New Themes for Analysing Neo-

Carbon Society 2050

Sirkka Heinonen, Juho Ruotsalainen, Marjukka Parkkinen, Joni Karjalainen

Finland Futures Research Centre, University of TurkuWP1 Neo-Carbon Enabling Neo-Growth Society – Transformative Energy Futures 2050

6th Researchers' SeminarNeo-Carbon Energy Project

LUT, Lappeenranta 29th - 30th August 2016

UTU/FFRC:

Sirkka Heinonen (WP Leader)

Joni Karjalainen

Juho Ruotsalainen

Marjukka Parkkinen

Merja Lang

Sakari Nisula

VTT:

Tiina Koljonen

Lassi Similä

Juha Forsström

LUT:

Jarmo Partanen

Samuli Honkapuro

WP1

WP1 creates

the big picture: How could

the neo-carbon energy

system transform society

by 2050?

Probe the societal

ecosystem and social

relations of neo-carbon

powered futures to provide a

societal and business

vision.

Anticipate such futures with

tentative product, service

and social innovations.

New opportunities and

perspectives for citizens,

decision-makers and

businesses.

New, refined tasks based on work so far:

Task 1.1

Neo-carbon energy vision

Task 1.2

Neo-carbon powered social futures 2050

Task 1.3

Neo-carbon energy market & game-changing

actors (VTT & LUT)

Task 1.4

Opportunities for Finnish businesses

emerging through case countries

OUTCOMES

Breyer, C., Heinonen, S. & Ruotsalainen, J. (2016). New consciousness: A societal

and energetic vision for rebalancing humankind within the limits of planet Earth.

Technological Forecasting and Social Change. Article in press.

- To show how a 100% renewable energy system

could be realised

- To show how the development of ICTs, together with

distributed, clean and cheap energy, could lead to

shared consciousnesses and identities by 2050

- To indicate how this ”new consciousness” could aid

in achieving sustainable lifestyles, and stimulate new

economic growth and societal progress

Article

The workshop groups anticipated the futures of

work in peer-to-peer, neo-carbon society of the

future.

The results have been documented and

analysed, and the report will be published

soon.

Futures Clinique II:

The Fuzzy Futures of

Neo-Carbon Work (April 2016)

The results of the futures clinique point to a “post-

work” future of a neo-carbon society, where work

as a separate sphere in society has more or less

withered away.

Automated, neo-carbon powered workplaces

could transform as communities found today

outside the economic sector. As a consequence,

the economic life would be defined and driven

partly by other than economic goals and values –

moral, cultural, aesthetic, and social.

Futures Clinique II:

The Fuzzy Futures of

Neo-Carbon Work (April 2016)

An article ”Ruotsalainen et al. (2016). Peer-to-

peer work in the digital meaning society 2050”has also been written based on the futures

clinique results.

The article is submitted to European Journal of

Futures Research (EJFR).

The futures clinique results

inspired new themes for the Neo-

Carbon Vision

Abundance

Neo-Carbon promises material abundance (cheap, abundant and decentralised energy, and synthetic

materials).

What are the social implications of

abundance?

How will companies transform in such a

future?

Will new forms of immaterial inequality arise?

Artificial intelligence and robotisation

If AIs and robots are embedded everywhere

in our environments, cheap and clean

energy are needed.

If Neo-Carbon enables ubiquitous AIs and

robots, what will the social implications be?

International Symposium

”Clean Disruption for Abundant Futures”

7th-8th June 2016 Kiasma, Helsinki

Two-day Futures Clinique III on the topics of

energy, internet, clean disruption and futures

of communities.

The objective was to address possible futures

and related societal transition towards the

convergence of energy and internet.

29.8.2016

Keynote speakers

José Cordeiro

Clean Disruption

EnerNet and

Energularity

Sirkka Heinonen

What is Disruption?

How to use

futures methods?

Christian Breyer

How to reach 100%

renewable energy

system?

Pasi Vainikka

Ten Worst Ideas

in Energy Future

Markku Wilenius

What is self-

organising work?

International Symposium

”Clean Disruption for Abundant Futures”

7th-8th June 2016 Kiasma, Helsinki

The event was also a Summer School for

doctoral and master’s students of futures

studies and other related disciplines.

José Cordeiro from the Singularity University

gave two keynote speaks on the internet of

energy and “energularity”.

The results will be documented

and published as a report

Futures Images of Group Work

at ”Clean Disruption for Abundant

Futures” 7th-8th June 2016Kiasma, Helsinki

The results will be documented and

published as a report

Society On-demand

Ethical Optimization

Storytellers & Plastic

Smiths

Not Sharing My Headache

Meaningful Living

New Entrepreneurial

Lifestyle

Business and Science: Leading the Way to Sustainable Energy

2nd Stakeholder Forum of the Africa-EU Energy Partnership

16-17 May 2016 | Milan, Italy

http://www.iisd.ca/energy/aeep/forum2/

http://www.aeep-forum.org/en/youth/young-scientists-and-entrepreneurs

Submitted paper: Using Deliberative Foresight to envision a Neo-Carbon Energy Innovation Ecosystem – Case Kenya

Evaluating Renewable Energy

Approaches and Business Models

• Idea: It is possible to compare renewable energy approaches (e.g. business models or projects)

• Data: Four cases were selected based on their societal significance

• Objective: To understand what is actually lasting and transformative change? What differences in impacts do innovation, projects or collaborations have and why?

Evaluating Renewable Energy

Approaches and Business Models

(Submitted paper)

2p Excellent (max.) – 1.5p Very good – 1.0p Moderate – 0.5p Poor – 0p Dissatisfactory (min.)

NB. Selected cases fromKenya represent realized approaches (moreinnovative ones may already be on their way)

Case

M-Kopa Solar

in Kenya

http://www.m-kopa.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/MkopaIII_Aug14_278.jpg

6.0 / 8.0 points

Deliberative

foresight

1.5 / 2.0 p

Transformative

potential

2.0 / 2.0 p

Innovation

ecosystem

1.0 / 2.0 p

Sustainability

1.5 / 2.0 p

+ Corporate

foresight

+ Design thinking

+ Testing model

with feedback

+ User needs

+ Affordability

+ Household RE

& decentral. ICT

+ Low-income

groups

+ High impact

+”Green”

business models

linkages

+ Competitions

+ Environm. CO2

+ Social

+ Economic

? Cultural

NEXT STEPS

An article on how changes in energy systems

relate to social and cultural changes –

literature survey

• Link open 21st July

until 8th August

• Millennium Project

and other experts

from case countries

invited

• Ongoing analysis

Expert survey on the Neo-Carbon

Scenarios 2050

• Questions on who are the changemakers

• Which scenarios are probable, preferable

• Sample questions:

• What would need to change in your country for

radical startups to flourish?

• How can society support these DIY engineers?

EXPERT SURVEY AS

INTERNATIONAL QUESTIONNAIRE

• Energising peer-to-peer urban futures – Challenges for urban

governance (Heinonen, Parkkinen, Karjalainen, Ruotsalainen):

abstract for oral presentation and full paper submitted

• Four themes:

1) Economically competitive urban futures

2) Sustainable and resilient urban futures

3) Equitable and inclusive urban societies

4) Digitally supported urban futures

• Topics related to energy: energy sources/demand/management,

energy poverty, energy security, regulation of energy, smart energy …

• 16 keynotes, incl.:• Herbert Girardet: Towards the Regenerative City

• Christoph Reinhart: Urban energy systems – Towards more

sustainable city and neighborhood design

URBAN TRANSITIONS GLOBAL SUMMIT SHANGHAI 5–9.9.2016

• WP1 2nd term:

• Societal vision (Task 1.1)

• Social implications of energy and changemakers (1.2)

• Scenario feedback and case country opportunities (1.4)

• Forthcoming articles:

• Energy futures and social change, energy innovation

ecosystem, peer-to-peer work in a RE world

• Abundance, artificial intelligence (AI) and robotisation as

emerging topics

• International Dissemination – Case Chile• Neo-Carbon Futures Clinique 24 October 2016, Santiago, Chile

• Consejo Foresight Conference 26-27 October 2016, Santiago, Chile

SUMMARY

Take note:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-19/solar-sells-in-chile-for-

cheapest-ever-at-half-the-price-of-coal

THANK YOU!WP 1

Finland Futures Research Centre FFRC team

sirkka.heinonen@utu.fi

joni.karjalainen@utu.fi

juho.ruotsalainen@utu.fi

marjukka.s.parkkinen@utu.fi

NEW PUBLICATION

Breyer C, Heinonen S and Ruotsalainen J (2016). New consciousness:

A societal and energetic vision for rebalancing humankind within the

limits of planet earth, Technological Forecasting and Social Change

(Article in Press)

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2016.06.029

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S004016251630138X