need assessment t&d

8/8/2019 Need Assessment T&D

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FOCUS GROUP-DELPHI


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Delphi defined..

An organized method for collecting views and information

pertaining to a specific area;

A method that allows dialogue between geographically separated

experts while serving an effective means for learning;

Gathering a group of experts to forecast events and assess complex

issues;

Collective human intelligence;

A process of exploring assessing and evaluating.


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Delphi an historical perspective

Developed in 1953 by Olaf Helmer & Norman

Dalkey to address military forecasting.

1960s A forecasting instrument in many

American industries & human services.

1970s Critics questioned the scientific

respectability of Delphi saying it lacked a

scientific research paradigm.

Early 1980s In education alone, over 441

Delphi dissertations.0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1960's 1970's 1980's 1990's

Delphi Studies


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Delphi - Basic Findings

The Delphi process has been used in various fields of study

such as

Program planning,

Needs assessment,

Policy determination,

Resource utilization.


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Delphi Technique - Characteristics

Method for consensus-building by using a series of

questionnaires to collect data from a panel of selected subjects

Employs multiple iterations designed to develop a consensus of

opinion concerning a specific topic.

Iterations refer to the feedback process.

Feedback process allows and encourages the selected Delphi

participants to reassess their initial judgments about the

information provided in previous iterations.


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Delphi Technique Characteristics(Cont)

Primary characteristics and advantages of the Delphi process

Subject anonymity which can reduce the effects of

dominant individuals.

Controlled feedback process to reduce the effect of noise.

Ability to use statistical analysis techniques is a practicewhich further reduces the potential of group pressure for

conformity.


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Delphi Stages Delphi Processes

Investigators convert the

collected information into a

well-structured questionnaire.

Round 2: Second

questionnaire is given to rateor rank-order items to

establish preliminary

priorities among items.

Areas of disagreement andagreement are identified

Round 3: To specify thereasons for remaining outside

the consensus, an opportunity to

clarify both the information and

their judgments of the relative

importance of the items.

A slight increase in thedegree of consensus can

be expected

Round 4: Study ResultsOne collective consensus

is established.

Delphi Method

Round 1: Subjectsare chosen. Begins with an

open-ended questionnaire.


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Subject Selection

Three groups of people are well qualified to be

subjects of a Delphi study

The top management decision makers who will utilize the

outcomes of the Delphi study

The professional staff members together with their support

team; and

The respondents to the Delphi questionnaire whose judgments

are being sought


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Delphi +s

Opportunities for large number of people to participate;

Focus is on ideas rather than individuals;

Anonymity for participants which make contributions of ideas

a safe activity;

Opportunities for participants to reconsider their opinions;

Allows for identification of priorities.


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Delphi -s

Large amount of time to conduct several rounds;

The complexity of data analysis;

The difficulty of maintaining participant enthusiasm throughout process;

The problem of keeping statements value free and clearly defined;

Self reporting data is subject to respondents biases and memories;

The bandwagon effect of a majority opinion;

The power of persuasion or prestigious individuals to shape group

opinion;

The vulnerability of group dynamics to manipulation;


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Bell Canada was one of the first businesses to adapt the Delphi

technique to its forecasting activities.

Delphi technique have addressed the emergence of electric and

hybrid gas-electric automobiles, predicted tourism in certain

locales, and identified the potential for sophisticated technology

waste-management systems.

Delphi projects will be used to promote innovative ideas regarding

the future of space travel, colonizing other planets, etc.

Real-Time Examples.


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