new frontiers in environmental science and engineering for ... · 1 january 8, 2016 minh le, senior...
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January 8, 2016
Minh Le, Senior Advisor, OMB
New Frontiers in Environmental Science and Engineering for Climate Adaptation:
Applying MoonShot Thinking
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http://www.nasa.gov/images/content/136063main_bm4_high.jpg
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SunShotInitiative
75% cost reduction by 2020
Pri
ceSunShot Goal
3
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MAJOR PROGRESS20GW 4,000,000
average American homes
At the end of 2014…
Enough to power
Solar accounted for
32% of all new electrical generation capacity installed in 2014.
8,000solar businesses
$17.8 billion: Value of the U.S. solar market
in 2014
SunShot: Growing Capacity & Economic Impact
5
50% Solar systems costs are down
50% Since 2010
U.S. SOLAR JOBS HAVE INCREASED
86% SINCE 2010
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6http://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/1-bluemarble_west.jpg
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Mean global temperature rising
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ENERGY IS TO MITIGATION AS WATER IS TO ADAPTATION
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Climate Change & Water Supply
Source, Water Resources Chapter, 2014 National Climate Assessment, U.S. Global Change Research Program, nca2014.globalchange.gov
Extreme, Variable Precipitation
Changing Snowmelt
Intensifying DroughtCompromised Coastal
Aquifers
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EWC13
Nature’s Timely Reminder!
• California drought is cited as the worst recorded in 1200 years*
* "How unusual is the 2012–2014 California drought?," Geophysical Research Letters, Daniel
Griffin and Kevin J. Anchukaitis, December 2014.
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Groundwater Depletion
in the U.S., 1900-2008
(in km3)
• Cumulative depletion from 40 major
aquifer systems
• Results from Konikow, 2013
• Total depletion about 1000 km3
• About twice the volume of Lake Erie
• Largest volumes from High Plains,
Mississippi Embayment, and Central
Valley aquifers
• 25% increase from 2000 – 2008
• Measureable contribution to sea level
rise
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EWC15
And the Flip Side – Too Much of a Good Thing!
Over four days in 2014 (Aug. 8-11) 70,000+ U.S. structures were damaged in the Midwest, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic.*
The number of flooding days in the U.S. has increased markedly since the middle of last century, by as much as 925 percent in Annapolis and 922 percent in Baltimore.**
* Global Catastrophe Recap, Aon Benfield, September 2014.** "‘Nuisance flooding’ an increasing problem as coastal sea levels rise," NOAA, July 2014.
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Sea Level is Rising
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Sea Level Rise from satellite altimetry
(TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1 and Jason-2)
estimated by CNES, LEGOS and CLS.
http://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/newsroom/featurearchive/index.cfm?FuseAction=ShowNews&NewsID=506
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Security of the Nation’s freshwater supply is threatened
Climate change, acting concurrently with population growth, land use, energy use, and socioeconomic changes, increases water demand and exacerbates competition among uses and users of water.
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Challenge 1:
Improve water use efficiency by 33%
– 16% leaks in public water systems
– US per capita water footprint is more than 2X higher than many other industrialized countries
– Agricultural practices and technology can further improve water productivity
– Energy sector has been moving away from once through cooling over the past 50 years
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Challenge 2:
Deliver cost competitive clean water from non-traditional sources such as seawater, brackish water, and municipal reclaimed water
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20
“If we could ever competitively, at a
cheap rate, get fresh water from salt
water this would be in the long-
range interests of humanity and
would dwarf any other scientific
accomplishments.”
--John F. Kennedy, 1962
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EWC
Desalination S&T Challenge
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EWC
Seawater Desalination Challenge
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EWC
What are the technology pathways that get us there?
$0.50/m3 Goal for Seawater Desalination
$2.00 /m3
$0.50 /m3
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http://www.nasa.gov/images/content/136063main_bm4_high.jpg
We came all this way to explore the moon, and the most important thing that we discovered was the earth.
- William Anders (Apollo 8)