Natural Disaster Risk Hotspots:Practical Application

Margaret Arnold

Hazard Risk Management Team

World Bank

WB Disaster Mgmt Portfolio

International Bank for Reconstruction and Development

Largest provider of reconstruction and development assistance

Disaster management has been a key part of the Bank’s activities since its establishment

More than 550 projects amounting to over $43 billion since 1980

Towards a More Strategic Approach

Working since 1998 to:1. document links between poverty and

disasters2. improve response to disaster emergencies 3. build HRM capacity through training4. develop country case studies and AAA

work leading to investments in HRM5. facilitate integration of HRM into more

CASs and PRSPs

Framework for Disaster Risk Mgmt

Systematic treatment of HRM at policy and operational levels

Provide a framework for:1. Making disaster risk a standard feature of

relevant CASs and PRSPs2. Addressing disaster risk reduction through

standard sector investments 3. Assisting clients to develop proactive, national

strategies for HRM4. Introducing more effective financing and risk

transfer mechanisms

Aim to influence 3 main areas

Bank policy Knowledge management,

including skills training Lending instruments

Hotspots role in Risk Mgmt Framework

Policy/Strategy Level Country Assistance Strategies Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers

Project/Operational Level Standard Sector Investments Risk Reduction Projects Pre-planning for Emergency Recovery

Policy/strategy level

“Flag” countries with highest vulnerability Country Assistance Strategy Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers

Sl no. Name of the country % of total area at risk** % of population in Areas at risk**

Percent of GDP in areas at risk**

1 Vietnam 33.2 75.7 89.4

2 Albania 86.4 88.6 88.5

3 Colombia 21.2 84.7 86.6

4 Bangladesh 71.4 83.6 86.5

5 Turkey 73.0 80.9 83.3

6 Dominica 68.3 67.0 68.3

7 Nicaragua 21.6 68.7 67.9

8 Honduras 19.0 56.0 56.5

9 Haiti 44.4 47.9 56.0

10 Chile 5.2 64.9 67.7

11 Iran 31.7 69.8 66.5

12 Indonesia 11.5 67.4 62.3

13 Venezuela 4.9 61.2 65.9

14 Uzbekistan 9.3 65.6 65.5

15 South Africa 8.6 56.3 62.4

Target countries fy06-07

Target countries fy06-07

16 China 13.1 49.8 56.6

17 Kyrgyz Rep 8.3 51.3 53.4

18 Pakistan 9.0 40.1 41.6

19 Uganda 27.5 26.6

20 Somalia 15.4 53.3

21 Ethiopia 29.9 69.3

22 Sri Lanka Highly prone to floods, cyclones and tsunamis(source EM-DAT)

23 Afghanistan 7.2 46.0

24 Brazil Prone to floods and landslides(source :EM-DAT)

25 Yemen Prone to flood and landslides(source: EM-DAT)

26 India 22.1 47.7 49.6

27 Madagascar 15.7 56.0

28 Tanzania 27.7 53.7

29 Argentina 1.8 57.4 63.2

30 Romania 37.4 45.8 50.3

31 Algeria 3.1 49.3 48.3

32 Azerbaijan 15.6 42.3 42.4

Operational/project level

Sector Investment Operations Risk Reduction Operations Contingency Financing Mechanisms

Sector Investment Operations

protection of investments in high risk areas Terms of Reference for risk assessment as part of

project preparation initial hazard identification methods

risk management throughout project design and implementation evaluation of loss risks in expected rate of return adherence to hazard resistant standards

Risk Reduction Operations

countries with high disaster risks frequent disasters, significant losses frequent emergency reconstruction projects

project components may include: risk assessment policy review/reform institutional strengthening funds for high-priority risk reduction measures risk transfer mechanisms (insurance, contingency funds,

catastrophe bonds, commodity hedging, etc.) e.g., Columbia, Vietnam

Emergency Recovery Projects:Contingency Arrangements

advance planning for recovery and resource allocation

emergency reconstruction standards and procedures pre-identified

reduced interest rates, expedited approval for certified countries

pre-identification of risk reduction measures for post-emergency funding

Next steps

World Bank to publish Volume 2 (case studies) create internet access to Hotspots input data continue to improve data quality (on hazards and

economic losses) begin to move from static to dynamic risk

assessment for disaster early warning Integrate into WB Hazard Risk Management

Framework “portal”