national symposium on student retention 2015 presentation
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: National Symposium on Student Retention 2015 Presentation](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070514/587e358e1a28ab9f5d8b498b/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
www.mhc.ab.ca
A Predictive Model of Canadian College Student Retention
Dr. Morgan BlairMedicine Hat College
Dr. Peggy PattersonThe University of Calgary
![Page 2: National Symposium on Student Retention 2015 Presentation](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070514/587e358e1a28ab9f5d8b498b/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
www.mhc.ab.ca
Factors affecting Canadian college student retention are largely within an institution’s
control.
![Page 3: National Symposium on Student Retention 2015 Presentation](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070514/587e358e1a28ab9f5d8b498b/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
www.mhc.ab.ca
Retention among Canadian college
students deserves more
attention
Observations from this
research add to the sparse
literature on this topic
You can use the results to develop
retention strategies
![Page 4: National Symposium on Student Retention 2015 Presentation](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070514/587e358e1a28ab9f5d8b498b/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
www.mhc.ab.ca
Retention among Canadian
college students deserves more
attention
Observations from this
research add to the sparse
literature on this topic
You can use the results to
develop retention strategies
![Page 5: National Symposium on Student Retention 2015 Presentation](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070514/587e358e1a28ab9f5d8b498b/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
www.mhc.ab.ca
1. Despite abundant research on American samples, we don’t know much about Canadian college student retention
specifically.
![Page 6: National Symposium on Student Retention 2015 Presentation](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070514/587e358e1a28ab9f5d8b498b/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
www.mhc.ab.ca
“we cannot assume that conclusions based on [American] research are equally
applicable to Canada”-Grayson and Grayson (2003)
![Page 7: National Symposium on Student Retention 2015 Presentation](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070514/587e358e1a28ab9f5d8b498b/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
www.mhc.ab.ca
2. The majority of published literature is based on university samples.
![Page 8: National Symposium on Student Retention 2015 Presentation](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070514/587e358e1a28ab9f5d8b498b/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
www.mhc.ab.ca
College Students
Over age 25
First-generation
Racial minority Part-time
Academically unprepared
Low SES
![Page 9: National Symposium on Student Retention 2015 Presentation](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070514/587e358e1a28ab9f5d8b498b/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
www.mhc.ab.ca
3. Environmental changes in the Canadian context are forcing institutions to look at
retention in greater detail.
![Page 10: National Symposium on Student Retention 2015 Presentation](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070514/587e358e1a28ab9f5d8b498b/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
www.mhc.ab.ca
Overarching purpose: Improve Canadian college student success and
retention Inform policy and practice, guide allocation of
resources
![Page 11: National Symposium on Student Retention 2015 Presentation](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070514/587e358e1a28ab9f5d8b498b/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
www.mhc.ab.ca
What are the dynamics of within-year retention among Canadian community college students?
1. What is the estimated rate of retention?
2. What are the background and academic characteristics that predict retention?
3. Do the predictive models differ by institution?
4. Do the predictive models differ by credential?
![Page 12: National Symposium on Student Retention 2015 Presentation](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070514/587e358e1a28ab9f5d8b498b/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
www.mhc.ab.ca
Retention among Canadian college
students deserves more
attention
Observations from this
research add to the sparse
literature on this topic
You can use the results to develop
retention strategies
![Page 13: National Symposium on Student Retention 2015 Presentation](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070514/587e358e1a28ab9f5d8b498b/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
www.mhc.ab.ca
Dynamics of
Retention
Theory
LiteratureData
Mining
![Page 14: National Symposium on Student Retention 2015 Presentation](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070514/587e358e1a28ab9f5d8b498b/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
www.mhc.ab.ca
• Use of social structure• Reproduction of social class via accessibility to education
Bordieau’s Social Capital Theory
• Traits influence commitment & integration• Integration influences commitment
Tinto’s Student Integration Model
• Behavior influenced by attitudes• Attitudes influence by experience
Bean & Metzner’s Student Attrition Model
• Background and cognitive factors influence retentionSwail et al.’s Model of Retention & Achievement
• Input and environmental factors interact to produce outcomes
Astin’s Input-Environment-Output Model
![Page 15: National Symposium on Student Retention 2015 Presentation](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070514/587e358e1a28ab9f5d8b498b/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
www.mhc.ab.ca
Similarities• Discrete variables• Inter-relationships• Multifaceted• Individual or
environmental
Differences• Role of student• Institutional vs.
student perspective
![Page 16: National Symposium on Student Retention 2015 Presentation](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070514/587e358e1a28ab9f5d8b498b/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
www.mhc.ab.ca
Natural phenomena
Inter-relationship
s
Discrete variables
Complex analyses
Describes interaction Institutional
Perspective
![Page 17: National Symposium on Student Retention 2015 Presentation](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070514/587e358e1a28ab9f5d8b498b/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
www.mhc.ab.ca
Retention refers to an academic institution’s ability to ensure that students enroll and re-enroll.
![Page 18: National Symposium on Student Retention 2015 Presentation](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070514/587e358e1a28ab9f5d8b498b/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
www.mhc.ab.ca
Student Input Dependent children Grade 12 math Academic aspirations Goal commitment Institutional commitment 1st generation Age Gender Marital status Aboriginal status High school average
Environmental Friends attend same college Family attend same college Hours studying Hours working at job Housing Family emotional support Family financial support Student loans Credit load Grade point average Credential Institution
![Page 19: National Symposium on Student Retention 2015 Presentation](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070514/587e358e1a28ab9f5d8b498b/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
www.mhc.ab.ca
1. Total sample2. College A only3. College B only4. University Transfer students5. Students enrolled in parchment programs6. Students enrolled in upgrading/non-parchment
programs
![Page 20: National Symposium on Student Retention 2015 Presentation](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070514/587e358e1a28ab9f5d8b498b/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
www.mhc.ab.ca
University Transfer
Parchment Programs
Upgrading & Other
![Page 21: National Symposium on Student Retention 2015 Presentation](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070514/587e358e1a28ab9f5d8b498b/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
www.mhc.ab.ca
1. Retention rates differ by credential.
![Page 22: National Symposium on Student Retention 2015 Presentation](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070514/587e358e1a28ab9f5d8b498b/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
www.mhc.ab.ca
Total S
ample
Colleg
e A
Colleg
e B
Univers
ity Tran
sfer
Parchm
ent
Upgrad
ing/N
on-pa
rchmen
t0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%83.6% 83.9% 82.9% 88.0% 86.3%
71.9%
![Page 23: National Symposium on Student Retention 2015 Presentation](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070514/587e358e1a28ab9f5d8b498b/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
www.mhc.ab.ca
2. GPA and full-time enrolment are the strongest predictors of retention.
![Page 24: National Symposium on Student Retention 2015 Presentation](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070514/587e358e1a28ab9f5d8b498b/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
www.mhc.ab.ca
• Full-time enrolment (OR=5.92)• GPA (OR=4.10)Total Sample
• Full-time enrolment (OR=5.34)• GPA (OR=3.88)College A
• Full-time enrolment (OR=19.22)• GPA (OR=18.59)College B
![Page 25: National Symposium on Student Retention 2015 Presentation](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070514/587e358e1a28ab9f5d8b498b/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
www.mhc.ab.ca
3. Subgroups exist by credential:a) Lower number of hours spent working may predict retention among UT students.
b) Goal commitment may predict retention among students enrolled in upgrading.
![Page 26: National Symposium on Student Retention 2015 Presentation](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070514/587e358e1a28ab9f5d8b498b/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
www.mhc.ab.ca
• Full-time enrolment (OR=5.11)• GPA (OR=4.10)• Hours employed (OR=5.87; 4.69)
University Transfer
• Full-time enrolment (OR=9.44)• GPA (OR=13.89)Parchment
• Full-time enrolment (OR=2.93)• Goal commitment (OR=3.77)
Upgrading & Non-Parchment
![Page 27: National Symposium on Student Retention 2015 Presentation](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070514/587e358e1a28ab9f5d8b498b/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
www.mhc.ab.ca
4. Factors affecting Canadian college student retention are largely within an
institution’s control.
![Page 28: National Symposium on Student Retention 2015 Presentation](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070514/587e358e1a28ab9f5d8b498b/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
www.mhc.ab.ca
Input Environmental
F/T
GPA
Work
Goals
![Page 29: National Symposium on Student Retention 2015 Presentation](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070514/587e358e1a28ab9f5d8b498b/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
www.mhc.ab.ca
Retention among Canadian college
students deserves more
attention
Observations from this
research add to the sparse
literature on this topic
You can use the results to develop
retention strategies
![Page 30: National Symposium on Student Retention 2015 Presentation](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070514/587e358e1a28ab9f5d8b498b/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
www.mhc.ab.ca
University Transfer
• GPA >50th• Full-time• Work <10
Parchment
• GPA >50th• Full-time
Upgrading & Other
• Full-time• Goal
commitment
How can your institution use the results?
What strategies can you develop?
![Page 31: National Symposium on Student Retention 2015 Presentation](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070514/587e358e1a28ab9f5d8b498b/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
www.mhc.ab.ca
Continue the conversation online:http://morganjblair.edublogs.org/
![Page 32: National Symposium on Student Retention 2015 Presentation](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070514/587e358e1a28ab9f5d8b498b/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
www.mhc.ab.ca
Results should inform but not drive decisions.
![Page 33: National Symposium on Student Retention 2015 Presentation](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070514/587e358e1a28ab9f5d8b498b/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
www.mhc.ab.ca
Improving student success and retention is up to you.
![Page 34: National Symposium on Student Retention 2015 Presentation](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070514/587e358e1a28ab9f5d8b498b/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
www.mhc.ab.ca
Contact: Morgan Blair
Director, Strategic Research & AnalysisMedicine Hat College