NCEP Operational Wave Guidance during Hurricane Sandy

October 2012

Operational Wave Models at NCEP

• The following wave model systems are operational at NCEP– Global, Deterministic

• Multi_1: Global wave model, driven by GFS• Multi_2: Hurricane wave model, driven by a GFS/GFDL wind blend

– Global, Ensemble• MENS: Global wave ensemble model driven by GEFS• NFCENS: Combined NCEP/FNMOC wave ensemble product

– Super-ensemble combining NCEP and FNMOC wave ensemble wave heights

– Great Lakes, Deterministic• NAM driven wave model system• NDFD driven wave model system• A EMC-development parallel wave model (this is an upgrade of wave

physics for the Great Lakes and has been approved for transition to operations, as soon as the schedule makes it feasible).

NCEP Wave Model Guidance

• Comparison are made against buoys – 41001 East of Cape Hatteras– 41002 South of Cape Hatters– 44009 East of Delaware Bay– 44025 East of New York Harbor– 45007 South Lake Michigan– 45149 South Lake Huron

• Spatial fields of modeled wave heights are provided for reference

• Definitions of symbols and colors are indicated in the slide notes for each slide

Buoys used for Guidance Validation

Buoy 41001 (E Cape Hateras), Deterministic

Buoy 41001 (E Cape Hateras), Wave Ensembles

Buoy 41002 (S Cape Hateras), Deterministic

Buoy 41002 (S Cape Hateras), Wave Ensembles

Buoy 44009 (E Delaware Bay), Determinisitc

Buoy 44025 (E New York Harbor), Deterministic

Buoy 44025 (E NY Harbor), Wave Ensembles

Buoys 45007 & 45149 (Great Lakes)

Spatial Hs maps

• Spatial fields of modeled wave heights, types of plots– Maximum wave-height swath (from wave

ensembles), give an integrated view of maximum predicted waves

– Probabilities for wave heights larger than 7m (from wave ensembles)

– Spatial fields of wave heights from deterministic models

Wave Ensembles, Max wave-height swath

Wave Ensembles, Swath of P(Hs > 7m)

Spatial Hs map – GFS driven

Spatial Hs map – Hurricane wind (GFS+GFDL) driven

Spatial Hs map – GFS driven

Spatial Hs map – Hurricane wind (GFS+GFDL) driven

Spatial Hs map – GFS driven

Spatial Hs map – Hurricane wind (GFS+GFDL) driven

Spatial Hs map – GFS driven

Spatial Hs map – Hurricane wind (GFS+GFDL) driven