navigating the future: being and becoming a futurist

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Navigating the Future: Being and Becoming a Futurist Daniel J. Pesut PhD APRN BC FAAN Professor and Associate Dean for Graduate Programs Indiana University School of Nursing [email protected]

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Navigating the Future: Being and Becoming a Futurist. Daniel J. Pesut PhD APRN BC FAAN Professor and Associate Dean for Graduate Programs Indiana University School of Nursing [email protected]. Future Pacing. What concepts, tools, techniques are most useful? How can information be used? - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Navigating the Future: Being and Becoming  a Futurist

Navigating the Future:Being and Becoming

a Futurist

Daniel J. Pesut PhD APRN BC FAAN

Professor and Associate Dean for Graduate Programs

Indiana University School of Nursing

[email protected]

Page 2: Navigating the Future: Being and Becoming  a Futurist

Future Pacing

• What concepts, tools, techniques are most useful?

• How can information be used?

• Why is information important?

• Why care about the information?

Page 3: Navigating the Future: Being and Becoming  a Futurist

Foresight

“Images of the future are the blue prints that we use in constructing our lives”

Cornish, E. (1977). The study of the future. Bethesda, MD: World Future Society.

Page 4: Navigating the Future: Being and Becoming  a Futurist

Wonder

If a time traveler from 50 years in the future could give you the answer to

one question, what would it be?

Page 5: Navigating the Future: Being and Becoming  a Futurist

Pride

If you were looking back 10 years from now and telling the tale of the

organization’s greatest success, what would the story be and why?

Page 6: Navigating the Future: Being and Becoming  a Futurist

Shame

If you were looking back 10 years from now and telling the tale of the

organization’s greatest failure, what would the story be and why?

Page 7: Navigating the Future: Being and Becoming  a Futurist

Memory

What does the organization need to forget?

What must it always remember?

Page 8: Navigating the Future: Being and Becoming  a Futurist

Imperatives

What are the most important strategic decisions we will have to make as an

organization?

Page 9: Navigating the Future: Being and Becoming  a Futurist

Obstacles and Dangers

What will prevent us from succeeding?

What are the greatest risks and dangers?

Page 10: Navigating the Future: Being and Becoming  a Futurist

Priorities

If you had the power to do one thing for the organization, what would it be, and

why?

Page 11: Navigating the Future: Being and Becoming  a Futurist

Objectives

• Discuss eight strategies that help to navigate future trends and issues in health care.

• Discuss futures thinking tools that help discern consequences of identified future health care trends.

Page 12: Navigating the Future: Being and Becoming  a Futurist

Foresight ~ Future Blind

Knowledge ~ Research

Learning ~ Education

Service ~ Practice

Kelso, Scott & Engstrom, D. (2006) The complementary nature. Bradford Books, MIT Press, Boston, MA. http://www.thecomplementarynature.com/TCN_Glossary.php

Page 13: Navigating the Future: Being and Becoming  a Futurist

Future Blind

• Lost and trapped in yesterday’s decisions, choices and consequences –become risk aversive

• Betrayed by expectations -must negotiate the expectations of youth with the experience of life

Hudson, Frederic (1999). The Adult Years: Mastering the art of self-renewal. Jossey-Bass: San Francisco.

Page 14: Navigating the Future: Being and Becoming  a Futurist

Future Blind

• Social systems once protective are destabilizing

• Overwhelmed with information and decisions• Bewildered by change, complexity and

discontinuities• Develop discourse of regret versus hope

Hudson, Frederic (1999). The Adult Years: Mastering the art of self-renewal. Jossey-Bass: San Francisco.

Page 15: Navigating the Future: Being and Becoming  a Futurist

Crossing the Quality Chasm

A New Health System for the 21st Century- The Century of

Complexity

http://newton.nap.edu/books/0309072808/html/

Page 16: Navigating the Future: Being and Becoming  a Futurist

Health Care PerformanceCharacteristics

• Safe

• Effective

• Patient- centered

• Timely

• Efficient

• Equitable

Page 17: Navigating the Future: Being and Becoming  a Futurist

A 21st Century Health Care System

• Evidenced based, planned care

• Reorganization of practices

• Systematic attention to patient information needs and behavioral change

• Ready access to clinical expertise

• Supportive information systems

Institute of Medicine (2001). Crossing the quality chasm: A new health system for the 21st century. Institute of Medicine, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C.

Page 18: Navigating the Future: Being and Becoming  a Futurist

Redesign Challenges

• Redesign care processes

• Effective use of information technologies

• Manage clinical knowledge and skills

• Develop effective teams

• Coordinate across conditions, services, settings, time

• Use of outcome measures for improvement and accountability

Page 19: Navigating the Future: Being and Becoming  a Futurist

USA AHA Workforce Keys

• Foster meaningful work– Patients, staff needs, meaning

• Improve workplace partnerships– Value, voice, rewards

• Broaden base of health care workers– Attract and retain a diverse work force

• Collaborate and build societal support– Institutional and public policy reform

Page 20: Navigating the Future: Being and Becoming  a Futurist

Four Futures

• Possible

• Plausible

• Probable

• Preferred

Page 21: Navigating the Future: Being and Becoming  a Futurist

“What the future holds for us depends on what we hold for the

future.”

Mikela and Philip Tarlow

Navigating the Future

Page 22: Navigating the Future: Being and Becoming  a Futurist

Glo

bal

R

enai

ssan

ce

Sus

tain

able

S

ocie

ty

The New

Econom

y

Failures of

Success

Fortress World

Co

llapse

into

Ch

aos

Business-As-Usual

Problems

Successes

Alternative Alternative FuturesFutures

Page 23: Navigating the Future: Being and Becoming  a Futurist

Future Studies

The purpose of future studies is not to predict the future, but to envision desirable futures and avoid or prevent catastrophic ones.

Page 24: Navigating the Future: Being and Becoming  a Futurist

Becoming A Futurist

• Pay attention to time and time-spirits.

• Learn about the future.

• Understand people’s reactions to learning about the future.

• Actively monitor industry trends and forecasts.

Page 25: Navigating the Future: Being and Becoming  a Futurist

Becoming a Futurist

• Discern logical consequences of trends using futures thinking tools and techniques.

• Use emotional intelligence in change efforts.

• Create vision-based scenarios.

• Stimulate strategic conversations about espoused visions.

Page 26: Navigating the Future: Being and Becoming  a Futurist

Time and Time Spirits

Page 27: Navigating the Future: Being and Becoming  a Futurist

Domains of Work

SharedMeaning

Creating valuein the present

Adding valuefor the future

Sustainingvalues

Quality indaily work

Processmanagement &

improvement

Process/systemdesign

Innovation & transformingwork

Strategicdevelopmentof physical &

intellectual capital

Strategic intent asdirection

Strategic intent asviability

Corporate citizenship& stewardship

Meeting present needswithout compromising

future generations

Keith McCandless, 1998Adapted from Hoebecke &

BIOSS

Page 28: Navigating the Future: Being and Becoming  a Futurist

Time Span Responsibilities

Creating valuein the present

Adding valuefor the future

Sustainingvalues

Quality indaily work

Processmanagement &

improvement

Process/systemdesign

Innovation & transformingwork

Strategicdevelopmentof physical &

intellectual capital

Strategic intent asdirection

Strategic intent asviability

Corporate citizenship& stewardship

Meeting present needswithout compromising

future generations

Keith McCandless, 1998Adapted from Hoebecke &

BIOSS

20-50 Years

10-20 Years

5-10 Years

2-5 Years

1-2 Years

3 Months-1 Year

1 Day-3 MonthsMastering the directtouch & feel of worktasks & patient care

Improving step-by-stepdiscrete processes

Connecting & finetuning parts of a system

Modeling & mappingalternative ideas/

practices

Imagining & creatingnew rules & fields of

knowledge

Weaving social, political,economic, global

intelligence

Sensing/perceiving theinterconnectedness of

all things & envisioningnew forms oforganization

50+ Years

Core Work Capabilities

Engaging Stakeholders in Each Domain

Page 29: Navigating the Future: Being and Becoming  a Futurist

Learning About the Future

Page 30: Navigating the Future: Being and Becoming  a Futurist

World Future Society

http://www.wfs.org/

http://www.wfs.org/futuretimesmay07.htm

Page 31: Navigating the Future: Being and Becoming  a Futurist

Reactions to Learning About the Future

• Patterns of Mind

• Patterns of Heart

• Patterns of Soul

Page 32: Navigating the Future: Being and Becoming  a Futurist

Actively Monitor Trends and Forecasts

Page 33: Navigating the Future: Being and Becoming  a Futurist

Scanning

Scanning involves searching information resources, consciously (active) or not (passive), for a particular kind (directed) of information which is then subjected to special attention.

Page 34: Navigating the Future: Being and Becoming  a Futurist

Top Ten Forecasts

http://www.wfs.org/forecasts.htm

Page 35: Navigating the Future: Being and Becoming  a Futurist

Trends and Consequences

• Personal

• Professional

• Organizational

Page 36: Navigating the Future: Being and Becoming  a Futurist

Future Trends

• On a sheet of paper write what you believe to be the top 7 trends

• Share your trends with a colleague

• Colleagues – must mark off the trend they believe least likely to happen

• Share with one more colleague and they must mark off the trend they believe least likely to happen

• One more time repeat the sharing and marking off

• What trends are left?

Page 37: Navigating the Future: Being and Becoming  a Futurist

Discern Consequences of Trends

Page 38: Navigating the Future: Being and Becoming  a Futurist

Trend

• What does this really mean?

• What does this really mean?

• What does this really mean?

• What does this really mean?

• What does this really mean?

Page 39: Navigating the Future: Being and Becoming  a Futurist

Futures Wheel

A futures research method that draws out the consequences and expands the impact of an identified trend or event.

Page 40: Navigating the Future: Being and Becoming  a Futurist

Futures Wheel

The search for consequences continues until three unanimously agreed-upon consequences have been developed.

Page 41: Navigating the Future: Being and Becoming  a Futurist

Cross-Impact Analysis• A futures method

technique used to make judgments about relationships among identified trend consequences.

• A matrix is developed with the identified trends.

• Judgments are made about the positive and negative impact of the trends in relation to one another.

Page 42: Navigating the Future: Being and Becoming  a Futurist

Global Health EconomyMap of the Decade

http://www.iftf.org/features/ghe_map.html

Page 43: Navigating the Future: Being and Becoming  a Futurist

Future Health Scan

• Globalization• Cost containment and outcomes• Advanced personalized therapies• Information infrastructure advances• Human genome project• Predict-and-manage paradigm

Page 44: Navigating the Future: Being and Becoming  a Futurist

Old ParadigmChronic Disease Management

Life ThreatLife Threat

Symptoms EmergeSymptoms Emerge

0

DiagnosisDiagnosis

SalvageSalvage

TreatmentTreatment

AgeAge

Inte

ns

ity

Inte

ns

ity

Source: Health Futures

Page 45: Navigating the Future: Being and Becoming  a Futurist

Diabetes - The Harvest Scenario

Life ThreatLife Threat

Symptoms EmergeSymptoms Emerge

0

InsulinInsulindependencedependence

DialysisDialysis

DiagnosisDiagnosis

TimeTime

Ac

uit

yA

cu

ity

CataractCataractremoval/removal/new lensesnew lenses

AmputationAmputationof limbsof limbs

CardiacCardiacSurgerySurgery

Source: Health Futures

Page 46: Navigating the Future: Being and Becoming  a Futurist

Diabetes - The Prediction & Management Scenario

Life ThreatLife Threat

Symptoms EmergeSymptoms Emerge

0 TimeTime

Ac

uit

yA

cu

ity

Biosensors/regulationBiosensors/regulationArtificial pancreasArtificial pancreasIslet cell transplantationIslet cell transplantationImmunotherapyImmunotherapySerum marker testingSerum marker testing

GeneticGeneticscreeningscreening

Source: Health Futures

Page 47: Navigating the Future: Being and Becoming  a Futurist

• The future happens at the intersection of knowledge and services……

Page 48: Navigating the Future: Being and Becoming  a Futurist

Influence Change With Emotional Intelligence

Page 49: Navigating the Future: Being and Becoming  a Futurist

Emotional Intelligence

• “The ability to sense, understand and effectively apply the power and acumen of emotions as a source of human energy, information, connection and influence”

Cooper, Robert & Sawaf, Ayman. (1997). Executive EQ: Emotional intelligence in leadership & organizations: Grosset/Putnam: New York.

Page 50: Navigating the Future: Being and Becoming  a Futurist

Future Think : Integrated Levels

• Environment

• Behavior

• Capabilities

• Values and Beliefs

• Identity

• Mission

• Vision

• SpiritDilts, Robert : http://nlpu.com/Coach2Awakener.htm

Page 51: Navigating the Future: Being and Becoming  a Futurist

Environment

• Constraints

• Opportunities

• Answers Where and When Questions?

Page 52: Navigating the Future: Being and Becoming  a Futurist

Behavior

• Actions or Reactions in Environment

• Answers Questions of What?

Page 53: Navigating the Future: Being and Becoming  a Futurist

Capabilities

• Abilities - Direct Actions; Map, Plan, Strategy.

• Answers the Question -- How?

Page 54: Navigating the Future: Being and Becoming  a Futurist

Beliefs and Values

• Motivation

• Permission

• Support or Denial of Capabilities.

• Answers -- Why?

Page 55: Navigating the Future: Being and Becoming  a Futurist

Identity

• Purpose

• Sense of Self

• Beliefs and Values

• Answers the Question -- Who?

Page 56: Navigating the Future: Being and Becoming  a Futurist

Mission

• What is my mission?

• What roles do I create for myself or are attributed to me by others?

• How do these roles support or impede my personal or professional aspirations?

Page 57: Navigating the Future: Being and Becoming  a Futurist

Vision and Truth

Desired State

Current Reality

Creative Tension

Page 58: Navigating the Future: Being and Becoming  a Futurist

Spirit

• Faith

• Connectedness

• Community

• Mission

• Transmission

• Legacy

Page 59: Navigating the Future: Being and Becoming  a Futurist

Create Vision Based Scenarios

A scenario is a method for telling a story about the future. It can be based on reliable or speculative data.

Page 60: Navigating the Future: Being and Becoming  a Futurist

Scenarios: The Back Side of Vision

Scenario Planning Resources: http://www.well.com/~mb/scenario/

Page 61: Navigating the Future: Being and Becoming  a Futurist

Canadian 2020 Nursing Scenarios

• Technology eclipses care

• Control manage and measure

• Return to care

• The transformation

Toward 2020: Visions for Nursing Toward 2020: Visions for Nursing

Page 62: Navigating the Future: Being and Becoming  a Futurist

Strategic Conversations

• How plausible does the scenario seem?

• What thoughts does it bring to mind?

• What feelings does it generate?

Page 63: Navigating the Future: Being and Becoming  a Futurist

Strategic Conversations

• What are the implications for society, healthcare and nursing?

• If parts of the scenario are desirable what actions need to be taken to increase the chances of it happening?

• If parts are undesirable what actions need to be taken to prevent them form happening?

Page 64: Navigating the Future: Being and Becoming  a Futurist

Future Web Forums

http://www.wfs.org/inter.htm

http://weblogg-ed.com/2007/the-steep-unlearning-curve/

Page 65: Navigating the Future: Being and Becoming  a Futurist

Global Health EconomyMap of the Decade

http://www.iftf.org/features/ghe_map.html

Page 66: Navigating the Future: Being and Becoming  a Futurist

Future Forces Affecting Education 2006-2016

http://www.kwfdn.org/

Page 67: Navigating the Future: Being and Becoming  a Futurist

Being and Becoming a Futurist

• Pay attention to time and time-spirits.

• Learn about the future.

• Understand people’s reactions to learning about the future.

• Actively monitor industry trends and forecasts.

Page 68: Navigating the Future: Being and Becoming  a Futurist

Being and Becoming a Futurist

• Discern logical consequences of trends using futures thinking tools and techniques.

• Use emotional intelligence in change efforts.

• Create vision-based scenarios.

• Stimulate strategic conversations about espoused visions.

Page 69: Navigating the Future: Being and Becoming  a Futurist

Future Pacing

• What concepts, tools, techniques are most useful?

• How can information be used?

• Why is information important?

• Why care about the information?