national security strategic mineral lfar

7/31/2019 National Security Strategic Mineral LFAR

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International Market And Political Issues Likely To

Diminish U.S. Ability To Obtain Strategic Minerals

INTL 650-01

Instructor: Kristan

Wheaton

October 10, 2012


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About This Document

The national security team composed this joint LFAR from remote locations beginning

on the evening of October 8, 2012 and completing on October 10, 2012. The research in

this LFAR was conducted over the prior week (October 2 through October 7) through

Google News searches and use of the Strategic Minerals blog. No source is more than 12

months old.

The national security team was tasked with answering the following question: what

implications will international issues related to critical minerals have on U.S. national

security in the next three to five years? The team seeks to create an all-encompassing

answer to this question, one that draws from multiple sources and regions and which

can be distilled into the most pertinent findings for American foreign policy.

Source reliability was calculated based on the Trust Scale and Web Site Evaluation

Worksheet. Analytic confidence was determined based on the Peterson Table of Analytic

Confidence Assessment.


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Key Findings

Over the next three to five years, international issues including market and political

conditions are likely to diminish the United States ability to obtain strategic minerals.

It is highly likely that the Chinese government will continue to bring attention to

disputed regions like the Senkaku Islands, the Paracel Islands, and the Spratly

Islands in the next 12 to 24 months.

The South African national miners strike will likely continue to affect the global

supply of minerals.

It is likely the United States will implement more regulations to diminish the

quantity of central African conflict minerals being trafficked into the world

market in the next three to five years.

It is highly unlikely that the United States will exploit the Arctic region to reduce

its dependency on other nations for strategic minerals over the next three to five

years, despite abundant reserves in the region.


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Table Of Contents

About This Document

Key Findings

International Market And Political Issues Likely To Diminish U.S. Ability ToObtain Strategic Minerals

Subordinate Report 1: Asian Territorial Disputes

Subordinate Report 2: South African Mining Crisis

Subordinate Report 3: DRC Conflict Minerals

Subordinate Report 4: Arctic Resources

Annex A: Sources

Annex B: Methods and Process


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International Market And Political Issues Likely To

Diminish U.S. Ability To Obtain Strategic Minerals

Executive Summary:

The United States ability to obtain strategic minerals is likely to diminish over the next

three to five years due to international issues, including market and political conditions.

Key international issues include territory disputes around China, the South African

miners strike, attempted American prohibition of the use of conflict minerals, and U.S.

failure to develop long-term plans for resource extraction in the Arctic region.

Discussion:

The current state of global mineral affairs is not conducive for the purchase of strategic

minerals. Issues across the globe, ranging from overt national security conflicts to social

and political problems present a hostile climate for strategic mineral buyers.

Territorial disputes in Asia over several small chains of islands are straining relations in

the region. The Chinese government has made several bold moves over the past 9

months to draw attention to the disputed regions. The regions in question are suspected

to contain valuable resource deposits, and if they are obtained by the Chinese, it would

further consolidate Chinese control over the strategic and rare earth minerals market.

Chinese technology industries are already suspected of depleting the nations vast rare

earth supplies and may begin importing rare earth metalsas early as 2014.

The use of overt military force in this conflict is highly unlikelyand preliminary political

resolutions have begun. Japanese Prime MinisterYoshihiko Noda called for political

talks to contain economic fallout from the tensions in the South China Sea, echoing the

historic advice of former Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping. On October 1, the Chinese

delegation to the ASEAN announced it would offer 3 billion yuan (USD 474 million) for

a cooperative maritime fund for member nations. For more information, see

Supplemental Report 1.

The nationwide mine strike in South Africa has caused a price increase in the strategic

mineral platinum. Since the strikes began, theprice of platinum has risen 3 percent. OnSeptember 14, the price of platinum rose byUSD 42.60 to USD 1,649.60 per ounce. The

strikes in South Africas gold mineshalted 39 percentof its gold output.

Mine strikes in South Africa continue to affect the global mining industry. South Africa

produces75 percent of the worlds platinum and is the fifth-largest gold producer. As

many as80,000 miners(16 percent of South Africas total mining workforce) are
http://www.csl.army.mil/usacsl/publications/IP7_11.pdfhttp://www.csl.army.mil/usacsl/publications/IP7_11.pdfhttp://www.csl.army.mil/usacsl/publications/IP7_11.pdfhttp://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/12/business/global/china-a-rare-earths-giant-set-to-start-importing-the-elements.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/12/business/global/china-a-rare-earths-giant-set-to-start-importing-the-elements.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/12/business/global/china-a-rare-earths-giant-set-to-start-importing-the-elements.htmlhttp://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/23/us-china-japan-confrontation-idUSBRE88M0F220120923http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/23/us-china-japan-confrontation-idUSBRE88M0F220120923http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/23/us-china-japan-confrontation-idUSBRE88M0F220120923http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/china-unveils-474m-maritime-cooperation-fund-with-asean-amid-territorial-disputes/2012/10/05/fa751c82-0edb-11e2-ba6c-07bd866eb71a_story.htmlhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/business/china-unveils-474m-maritime-cooperation-fund-with-asean-amid-territorial-disputes/2012/10/05/fa751c82-0edb-11e2-ba6c-07bd866eb71a_story.htmlhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/business/china-unveils-474m-maritime-cooperation-fund-with-asean-amid-territorial-disputes/2012/10/05/fa751c82-0edb-11e2-ba6c-07bd866eb71a_story.htmlhttp://www.businessweek.com/ap/2012-09-12/platinum-prices-jump-as-mine-dispute-spreadshttp://www.businessweek.com/ap/2012-09-12/platinum-prices-jump-as-mine-dispute-spreadshttp://www.businessweek.com/ap/2012-09-12/platinum-prices-jump-as-mine-dispute-spreadshttp://www.businessweek.com/ap/2012-09-12/platinum-prices-jump-as-mine-dispute-spreadshttp://www.businessweek.com/ap/2012-09-12/platinum-prices-jump-as-mine-dispute-spreadshttp://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-09-25/anglogold-operations-halted-in-south-africa-as-strikes-spreadhttp://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-09-25/anglogold-operations-halted-in-south-africa-as-strikes-spreadhttp://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-09-25/anglogold-operations-halted-in-south-africa-as-strikes-spreadhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/business/south-african-union-accuses-top-platinum-producer-of-racism-as-tension-deepens-with-miners/2012/10/08/79b9a6de-1157-11e2-9a39-1f5a7f6fe945_story.htmlhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/business/south-african-union-accuses-top-platinum-producer-of-racism-as-tension-deepens-with-miners/2012/10/08/79b9a6de-1157-11e2-9a39-1f5a7f6fe945_story.htmlhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/business/south-african-union-accuses-top-platinum-producer-of-racism-as-tension-deepens-with-miners/2012/10/08/79b9a6de-1157-11e2-9a39-1f5a7f6fe945_story.htmlhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/business/south-african-union-accuses-top-platinum-producer-of-racism-as-tension-deepens-with-miners/2012/10/08/79b9a6de-1157-11e2-9a39-1f5a7f6fe945_story.htmlhttp://www.foxnews.com/world/2012/10/08/south-africa-union-accuses-platinum-producer-racism/http://www.foxnews.com/world/2012/10/08/south-africa-union-accuses-platinum-producer-racism/http://www.foxnews.com/world/2012/10/08/south-africa-union-accuses-platinum-producer-racism/http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/south-african-union-accuses-top-platinum-producer-of-racism-as-tension-deepens-with-miners/2012/10/08/79b9a6de-1157-11e2-9a39-1f5a7f6fe945_story.htmlhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/business/south-african-union-accuses-top-platinum-producer-of-racism-as-tension-deepens-with-miners/2012/10/08/79b9a6de-1157-11e2-9a39-1f5a7f6fe945_story.htmlhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/business/south-african-union-accuses-top-platinum-producer-of-racism-as-tension-deepens-with-miners/2012/10/08/79b9a6de-1157-11e2-9a39-1f5a7f6fe945_story.htmlhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/business/south-african-union-accuses-top-platinum-producer-of-racism-as-tension-deepens-with-miners/2012/10/08/79b9a6de-1157-11e2-9a39-1f5a7f6fe945_story.htmlhttp://www.foxnews.com/world/2012/10/08/south-africa-union-accuses-platinum-producer-racism/http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/south-african-union-accuses-top-platinum-producer-of-racism-as-tension-deepens-with-miners/2012/10/08/79b9a6de-1157-11e2-9a39-1f5a7f6fe945_story.htmlhttp://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-09-25/anglogold-operations-halted-in-south-africa-as-strikes-spreadhttp://www.businessweek.com/ap/2012-09-12/platinum-prices-jump-as-mine-dispute-spreadshttp://www.businessweek.com/ap/2012-09-12/platinum-prices-jump-as-mine-dispute-spreadshttp://www.businessweek.com/ap/2012-09-12/platinum-prices-jump-as-mine-dispute-spreadshttp://www.washingtonpost.com/business/china-unveils-474m-maritime-cooperation-fund-with-asean-amid-territorial-disputes/2012/10/05/fa751c82-0edb-11e2-ba6c-07bd866eb71a_story.htmlhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/business/china-unveils-474m-maritime-cooperation-fund-with-asean-amid-territorial-disputes/2012/10/05/fa751c82-0edb-11e2-ba6c-07bd866eb71a_story.htmlhttp://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/23/us-china-japan-confrontation-idUSBRE88M0F220120923http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/23/us-china-japan-confrontation-idUSBRE88M0F220120923http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/12/business/global/china-a-rare-earths-giant-set-to-start-importing-the-elements.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/12/business/global/china-a-rare-earths-giant-set-to-start-importing-the-elements.htmlhttp://www.csl.army.mil/usacsl/publications/IP7_11.pdfhttp://www.csl.army.mil/usacsl/publications/IP7_11.pdf


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striking. South Africas mining industry has been in turmoil since August, when

mineworkers at a Lonmin mine staged a strike that led to police shooting and killing 34

workers in Marikana. The unrest is spreading to other mines. For more information, see


Fighters stagingrebellionsin the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) are being fundedby conflict minerals. Armed groups control half of the production of these minerals,

generating a profit ofUSD 225 millionannually. Almost everyelectronic consumer

productworldwide uses some form of conflict minerals. Since 2008, the United States

has provided $950 million USD inassistanceto the DRC, including military education

and training in conflict mitigation.

M23 militants are running mining camps in the DRC that mine conflict minerals.

Participants in theAfrican summit agreed to dispatch a neutral force in an attempt to

drive the M23 militants out, but analysts believe this will have little effect on the

militants. In an attempt to stop using conflict minerals, including tantalum, tin, gold,

and tungsten, theSecurity and Exchange Commissionissued a rule that all companies

must report use of these minerals, so as to attempt to force companies to find their

minerals elsewhere. TheUnited States Chamber of Commerce recommends a more

effective regulation by implementing managerial accountability, hiring market based

experts, and enhancing cost-benefit analysis. For further information, see


Historic meltingof the polar ice caps has led to an increase of available resources in the

Arctic Circle including rare earth minerals, oil, and gas--experts estimate Arcticresources holdtrillions of dollarsin potential profits. Many countries are rushing to

establish a diplomatic presence in the Arctic, most notably China which has made plans

for up to500 diplomatic personnelin Iceland alone. Others, such as Canada, are

expandingArctic territories.

Despite the increasing Arctic activity, the U.S. is falling behind. Byfailing to accedeto

the Law of the Sea Treaty, the U.S. has failed to lead the international community in the

Arctic region. Chinese companies, many withgovernment ties, haveaggressively

pursuedArctic contracts and resources. Although other Arctic nations such as Russia

are continuing recent militarization campaignsin the Arctic region, the U.S. has failed toprepare, leaving ports and the U.S. Coast Guard grossly unready and vulnerable. For

further information seeSupplemental Report 4.
http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/09/19/safrica-mines-idINL5E8KJ2QT20120919http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/09/19/safrica-mines-idINL5E8KJ2QT20120919http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/09/19/safrica-mines-idINL5E8KJ2QT20120919http://www.rdmag.com/news/2012/09/blood-diamonds-ore-ge-takes-conflict-mineralshttp://www.rdmag.com/news/2012/09/blood-diamonds-ore-ge-takes-conflict-mineralshttp://www.rdmag.com/news/2012/09/blood-diamonds-ore-ge-takes-conflict-mineralshttp://www.rdmag.com/news/2012/09/blood-diamonds-ore-ge-takes-conflict-mineralshttp://www.rdmag.com/news/2012/09/blood-diamonds-ore-ge-takes-conflict-mineralshttp://www.rdmag.com/news/2012/09/blood-diamonds-ore-ge-takes-conflict-mineralshttp://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/20/business/use-of-conflict-minerals-gets-more-scrutiny.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/20/business/use-of-conflict-minerals-gets-more-scrutiny.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/20/business/use-of-conflict-minerals-gets-more-scrutiny.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/20/business/use-of-conflict-minerals-gets-more-scrutiny.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0http://www.globalwitness.org/sites/default/files/The_Cost_of_Business_as_Usual.pdfhttp://www.globalwitness.org/sites/default/files/The_Cost_of_Business_as_Usual.pdfhttp://www.globalwitness.org/sites/default/files/The_Cost_of_Business_as_Usual.pdfhttp://communities.washingtontimes.com/neighborhood/africa-relayed/2012/sep/22/congo-question-can-regional-powers-use-force-pacif/http://communities.washingtontimes.com/neighborhood/africa-relayed/2012/sep/22/congo-question-can-regional-powers-use-force-pacif/http://www.sec.gov/news/press/2012/2012-163.htmhttp://www.sec.gov/news/press/2012/2012-163.htmhttp://www.sec.gov/news/press/2012/2012-163.htmhttp://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/foreign-policy/244559-broken-sec-pushes-unworkable-rules-on-conflict-mineralshttp://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/foreign-policy/244559-broken-sec-pushes-unworkable-rules-on-conflict-mineralshttps://docs.google.com/document/d/1BwdJpSaQFqDXm_YKn-MO5Zyl8dQwHfMqV0j9cqaA6Gc/edit#bookmark=id.b3oz7l7474gahttps://docs.google.com/document/d/1BwdJpSaQFqDXm_YKn-MO5Zyl8dQwHfMqV0j9cqaA6Gc/edit#bookmark=id.b3oz7l7474gahttps://docs.google.com/document/d/1BwdJpSaQFqDXm_YKn-MO5Zyl8dQwHfMqV0j9cqaA6Gc/edit#bookmark=id.b3oz7l7474gahttp://www.thespec.com/news/world/article/804071--race-is-on-for-arctic-treasureshttp://www.thespec.com/news/world/article/804071--race-is-on-for-arctic-treasureshttp://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/arctic-melt-opens-door-big-oils-next-boomhttp://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/arctic-melt-opens-door-big-oils-next-boomhttp://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/arctic-melt-opens-door-big-oils-next-boomhttp://rendezvous.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/05/china-and-the-northern-great-game/http://rendezvous.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/05/china-and-the-northern-great-game/http://rendezvous.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/05/china-and-the-northern-great-game/http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/National/Canada+poised+massive+undersea+land+grab+Arctic+Atlantic/7345687/story.htmlhttp://www.montrealgazette.com/news/National/Canada+poised+massive+undersea+land+grab+Arctic+Atlantic/7345687/story.htmlhttp://www.montrealgazette.com/news/National/Canada+poised+massive+undersea+land+grab+Arctic+Atlantic/7345687/story.htmlhttp://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/us-far-behind-race-the-arctichttp://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/us-far-behind-race-the-arctichttp://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/us-far-behind-race-the-arctichttp://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/49086436/ns/world_news-the_new_york_times/#.UHGLc03A825http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/49086436/ns/world_news-the_new_york_times/#.UHGLc03A825http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/49086436/ns/world_news-the_new_york_times/#.UHGLc03A825http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/49086436/ns/world_news-the_new_york_times/#.UHGLc03A825http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/49086436/ns/world_news-the_new_york_times/#.UHGLc03A825http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/49086436/ns/world_news-the_new_york_times/#.UHGLc03A825http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/49086436/ns/world_news-the_new_york_times/#.UHGLc03A825http://www.eurasiareview.com/03102012-restructuring-arctic-stability-and-global-security-analysis/http://www.eurasiareview.com/03102012-restructuring-arctic-stability-and-global-security-analysis/http://www.eurasiareview.com/03102012-restructuring-arctic-stability-and-global-security-analysis/http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/us-far-behind-race-the-arctichttp://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/us-far-behind-race-the-arctichttp://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/us-far-behind-race-the-arctichttp://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/us-far-behind-race-the-arctichttps://docs.google.com/document/d/1BwdJpSaQFqDXm_YKn-MO5Zyl8dQwHfMqV0j9cqaA6Gc/edit#bookmark=id.yqzi94vvxoouhttps://docs.google.com/document/d/1BwdJpSaQFqDXm_YKn-MO5Zyl8dQwHfMqV0j9cqaA6Gc/edit#bookmark=id.yqzi94vvxoouhttps://docs.google.com/document/d/1BwdJpSaQFqDXm_YKn-MO5Zyl8dQwHfMqV0j9cqaA6Gc/edit#bookmark=id.yqzi94vvxoouhttps://docs.google.com/document/d/1BwdJpSaQFqDXm_YKn-MO5Zyl8dQwHfMqV0j9cqaA6Gc/edit#bookmark=id.yqzi94vvxoouhttps://docs.google.com/document/d/1BwdJpSaQFqDXm_YKn-MO5Zyl8dQwHfMqV0j9cqaA6Gc/edit#bookmark=id.yqzi94vvxoouhttp://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/us-far-behind-race-the-arctichttp://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/us-far-behind-race-the-arctichttp://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/us-far-behind-race-the-arctichttp://www.eurasiareview.com/03102012-restructuring-arctic-stability-and-global-security-analysis/http://www.eurasiareview.com/03102012-restructuring-arctic-stability-and-global-security-analysis/http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/49086436/ns/world_news-the_new_york_times/#.UHGLc03A825http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/49086436/ns/world_news-the_new_york_times/#.UHGLc03A825http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/49086436/ns/world_news-the_new_york_times/#.UHGLc03A825http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/49086436/ns/world_news-the_new_york_times/#.UHGLc03A825http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/49086436/ns/world_news-the_new_york_times/#.UHGLc03A825http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/us-far-behind-race-the-arctichttp://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/us-far-behind-race-the-arctichttp://www.montrealgazette.com/news/National/Canada+poised+massive+undersea+land+grab+Arctic+Atlantic/7345687/story.htmlhttp://www.montrealgazette.com/news/National/Canada+poised+massive+undersea+land+grab+Arctic+Atlantic/7345687/story.htmlhttp://rendezvous.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/05/china-and-the-northern-great-game/http://rendezvous.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/05/china-and-the-northern-great-game/http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/arctic-melt-opens-door-big-oils-next-boomhttp://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/arctic-melt-opens-door-big-oils-next-boomhttp://www.thespec.com/news/world/article/804071--race-is-on-for-arctic-treasureshttps://docs.google.com/document/d/1BwdJpSaQFqDXm_YKn-MO5Zyl8dQwHfMqV0j9cqaA6Gc/edit#bookmark=id.b3oz7l7474gahttps://docs.google.com/document/d/1BwdJpSaQFqDXm_YKn-MO5Zyl8dQwHfMqV0j9cqaA6Gc/edit#bookmark=id.b3oz7l7474gahttp://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/foreign-policy/244559-broken-sec-pushes-unworkable-rules-on-conflict-mineralshttp://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/foreign-policy/244559-broken-sec-pushes-unworkable-rules-on-conflict-mineralshttp://www.sec.gov/news/press/2012/2012-163.htmhttp://www.sec.gov/news/press/2012/2012-163.htmhttp://communities.washingtontimes.com/neighborhood/africa-relayed/2012/sep/22/congo-question-can-regional-powers-use-force-pacif/http://communities.washingtontimes.com/neighborhood/africa-relayed/2012/sep/22/congo-question-can-regional-powers-use-force-pacif/http://www.globalwitness.org/sites/default/files/The_Cost_of_Business_as_Usual.pdfhttp://www.globalwitness.org/sites/default/files/The_Cost_of_Business_as_Usual.pdfhttp://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/20/business/use-of-conflict-minerals-gets-more-scrutiny.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/20/business/use-of-conflict-minerals-gets-more-scrutiny.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/20/business/use-of-conflict-minerals-gets-more-scrutiny.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0http://www.rdmag.com/news/2012/09/blood-diamonds-ore-ge-takes-conflict-mineralshttp://www.rdmag.com/news/2012/09/blood-diamonds-ore-ge-takes-conflict-mineralshttp://www.rdmag.com/news/2012/09/blood-diamonds-ore-ge-takes-conflict-mineralshttp://www.rdmag.com/news/2012/09/blood-diamonds-ore-ge-takes-conflict-mineralshttp://in.reuters.com/article/2012/09/19/safrica-mines-idINL5E8KJ2QT20120919http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/09/19/safrica-mines-idINL5E8KJ2QT20120919


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Number of Asian Territorial Disputes Likely To Increase;

Strategic Minerals Driving Conflict

Executive Summary:

It is highly likely that the Chinese government will continue to bring attention to

disputed regions like the Senkaku Islands, the Paracel Islands, and the Spratly Islands in

the next 12 to 24 months. These islands likely contain valuable strategic mineral

resources as well as offshore oil and gas deposits. The number of territorial disputes in

the region of the South and East China Seas and their volatility are both likely to

increase.

Discussion:

In September, political tensions came

to a crescendoas China protested

Japans continued occupation of the

Senkaku Islands, 100 miles north of

Taiwan. Experts believe the islands

contain valuable strategic mineral

deposits. The uproar is one event in a

series of ongoing disputes involving the

PRC. In July, the Peoples Liberation

Army announcedit would send a

garrison of soldiersto the ParacelIslands, a small island chain claimed by

Vietnam.

The Philippines announced on October 1, 2012 that it would send 800 Marines to the

Spratly Islandsto further guard territorial claims there. The Spratly Islands are near

active oil and natural gas fields in the South China Sea.

In response to the unrest, Beijing offered 3 billion yuan (USD 474 million) to the ASEAN

for a maritime cooperation fund. China plans for this fund to cool tensions with the

Philippines and Vietnam, yet to date has not established the purpose of the fund.However, this illustrates Beijings desire to resolve the conflict diplomatically.

Analytical Confidence:

Analytic confidence for this assessment is high. The analyst did not utilize structured

methods of analysis for this report. Source reliability is high and the sources
http://www.npr.org/2012/09/26/161812054/tokyos-governor-stokes-the-island-feud-with-chinahttp:/www.npr.org/2012/09/26/161812054/tokyos-governor-stokes-the-island-feud-with-chinahttp://www.npr.org/2012/09/26/161812054/tokyos-governor-stokes-the-island-feud-with-chinahttp:/www.npr.org/2012/09/26/161812054/tokyos-governor-stokes-the-island-feud-with-chinahttp://www.npr.org/2012/09/26/161812054/tokyos-governor-stokes-the-island-feud-with-chinahttp:/www.npr.org/2012/09/26/161812054/tokyos-governor-stokes-the-island-feud-with-chinahttp://www.npr.org/2012/09/26/161812054/tokyos-governor-stokes-the-island-feud-with-chinahttp:/www.npr.org/2012/09/26/161812054/tokyos-governor-stokes-the-island-feud-with-chinahttp://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/24/world/asia/china-sends-troops-to-disputed-islands.html?_r=0http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/24/world/asia/china-sends-troops-to-disputed-islands.html?_r=0http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/24/world/asia/china-sends-troops-to-disputed-islands.html?_r=0http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/24/world/asia/china-sends-troops-to-disputed-islands.html?_r=0http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2012%5C10%5C01%5Cstory_1-10-2012_pg14_2http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2012%5C10%5C01%5Cstory_1-10-2012_pg14_2http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2012%5C10%5C01%5Cstory_1-10-2012_pg14_2http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2012%5C10%5C01%5Cstory_1-10-2012_pg14_2http://www.startribune.com/world/172812031.html?refer=yhttp://www.startribune.com/world/172812031.html?refer=yhttp://www.startribune.com/world/172812031.html?refer=yhttp://www.startribune.com/world/172812031.html?refer=yhttp://www.startribune.com/world/172812031.html?refer=yhttp://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2012%5C10%5C01%5Cstory_1-10-2012_pg14_2http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2012%5C10%5C01%5Cstory_1-10-2012_pg14_2http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2012%5C10%5C01%5Cstory_1-10-2012_pg14_2http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/24/world/asia/china-sends-troops-to-disputed-islands.html?_r=0http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/24/world/asia/china-sends-troops-to-disputed-islands.html?_r=0http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/24/world/asia/china-sends-troops-to-disputed-islands.html?_r=0http://www.npr.org/2012/09/26/161812054/tokyos-governor-stokes-the-island-feud-with-chinahttp:/www.npr.org/2012/09/26/161812054/tokyos-governor-stokes-the-island-feud-with-chinahttp://www.npr.org/2012/09/26/161812054/tokyos-governor-stokes-the-island-feud-with-chinahttp:/www.npr.org/2012/09/26/161812054/tokyos-governor-stokes-the-island-feud-with-chinahttp://www.npr.org/2012/09/26/161812054/tokyos-governor-stokes-the-island-feud-with-chinahttp:/www.npr.org/2012/09/26/161812054/tokyos-governor-stokes-the-island-feud-with-china


8/15


9/15

9

accounted forapproximately 32 percent of the companys total production during the

first half of2012.

Gold Fields, thefourth-largest gold producer in the world, is also trying to end strikes at

several mines. Itlost about 32,000 ounces of output, because of strikes at its KDC and

Beatrix sites. It is currently offering awage increaseto its lowest paid workers in anattempt to curb the strike.

The strikes are also testing President Jacob Zuma's leadership. The president is under

fire for failing to address and contain the workers' protests and wage increase demands.

Analytic Confidence:

Analytic confidence for this assessment ismedium. Source reliability ranges from

medium to high. Sources can be corroborated. The analyst is of medium expertise and

worked alone without the aid of structured analytic methods. The subject is moderately

complex. Time available for the task was adequate.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444592404578030263428622912.htmlhttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444592404578030263428622912.htmlhttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444592404578030263428622912.htmlhttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444592404578030263428622912.htmlhttp://www.forbes.com/sites/kitconews/2012/09/27/south-african-mine-strikes-to-have-limited-impact-on-gold-prices-analysts/2/http://www.forbes.com/sites/kitconews/2012/09/27/south-african-mine-strikes-to-have-limited-impact-on-gold-prices-analysts/2/http://www.forbes.com/sites/kitconews/2012/09/27/south-african-mine-strikes-to-have-limited-impact-on-gold-prices-analysts/2/http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-09-25/anglogold-operations-halted-in-south-africa-as-strikes-spreadhttp://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-09-25/anglogold-operations-halted-in-south-africa-as-strikes-spreadhttp://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-09-25/anglogold-operations-halted-in-south-africa-as-strikes-spreadhttp://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-10-10/s-dot-african-gold-mines-propose-wage-changes-after-union-talkshttp://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-10-10/s-dot-african-gold-mines-propose-wage-changes-after-union-talkshttp://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-10-10/s-dot-african-gold-mines-propose-wage-changes-after-union-talkshttp://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/oct/03/miners-strikes-south-africa-ironhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/oct/03/miners-strikes-south-africa-ironhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/oct/03/miners-strikes-south-africa-ironhttp://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-10-10/s-dot-african-gold-mines-propose-wage-changes-after-union-talkshttp://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-09-25/anglogold-operations-halted-in-south-africa-as-strikes-spreadhttp://www.forbes.com/sites/kitconews/2012/09/27/south-african-mine-strikes-to-have-limited-impact-on-gold-prices-analysts/2/http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444592404578030263428622912.htmlhttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444592404578030263428622912.html


10/15

10

U.S. Likely To Implement Enhanced Regulations to Stop

the Trafficking of Central African Conflict Minerals In Next

3 To 5 Years

Executive Summary:

It is likely the United States will implement more rules to diminish the use of conflict

minerals in the next three to five years. This is likely due to the inclusion of the M23

militants to an international mineral blacklist, the expanded mission of the Tanzanian

military, the already-implemented SEC rules, and U.S. Chamber of Commerce

recommendations for further prevention of the use conflict minerals.

Discussion:

Since conflict broke out in April, 200,000M23 militantshave moved to the eastern partof the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), roughly 57,000 of whom have crossed into

neighboring nations. The M23 militia captured border towns along the DRCand

Ugandan border, subsequently paralyzing mineral trade and forcing DRC troops to

retreat into Uganda. Workers are being held at gunpoint, and forced to work for little to

no pay. Experts estimate that 5.4 million people in the region have died from war-

related causes since 1998.

At the conclusion of the African summit

in Uganda, participants agreed to

dispatch a neutral force to drive the M23militants out of the DRC. Countries

excluded in the military force include the

DRC, Rwanda, Burundi, and Uganda.

Tanzania is the only state that has agreed

to send soldiers for the mission.

However, analysts predict the mission

will have limited success due to the

overwhelming number of militants.

The Security and Exchange Commission (SEC) has already taken steps to prevent

companies in the United States from using conflict minerals in their products. The

Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Actrequires companies to

disclose their use of conflict minerals sourced in the DCR or neighboring countries.

These minerals include tantalum, tin, gold, and tungsten. However, the Dodd-Frankact

does not target thesupply chain used to transport these minerals, and does little to

actually stop the violence in central Africa.
http://communities.washingtontimes.com/neighborhood/africa-relayed/2012/sep/22/congo-question-can-regional-powers-use-force-pacif/http://communities.washingtontimes.com/neighborhood/africa-relayed/2012/sep/22/congo-question-can-regional-powers-use-force-pacif/http://communities.washingtontimes.com/neighborhood/africa-relayed/2012/sep/22/congo-question-can-regional-powers-use-force-pacif/http://communities.washingtontimes.com/neighborhood/africa-relayed/2012/sep/22/congo-question-can-regional-powers-use-force-pacif/http://communities.washingtontimes.com/neighborhood/africa-relayed/2012/sep/22/congo-question-can-regional-powers-use-force-pacif/http://communities.washingtontimes.com/neighborhood/africa-relayed/2012/sep/22/congo-question-can-regional-powers-use-force-pacif/http://www.cnn.com/2012/08/16/tech/gaming-gadgets/congo-blood-phones-report/index.htmlhttp://www.cnn.com/2012/08/16/tech/gaming-gadgets/congo-blood-phones-report/index.htmlhttp://communities.washingtontimes.com/neighborhood/africa-relayed/2012/sep/22/congo-question-can-regional-powers-use-force-pacif/http://communities.washingtontimes.com/neighborhood/africa-relayed/2012/sep/22/congo-question-can-regional-powers-use-force-pacif/http://communities.washingtontimes.com/neighborhood/africa-relayed/2012/sep/22/congo-question-can-regional-powers-use-force-pacif/http://www.sec.gov/news/press/2012/2012-163.htmhttp://www.sec.gov/news/press/2012/2012-163.htmhttp://www.sec.gov/news/press/2012/2012-163.htmhttp://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/foreign-policy/244559-broken-sec-pushes-unworkable-rules-on-conflict-mineralshttp://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/foreign-policy/244559-broken-sec-pushes-unworkable-rules-on-conflict-mineralshttp://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/foreign-policy/244559-broken-sec-pushes-unworkable-rules-on-conflict-mineralshttp://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/foreign-policy/244559-broken-sec-pushes-unworkable-rules-on-conflict-mineralshttp://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/foreign-policy/244559-broken-sec-pushes-unworkable-rules-on-conflict-mineralshttp://blogs.wsj.com/corruption-currents/2012/09/14/conflict-minerals-rules-could-reverberate-through-supply-chain/http://blogs.wsj.com/corruption-currents/2012/09/14/conflict-minerals-rules-could-reverberate-through-supply-chain/http://blogs.wsj.com/corruption-currents/2012/09/14/conflict-minerals-rules-could-reverberate-through-supply-chain/http://blogs.wsj.com/corruption-currents/2012/09/14/conflict-minerals-rules-could-reverberate-through-supply-chain/http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/foreign-policy/244559-broken-sec-pushes-unworkable-rules-on-conflict-mineralshttp://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/foreign-policy/244559-broken-sec-pushes-unworkable-rules-on-conflict-mineralshttp://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/foreign-policy/244559-broken-sec-pushes-unworkable-rules-on-conflict-mineralshttp://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/foreign-policy/244559-broken-sec-pushes-unworkable-rules-on-conflict-mineralshttp://www.sec.gov/news/press/2012/2012-163.htmhttp://www.sec.gov/news/press/2012/2012-163.htmhttp://communities.washingtontimes.com/neighborhood/africa-relayed/2012/sep/22/congo-question-can-regional-powers-use-force-pacif/http://communities.washingtontimes.com/neighborhood/africa-relayed/2012/sep/22/congo-question-can-regional-powers-use-force-pacif/http://www.cnn.com/2012/08/16/tech/gaming-gadgets/congo-blood-phones-report/index.htmlhttp://www.cnn.com/2012/08/16/tech/gaming-gadgets/congo-blood-phones-report/index.htmlhttp://communities.washingtontimes.com/neighborhood/africa-relayed/2012/sep/22/congo-question-can-regional-powers-use-force-pacif/http://communities.washingtontimes.com/neighborhood/africa-relayed/2012/sep/22/congo-question-can-regional-powers-use-force-pacif/http://communities.washingtontimes.com/neighborhood/africa-relayed/2012/sep/22/congo-question-can-regional-powers-use-force-pacif/http://communities.washingtontimes.com/neighborhood/africa-relayed/2012/sep/22/congo-question-can-regional-powers-use-force-pacif/


11/15

11

The United States Chamber of Commercegave the SEC over 50 recommendations to

prevent the use of conflict minerals and threatened legal actionif companies do not take

further action. The Chamber of Commerce recommendations provide an outline for

more effective regulation. These recommendations includemanagerial accountability,

hiring market based expertise, and enhanced cost-benefit analysis.

Analytic Confidence:

The analytic confidence for this assessment ismedium. Source reliability is medium and

some sources were hard to corroborate. The analysts expertise is medium and the

analyst worked alone without the aid of structured analytic methods. The subject is

highly complex and the time available for the task was adequate.
http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/foreign-policy/244559-broken-sec-pushes-unworkable-rules-on-conflict-mineralshttp://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/foreign-policy/244559-broken-sec-pushes-unworkable-rules-on-conflict-mineralshttp://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/foreign-policy/244559-broken-sec-pushes-unworkable-rules-on-conflict-mineralshttp://www.enoughproject.org/news/sec-adopts-conflict-minerals-rules-chamber-threatens-lawsuithttp://www.enoughproject.org/news/sec-adopts-conflict-minerals-rules-chamber-threatens-lawsuithttp://www.freeenterprise.com/breaking-brokenhttp://www.freeenterprise.com/breaking-brokenhttp://www.freeenterprise.com/breaking-brokenhttp://www.freeenterprise.com/breaking-brokenhttp://www.freeenterprise.com/breaking-brokenhttp://www.freeenterprise.com/breaking-brokenhttp://www.freeenterprise.com/breaking-brokenhttp://www.enoughproject.org/news/sec-adopts-conflict-minerals-rules-chamber-threatens-lawsuithttp://www.enoughproject.org/news/sec-adopts-conflict-minerals-rules-chamber-threatens-lawsuithttp://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/foreign-policy/244559-broken-sec-pushes-unworkable-rules-on-conflict-mineralshttp://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/foreign-policy/244559-broken-sec-pushes-unworkable-rules-on-conflict-minerals


12/15

12

U.S. Highly Unlikely To Exploit Arctic To Reduce Strategic

Mineral Dependency, Despite Wealth Of Resources

Executive Summary:

It is highly unlikely that the U.S. will exploit the Arctic region to reduce its dependency

on other nations for strategic minerals over the next three to five years, despite

abundant reserves in the region. Key factors include gross unpreparedness, a failure to

lead in the international community, and loss of the initiative to China.

Discussion:

The U.S. has failed to prepare for resource

exploitation in the Arctic. Lacking Alaskan

ports capable of supporting heavy traffic, the

U.S. has not preparedfor an increase in

Arctic activity. With only one icebreaker

vessel, the U.S. Coast Guard is neither

equipped nor readyto respond to events in

the Arctic. In contrast, Russia has continued

a militarization campaign, moving military

assets to the region and also building bigger,

better icebreakers tosupplementits existing

fleet. Other Arctic border nations have

developednational security strategiesto include north of the Arctic Circle.

Despite involvement in theArctic Council, the U.S. still refuses to accede totheLaw of

the Sea Treaty, which would establish comprehensive, international rules to govern the

oceans. The far northern Arctic has no exact boundaries, and nations have begun

hagglingover borders. U.S. officialshave called the Arctic region a new frontier in our

foreign policy, yet by continuing to resist the Law of the Sea Treaty, the U.S. hasmissed

the chanceto establish a leadership role in the international community.

Despite lackingArctic Councilstatus, China has seized the initiative in the region by

aggressively pursuingresources and contracts. Its abilityto outspendall competitorsprovides it withextra leveragein cash-poor areas such as Greenland and Iceland.

Chinese companies, many with government ties, have beeninvesting heavilyin the

Arctic. Althoughexperts believethat Chinese companies are not acting for foreign policy

goals but economic ones, China already controlsnearly allof the worlds rare earths

production and this would further cement US dependence upon it.
http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/us-far-behind-race-the-arctichttp://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/us-far-behind-race-the-arctichttp://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/us-far-behind-race-the-arctichttp://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/us-far-behind-race-the-arctichttp://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/us-far-behind-race-the-arctichttp://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/us-far-behind-race-the-arctichttp://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/us-far-behind-race-the-arctichttp://www.eurasiareview.com/03102012-restructuring-arctic-stability-and-global-security-analysis/http://www.eurasiareview.com/03102012-restructuring-arctic-stability-and-global-security-analysis/http://www.eurasiareview.com/03102012-restructuring-arctic-stability-and-global-security-analysis/http://barentsobserver.com/en/arctic/new-icebreaker-russian-arctic-18-09http://barentsobserver.com/en/arctic/new-icebreaker-russian-arctic-18-09http://barentsobserver.com/en/arctic/new-icebreaker-russian-arctic-18-09http://www.eurasiareview.com/03102012-restructuring-arctic-stability-and-global-security-analysis/http://www.eurasiareview.com/03102012-restructuring-arctic-stability-and-global-security-analysis/http://www.eurasiareview.com/03102012-restructuring-arctic-stability-and-global-security-analysis/http://www.arctic-council.org/index.php/en/http://www.arctic-council.org/index.php/en/http://www.arctic-council.org/index.php/en/http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/us-far-behind-race-the-arctichttp://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/us-far-behind-race-the-arctichttp://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/us-far-behind-race-the-arctichttp://www.unlawoftheseatreaty.org/http://www.unlawoftheseatreaty.org/http://www.unlawoftheseatreaty.org/http://www.unlawoftheseatreaty.org/http://www.thespec.com/news/world/article/804071--race-is-on-for-arctic-treasureshttp://www.thespec.com/news/world/article/804071--race-is-on-for-arctic-treasureshttp://www.thespec.com/news/world/article/804071--race-is-on-for-arctic-treasureshttp://www.mining.com/china-to-exploit-global-warning-for-arctic-mineral-riches-66744/http://www.mining.com/china-to-exploit-global-warning-for-arctic-mineral-riches-66744/http://www.mining.com/china-to-exploit-global-warning-for-arctic-mineral-riches-66744/http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/us-far-behind-race-the-arctichttp://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/us-far-behind-race-the-arctichttp://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/us-far-behind-race-the-arctichttp://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/us-far-behind-race-the-arctichttp://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/us-far-behind-race-the-arctichttp://www.arctic-council.org/index.php/en/http://www.arctic-council.org/index.php/en/http://www.arctic-council.org/index.php/en/http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/49086436/ns/world_news-the_new_york_times/#.UHGLc03A825http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/49086436/ns/world_news-the_new_york_times/#.UHGLc03A825http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/49086436/ns/world_news-the_new_york_times/#.UHGLc03A825http://www.thespec.com/news/world/article/804071--race-is-on-for-arctic-treasureshttp://www.thespec.com/news/world/article/804071--race-is-on-for-arctic-treasureshttp://www.thespec.com/news/world/article/804071--race-is-on-for-arctic-treasureshttp://www.thespec.com/news/world/article/804071--race-is-on-for-arctic-treasureshttp://www.thespec.com/news/world/article/804071--race-is-on-for-arctic-treasureshttp://www.thespec.com/news/world/article/804071--race-is-on-for-arctic-treasureshttp://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/49086436/ns/world_news-the_new_york_times/#.UHGLc03A825http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/49086436/ns/world_news-the_new_york_times/#.UHGLc03A825http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/49086436/ns/world_news-the_new_york_times/#.UHGLc03A825http://www.thespec.com/news/world/article/804071--race-is-on-for-arctic-treasureshttp://www.thespec.com/news/world/article/804071--race-is-on-for-arctic-treasureshttp://www.thespec.com/news/world/article/804071--race-is-on-for-arctic-treasureshttp://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/energy/2012/04/pictures/120403-china-rare-earth-mining-pictures/http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/energy/2012/04/pictures/120403-china-rare-earth-mining-pictures/http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/energy/2012/04/pictures/120403-china-rare-earth-mining-pictures/http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/energy/2012/04/pictures/120403-china-rare-earth-mining-pictures/http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/energy/2012/04/pictures/120403-china-rare-earth-mining-pictures/http://www.thespec.com/news/world/article/804071--race-is-on-for-arctic-treasureshttp://www.thespec.com/news/world/article/804071--race-is-on-for-arctic-treasureshttp://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/49086436/ns/world_news-the_new_york_times/#.UHGLc03A825http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/49086436/ns/world_news-the_new_york_times/#.UHGLc03A825http://www.thespec.com/news/world/article/804071--race-is-on-for-arctic-treasureshttp://www.thespec.com/news/world/article/804071--race-is-on-for-arctic-treasureshttp://www.thespec.com/news/world/article/804071--race-is-on-for-arctic-treasureshttp://www.thespec.com/news/world/article/804071--race-is-on-for-arctic-treasureshttp://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/49086436/ns/world_news-the_new_york_times/#.UHGLc03A825http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/49086436/ns/world_news-the_new_york_times/#.UHGLc03A825http://www.arctic-council.org/index.php/en/http://www.arctic-council.org/index.php/en/http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/us-far-behind-race-the-arctichttp://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/us-far-behind-race-the-arctichttp://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/us-far-behind-race-the-arctichttp://www.mining.com/china-to-exploit-global-warning-for-arctic-mineral-riches-66744/http://www.mining.com/china-to-exploit-global-warning-for-arctic-mineral-riches-66744/http://www.thespec.com/news/world/article/804071--race-is-on-for-arctic-treasureshttp://www.thespec.com/news/world/article/804071--race-is-on-for-arctic-treasureshttp://www.unlawoftheseatreaty.org/http://www.unlawoftheseatreaty.org/http://www.unlawoftheseatreaty.org/http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/us-far-behind-race-the-arctichttp://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/us-far-behind-race-the-arctichttp://www.arctic-council.org/index.php/en/http://www.arctic-council.org/index.php/en/http://www.eurasiareview.com/03102012-restructuring-arctic-stability-and-global-security-analysis/http://www.eurasiareview.com/03102012-restructuring-arctic-stability-and-global-security-analysis/http://barentsobserver.com/en/arctic/new-icebreaker-russian-arctic-18-09http://barentsobserver.com/en/arctic/new-icebreaker-russian-arctic-18-09http://www.eurasiareview.com/03102012-restructuring-arctic-stability-and-global-security-analysis/http://www.eurasiareview.com/03102012-restructuring-arctic-stability-and-global-security-analysis/http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/us-far-behind-race-the-arctichttp://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/us-far-behind-race-the-arctichttp://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/us-far-behind-race-the-arctichttp://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/us-far-behind-race-the-arctichttp://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/us-far-behind-race-the-arctic


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14/15

14

Annex A: Sources

Cover Image

Supplemental Report 1 Image

Supplemental Report 2 ImageSupplemental Report 3 Image

Supplemental Report 4 Image
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/55/Rareearthoxides.jpg/220px-Rareearthoxides.jpghttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/55/Rareearthoxides.jpg/220px-Rareearthoxides.jpghttp://www.npr.org/news/graphics/2012/09/map-island-dispute-624.gifhttp://www.npr.org/news/graphics/2012/09/map-island-dispute-624.gifhttp://static3.businessinsider.com/image/504f973c69bedd9732000009/south-africa-mine-strikes.jpghttp://static3.businessinsider.com/image/504f973c69bedd9732000009/south-africa-mine-strikes.jpghttp://spectrum.ieee.org/semiconductors/materials/cracking-down-on-conflict-mineralshttp://spectrum.ieee.org/semiconductors/materials/cracking-down-on-conflict-mineralshttp://texasgeography.files.wordpress.com/2012/09/19arctic-map-popup.jpg?w=468http://texasgeography.files.wordpress.com/2012/09/19arctic-map-popup.jpg?w=468http://texasgeography.files.wordpress.com/2012/09/19arctic-map-popup.jpg?w=468http://spectrum.ieee.org/semiconductors/materials/cracking-down-on-conflict-mineralshttp://static3.businessinsider.com/image/504f973c69bedd9732000009/south-africa-mine-strikes.jpghttp://www.npr.org/news/graphics/2012/09/map-island-dispute-624.gifhttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/55/Rareearthoxides.jpg/220px-Rareearthoxides.jpg


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15

Annex B: Methods And Processes

The analysts worked independently to produce four topic-specific SFARs over a period

of eight days. They utilized Google News searches and the Strategic Minerals blog to find

sources, corroborate these sources, and to determine their level of reliability. Analystsworked without the use of structured analytic methods. Once the supplemental reports

were complete, the analysts collaborated using Google Docs and Google Hangouts to

produce an LFAR document over a 48-hour period.

The collaborative technology was highly conducive to answering the overall question,

but the analysts experienced acute technical difficulties with Google Hangouts which

made it difficult to continue working smoothly. The analysts had to make modifications

to the initial plan by meeting after class to work collaboratively on the LFAR document.

national security strategic mineral lfar

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