NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOCUS TOWARD IMPACT-BASED ... · • National Academy of Public Administration (NAPA) – 2010 ... it can not ac\൴ in a silo. A few years ago we began a
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AUG Conference 2018 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOCUS TOWARD IMPACT-BASED DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES; APPLICATIONS TO ALERT USERS IN CALIFORNIA Eric Boldt Warning Coordination Meteorologist NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard 805 988-6623
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOCUS TOWARD IMPACT-BASED DECISION
SUPPORT SERVICES; APPLICATIONS TO ALERT USERS IN CALIFORNIA
Eric Boldt
Warning Coordination Meteorologist
NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard
805 988-6623
AUG Conference 2018
EVOLVING TOWARD IMPACT-BASED DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES
• What does IDSS mean and why is the NWS changing?
• How does this make any difference to ALERT Users or public agencies in general?
AUG Conference 2018
HOW DID NWS GET HERE?
• Weather Service Modernization Act – 1992• Physical and field structural changes, installation of Doppler Radars
• National Academy of Public Administration (NAPA) – 2010• Congress directed NWS to conduct assessment • Recommendations to advance NWS with evolving weather, water, and
climate services into the future• Improve NWS operations and services to the weather enterprise and
core partners
AUG Conference 2018
OWA - “The NWS must shift from a predominately production-oriented culture to a more flexible, agile, face-to-face and on-demand customer-centric one..”
2017 WEATHER ACT
HOW TO MEET SOCIETY’S NEEDS?
WCM position written into law!
Presenter
Presentation Notes
OWA completed in 2015-16 suggesting how the NWS can change a product-driven culture toward a more flexible customer-based organization. The 2017 Weather Act states that IDSS is the NWS focus and the primary role of the WCM in each office.
AUG Conference 2018
IT’S NOT EASY, MANY USERS WITH DIFFERENT NEEDS
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Population growth trends by county through 2030 with each block proportional to a county’s population density. Trends of growth along coasts and in cities are projected to continue.
AUG Conference 2018
PUBLIC AWARENESS & RESPONSE
Weather-Ready Nation
Society is prepared for and responds to weather-
dependent events
Presenter
Presentation Notes
As the NWS transforms the way it operates and performs to help people prepare for and respond to severe weather, it can not act in a silo. A few years ago we began a grassroots campaign to reach out to partners both public and private, to help us with this initiative by becoming WRN Ambassadors. In a community approach everyone helps to promote preparedness and response to impending weather events.
AUG Conference 2018
EVOLVING TO ACHIEVE A WEATHER-READY NATION
• Many steps underway at NWS offices to meet IDSS demands• Building a more flexible workforce – tools and training
• Streamline forecast processes – National Blend of Models
• Match workforce to workload – collaborate national to local NWS
• Supporting innovation, science, and technology – autolauncher, GOES16/17
• Engage, test, & implement changes to meet IDSS demand
EnhancedIDSS
Presenter
Presentation Notes
How will NWS make changes toward a WRN? Many programs underway in local NWS offices as well as regional and national NWS offices. Looking internally at staffing and how best to utilize our strengths, streamlining some of the computer modeling challenges to free up more staff time, improving collaboration with experts across the spectrum of NWS offices, and supporting new science and technology. The majority of these programs are currently being tested and modified to meet the IDSS needs of each office.
AUG Conference 2018
HOW ARE PARTNERS LIKE YOU BENEFITING?
• Better heads-up storm awareness
• Better access to NWS staff
• Improving communication & messaging
• Resourcing for incidents and training exercises
Presenter
Presentation Notes
How are partners benefiting from NWS changes. You are already seeing the results with: Better storm awareness in advance Better access to NWS staff Improving communication and messaging from NWS offices NWS staff available for deployment to incidents, EOC’s, and training exercises
AUG Conference 2018
EMAIL, WEBINAR, YOUTUBE, LIVE UPDATES
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Better storm awareness – direct heads-up emails, webinars for larger storm impact situations, YouTube recorded briefings and outlooks, live Facebook or Periscope briefings and special topics.
AUG Conference 2018
ACCESS TO NWS STAFF
January 5, 2018 press conference
NWSChat viewer
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Better access to NWS staff - NWSChat rooms, phone conference calls/briefings, press conferences, preparedness meetings, etc.
AUG Conference 2018
COMMUNICATION & MESSAGING
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Improving communication & messaging - social media postings, hazard matrices, impact-based hazards, warning simplification, texting, etc.
AUG Conference 2018
RESOURCING FOR INCIDENTS AND TRAINING
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Resourcing for deployment to EOC or ICP during incidents, tabletop to functional exercises, and other training opportunities
AUG Conference 2018
GOES-16 (EAST)/17 (WEST) IMPROVEMENTSLaunched Nov. 2017 and Apr. 2018
3X data, 4X resolution, 5X faster and lightning mapping
AUG Conference 2018
GOES-16/17 CAPABILITIESVisible/Dust
Blowing dust in pink
AUG Conference 2018
GOES-16/17 CAPABILITIESFire/Smoke Detection
AUG Conference 2018
GOES-16/17 CAPABILITIESStorm Intensity
AUG Conference 2018
DROUGHT & WILDFIRE IN THE WEST
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Drought continues over the southern half of CA with below normal precipitation over most of the state since the start of the WY. More large wildfires are possible this summer and fall due to a continued precipitation deficit and a new grass crop. New burn scars leave the foothills and mountains susceptible to erosion and damaging debris flows when heavy rain moves over the area. Thomas Fire debris flow mapping from the USGS following the fire shows where watershed basins have the highest probability of generating a debris flow during one inch per hour rain rates.
AUG Conference 2018
MONTECITO, CA DEBRIS FLOW JAN. 9, 2018
Montecito
Presenter
Presentation Notes
The western wing of the Thomas Fire in the watersheds above Montecito, CA as shown in the red burn scar region. This was easily the most damaging and deadly debris flow in southern California since December 2003 (Devore, CA).
AUG Conference 2018
ALERT DATA & DEBRIS FLOWS
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Montecito Rainfall January 9, 2018
5-min Rate Cumulative
NWS ALERT gauge
5-minute rainfall rates lead to NWS warning decision-making
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Montecito debris flow on January 9, 2018 and 5-minute rain rate data. Monitoring all available rain gauge data, especially ALERT gauges in real-time was key to decision-making for NWS forecasters to issue a timely flash flood warning. Nearly half of the rainfall total (1.5 inch) for the entire January 9th storm fell in just 15 minutes in Montecito.
