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Net–Migration in the Human Mortality Database and related mortality databases. Jim Oeppen 1 1 Interdisciplinary Centre on Population Dynamics University of Southern Denmark Recent Trends and Future Uncertainties in Longevity The 5th Human Mortality Database Symposium Berlin, 13 th –15 th May, 2019 Oeppen Net–Migration in the HMD

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Page 1: Net Migration in the Human Mortality Database and related ...€¦ · Net{Migration in the Human Mortality Database and related mortality databases. Jim Oeppen1 1Interdisciplinary

Net–Migration in the Human Mortality Databaseand related mortality databases.

Jim Oeppen1

1Interdisciplinary Centre on Population DynamicsUniversity of Southern Denmark

Recent Trends and Future Uncertainties in LongevityThe 5th Human Mortality Database Symposium

Berlin, 13th–15th May, 2019

Oeppen Net–Migration in the HMD

Page 2: Net Migration in the Human Mortality Database and related ...€¦ · Net{Migration in the Human Mortality Database and related mortality databases. Jim Oeppen1 1Interdisciplinary

Building Exposure Uniform Migration Examples: Exposure Examples: Net–Migration

Outline

1 Building the Exposure Denominators

2 Uniform Migration Assumption

3 Examples: Exposure versus a Benchmark

4 Examples: Net–Migration

Oeppen Net–Migration in the HMD

Page 3: Net Migration in the Human Mortality Database and related ...€¦ · Net{Migration in the Human Mortality Database and related mortality databases. Jim Oeppen1 1Interdisciplinary

Building Exposure Uniform Migration Examples: Exposure Examples: Net–Migration

Exposure from Censuses and Deaths

1995 2000 2005 2010

110

Oeppen Net–Migration in the HMD

Page 4: Net Migration in the Human Mortality Database and related ...€¦ · Net{Migration in the Human Mortality Database and related mortality databases. Jim Oeppen1 1Interdisciplinary

Building Exposure Uniform Migration Examples: Exposure Examples: Net–Migration

Exposure from Deaths: Extinct Cohorts

110

TT - 25

Oeppen Net–Migration in the HMD

Page 5: Net Migration in the Human Mortality Database and related ...€¦ · Net{Migration in the Human Mortality Database and related mortality databases. Jim Oeppen1 1Interdisciplinary

Building Exposure Uniform Migration Examples: Exposure Examples: Net–Migration

Exposure errors produce Cohort effects

1995 2000 2005 2010

110

Oeppen Net–Migration in the HMD

Page 6: Net Migration in the Human Mortality Database and related ...€¦ · Net{Migration in the Human Mortality Database and related mortality databases. Jim Oeppen1 1Interdisciplinary

Building Exposure Uniform Migration Examples: Exposure Examples: Net–Migration

Outline

1 Building the Exposure Denominators

2 Uniform Migration Assumption

3 Examples: Exposure versus a Benchmark

4 Examples: Net–Migration

Oeppen Net–Migration in the HMD

Page 7: Net Migration in the Human Mortality Database and related ...€¦ · Net{Migration in the Human Mortality Database and related mortality databases. Jim Oeppen1 1Interdisciplinary

Building Exposure Uniform Migration Examples: Exposure Examples: Net–Migration

Oeppen Net–Migration in the HMD

Page 8: Net Migration in the Human Mortality Database and related ...€¦ · Net{Migration in the Human Mortality Database and related mortality databases. Jim Oeppen1 1Interdisciplinary

Building Exposure Uniform Migration Examples: Exposure Examples: Net–Migration

Outline

1 Building the Exposure Denominators

2 Uniform Migration Assumption

3 Examples: Exposure versus a Benchmark

4 Examples: Net–Migration

Oeppen Net–Migration in the HMD

Page 9: Net Migration in the Human Mortality Database and related ...€¦ · Net{Migration in the Human Mortality Database and related mortality databases. Jim Oeppen1 1Interdisciplinary

Building Exposure Uniform Migration Examples: Exposure Examples: Net–Migration

Spain Exposure: Male

Oeppen Net–Migration in the HMD

Page 10: Net Migration in the Human Mortality Database and related ...€¦ · Net{Migration in the Human Mortality Database and related mortality databases. Jim Oeppen1 1Interdisciplinary

Building Exposure Uniform Migration Examples: Exposure Examples: Net–Migration

Spain Exposure: Male minus Female

Oeppen Net–Migration in the HMD

Page 11: Net Migration in the Human Mortality Database and related ...€¦ · Net{Migration in the Human Mortality Database and related mortality databases. Jim Oeppen1 1Interdisciplinary

Building Exposure Uniform Migration Examples: Exposure Examples: Net–Migration

Kyoto Exposure: Male minus Female

Oeppen Net–Migration in the HMD

Page 12: Net Migration in the Human Mortality Database and related ...€¦ · Net{Migration in the Human Mortality Database and related mortality databases. Jim Oeppen1 1Interdisciplinary

Building Exposure Uniform Migration Examples: Exposure Examples: Net–Migration

Outline

1 Building the Exposure Denominators

2 Uniform Migration Assumption

3 Examples: Exposure versus a Benchmark

4 Examples: Net–Migration

Oeppen Net–Migration in the HMD

Page 13: Net Migration in the Human Mortality Database and related ...€¦ · Net{Migration in the Human Mortality Database and related mortality databases. Jim Oeppen1 1Interdisciplinary

Building Exposure Uniform Migration Examples: Exposure Examples: Net–Migration

Sweden Female Net Emigration (x1000)

Oeppen Net–Migration in the HMD

Page 14: Net Migration in the Human Mortality Database and related ...€¦ · Net{Migration in the Human Mortality Database and related mortality databases. Jim Oeppen1 1Interdisciplinary

Building Exposure Uniform Migration Examples: Exposure Examples: Net–Migration

USA Female Net Emigration (x1000)

Oeppen Net–Migration in the HMD

Page 15: Net Migration in the Human Mortality Database and related ...€¦ · Net{Migration in the Human Mortality Database and related mortality databases. Jim Oeppen1 1Interdisciplinary

Building Exposure Uniform Migration Examples: Exposure Examples: Net–Migration

France Female Net Emigration (x1000)

Oeppen Net–Migration in the HMD

Page 16: Net Migration in the Human Mortality Database and related ...€¦ · Net{Migration in the Human Mortality Database and related mortality databases. Jim Oeppen1 1Interdisciplinary

Building Exposure Uniform Migration Examples: Exposure Examples: Net–Migration

Taiwan Female Net Emigration (x1000)

Oeppen Net–Migration in the HMD

Page 17: Net Migration in the Human Mortality Database and related ...€¦ · Net{Migration in the Human Mortality Database and related mortality databases. Jim Oeppen1 1Interdisciplinary

Building Exposure Uniform Migration Examples: Exposure Examples: Net–Migration

Japan Female Net Emigration (x1000)

Oeppen Net–Migration in the HMD

Page 18: Net Migration in the Human Mortality Database and related ...€¦ · Net{Migration in the Human Mortality Database and related mortality databases. Jim Oeppen1 1Interdisciplinary

Building Exposure Uniform Migration Examples: Exposure Examples: Net–Migration

England & Wales Fem. Net Emign. (x1000)

Oeppen Net–Migration in the HMD

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