nedm construction project cost & schedule philosophy vince cianciolo, ornl physics division...

nEDM Construction ProjectCost & Schedule Philosophy

Vince Cianciolo, ORNL Physics Division

Internal Cost & Schedule Review02/11/2005

EDM Cost & Schedule Review 02/11/2005

V. Cianciolo, ORNL Physics2

Outline

• WBS high level summary• Development of cost estimate

– Estimate developed for the baseline design discussed by Jan Boissevain

– Each project element defined by:• Sample WBS dictionary entry• Risk-based contingency analysis• Sample cost sheet

• Development of schedule estimate• Details on major items to be given by

responsible collaborators in following talks



WBS Overview

• Over 120 elements in WBS structure• Elements organized in 14 major divisions:



WBS Overview, cont.• These were further broken down into major sub-tasks:

$FY05



WBS Overview, cont.

$FY05



WBS Application• Generally the cost and schedule estimates were developed

one level deeper:– Design item

• Cost/effort/time required to produce shop drawings.– Procure item

• Cost/effort/time required to purchase item, including, e.g., development of procurement spec, delivery time.

– Install item• Cost/effort/time required to integrate them into next larger item,

including stand-alone testing and in-field modifications.• Each element defined in a WBS dictionary entry

– Description– Basis for estimate

• Cost estimates for each element documented in individual cost sheets– Material, labor, overheads included

• Required physicist effort estimated, but costs not assigned to project

– Risk-based contingency calculation



Sample WBS Dictionary Entry



Typical Rate Assumptions

Laboratory

University

Material 13% 0%

Labor 100% 50%

Engineer $79

Technician (High)

$54

Technician (Low)

$40

Overhead Rates

Hourly Labor Rates



Sample WBS Cost Sheet



Contingency Calculation

Technical, cost, and schedule risk weights

Technical Cost Schedule Risk weight

Material cost OR labor rate Same for all 1

Design OR manufacturing Material cost AND labor rate 2

Design AND manufacturing 4

Technical, cost, and schedule risk factors

Technical Cost Schedule Risk factor

Existing design and off-the-shelf hardware Off-the-shelf or catalog item 1%

Minor modifications to an existing design Vendor quote from established drawings No schedule impact on any other item 2%

Extensive modifications to an existing design Vendor quote with some design sketches 3%

New design, nothing exotic In-house estimate based on previous similar experience Delays completion of non-critical path subsystem item

4%

New design, different from established designs or existing technology

In-house estimate for item with minimal experience but related to existing capabilities

6%

New design, requires some R&D but does not advance the state-of-the-art

In-house estimate for item with minimal experience and minimal in-house capability

Delays completion of critical path subsystem item

8%

New design, development of new technology which advances state-of-the-art

Top-down estimate from analogous programs 10%

New design, way beyond the current state-of-the-art Engineering judgment 15%

• Each item in the WBS is assigned three risk factors (F) and three risk weights (W).– State of design– Basis of cost estimate– Schedule criticality

• C = FiWi, where repeated indices imply summation.

C = 2x15% + 1x10% + 1x4% =44%



Development of Project Schedule• Durations estimated for each WBS element

– Past experience– Vendor estimates

• Schedule contingency assigned – For most items the float estimate is given by the

duration estimate and the cost contingency estimate.• Elements entered into MSProject and linkage

analysis performed.• Gives a project schedule, including schedule

contingency, unconstrained by (unknown) BA profile.

• Items well off the critical path are then delayed to backload the profile while still completing the project as soon as possible. – Gives proposed BA profile.– Allows escalation calculation (2.5% per year assumed).

nedm construction project cost & schedule philosophy vince cianciolo, ornl physics division...

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