@unocpar@UNOmahacpar#Nebraskabythenumbers

Nebraska’s Increasing Urbanization

Josie Schafer, Ph.D., Director

jgschafer@unomaha.educpar.unomaha.edu/policy

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1900 1930 1960 1990 2020 proj. 2050 proj.

% o

f TO

TAL

POPU

LATI

ON

65% of Nebraska’s population will live in a metro by 2020

Metro counties (12) Nonmetro counties (81)

Decennial Census and 2018 Vintage Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau

-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

Core Metro (5) Outlying Metro (7) Micropolitan Core(9)

Rural, with urbancluster (22)

100% rural (50)

NU

MBE

R O

F PE

RSO

NS

Nebraska is losing about 2,000 people a year to other states Persons age 1 and older by area (no. of counties) 2017

Flow with other states Flow within NE

About 4,000 persons come to Nebraska from international

locations each year

Source:2013-2017, American Community Survey, U.S. Census Bureau

Domestic Net Migration International Net Migration

U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey https://public.tableau.com/profile/unocpar#!/vizhome/State-Migration/Dashboard1

Net domestic migration for Nebraska is negative but net positive for international migration

Source: 2018 Vintage Population Estimates, U.S. Census BureauPrepared By : David Drozd

Since 2010, Nebraska’s population has increased about 5% but 66 counties have lost populationPercent change in population 2010 - 2018

Less than 5% increase5% or more increase Less than 5% decrease 5% or more decrease

Source: source info here can be removed if unnecessary source info here can be removed if unnecessary source info here can be removed if unnecessary source info here

Net domestic migration of age 25+ by education 2010 to 2017

Sources: 2006-2010 to 2013-2017 American Community Surveys, U.S. Census Bureau,

984 826

-1,104

1,935

687

-1,102

1,873

376

-1,438

1,708

266

797495

-1,908

475256

-2,328

-83

902

-2,148

150

1,106

-1,356

-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

High School or Less Some college/Associates Degree Bachelor's Degree or More

Net

Mig

ratio

n of

Age

25+

Pop

ulat

ion

2010

2010

2017

2017

2010 2017

377,452 people have a

bachelor’s degree or more

Source: source info here can be removed if unnecessary source info here can be removed if unnecessary source info here can be removed if unnecessary source info here

21%5%

6%7%

8%9%

10%12%

16%19%

22%23%

24%26%26%

28%30%

32%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

All ages

85 +

80-84

75-79

70-74

65-69

60-64

55-59

50-54

45-49

40-44

34-39

30-34

25-29

20-24

15-19

10-14

5-9

under 5

1990 2017

21% of Nebraska’s population is minority, up from 8% in 1990Minority population as % of total population by age groups

Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2013-2017

-51.2

-50.7

-48.0

-42.3

-41.8

-40.2

-39.7

-38.0

-37.5

-37.3

-36.9

-35.6

-35.4

-35.4

-35.2

5.0

11.1

20.0

Dakota

Colfax

Sioux

Loup

Dundy

Boyd

Fillmore

Hayes

Wheeler

Sheridan

Franklin

Blaine

Frontier

Garden

Grant

Lancaster

Arthur

Sarpy

Since 2000, in all but 3 counties there has been a decline in the number of White, non-Hispanic population under 20 Percent change in white population under 20, 2000- 2017

Sources: Tables PCT012 and PCT012I, 2000 Census (SF1); 2017 Vintage Population Estimates, all U.S. Census Bureau

Challenges and Opportunities of Urbanization

Mobility

Cost of Living

Education

Source: source info here can be removed if unnecessary source info here can be removed if unnecessary source info here can be removed if unnecessary source info here

64% of Nebraskans have some higher education and higher education leads to higher income

U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Public Use Microdata and American Community Survey 5 year estimates, 2013-2017

9% 27% 34% 20% 10%

$24,346

$30,236

$34,912

$46,835

$60,825

$-

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Less than highschool graduate

High schoolgraduate

Some college orassociates degrees

Bachelor'sdegree

Graduate orprofessional degree

PERC

ENT

OF

POPU

LATI

ON

HIG

HES

T AT

TAIN

MEN

T

Educational attainment Median IncomeNationally, in 1973,16% of

jobs required a bachelor’s degree by

2020 35% will

30.6% or Greater Less than 20.0%20.0% - 30.5%

Only 7 counties in Nebraska have a concentration of persons with a Bachelor’s degree or more Percent of population 25 or older with a bachelor’s degree

Sales & related

Education

Health diagnosing & treating practitioner

Management

Business & financial

Transportation

Computer and mathematical

Production

Construction and extraction

Arts, entertainment, sports, & media

Life, physical, & social science

Law enforcement

Legal

Architecture & engineering

Installation, maintenance & repair

Fire & protective services

Farming, fishing & forestry

Health technicians

Community & social service

Healthcare support

Personal care and service Food preparation and service

related

Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000

MED

IAN

PER

SON

AL IN

COM

E $’

S

NUMBER OF PERSONS EMPLOYED

Low NumberHigh Wage

High NumberLow Wage

Low NumberLow Wage

American Community Survey, U.S. Census Bureau 2017 – current numbers. Bureau of Labor Statistics for 2016 - 2018 used for projections.

High Number High Wage

Challenges and Opportunities of Urbanization

Mobility

Cost of Living

Education

METRO/MICRO COMPOSITEINDEX

GROCERY ITEMS

HOUSING UTILITIES TRANSPORTATION HEALTH CARE MISC. GOODS AND SERVICES

Nebraska 92.3 96.5 84.0 91.2 96.3 99.4 96.1

Lincoln NE Metro 92.4 95.9 77.7 90.3 92.4 105.1 102.5

Omaha-Council Bluffs NE-IA Metro

91.4 96.6 81.0 99.2 101.2 95.9 93.1

The Council for Community and Economic Research; Cost of Living Index 2019 Q2

Nebraska ranked 17th among states for cost of livingOmaha ranks 163 and Lincoln 169 of 297 ranked communities on the cost of living index 2019 Quarter 2

Note: According to the Bureau of Labor, typically housing is more expensive in urban areas; while transportation, and healthcare are more expensive in rural area

2

2.1

2.2

2.3

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.7

2.8

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

PRIC

E TO

INCO

ME

RATI

OOmaha has been experiencing an increase in the price of homes relative to incomesPrice to income ratio per quarter 2000 Q2 2019

Zillow.com, quarterly for Omaha MSA

U.S. average is 3.5 |

Median sales price has

increased over 30% since 2014

12%

11%

12%

9%

13%

10%

8%

8%

8%

7%

17%

15%

17%

12%

17%

Rural (50)

Rural with a urban cluster (22)

Micropolitan (9)

Suburban (7)

Metropolitan (5)

% in poverty % 65+ in poverty % under 18 in poverty

Rural counties have the highest percentages of persons 65+ in povertyPercent of population in poverty by county groups

3%

44% 39%

Worked Full-Time Worked Less Than Full-Time Did Not Work

Of the 12% of the population that is in poverty, 47% work full or part-timePercent of population 16 and over that are in poverty by employment status over the past 12 months

23% of those in poverty, 25 or older,

have less than a high school degree

2013-2017 American Community Survey, U.S. Census Bureau, S1701

$50,711

$45,702

$38,524 $35,080 $33,625 $33,622

$30,684 $27,455

WhiteMale

AsianMale

WhiteFemale

BlackMale

LatinoMale

AsianFemale

BlackFemale

LatinaFemale

90%

76%

69% 66% 66%

61%54%

Non-whites and females earn less than white menMedian earnings in the past 12 months by ethnicity and gender | earnings as a % of white men

Table B20017 with race series, 2013-2017 American Community Survey, U.S. Census Bureau

Challenges and Opportunities of Urbanization

Mobility

Cost of Living

Education

Source: US Census Bureau, OnTheMap. 2017

276,134 persons commute outside of the county the work2017 number of persons who live in the county listed but commute to work outside the county

Source: US Census Bureau, OnTheMap. 2017

45% of commuters, commute out of 3 counties 2017 number of persons living in the cities listed and the top 10 places they commute

Greater mobility throughout the state can increase the workforce potential of each urban areaPopulation at each radius for 2017

See cpar.unomaha.edu/2020census for more information

Over $2,000 is lost for every person not

counted