new delhi. outline background and brief introduction climate change impacts in nepal water sector...
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New Delhi
Outline• Background and Brief Introduction• Climate change Impacts in Nepal• Water Sector Strategy and Water Resources
Policy of Nepal• Climate Change Adaptation policies• Summary
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Introduction Nepal• Landlocked country with
land area of 147000 sq. kms and population of 30 million.
• Physiography: Plains, Siwalik, Middle Mountains, High Mountains and High Himalayas
• Administrative 75 Districts and 5 Development Regions
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Water Resource Systems• More than 6000 rivers and rivulets• Estimated annual runoff about 200 billion cubic
meters– The average annual rainfall over Nepal is about 1700
mm. – Monsoon (June to September) brings about 80% of the
annual rainfall in four months.
• Surface runoff comprises 45% of average annual flow of Ganges and around 70% of the Ganges' dry season flow.
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Major Weather Systems
• Northern limit Of the Tropics. • Southern lap of the Himalayas
• Mountainous country
• Topographically complex
• Affected by monsoon In summer and western disturbances in winter
(Source: Baidya, DHM)
26º 22' N - 30º 27' N Lat. 80º 4'E - 88º 12'E Long.
0 200 400100 Kilometers
India
China
IranPakistan
Myanmar
Thailand
Afghanistan
Laos
Nepal
Cambodia
Bangladesh
Oman
Bhutan
Sri Lanka
Turkmenistan
Malaysia
0 130 26065 Kilometers
Summer Monsoon
Western disturbances
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Variability across time and space• About 250 billion cubic meters of waters fall over Nepal
annually as precipitation (Climatic and Hydrological Atlas of Nepal, 1996) – About 200 billion cubic meters drains out of Nepal annually. – About 150 billion cubic meters (monsoon season).– About 50 billion cubic meters ( winter -October to May) (February and April/
May are the driest months.)
• Rainfall varies from 2500mm –east, about 1470 mm -KTM1000 mm in the western Nepal(amount of rainfall generally declines from east to west0
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Climate Change: Nepal• Temperature• Precipitation• Himalayan Glaciers
777
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Annual Mean Temperature Trend2
y = 0.039x + 19.335R = 0.5973
18.0
18.5
19.0
19.5
20.0
20.5
21.01
97
5
19
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20
05
Year
Te
mp
era
ture
(°C
)
• All Nepal Temperature is increasing steadily.
• 1.7°C increase between 1975 and 2005
Temperature Trend (Baidya, DHM)
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Inter-annual variation of annual mean temperature
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
Y ear
Sta
ndar
dize
d an
omal
y
Temperature variation
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Number of days with rain >= 100 mm
19771992, 35
1987, 106 19981975
1982
y = 0.5997x + 61.417
R2 = 0.0984
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
19
71
19
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19
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Year
Da
ys
Increase in frequency of heavy rainfall events (> 100 mm/day)
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Observed Climate Change Impact (source: DHM)
Rainfall• Total rainfall and heavy rainfall events are increasing
• Maximum 24 hour rainfall is also increasing Temperature
Days and nights are both becoming warmer. Warm spell duration (Long hot days) is increasing Cool nights and cool days are becoming less frequent
Extreme Hydro-climatic Events
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Observed Climate Change ImpactCryosphore studies in Nepal
• Glaciers of Nepal Himalayas are retreating – Glacier lakes are forming and expanding– Higher chances of GLOF
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X010 Glacier retreating at the rate of 10 meter per year (Source: GEN/DHM)
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How Fast They Are Shrinking?How Fast They Are Shrinking?• Faster than the other glaciersFaster than the other glaciers• Faster than the previous estimateFaster than the previous estimate
Dyurgerov [2002]; Fujita et al. [1997, JG; 1998; BGR; 2001, BGR]
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Warmer Future
Model output from PRECIS run at IITM,
India
Temperature Change ProjectionFor Late 21st Century
Climate Change ProjectionClimate Change Projection
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Wetter Future
Model output from PRECIS run at IITM,
India
Change in Annual Rainfall
Up to 30% increase
Climate Change Projection- Late 21st Century(Karmacharya, DHM)
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Wetter Summer
Drier Winter
Change in Seasonal Rainfall
Climate Change Projection- Late 21st Century(Karmacharya, DHM)
Model output from PRECIS run at IITM,
India
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The changing scenario demands• That a robust policy both for water resources
development and climate change adaptation is put in place– Especially because the climate change adaptation
is perceived as the water-related approach!
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Water Resources Strategy• Approved by government in 2002
– National goal: “living conditions of Nepali people are significantly improved in a sustainable manner through the utilization of water resources in the country”
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Phased intervention• Short-term (2002-07): Tangible benefit s to
the people of Nepal to achieve sustainability in basic needs fulfilment
• Medium-term (2007-17): Substantial benefit to the people
• Long-term (2017-27): Benefits accrued till the end of medium tem to be maximized in sustainable manner
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Ten Strategic Outputs of WRS• Water Security:
– Measures to manage and mitigate water induced disasters.– Management of watersheds and aquatic eco-systems.
• Water Use:– Adequate supply of and access to potable water and sanitation
and hygiene awareness.– Appropriate and efficient irrigation is made available.– Cost effective hydropower is developed in a sustainable manner.– Economic uses of water by industries and water bodies by
tourism, fisheries and navigation are optimized.
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Remaining 4 can be grouped under mechanism
• Enhanced water related information systems.
• Appropriate legal frameworks.• Regional cooperation for substantial mutual
benefits.• Appropriate institutional mechanisms for
water sector management.
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National Water Plan(2002-27)• Approved in 2005• Prepared to operationalize the Water Resources
Strategy.• Doctrine of NWP: Integration, Coordination,
Decentralization, Popular Participation within good governance and equitable distribution;
• IWRM as one of the principal themes.• Essentially promulgated to keep the promise made
at the Rio+10 meeting in Jo’berg
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Institutions in Water Sector:• Planning, Policy and Coordinating
– National Planning Commission– National Water Resources Development Council– Water and Energy Commission– Environment Protection Council– Ministry of Energy– Ministry of Irrigation– Ministry of Physical Planning and Works– Ministry of Environment, – Ministry of Local Development– Ministry of Forest and Soil Conservation
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Implementing Agencies• Department of Irrigation• Groundwater Resources Development Board• Department of Hydrology and Meteorology• Department of Electricity Development• Department of Water Supply and Sewerage• Department of Local infrastructure Development and
Agriculture Roads• Nepal Electricity Authority• Nepal Water Supply Corporation• Kathmandu Valley Water Supply Management Board
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IWRM and River Basin Concept:• Water and Energy Commission Secretariat
(WECS) to be transformed to WEC• WEC as Apex Level institution in Water Sector• WEC members in Consultative and Advisory
Committee• Establishment of River Basin Management
Offices(RMBO):– Koshi, Narayani and Karnali– RBMO to be responsible for allocating waters
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Legislation• Water Resources Act and Regulation (1992)
– Umbrella legislation for hydropower, Irrigation, drinking water and other water use
– Electricity Act and Regulation (1992)• Legislation of Power sector emphasizing Hydropower
– Regulations under Water Resources Act• Drinking Water Supply Regulation and Irrigation Regulation
• Nepal Water Supply Corporation Act, 1989• Water Supply Management Board Act, 2007.• Environmental Protection Act, 1996
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Other Policy Frameworks • National Water Supply and Sanitation Policy,
1998• Rural water Supply and Sanitation sector strategy
and action Plan, 2004• National Sanitation Policy 1994• Kathmandu Valley Strategy on Water Supply and
Sanitation• Irrigation Policy 2003• Hydropower Policy 1994
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Water Management and Regulatory Agencies• Water and Energy Commission Secretariat (WECS).• Ministry of Energy (Hydro-electricity), • Ministry of Irrigation,• Ministry of Physical Planning and Works (Drinking water), • Nepal Water Supply Corporation.• Kathmandu Valley Water Supply Management Board.• Water Tariff Fixation Commission.• District Water Resources Committees.• Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Fund Development Board
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ADAPTATION“Adjustments in human and natural systems, in response to actual or expected climate stimuli or their effects, that moderate harm or exploit beneficial opportunities”.(IPCC, 2001)
• Consist of multitude of behavioral, structural and technological adjustments
• Adaptation measures vary in timing, scope, purposefulness and adaptive agent
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Adaptation – 4 ‘i’s• Information for effective planning
• Infrastructure for climate proofing
• Insurance for social risk management & poverty
• Institutions for disaster risk management
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Adaptation within International Negotiations
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
Kyoto Protocol Conference of Parties (CoP) Nairobi Work Program on Impacts,
Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change
Bali Action Plan (Bali Road Map) Cancun Adaptation Framework (CAF)
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National Plan and Policies Three-year plan (2010 – 2012) Climate Change National Policy 2011 National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA)
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Three-year Plan (2010 – 2012)• Objective
– make development activities climate friendly– mitigate adverse impacts of climate change – promote adaptation
• Strategy– conduct study on climate change– make meteorological forecast more reliable
• Responsible agency– Ministry of Environment (MoE)
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Climate Change National Policy• Initiate implementation of the community based
adaptation programs as prioritized in NAPA by 2012
• Seven points:1. Minimize climate induced disasters and risks2. Climate resilience3. Access to and utilization of financial resources4. Capacity building, community participation and
empowerment5. Study and research6. Technology development, handover and use7. Climate friendly management of natural resources
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• Identified key adaptation needs in– Agriculture and food security– Water resources and energy– Climate induced disasters– Forests and biodiversity– Public health– Urban settlements and infrastructure
National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA)
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To sum up• The climate change impact is already being felt in
Nepal– Science and Research
• Science that studies the impact &/or predicts the trend is still in its infancy (and is also poorly funded)
• Research are thematic and done for academic purposes & don’t have feedback loops into policy/normative framework
• Advancement of operational forecasting and seasonal prediction including severe weather warning
• End users are not fully aware of it so not able to use the information
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To sum up• Outreach
– efforts are few and far between
• Capacity building – inconsistent with requirement– Funding available is inconsistent
• There is a serious problem with the knowledge management– Data generation and data sharing– Lacks even simple website that informs about water
resource sector of Nepal
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To sum up• The goals of water resources management is far from
achieved (as of 2011):– About 80% population has access to safe (?) drinking water (50%
of the institutionally supplied water is unsafe for human consumption without treatment)
– 63% of the arable land is deprived of irrigation– Only 1% of the total hydropower potentiality of 43000 MW has
yet been tapped– 29% of all diseases-linked deaths are due to water borne diseases – 43% of property losses are due to water-induced disasters
