nevada cd02 special election survey presentation
TRANSCRIPT
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8/6/2019 Nevada CD02 Special Election Survey Presentation
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NevadaCongressionalDistrictTwo
SpecialElectionSurvey
August15th 16th,2011
DavidFlaherty
CEO
1MagellanDataandMappingStrategies|www.MagellanStrategies.com|3038618585
Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies are
pleased to present the results of a 656N
autodial survey of likely general election
voters in Nevadas second congressional
district. The interviewing was conductedAugust 15th August 16th, 2011. This survey has
a margin of error of +/ 3.82% at the 95
percent confidence interval.
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PollingRegions
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VoterFrequency
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HowlikelyareyoutovoteintheSeptember
specialelectionforCongress?
ExtremelyLikely VeryLikelySomewhatLikely
88%
7% 5%
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MarshallImageRating
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FavorableUnfavorable
NoOpinionNVR/HRD
33%
43%
16%
8%
NameID:92%
Doyouhaveafavorableorunfavorableopinion
ofKateMarshall?
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TOTALMen
Women
33%
35% 31%
43% 45%42%
16% 13%19%
8% 7% 8%
Favorable
Unfavorable
NoOpinion
NVR/HRD
Doyouhaveafavorableorunfavorableopinion
ofKateMarshall?(ByGender)
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TOTAL 18-3435-44
45-5455-64
65+
33%
11% 24%37% 38%
34%
43%
62%47%
40% 38%43%
16%11% 21%
17%15% 17%
8%16% 8% 6% 9% 6%
Favorable
Unfavorable
NoOpinion
NVR/HRD
Doyouhaveafavorableorunfavorableopinion
ofKateMarshall?(ByAge)
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TOTALRepublican
DemocratIndependent
33%
9%
66%
23%
43%
65%
14%
46%
16%17% 13%
27%
8% 9% 7% 4%
Favorable
Unfavorable
NoOpinion
NVR/HRD
Doyouhaveafavorableorunfavorableopinion
ofKateMarshall?(ByParty)
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TOTALWashoe
Central WestRural
33% 36%
31%27%
43% 46%
50%
30%
16%15% 14%
22%
8% 3% 5%
21%Favorable
Unfavorable
NoOpinion
NVR/HRD
Doyouhaveafavorableorunfavorableopinion
ofKateMarshall?(ByRegion)
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Amodei ImageRating
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FavorableUnfavorable
NoOpinionNVR/HRD
38%36%
19%
7%
NameID:93%
Doyouhaveafavorableorunfavorableopinion
ofMarkAmodei?
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TOTALMen
Women
38%40%
36%
36% 38%
35%
19% 16%22%
7% 6% 7%
Favorable
Unfavorable
NoOpinion
NVR/HRD
Doyouhaveafavorableorunfavorableopinion
ofMarkAmodei?(ByGender)
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TOTAL18-34
35-4445-54
55-6465+
38% 46% 43%36%
34% 38%
36% 20% 30%40%
40% 38%
19%
18%
23% 19%20% 17%
7%16%
4% 5%6% 7%
Favorable
Unfavorable
NoOpinion
NVR/HRD
Doyouhaveafavorableorunfavorableopinion
ofMarkAmodei?(ByAge)
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TOTALRepublican
DemocratIndependent
38%62%
11% 27%
36%
11%
69%36%
19% 20% 13%
33%
7% 7% 7% 4%
Favorable
Unfavorable
NoOpinion
NVR/HRD
Doyouhaveafavorableorunfavorableopinion
ofMarkAmodei?(ByParty)
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Doyouhaveafavorableorunfavorableopinion
ofMarkAmodei?(ByRegion)
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TOTALWashoe
Central WestRural
38% 39% 51%
22%
36% 42%32%
28%
19%17% 14%
28%
7% 2% 3%
22%Favorable
Unfavorable
NoOpinion
NVR/HRD
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ObamaApprovalRating
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Approve
Disapprove
NoOpinion
32%
63%
5%
DoyouapproveordisapproveofthejobBarack
ObamaisdoingasPresident?
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TOTAL
Men
Women
32%32%
33%
63%64%
61%
5%4%
6%
Approve
Disapprove
NoOpinion
DoyouapproveordisapproveofthejobBarack
ObamaisdoingasPresident?(ByGender)
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TOTAL18-34
35-4445-54
55-6465+
32%
27%
20% 3
0%
36%
3
6%
63% 7
3%
78%
65%
57%
58%
5%
2%
5%
7%
6%
Approve
Disapprove
NoOpinion
DoyouapproveordisapproveofthejobBarack
ObamaisdoingasPresident?(ByAge)
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TOTALRepublican
Democrat
Independent
32%
6%
69%
24%
63%
91%
25
%
67%
5%3%
6%
9%
ApproveDisapproveNoOpinion
DoyouapproveordisapproveofthejobBarack
ObamaisdoingasPresident?(ByParty)
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TOTAL
Washoe
Central WestRural
32%
36%
27% 31%
63%
60%
67%
63%
5%4%
6%6%
Approve
Disapprove
NoOpinion
DoyouapproveordisapproveofthejobBarack
ObamaisdoingasPresident?(ByRegion)
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BallotTest
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Amodei Marshall FasanoLehmann Undecided
48%
35%
4% 2% 11%
IftheelectionforCongresswasbeingheldtoday,forwhom
wouldyouvoteifthecandidateswereKateMarshall,Democrat,MarkAmodei,Republican,TimothyFasano,Independent
American,orHelmuth Lehmann,Independent?
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Women
Men
Total
46%
51%
48%
33%
37%
35%
4%
4%
4%
2%
2%
2%
15%
6%
11%
Amodei Marshall Fasano
Lehmann Undecided
IftheelectionforCongresswasbeingheldtoday,forwhom
wouldyouvoteifthecandidateswereKateMarshall,Democrat,
MarkAmodei,Republican,TimothyFasano,Independent
American,orHelmuth Lehmann,Independent?(ByGender)
MagellanDataandMappingStrategies|www.MagellanStrategies.com|3038618585 28
65+
5564
4554
3544
1834
Total
47%40%
49%
59%
62%
48%
36%
41%
32%
26%
31%
35%
5%
3%
7%
5%
4%
1%
3%2%
2%
11%
13%
10%
10%
7%
11%
Amodei Marshall Fasano
Lehmann Undecided
IftheelectionforCongresswasbeingheldtoday,forwhom
wouldyouvoteifthecandidateswereKateMarshall,Democrat,MarkAmodei,Republican,TimothyFasano,Independent
American,orHelmuth Lehmann,Independent?(ByAge)
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Independent
Democrat
Republican
Total
39%
13%
78%
48%
33%
73%
5%
35%
9%
4%
3%
4%
5%
1%
2%
2%
14%
9%
12%
11%
Amodei Marshall Fasano
Lehmann Undecided
IftheelectionforCongresswasbeingheldtoday,forwhom
wouldyouvoteifthecandidateswereKateMarshall,Democrat,
MarkAmodei,Republican,TimothyFasano,Independent
American,orHelmuth Lehmann,Independent?(ByParty)
MagellanDataandMappingStrategies|www.MagellanStrategies.com|3038618585 30
IftheelectionforCongresswasbeingheldtoday,forwhom
wouldyouvoteifthecandidateswereKateMarshall,Democrat,MarkAmodei,Republican,TimothyFasano,Independent
American,orHelmuth Lehmann,Independent?(ByRegion)
Rural
CentralWest
Washoe
Total
42%
54%
47%
48%
34%
29%
38%
35%
5%
3%
5%
4%
1%
2%
2%
2%
18%
12%
8%
11%
Amodei Marshall Fasano
Lehmann Undecided
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Marshall~AmodeiBallotTest
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51%
36%13%
Amodei Marshall Undecided
IftheelectionforCongresswasbeingheldtoday,forwhom
wouldyouvoteifthecandidateswereKateMarshall,
Democrat,orMarkAmodei,Republican?
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TOTALMen Women
38% 40%
37%
13% 13%13%
30% 32%29%
6% 6%5%
13% 9%16%
Definitely Amodei ProbablyAmodei
DefinitelyMarshall ProbablyMarshall
Undecided
51%
36%13%
Amodei MarshallUndecided
IftheelectionforCongresswasbeingheldtoday,forwhom
wouldyouvoteifthecandidateswereKateMarshall,
Democrat,orMarkAmodei,Republican?(ByGender)
MagellanDataandMappingStrategies|www.MagellanStrategies.com|3038618585 34
TOTAL18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
38% 47% 49%39%
31% 39%
13%
18% 15%
17%
13%9%
30%19% 22%
30%
36% 31%
6% 8% 4% 3%7% 6%
13% 8% 10% 11% 13% 15%
Definitely Amodei ProbablyAmodei
DefinitelyMarshall ProbablyMarshall
Undecided
IftheelectionforCongresswasbeingheldtoday,forwhom
wouldyouvoteifthecandidateswereKateMarshall,
Democrat,orMarkAmodei,Republican?(ByAge)
51%
36%13%
Amodei MarshallUndecided
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TOTAL
RepublicanDemocratIndependent
38%
65%
10%25%
13%
18%
4%
20%
30%
5%
67%20%
6% 1%9%
12%
13% 11% 10%
23%
Definitely Amodei ProbablyAmodei
DefinitelyMarshall ProbablyMarshall
Undecided
IftheelectionforCongresswasbeingheldtoday,forwhom
wouldyouvoteifthecandidateswereKateMarshall,
Democrat,orMarkAmodei,Republican?(ByParty)
51%
36%13%
Amodei MarshallUndecided
MagellanDataandMappingStrategies|www.MagellanStrategies.com|3038618585 36
TOTALWashoe
CentralWest
Rural
38% 41%43%
29%
13% 11% 12%
19%
30% 34%24%
30%
6%5%
8%3%
13% 9%13%
19%
Definitely Amodei ProbablyAmodei
DefinitelyMarshall ProbablyMarshall
Undecided
IftheelectionforCongresswasbeingheldtoday,forwhom
wouldyouvoteifthecandidateswereKateMarshall,
Democrat,orMarkAmodei,Republican?(ByRegion)
51%
36%13%
Amodei MarshallUndecided
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FiscalIdeology
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ConservativeModerate
LiberalNoOpinion
55%
32%
11%2%
Generallyspeaking,doyouconsideryourselftobe
conservative,moderateorliberalonfiscalissues,suchastaxesandgovernmentspending?
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TOTAL
Men
Women
55%
61%
50%
32%
28%
36%
11% 10%11%
2%1%
3%
ConservativeModerateLiberalNoOpinion
MagellanDataandMappingStrategies|www.MagellanStrategies.com|3038618585 39
Generallyspeaking,doyouconsideryourselftobe
conservative,moderateorliberalonfiscalissues,such
astaxesandgovernmentspending?(ByGender)
TOTAL18-34
35-4445-54
55-6465+
55%
66%
57%
57%
51%
53%
32%
23%
41%
27% 3
4%
33%
11%
11%
2%
12%
15%
10%
2%
4%
4%
ConservativeModerateLiberalNoOpinion
MagellanDataandMappingStrategies|www.MagellanStrategies.com|3038618585 40
Generallyspeaking,doyouconsideryourselftobe
conservative,moderateorliberalonfiscalissues,suchastaxesandgovernmentspending?(ByAge)
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TOTAL
Republican
Democrat
Independent
55%
80%
21%
58%
32%
16
%
53%
31%
1
1%
2% 2
4%
7%
2
%
2%2%
4%
ConservativeModerateLiberalNoOpinion
MagellanDataandMappingStrategies|www.MagellanStrategies.com|3038618585 41
Generallyspeaking,doyouconsideryourselftobe
conservative,moderateorliberalonfiscalissues,such
astaxesandgovernmentspending?(ByParty)
TOTAL
Washoe
Central WestRural
55%
52% 6
3%
53%
32%
34%
30%
31%
11%
13%
5%
12%
2%
1%
2%
4%
Conservative
Moderate
Liberal
NoOpinion
MagellanDataandMappingStrategies|www.MagellanStrategies.com|3038618585 42
Generallyspeaking,doyouconsideryourselftobe
conservative,moderateorliberalonfiscalissues,suchastaxesandgovernmentspending?(ByRegion)
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SocialIdeology
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ConservativeModerate
LiberalNoOpinion
43%
32%
22%
3%
Generallyspeaking,doyouconsideryourselftobe
conservative,moderateorliberalonsocialissues,suchassamesexmarriageandabortion?
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TOTAL
Men
Women
43%
44%
41%
32%
34%
30%
22%
19%
26%
3%3%
3%
Conservative
Moderate
Liberal
NoOpinion
MagellanDataandMappingStrategies|www.MagellanStrategies.com|3038618585 45
Generallyspeaking,doyouconsideryourselftobe
conservative,moderateorliberalonsocialissues,such
assamesexmarriageandabortion?(ByGender)
TOTAL18-34
35-4445-54
55-6465+
43%
55%
45%
38%
40%
44%
32%
22%
35%
35%
37%
27%
22%
2
3%
18% 24
%
22%
24%3
%
2%
3%
1%
5%
Conservative
Moderate
Liberal
NoOpinion
MagellanDataandMappingStrategies|www.MagellanStrategies.com|3038618585 46
Generallyspeaking,doyouconsideryourselftobe
conservative,moderateorliberalonsocialissues,suchassamesexmarriageandabortion?(ByAge)
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TOTAL
Republican
Democrat
Independent
43%
65%
16%
37%3
2%
28%
34% 4
1%
22%
5%
46%
19%
3%
2%4%
3%
Conservative
Moderate
Liberal
NoOpinion
MagellanDataandMappingStrategies|www.MagellanStrategies.com|3038618585 47
Generallyspeaking,doyouconsideryourselftobe
conservative,moderateorliberalonsocialissues,such
assamesexmarriageandabortion?(ByParty)
TOTAL
Washoe
Central WestRural
43%
37% 4
9%
48%
32%
34%
34%
26%2
2%
2
7%
16%
19%
3%2%
1%7%
Conservative
Moderate
Liberal
NoOpinion
MagellanDataandMappingStrategies|www.MagellanStrategies.com|3038618585 48
Generallyspeaking,doyouconsideryourselftobe
conservative,moderateorliberalonsocialissues,suchassamesexmarriageandabortion?(ByRegion)
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SurveyDemographics
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GenderDemographics
Female
52%
Male
48%
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18343544
45545564
65+
8% 12%
20%
26%
34%
AgeGroupDemographics
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Republican
Democrat
Independent
48%
38%
14%
Party
Demographics
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White Hispanic/LatinoBlack/African
American Other
86%
6% 5%3%
RaceDemographics
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WashoeCentralWest
Rural
52%
25%23%
Region
Demographics
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