Evolution of Germany‘s renewable energy and solar market

and what can be learned from this

2.  Update on utility scale solar in Germany today!

3.  Overview of the development of world-wide utility scale solar!

!


Why did Germany start the journey towards renewables in 2000?

Sustainability - Keep resources for future generations!!


Why did Germany start the journey towards renewables in 2000?!

Electricity prices by source (Germany/Africa)!

Economically sensible – renewable energy production got more and more competitive (break even with domestic electricity price in 2012) !Source: Volker Quaschning, professor for renewable energy systems at the Berlin University of Appllied Sciences HTW Berlin, spokesman for the renewable energy programme !


The „Energiewende“ increased the renewable power generation tenfold

•  Germany went from 3.4% renewables in gross power generation in 1999 to 36.2% (218 TWh) in 2017 !

•  PV accounted for 38.4 TWh: 43 GW PV installed – 28% of this is utility scale (12 GW)!

Source: Umweltbundesamt (UBA) based on AGEE-Stat, 02/2018 (geothermal energy is included in total)!

Development of power generation from renewable energies in Germany

Hydro


PV installation costs in Germany (CAD/kWp) !

Inverters, racking, installation PV modules

Economics and Successes of the German „Energiewende“!

How: decreasing feed-in-tariff (“take or pay”)!

•  German PV market skyrocketed between 2000 and

2012. Price parity of FIT and electricity rate was reached end of 2012!

•  Germany as major market for solar helped PV panel

pricedrop worldwide – until in 2013 European anti-dumping law fixed panel prices at ≈ 75 ct/W (MIP removed in Sep 2018)!

•  120,000 jobs in PV created in Germany between 2000 and 2012!

•  but: mechanics of German EEG (renewable energy law) resulted in high cost allocation on electricity prices for end customers (8 ct/kWh in 2013 = 20% of total price/kWh) !

Source: Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Energie, Februar 2018; Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems, October 2018 !

German FIT “EEG-Vergütung”

Electricity rate*

105!

90!

75!

60!

45!

30!

15!

7500!

6750!

6000!

5250!

4500!

3750!

3000!

2250!

1500!

750!

0!

18.30!

44.13!


Lessons learned: Market reaction to incentives and political interferences

Market development is highly sensitive to political

interferences (positive as negative):

•  Growth due to decreasing PV panel prices and attractive FIT very quick!

•  Conservative party used high increase of renewable energy contribution to change renewable energy law and reduce FIT drastically in 2012!

•  Market broke down in reaction to reduced FIT combined with tariff on imported solar panels!

PV installations in Germany per year (MWp)

Development of employment in German solar industry

Jobs in Solar industry Jobs in brown coal

Sources: BNetzA, Volker Quaschning !

•  PV installation per year dropped by almost

75% within 2 years

•  80,000 jobs in solar industry were lost due

to political decisions


Main Challange: load distribution with increasing amount of renewables!Germany: a week in July in 2008 (14.5% renewables) !

Source: Volker Quaschning, professor for renewable energy systems at the Berlin University of Appllied Sciences HTW Berlin, spokesman for the renewable energy programme !

mid-load and peak-load

hydro


Brown coal (base-load)

Nuclear power (base-load) Brown coal

Nuclear


Main Challange: load distribution with increasing amount of renewables!Germany: a week in July in 2020 (49% renewables) – forecast of BEE in 2009 !!

Source: Volker Quaschning, BEE (Bundesverband Erneuerbare Energien e.V.)!

mid-load and peak-load mid-load and peak-load

hydro



How can a 100% renewable energy mix work?Fluctuating renewable energy production

Controllable renewable energy production

Consumer Central steering

Innovative storage

Supraregional balance

Source: Volker Quaschning!


Agenda!

1.  Evolution of Germany‘s renewable energy and solar market and what can be learned from this!

2.  Update on utility scale solar in Germany today

3.  Overview of the development of world-wide utility scale solar!

!


In Germany utility scale systems face more constraints than roof-top systems !

Source: BNetzA, BSW-Solar; 1/2018!

Annual PV installations in Germany by system size Governmental constraints on utility scale PV

are significantly higher than on roo#op PV

•  Zones where utility scale PV can be build are highly regulated by government!

•  Since 2015 bidding procedure for 750kW to 10MW in place: only systems that win tender receive funds under renewable energy law!

•  3 bidding rounds each year, volume of each 200 MW à limits annual addition of utility scale PV under funding to 600 MW/year!

•  Pricing by pay-as-bid method. Uniform pricing has been tried out but was dropped.!

Utility scale systems account for only ≈ 28% of the total PV installations in

Germany


Tendering procedure has resulted in competitive pricing of utiltiy scale PV !

Utility scale solar revenue streams in Germany:

•  Until 2015 utility scale PV got a FIT (lower than rooftop systems)!

•  With bidding process prices decreased from avg. 13.76 ct/kWh to avg. 6.50 ct/kWh and is now below onshore wind (6.90 ct/kWh)!

•  Currently rock bottom for Germany seems to be ≈ 6 ct/kWh with system yields below 1,100 kWh/kWp. In countries with very high solar yield like Saudi-Arabia prices are as low as 2.5 ct/kWh!

•  Realisation rate of 94 % shows utility scale PV still pays off at these prices!

•  Starting in 2018, first PPAs between utilities or industrial consumers and solar power providers create new growth independently of governmental funding!

Source: BNetzA, market research !

Utility scale solar is now fully

competitive in the electricity market

Solar revenue from renewable energy law in Germany

60!

45!

30!

15!

ct/kWh!

2010! 2012! 2014! 2016! 2018!

PV rooftop small!PV rooftop large + until 2015 ground mounted!

PV ground mounted avg. tender price!

Electricity price RES customer!

Electricity price SME commercial customer!


Agenda!

1.  Evolution of Germany‘s renewable energy and solar market and what can be learned from this!

2.  Update on utility scale solar in Germany today!

3.  Overview of the development of world-wide utility scale solar

!


Relevance of utility scale solar is growing worldwide as prices decrease!

è Global annual growth rates > 30% each year

Top 10 countries in 2017

by solar installations!

0!

100!

200!

300!

400!

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

China Germany Great Britain Italy Japan Canada USA Rest of World

Development of Solar installations worldwide!

Globally 403 GW of Solar

installed in 2017

Canada: 2.9 GW!

28% !Germany

40%!

Japan

67%!

USA

73% !

China

74% !

Great Britain

> 80%!

RoW

è Share of large scale solar: ! by installed solar capacity!

GW!


Financial revenue streams are moving away from rebates and FIT!

•  Main driver for fast development of solar markets within the last 15 years were governmental incentives (FIT, rebates, net metering)!

•  Governmental incentives shift more and more towards tendering procedures!

•  While incentives in the mature markets get lower and lower, free market mechanisms such as PPAs with industrial consumers and electricity retailing become more and more significant:!•  Corporate PPAs: direct contract with a corporate entity

for procurement of electricity at a competitive rate, carbon offset credits can be included or sold separately to carbon emitters!

•  PPAs with Local Distribution Grid Operators

(municipal governments and/or their public utilities)!

!

!

As system costs decrease

revenue streams can shi#

more and more towards

electricity retailing


System costs vary significantly and are driven by construction and panels!Worldwide development of costs for solar:

•  PV panel price globally dropped down to as low as 30 ct/Wp in 2018!

•  In Germany 5−10MW ground mounted solar systems can be installed for 75 ct/Wp (excl. grid connection)!

è  Alberta is currently at around 145 ct/Wp !

in ct/W! Alberta Germany

380W modules! 46 ct! 30 ct!

100kW string inverters! 6 ct! 4 ct!

Racking 30° tilt! 15 ct! 10 ct!

AC/DC cabling! 2 ct! 2 ct!

AC/DC construction incl. pile driving ! 40 ct! 15 ct!

Transformer LT-MT! 10 ct! 7 ct!

margin! 26 ct! 7 ct!

Price for customer 145 ct 75 ct

EU spot market panel prices (by technology in CAD)!

Alberta EPCs can optimize via: !

•  Engineering: e.g. Modular layout in 2.5MW blocks!

•  International procurement of components (certification?)!

•  Installation: efficient construction site management (German EPC can build 5 MW in 3 weeks)!

0.75!

0.68!

0.60!

0.53!

0.45!

0.38!

0.30!

0.,23!


Worldwide technology trends: East-west orientation for a better demand fit!

South facing

East-west facing

South facing array East-west facing

array


Worldwide technology trends: bifacial panels increase yield by up to 25%!Bifacial panels

Mono-facial panels


Worldwide technology trends: tracking can boost yield by up to 45%!No tracking

Single axis

Dual axis


Worldwide technology trends: steel and aluminium mostly used for racking!Steel

Aluminium

Wood


Worldwide technology trends: mobile solutions are entering the market!

MSP: mobile solar power

Solar sea can (NAIT project) Floating solar

Dautel Solutions Inc. 8915 80 Ave NW Edmonton, AB T6C 0T6 Canada !


STEPHAN DAUTEL!

Facts

•  Master of science in physics, MBA in International Marketing

•  Languages: German, English, Spanish, Italian

•  Married, 3 children

Work Experience

•  18 years of PV experience in Europe, USA and Africa

•  Thereof 10 years owner and CEO of futurasol GmbH: 22 million CAD turnover in 2010, 25 employees

•  Largest projects: 1.7 MWp rooftop, 1.4 MWp ground mounted

•  50 MWp project development in Mali (Africa)

•  Director of Dautel Solutions Inc., Edmonton, Alberta, Canada

Personal Strength

•  Experience in PV sales, engineering, project management, project financing

•  18 years in start up management positions, rewarded with Top 3 at “Bayerischer Gründerpreis” (Bavarian start up award) in 2008

•  Motivated and target oriented team player

•  Reliable partner


ANNETTE DAUTEL !

Facts

•  Master in Business Studies / Economics

•  Languages: German and English fluent

•  Married, 2 children

Work Experience

•  Ten years in business consulting with focus on customer related and strategic topics for companies of all sizes

•  Seven years with Germany’s largest Utility Company E.ON (as consultant and employee) with focus on end customer business including setting up the PV business for all project sizes and customer groups

•  Management and Leadership experience in different positions in consultancy and industry

Personal Strength

•  Excellent skills in strategic planning, project setup and project management

•  Expertise in customer management and customer service topics including NPS (NetPromoter Certified Associate)

•  Expertise in energy sector and PV business

•  Team Player with Management and Leadership qualities

•  Highly motivated and target oriented

new utility scale solar: learning from the german market and global … · 2018. 12. 10. · •...

Documents