natural gas, methane, and global warming robert howarth the david r. atkinson professor of ecology...
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Natural Gas, Methane, and Global Warming
Robert HowarthThe David R. Atkinson Professor of Ecology & Environmental Biology
Cornell University, Ithaca, NY USA
January 28, 2014
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(Hayhoe et al. 2002)
For just the release of carbon dioxide during combustion…..
Is natural gas a “bridge fuel?”
Natural gas 15
Diesel oil 20
Coal 25
g C of CO2 MJ-1 of energy
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Methane emissions – the Achilles’ heel of natural gas
• Natural gas is mostly methane.
• Methane is 2nd most important gas behind human-caused global warming.
• Methane is much more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide, so even small emissions matter.
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Carbon Dioxide Methane
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Marcellus Well Being “Finished” Marcellus Well Being “Finished” Outside Dimock, PA, June 2011Outside Dimock, PA, June 2011
Photo and FLIR Methane-Tuned Video Courtesy Frank Finan
Video
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http://www.loe.org/shows/segments.html?programID=12-P13-00002&segmentID=3
Bruce Gellerman, “Living on Earth,” Jan. 13, 2012, based on work of Nathan Phillips
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Pipeline accidents and explosions happen, due to large leaks…. ….. small leaks are ubiquitous.
Flames consume homes during a massive fire in a residential neighborhood September 9, 2010 in San Bruno, California. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)
Pipelines in US are old!
PHMSA 2009 Transmission Annual Data
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0
15
30
45
60
75
Low Estimate High Estimate Low Estimate High Estimate Surface-mined Deep-Mined
Shale Gas Conventional Gas Coal Diesel Oil
Gra
ms C
arbo
n pe
r MJ
Methane
Indirect CO2
Direct CO2
20-year time frame
Howarth et al. 2011
highmethane
highmethane
low methane
low methane
surfacedeep
Shale Gas Conventional Natural Gas
Coal Oil
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0% 3% 6% 9% 12%
4
3
2
1
0
Percent methane emission from natural gas
Gre
enho
use
gas
emis
sion
s re
lativ
e to
coa
l
Greenhouse gas consequences for natural gas compared to coal(compared over integrated 20-year time frame)
Better than coal
Worse than coal
ElectricityEPA 2011
Howarth et al. 2011
Extrapolated from NOAA studies
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Coal-powered plant
Natural gas
electricity
Heat pump
Gas burner
Domestic hot water heating
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0% 3% 6% 9% 12%
4
3
2
1
0
Percent methane emission from natural gas
Gre
enho
use
gas
emis
sion
s re
lativ
e to
coa
l
Greenhouse gas consequences for natural gas compared to coal(compared over integrated 20-year time frame)
Better than coal
Worse than coal
Electricity
Hot water
EPA 2011
Howarth et al. 2011
Extrapolated from NOAA studies
Water heated by natural gas has a very large
greenhouse gas footprint
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http://news.discovery.com/earth/alaskas-arctic-tundra-feeling-the-heat.html
1.5 oC threshold
2.0 oC threshold
Dangerous tipping points are only 15 to 35 years into the future.
Controlling methane is CRITICAL to the solution!
Shindell et al. 2012
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(Howarth et al. 2012, based on EPA (2011)
US National Methane Emissions for 2009
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Thanks for the invitation to participate.
Special thanks to Tony Ingraffea, Bongghi Hong, and Drew Shindell.
Funding: Park Foundation Wallace Global Fund Cornell University
Shale gas…. A bridge to nowhere