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Natural Gas Update & Overview Prepared for 2014 South Carolina Energy Users Annual Meeting
Gary Alexander
Director, Customer Services & Business Development
April 25, 2014
Topics of Discussion
• Overview of CGT
• Update on Supply Picture
• Crazy Winter
• Capacity Considerations
• Economic Development
• Open Discussion
Key Points
• Supply Continues to Grow
• Capacity Constraints Impact Pricing Volatility
• New Infrastructure is Costly
• Timeline for New Infrastructure Can Exceed 3 Years
Overview of CGT
• Wholly owned subsidiary of SCANA
• FERC regulated interstate pipeline
• Formed November 2006 through the merger of SCG
Pipeline Inc. and South Carolina Pipeline Corporation
• 1500 miles of pipeline in Georgia and South Carolina
– Pipe sizes up to 24”
– Up to 1200 PSIG operating pressures
• Approximately 225 delivery meters
• Customers include LDC‟s, municipalities, power
generators, industrials, and marketers
CGT Overview Safe & Reliable
• Safety - CGT continued emphasis on safe operations
- Over 3 years without a lost time incident
- Benefits employees, customers, and the community
• Reliability - Operate pipeline to ensure ability to meet firm capacity obligations
- Extensive efforts in pipeline integrity and system maintenance to
ensure reliability and safety
- Proactive communications with customers on required activities to
minimize customer impact and assure reliability
Overview of CGT CGT Services
• Firm Services
– Firm Transportation (FT) • Reserved pipeline capacity
• Monthly demand charge based on daily demand
• Nominal usage fee
– Rate Schedule BH • Similar to FT
• Primary delivery point is displacement point
• Interruptible Services
– Interruptible Transportation (IT) • Serve as available
• Usage fee designed to be equal to 100% load factor FT
– Park & Loan (PAL)
CGT does not sell commodity
CGT Overview Throughput and Supply
• CGT transports over 125 billion cubic feet annually on
behalf of our customers
• Customers have access to global sources of supply through
connections with Southern Natural Gas, Elba Island, and Transco
CGT Supply Source Mix Physical Receipts
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
SNG 46% 36% 43% 36% 34% 29%
Southern LNG
(Elba Island) 37% 48% 31% 46% 40% 34%
Transco 17% 16% 26% 18% 26% 37%
Interconnect Trends Scheduled Receipts 2009 – 2013 (before netting displacement deliveries)
-
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
70,000,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Transco
SNG Aiken
SLNG Elba/PW
CGT Overview 2014 Throughput
2014 throughput down 3% versus 2013 YTD
(2013 was a record throughput year)
2014 YTD Throughput versus 2013 (Through April)
Industrial Municipal/LDC Power
Generation
Displacement
Up 2% Up 4% Down 14% Down 13%
• Cold Winter
• Number of OFOs likely reduced throughput
• Industrial throughput continues stable growth
CGT Overview 5 Year Trend by Sector (2013 was a record year for Throughput)
0
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,000
140,000,000
160,000,000
Industrial LDC Power Gen Displacement Total Throughput
5 Year Trend By Sector
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Sector 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Industrial 19,037,295 22,280,329 23,834,846 26,799,508 27,029,305
LDC 57,582,694 64,928,529 59,154,958 54,033,592 58,901,150
Power Gen 34,674,171 37,422,769 45,483,391 38,825,992 42,266,026
Displacement 0 644,061 460,090 2,116,632 7,322,987
Total Throughput 111,294,160 125,275,688 128,933,285 121,775,724 135,519,468
CGT Operational Challenges
• In a capacity constrained environment, operating a
reticulated pipeline is impacted by a number of issues
– Receipt and delivery combinations
– Inlet pressures and volumes
– Uniform hourly flow rates
– Non uniform hourly flow rates (6%)
– System pressures
– Line pack and BTU content
• All of the above affect the operation of the pipeline and
can impact the ability to schedule IT on any given day
CGT Overview OFO Summary
Summary of Operational Flow Orders
• During OFO‟s customers need to be within a defined tolerance of their
scheduled quantities (daily balancing on these days)
• OFO‟s do not necessarily require a capacity allocation
Winter of # OFOs Issued # OFO Days
06-07 4 6
07-08 2 4
08-09 2 4
09-10 2 14
10-11 7 23
11-12 (incl. Apr. and May 2012) 5 38
12-13 8 34
13-14 10 40
The American Shale Revolution
PGC: 2012
1,073 TCF shale
2,688 TCF total
24% INCREASE
in just two years
Source: Potential Gas Committee
(Includes Proved Reserves)
No nation produces more natural gas than the United States, and
the U.S. is forecast to become the world's top oil producer by 2015.
That Much Supply in the Market Area?
You Better Believe it!
• About half of U.S. natural gas
production growth to come
from this region by 2020.
• If the Marcellus Shale were a
country, its gas output would
rank seventh in the world,
surpassing Saudi Arabia, China
and Norway.
• Marcellus production could
surpass Canada before the
end of this year, leaving only
Iran, Qatar, and Russia as
larger producers.
Source: Platts; EIA
Infrastructure Constraints
• Increased supply resulting from shale gas production
has stabilized long term prices and driven demand
– Existing infrastructure is insufficient to bring all the
additional supply to markets
– Pipeline expansion projects are costly and time consuming
• Typically 3+ years to bring new capacity online
What Happened in January? OFOs and Pricing Spikes
• OFOs during January 2014
– Transco: 15 days
• $50 penalties
– SNG: 21 days
• $15 penalties
– CGT: 21 days
• $5 penalties
• Pricing Spikes
– Infrastructure
constraints coupled with
extreme demand led to
prices > $120/Dt for
delivered gas in some
areas
CGT Capacity Essentially Full Depending on specific combination of Receipts and Deliveries
Market Area Constraints North System - depends on
receipt
South System – posted as full
CGT Receipt Capacity Transco: Will likely require facilities
SNG: Available capacity on CGT
Growth and Future Expansions
• Since Nov. 2012, CGT has added 71,432 Dt of new FT
- Represents 21 contracts with 18 different companies
• General solicitation posting
– Oct. 29, 2012 – Nov. 30, 2012
– Customer commitments supporting two major projects
• 28,000 Dt commencing in mid-2014
– 2 companies
• 45,000 Dt commencing in 2015
– 2 Companies
• Other parties have inquired about additional expansions
Update: Second General Solicitation Posted May 30 through July 19
Posting was for new pipeline interconnect with Transco
to serve existing and new CGT markets. Contemplated
20 year terms and indicative demand charge of $16
• Significant interest received across system
• Have modeled over 70 different scenarios to identify optimal
commercially viable project
• Rates vary depending on participation level in the project
• For project identified, in discussions with parties responding to
General Solicitation with target in-service date of Nov 2017
• Models have indicated that future expansions may require even
higher rates – especially true for southern part of CGT system
What is driving expansion costs?
• CGT system generally consists of smaller
diameter pipe – approximately 72% of system
is 12 inch or smaller
• Key parts of CGT system limited by MAOP
• Recent expansions primarily compression
• Expansions involving new pipe are a more
expensive option
2013 SC Department of Commerce Announcements Representative list from multiple sources (70 Companies, 8043 jobs, $1.6 B investment)
Company Location Jobs Investment Time Warner Cable Lexington County 644 $24,000,000
Canfor Southern Pine Horry County 56 $3,600,000
Kiswire Inc. Newberry County 30 $15,000,000
Bericap North America Cherokee County 50 $29,000,000
Swift Group of Industries Clarendon County 60 $3,500,000
Lap Tech Industries York County 60 $4,500,000
Michelin North America Anderson County 100 $200,000,000
ICE Recycling LLC Florence County 15 $1,050,000
Outokumpu Stainless Bar Chester County 20 $18,000,000
Essex Holdings Inc Marion County 215 $54,400,000
Constantia Hueck Foils LLC Richland County 15 $12,000,000
Harbor Freight Tools USA Inc Dillon County 200 $75,000,000
Sunny Z Foods Inc Saluda County 150 $12,000,000
McLaughlin Body Company Anderson County 250 $22,000,000
Owens Corning Aiken County N/A $7,000,000
Alupress AG Laurens County 57 $19,900,000
Aqua City Inc Marion County 50 $1,500,000
PDM US Corp. York County 20 $1,330,000
Contec Inc Spartanburg County 60 $6,250,000
HARTMANN USA Inc York County 75 $18,000,000
SKF Group Charleston County 25 $3,000,000
Advanta Southeast Clarendon County 30 $3,500,000
Mediterranean Shipping Company Charleston County 30 $1,700,000
Angus-Palm Florence County 55 $13,000,000
Smooth-Bor Plastics Spartanburg County 22 $1,000,000
Davis Aircraft Products Georgetown County 100 $5,500,000
Fancy Pokket Corporation Lancaster County 68 $13,000,000
National Beverage Screen Printers Inc Barnwell County 80 $2,500,000
Dayco Products LLC Barnwell County 15 $2,000,000
continued
2013 SC Department of Commerce Announcements Representative list from multiple sources (70 Companies, 8043 jobs, $1.6 B investment)
Company Location Jobs Investment EcoDual Inc Beaufort County 307 $13,000,000
PTR Industries Horry County 145 $8,000,000
Exel, Inc+A63 York County 133 $38,000,000
Sportsman Boats Manufacturing Dorchester County 50 $35,000,000
Weber Automotive Charleston County 84 $51,000,000
Comact USA Dorchester County 40 $3,000,000
DLS Retreading Lancaster County 53 $2,500,000
Standard Textile Union County 15 $2,500,000
ZF Transmissions Laurens County 450 $175,000,000
Monteferro USA Orangeburg County 10 $2,100,000
2AM Group Richland County 100 $500,000
Edgewater Automation Spartanburg County 53 $3,000,000
Silcotech North America Inc York County 50 $3,500,000
Element Electronics Fairfield County 500 $7,500,000
DUER High Performance Composites Beaufort County 47 $1,000,000
Daimler Vans Manufacturing Charleston County 60 $4,600,000
Associated Hardwoods Cherokee County 28 $9,800,000
JN Fibers Inc Chester County 318 $45,000,000
Coroplast Tape Corporation York County 150 $12,000,000
Palmetto Synthetics Williamsburg County 20 $1,100,000
Colgate-Palmolive Company Greenwood County 300 $196,000,000
Ithaca Gun Company Horry County 120 $6,700,000
WasteZero Williamsburg County 27 $3,100,000
3D Systems York County 145 $10,000,000
American Tactical Imports Dorchester County 117 $2,700,000
Louis Hornick & Company Allendale County 125 $2,500,000
Mergon Corporation Anderson County 22 $4,400,000
Fitesa Simpsonville Greenville County 32 $50,000,000
Borgwarner Inc Oconee County 105 $24,600,000
continued
2013 SC Department of Commerce Announcements Representative list from multiple sources (70 Companies, 8043 jobs, $1.6 B investment)
Company Location Jobs Investment B3C Fuel Solutions Horry County 36 $305,000
Materials Science Corp Greenville County 23 $1,000,000 Ulbrich Procesion Flat Wire Oconee County N/A $5,000,000
Belk Inc Union County 170 $32,000,000 Flame Spray Laurens County 140 $9,100,000 McCall Farms Florence County 140 $19,300,000
Startek Inc Horry County 665 $10,000,000 Keer Group Lancaster County 501 $218,000,000
Canfor Southern Pine Darlington County 50 $8,000,000 Advanced Composite Materials Greenville County 10 $3,000,000
Valley Forge Flag Company Williamsburg County 100 $2,500,000 Quality Model Orangeburg County 26 $3,000,000
Highland Industires, Inc Chesterfield County 24 $4,100,000 8,043 $1,606,635,000
Economic Development Discussion
• Capacity situation can create confusion for some
• Access to natural gas is different than firm capacity
availability
• CGT can work with customers & distribution
companies to provide access (i.e. meter station,
lateral, etc.) in a much shorter time frame than
mainline capacity – service may need to be
interruptible or via capacity release
• Coordinate efforts and message so that capacity
constraints don‟t deter prospective customers and
negatively affect “Site Certification” efforts
CGT Capacity Empowers Customers
Commodity
• Commodity is where volatility
risk resides
• NYMEX futures prices range from
$4.70s to $4.90s thru March „15
• NYMEX futures prices below $5
through 2019
• Pricing spikes generally driving by
capacity constraints
• CGT customers are able to manage
their gas purchases to meet their
individual risk profile
CGT FT (per Dt)
• At 100% load factor, firm
transportation cost less than 29 cents per Dt
• FT ensures pipeline capacity is available to transport gas safely and reliably when needed
• Provides customers access to a global source of wholesale natural gas supply through CGT‟s pipeline interconnects
If you may need service…
• Contact CGT to discuss potential service needs
• Location, volume, pressure and timing are all key data
points
• In many cases, CGT can construct facilities with no
upfront capital costs if supported by firm service
agreement
• Key Point: Commitment to firm pipeline capacity
does not obligate customer to firm gas purchases
• CGT capacity ensures capacity is available to deliver
gas when operational or economic conditions warrant
Customer Service Philosophy
• Continued focus on customer service
• Proactive communications with customers
• Understand customer needs
• Help our customers be as successful as possible
• CGT will grow as our customers grow
Deliver value
Questions?
Thank you for your time!
Gary S. Alexander, PE Director, Customer Services & Business Development
803-217-2131 (office)
803-206-6261 (mobile)