nbn: rebooted, cisco's dr robert pepper

The NBN Rebooted: Broadband Network Trends & Solving the Multi-Technology Puzzle

Robert Pepper Vice President, Global Technology Policy

17 November 2014

IP Network Traffic Growth Trends

Growth Drivers: Video Dominates

Local Access Trends

Cloud & Networks Fit For Purpose

3 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

VNI Projections and Actuals (Global) Actual Growth Has Been Within 10% of Projected Growth

Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018

Exabytes per Month

50 51

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

IP Traffic in 2013

Projected in 2010 Actual


0.38 0.50 0.61 0.74 0.88

1.04

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Australia IP Traffic Growth / Top-Line Australia IP Traffic will Increase 2.7X from 2013 to 2018


22% CAGR

Exabytes per Month


Busy Hour versus Average Hour Busy Hour Will Be 3.3x Higher Than Average Hour by 2018

Ratio of Busy Hour to Average Hour Traffic

2.7 2.5 2.5

3.0 2.7

2.3 2.6

3.3 3.2 3.2 3.5 3.4

2.9 3.2

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Glo

bal

APA

C

LATA

M

NA

WE

CEE

MEA



Busy Hour vs. Average Hour Internet Traffic (Australia) Driven by Video, Busy Hour Grows Faster Than Average Hour

Traffic (Gbps)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

10

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Average Hour

Busy Hour


27% CAGR

22% CAGR


2013 Metro is 1.7x Long-Haul

Long-Haul Metro Access

2018 Metro is 1.9x Long-Haul

Long-Haul Metro Access 230 PB/mo 384 PB/mo 384 PB/mo

534 PB/mo 1,041 PB/mo 1,041 PB/mo

Australia Metro vs. Long-Haul Traffic by Topology, 2013 and 2018

1 IP Network Traffic Growth Trends

Growth Drivers: Video Dominates

Local Access Trends 3

4 Cloud & Networks Fit For Purpose


Australia IP Video Traffic Growth IP Video Will Account for 81% of Australia’s IP Traffic by 2018


Petabytes per Month

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Gaming (0.06%, 0.06%) File Sharing (10%, 4%) Web/Data (28%, 15%) IP VOD (7%, 12%) Internet Video (55%, 69%)

22% CAGR 2013–2018

* Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 traffic share


Increasing Video Definition By 2018, More than 20% of Connected Flat Panel TV Sets will be 4K

1 8 28

63

119

202

0

50

100

150

200

250

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

SD 2 Mbps

HD 7.2 Mbps

UHD 18 Mbps

Connected 4K TV Sets (M)

Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Data Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018


Higher Definition Content Impacts Australia IP Video Growth Ultra-HD Will Account for 9% of Australia IP Video Traffic by 2018


Petabytes per Month

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Ultra-High Def (UHD) Video (0.1%, 9%) High Def (HD) Video (17%, 49.6%) Standard Def (SD) Video (83%, 41.6%)

29% CAGR 2013–2018

* Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 traffic share


Devices Matter: Monthly Traffic per Device

= Tablet

Ultra High Definition TV

Laptop/PC

4.0 GB

= 22.9 GB*

22.7 GB

* Includes IP VoD Traffic Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018

=

= Smartphone 1.0 GB

= M2M Module 78 MB

2013 2018

18.0 GB

26.3 GB*

39.2 GB

5.4 GB

514 MB


0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Other Portable Devices (5.2%,4.1%)

Tablets (2.3%,5.0%)

PCs (12.2%,7.0%)

TV (10.0%,12.8%)

Non-Smartphones (37.6%,16.8%)

Smartphones (14.1%,19.1%)

M2M (18.6%,35.2%)

* Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 device traffic share Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Data Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018

Billions of Devices

11% CAGR

Global Connected Devices Growth by Type By 2018, M2M More than a Third of the Total Connections


0 20 40 60 80

100 120 140 160 180 200

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018


Tablets (5.5%,6.7%)

PCs (21.8%,11.3%)

TV (11.7%,16.1%)



M2M (26.3%,45.4%)

* Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 device traffic share Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Data Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018

Millions of Devices

12% CAGR

Australia Connected Devices Growth by Type By 2018, M2M Nearly Half of the Total Connections


Australia IP Traffic by Device Type By 2018, Non-PC Devices will Drive 43% of Australia IP Traffic

Petabytes per Month

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018



M2M (1.0%,5.7%)

Tablets (3.0%,10.5%)


TV (9.3%,15.9%)

PCs (82.6%,57.1%)

22% CAGR

* Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 device traffic share Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018


2 Growth Drivers: Video Dominates

Local Access Trends

4 Cloud & Networks Fit For Purpose


Australia IP Traffic by Local Access Technology 68% of IP Traffic Connects by Wireless in 2018


Petabytes per Month

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Mobile Data (63% CAGR) Fixed/Wired (12% CAGR) Fixed/Wi-Fi from Mobile Devices (77% CAGR) Fixed/Wi-Fi from Wi-Fi Only Devices (19% CAGR)

32%

50%

11%

22% CAGR 2013–2018

7%


Australia Internet Traffic by Local Access Technology 77% of Internet Traffic Connects by Wireless in 2018


Petabytes per Month

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Mobile Data (63% CAGR) Fixed/Wired (7% CAGR) Fixed/Wi-Fi from Mobile Devices (77% CAGR) Fixed/Wi-Fi from Wi-Fi Only Devices (19% CAGR)

23%

56%

13%

22% CAGR 2013–2018

8%


Surge of Hotspots

Globally, there will be 53 million hotspots by 2018


Plans to have 8 million US hotspots by end of 2014

Supports approx. 7 million hotspots in UK today

Offers more than 620K hotspots in Asia today

Offers more than 500K hotspots in LATAM today


In Australia, Wi-Fi speeds will grow 2.4-fold reaching 22 Mbps by 2018, up from 9.1 Mbps in 2013.

Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Forecast, 2013–2018


2 Growth Drivers: Video Dominates

Local Access Trends 3

Cloud & Networks Fit For Purpose


32% CAGR 2013–2018

Global Cloud Traffic Growth Cloud Traffic Will Nearly Quadruple from 2013 to 2018

Zettabytes per Year

Source: Cisco Global Cloud Index, 2013–2018

1.6 2.3

3.1

4.0

5.1

6.5

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018


By 2018, 53% of all residential Internet Users will use Personal Cloud Storage.

Source: Cisco Global Cloud Index, 2013–2018


Global Cloud Readiness Business & Consumer Network Requirements for Concurrent Apps

Basic Cloud Apps Concurrent Support

Intermediate Cloud Apps Concurrent Support

Advanced Cloud Apps Concurrent Support

Network Requirements: Download Speed: -1900 kbps Upload Speed: -600 kbps Latency: Above 160 ms

Network Requirements: Download Speed: –7,000 kbps Upload Speed: –2,600 kbps Latency: 159-100 ms

Network Requirements: Download Speed: -21,000 kbps

Upload Speed: -9,000 kbps Latency: Less than 100 ms

+ +

•  SD video conferencing •  Personal content locker •  HD video streaming •  Electronic health records •  ERP/CRM •  VoLTE

•  Virtual office •  Connected medicine •  HD video conferencing •  Stream ultra HD video •  High frequency stock trading •  Connected car safety

applications

•  Stream basic video/music •  Text communications •  VOIP •  Web browsing •  Web conferencing •  Cloud based learning

management system


Focus on Latency: Asynchronous vs Synchronous Storage

100 ms 5 ms

Personal Content Locker Standard Backup

Asynchronous Storage Latency

Disaster Recovery Systems Data and Transaction

Replication Synchronous Storage Latency

ASYNCHRONOUS SYNCHRONOUS


Fixed Networks Upload/ Download Speeds

Source: Ookla Speedtest.net Net Index

Australia Canada Germany

Hong Kong

Korea

Japan

New Zealand United Kingdom United States

Singapore

-‐

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

-‐ 10 20 30 40 50

Average Uploa

d Speed (M

bps)

Average Download Speed (Mbps)

All Countries Comparators





Hong Kong

Korea

Japan


Singapore

-‐

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

-‐ 10 20 30 40 50

Average Uploa

d Speed (M

bps)



Australia Ave download: 9.8mbps Ave upload: 2.2mbps Ave latency: 52ms





Hong Kong

Korea

Japan


Singapore

-‐

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

-‐ 10 20 30 40 50

Average Uploa

d Speed (M

bps)



Canada Ave download: 15.5mbps Ave upload: 3.9mbps Ave latency: 43ms





Hong Kong

Korea

Japan


Singapore

-‐

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

-‐ 10 20 30 40 50

Average Uploa

d Speed (M

bps)



New Zealand Ave download: 15.6mbps Ave upload: 6.4mbps Ave latency: 41ms





Hong Kong

Korea

Japan


Singapore

-‐

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

-‐ 10 20 30 40 50

Average Uploa

d Speed (M

bps)



US Ave download: 17.9mbps Ave upload: 5.8mbps Ave latency: 50ms





Hong Kong

Korea

Japan


Singapore

-‐

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

-‐ 10 20 30 40 50

Average Uploa

d Speed (M

bps)



UK Ave download: 22.2mbps Ave upload: 5.4mbps Ave latency: 41ms





Hong Kong

Korea

Japan


Singapore

-‐

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

-‐ 10 20 30 40 50

Average Uploa

d Speed (M

bps)



Germany Ave download: 22.6mbps Ave upload: 4.2mbps Ave latency: 44ms





Hong Kong

Korea

Japan


Singapore

-‐

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

-‐ 10 20 30 40 50

Average Uploa

d Speed (M

bps)



Singapore Ave download: 42.1mbps Ave upload: 33.2mbps Ave latency: 44ms





Hong Kong

Korea

Japan


Singapore

-‐

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

-‐ 10 20 30 40 50

Average Uploa

d Speed (M

bps)



Japan Ave download: 41.9mbps Ave upload: 35.3mbps Ave latency: 32ms





Hong Kong

Korea

Japan


Singapore

-‐

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

-‐ 10 20 30 40 50

Average Uploa

d Speed (M

bps)



Korea Ave download: 44.5mbps Ave upload: 39.6mbps Ave latency: 30ms





Hong Kong

Korea

Japan


Singapore

-‐

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

-‐ 10 20 30 40 50

Average Uploa

d Speed (M

bps)



Hong Kong Ave download: 51.5mbps Ave upload: 43.7mbps Ave latency: 30ms


Key Takeaways and Implications •  High speed IP data traffic growth continues •  Average not good enough •  Video increasingly dominates •  Local access shifts to wireless--WiFi is essential •  Networks will be fixed and wireless •  Need more spectrum – licensed and licensed exempt •  Consumers and business increasingly rely on the Cloud •  Networks need to be managed--not all bits created equal •  Networks need to be built for the future and be future proof

Thank you.