NATIONAL POLL: ISRAEL-HAMAS CONFLICT

July 21-22, 2014

N=1,010 Registered 2014 Voters

Margin of Error: +/- 3%

#140704

Conducted on behalf of:

POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT

3

Now, generally speaking, would you say that things in the country are going in the

right direction, or have they pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track?

VOTERS PESSIMISTIC ABOUT DIRECTION OF

COUNTRY.

34% 32%33% 35%32% 30% 32% 32% 33% 31% 32%

28%

66% 68%67% 65%68% 70% 68% 68% 67% 69% 68%

72%

Wrong Track

Right Direction

4

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as President?

VOTERS GIVE NEGATIVE RATINGS TO PRESIDENT

OBAMA.

42%39%41% 42%42% 40%

43%43% 43%42% 42%39%

56%58%56% 56%56% 58%55%56% 55%56% 57% 58%

Disapprove

Approve

Among IND(36%)

25%

68%

Among

Independent

Voters

App Dis

IMAGES OF REGIONAL ACTORS

6

51%

28% 27%22% 23%

13%9% 7% 8%

27%

36% 35%

50% 48% 50%

71% 73%

66%

Israel Turkey Jordan SaudiArabia

Egypt Lebanon Iraq Iran Syria

ISRAEL IS ONLY MIDDLE EAST COUNTRY VIEWED

FAVORABLY BY THE AMERICAN ELECTORATE.

Fav

Thinking about some people, organizations, and countries that are active

in politics and world affairs, please indicate if you have a Very Favorable,

Somewhat Favorable, Somewhat Unfavorable, or Very Unfavorable

opinion of each individual, group, or country listed below.

Unf Fav Unf Fav Unf Fav Unf Fav Unf Fav Unf Fav Unf Fav Unf Fav Unf

7

51%

8% 6%

27%

59% 59%

49%

9% 9%

31%

54% 54%

Palestinian Authority

(May 4, 2014)

HamasIsrael

Images: Israel, PA, & Hamas – July 22

Images: Israel, PA, & Hamas – July 13

ISRAEL’S IMAGE ON THE RISE, PALESTINIAN

AUTHORITY AND HAMAS UNFAVORABLE ARE UP.

Favorable Unfavorable Unfavorable Unfavorable

Favorable

Unfavorable

Unfavorable Unfavorable Unfavorable

Total

8

ISRAEL’S IMAGE REMAINS POSITIVE ACROSS THE

PARTISAN SPECTRUM.

Thinking about some people, organizations, and countries that are active

in politics and world affairs, please indicate if you have a Very Favorable,

Somewhat Favorable, Somewhat Unfavorable, or Very Unfavorable

opinion of each individual, group, or country listed below.

10%7% 9% 7% 7% 5%

55% 54%

68%

49%

60%

68%

DEM(35%)

IND(36%)

GOP(29%)

DEM(35%)

IND(36%)

GOP(29%)

Palestinian Authority Hamas

Fav Unfav Fav Unfav Fav Unfav Fav Unfav Fav Unfav Fav Unfav

9

7%10%

7%2%

73%

82%78%

53%

Iran: Image

FAMILIARITY WITH THE CURRENT CONFLICT DIRECTLY

RELATED TO NEGATIVE OPINIONS REGARDING IRAN.

Favorable Favorable FavorableUnfavorable Unfavorable Unfavorable Unfavorable

A Lot Some Not Much/NothingTotal

By Amount Seen/Read/Heard on Israel-Hamas Conflict

10

43%

9% 4%

32%

52% 55%

33%

4% 2%

24%38%

28%

NETANYAHU SEEN FAVORABLY, NOT SO FOR HANIYEH

OR ABBAS.

Favorable Unfavorable Unfavorable Unfavorable

Favorable

Unfavorable

Unfavorable Unfavorable Unfavorable

Benjamin

NetanyahuMahmoud

Abbas

Ismail

Haniyeh

Israeli Prime Minister

Benjamin Netanyahu

Palestinian Authority

President Mahmoud

Abbas

Hamas Prime Minister

Ismail Haniyeh

11

43% 43%

7%

53%42%

75%

36% 39%

5%

52%43%

76%

OTHER INTERNATIONAL ACTORS IN THE DEVELOPING

MIDDLE EAST/FOREIGN POLICY NARRATIVES.

Favorable Unfavorable Unfavorable Unfavorable

Favorable

Unfavorable

Unfavorable Unfavorable Unfavorable

Barack Obama John Kerry Vladimir Putin

U.S. President Barack

Obama

U.S. Secretary of State

John KerryRussian President

Vladimir Putin

Favorable

Favorable

SUPPORT FOR ISRAEL

13

SUPPORT FOR ISRAEL HITS HIGHEST LEVEL OF THE

YEAR DURING CONFLICT.

Now, thinking about the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Palestinians in the

Middle East, please tell me whether, in general, you think America should be...

A strong supporter of Israel, A supporter of Israel,

A supporter of the Palestinians, or A strong supporter of the Palestinians?

51%46%

52% 54%

9% 8% 9% 9%

May 4,2014

June 1,2014

July 13,2014

July 22,2014

Israel Pal. Israel Pal. Israel Pal. Israel Pal.

14

44%

53%

66%

38% 39%

60%

72%

53% 53% 52%58%

13%

5%8%

21%

12%

2%7% 8%

5%9%

13%

DEM(35%)

IND(36%)

GOP(29%)

Age 18-29(16%)

Age 30-44(25%)

Age 45-64(38%)

Age 65+(21%)

Northeast(18%)

Midwest(24%)

South(37%)

West(21%)

PLURALITIES ACROSS DEMOGRAPHICS SAY THE U.S.

SHOULD SUPPORT ISRAEL.

Isr.Pal.

By Party By Age

Now, thinking about the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Palestinians in the

Middle East, please tell me whether, in general, you think America should be...

A strong supporter of Israel, A supporter of Israel,

A supporter of the Palestinians, or A strong supporter of the Palestinians?

By Region

Isr. Isr.Pal. Isr. Isr.Pal. Isr.Pal. Isr. Isr.

16%

Str.

29%

Str.

45%

Str.9%

Str.

19%

Str.

37%

Str.

44%

Str.29%

Str.

Pal.

28%

Str.

28%

Str.33%

Str.

Isr. Pal.Isr. Pal.Pal. Isr.

THE CONFLICT

16

8%

29%36%

28%

42%38%39%

21%17%

25%

9% 8%

May 42014

July 132014

July 222014

July 13, 2014

A Lot

Thinking about recent events in

the Middle East, how much have

you seen, read, or heard about a

Palestinian unity government

between the Palestinian

Authority and Hamas?

INTENSITY OF ATTENTION TO THE CONFLICT HAS

INCREASED, BUT OVERALL ATTENTION HAS NOT

SHIFTED. SEEMS THAT ONE-QUARTER OF VOTERS

ARE NOT GOING TO TUNE IN REGARDLESS.

Thinking about recent events in the Middle East, how much have

you seen, read, or heard about the ongoing conflict between

Israel and Hamas which recently erupted in open hostilities?

SomeNot

Much Nothing A Lot A LotSome SomeNot

Much

Not

MuchNothing Nothing

17

62%

53%58%

77%

39%

59%65%

78%

61%

53%57%

76%

43%

51%

70%73%

Total DEM(35%)

IND(33%)

GOP(32%)

Age18-29(14%)

Age30-44(26%)

Age45-64(38%)

Age65+

(22%)

Total DEM(35%)

IND(36%)

GOP(29%)

Age18-29(16%)

Age30-44(25%)

Age45-64(38%)

Age65+

(21%)

ROBUST MAJORITY CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ISRAELI

“RIGHT AND OBLIGATION” TO PROTECT ITS CITIZENS

AS CONFLICT DEVELOPS/INTENSIFIES.

Israel has the right and the obligation to protect its citizens from Hamas rocket fire

directed at Israeli civilians through the use of military force.

July 13, 2014

% Agree

July 22, 2014

% Agree

18

VERY FEW VOTERS BELIEVE ISRAEL IS

OVERREACTING, AND THIS HAS NOT CHANGED FROM

A SURVEY TAKEN BEFORE THE GROUND INCURSION.

Israel is overreacting by using military force against Hamas, while Hamas terrorism

cannot be condoned, Israel needs to find a non-violent solution.

16%

24%

14%11%

28%

15%18%

8%

17%

26%

16%

9%

33%

21%

11% 12%

Total DEM(35%)

IND(33%)

GOP(32%)

Age18-29(14%)

Age30-44(26%)

Age45-64(38%)

Age65+

(22%)

Total DEM(35%)

IND(36%)

GOP(29%)

Age18-29(16%)

Age30-44(25%)

Age45-64(38%)

Age65+

(21%)

July 13, 2014

% Agree

July 22, 2014

% Agree

19

23%

37%

22%18%

Total

69%

11%

Total

A Lot Some Not Much Nothing A Lot

How much have you seen, read, or

heard about tunnels that have

been dug by Hamas running from

Gaza into Israel and used for

terrorist attacks?

Israel has the right and the obligation to protect its

citizens from the tunnels that Hamas has dug running

from Gaza into Israel and used for terrorist attacks

against civilians.

Israel is overreacting by using military force against

Hamas, while Hamas’ terrorism cannot be condoned,

Israel needs to find a non-violent solution.

VOTERS HEARD LESS ABOUT TUNNELS THAN ABOUT

THE CONFLICT IN GENERAL, BUT ARE EVEN MORE

SUPPORTIVE OF ISRAELI ACTION IN THIS CONTEXT.

20

39%

8%

6%

3%

3%

2%

2%

2%

8%

2%

2%

23%

Hamas

The Palestinian Authority

Israel

Iran

President Barack Obama

Russia

Democrats in the U.S. Congress

Republicans in the U.S. Congress

All of the above

None of the above

Other

Don't Know/No Opinion

Who do you think is the MOST responsible for the hostilities between Israel and Hamas

HAMAS RECEIVES THE MOST BLAME FOR THE

CONFLICT. ONLY 6% BLAME ISRAEL.

21

31%

40%

20%

8%

Total

A Lot

Still thinking about recent events in the Middle East, how much have you seen, read,

or heard about civilian casualties among Palestinians in Gaza?

ATTENTION TO PALESTINIAN CASUALTIES IS NEARLY

AS HIGH AS ATTENTION TO THE CONFLICT AS A

WHOLE.

Some Not Much Nothing

22

Please indicate which point of view you agree with more, even if neither is exactly right…

Hamas does not recognize Israel’s right to exist

and has launched ground assaults, bombings,

and missiles at Israeli civilians for years. It is

unfortunate that Hamas has chosen to hide

behind Palestinian civilians, but Israel has to

stop Hamas from continuing these attacks for

the safety of Israeli civilians.

Over 500 Palestinians have been killed in this

war between Israel and Hamas but only a

handful of Israelis. According to the United

Nations over three-quarters of the Palestinian

casualties have been civilians and children. No

matter what Hamas has done, these actions by

Israel must be stopped.

EVEN IN THE CONTEXT OF THESE UNFORTUNATE

CASUALTIES, VOTERS SUPPORT ISRAEL’S MISSION.

52%

19%

Total

POSITION STATEMENTS

24

Abbreviation Full Message

Hamas is a Terrorist Organization

Hamas is a terrorist organization which denies Israel's right to exist, is actively seeking to kill Jewish civilians, and has no regard for the lives of the Palestinian people they claim to champion. Israel must stop Hamas' terrorism, even if Hamas continues to hide behind Palestinian civilians.

There Will Only be Peace if Hamas Accepts

Cease-fire

Israel has accepted multiple cease-fire proposals, but Hamas uses each as an opportunity to launch more attacks against Israel. Until Hamas accepts an international cease-fire plan and stops attacking civilian targets, Israel cannot be expected to cease operations against Hamas.

Hamas Uses Civilians Deaths for PR

Hamas is using the lives of normal Palestinians to wage a public relations campaign against Israel. By using human shields, Hamas is forcing Israel to kill civilians in the hope that the international community will condemn the Israeli actions.

Israel Defends Civilians While Hamas Hides

Behind Them

The difference between Israel and Hamas is that Israel is using missile defense to protect civilians, and Hamas is using civilians to protect their missiles.

Israeli Effort to AvoidCivilian Casualties

The Israeli Defense Force is doing everything that it reasonably can do to reduce civilian casualties during this conflict.

Iran is Instigator of Violence

This war between Israel and Hamas is Iran's fault. Iran has spent many years supplying Hamas with money and with rockets to use against Israeli civilians. Iran must be held accountable for the violence.

25

Hamas is a Terrorist Organization

STRONG AGREEMENT WITH ISRAELI FRAMEWORK-

STATEMENTS REGARDING THE CONFLICT. INCLUDING

58% AGREEMENT WITH NETANYAHU’S COMMENT.Next, I would like to show you some statements that have been made by politicians, journalists,

and diplomats that have been observing the recent conflict between Israel and Hamas. Please

read each statement carefully and indicate if you agree or disagree with each statement below.

Hamas Uses Civilians Deaths for PR

There Will Only Be Peace if Hamas

Accepts Cease-fire

Israeli Effort to Avoid Civilian Casualties

Israel Defends Civilians While Hamas

Hides Behind Them

Iran is Instigator of Violence

38%

39%

33%

31%

24%

15%

65%

64%

63%

58%

52%

46%

4%

6%

6%

11%

11%

11%

12%

22%

19%

Strongly Agree Somewhat Agree

Strongly Disagree Somewhat Disagree

26

Abbreviation Full Message

Israel is a BullyIsrael is a bully. This war is nothing more than an excuse by Israel to use its vastly superior military to kill Palestinians.

Israel is a HypocriteIsraelis have no conscience, no honor, and no pride. Those who condemn Hitler day and night have surpassed Hitler in barbarism.

Strongly Agree Somewhat Agree

Strongly Disagree Somewhat Disagree

Israel is a Hypocrite

7%

5%

17%

13%

41%

47%

57%

60%

Israel is a Bully