national climate and water briefing - bureau of meteorology · 2015. 12. 2. · bureau of...

Bureau of Meteorology www.bom.gov.au National Climate and Water Briefing 1 December 2015

National Climate and Water Briefing


Welcome

Dr Rob Vertessy

Director and CEO, Bureau of Meteorology


Climate conditions

and outlook

Agata Imielska

Senior Climatologist


Recent conditions • Recent conditions

• Climate influences

• Temperature and rainfall outlooks


Rainfall

Rainfall deciles

October 2012 – October 2015

http://cmap.bom.gov.au/tmp/analyser.A.result.hdef.maponly.png?18884


Rainfall deficiencies


July 2015 – October 2015


October 2012 – October 2015


Rainfall

Rainfall deciles

October 2015

Rainfall deciles

August–October 2015

Rainfall deciles

November 2015 (to 24 November)

http://cmap.bom.gov.au/tmp/analyser.8.result.hdef.maponly.png?14202


Temperatures

October 2015

Maximum temperature deciles Minimum temperature deciles

Record October temperatures

Maximum temperatures

• 3.44 ºC above average

Minimum temperatures


Mean temperatures



0.5

0.55

0.6

0.65

0.7

0.75

0.8

0.85

0.9

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Global temperatures

2015

2015

2014

2010

2013 2005 2009 1998

Warmest years

on record

Record global heat in October 2015

Diffe

rence

fro

m 2

0th

centu

ry a

vera

ge (°C

)


November heat

Highest heatwave index

17–20 November 2015

Maximum temperatures

17–20 November 2015

Extreme

heatwave

Severe heatwave

Low-intensity

heatwave

No heatwave




http://cmap.bom.gov.au/tmp/analyser.D.result.hdef.maponly.png?13960


http://cmap.bom.gov.au/tmp/analyser.3.result.hdef.legend.png?18565


Updated bushfire

outlook


El Niño

NINO3.4 recent values

• Latest monthly: +2.2 ºC (October)

• Latest weekly: +2.48 ºC (22 November)

NINO3.4

Sea surface temperature anomalies, week ending 22 November 2015


One-month cloud patterns 19 October – 18 November 2015

30-day moving Southern Oscillation Index January 2013 – 23 November 2015

El Niño Atmosphere

Less cloud

than normal More cloud

than normal


El Niño


El Niño evolution

All El Niño events since 1980

-3.2

-2.4

-1.6

-0.8

0

0.8

1.6

2.4

3.2

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Year 1 Year 2

NIN

O3.4

1982-83

1987-88

1991-92

1993-94

1994-95

1997-98

2002-03

2006-07

2009-10

2015-16

median

Data: ERSSTv4


NINO3.4 forecasts from eight international climate models

El Niño Model outlooks

December April February


Indian Ocean

Sea surface temperature anomalies, week ending 22 November 2015

Latest Dipole Mode Index : 0.13 ºC


Temperature outlook

Summer 2015–16

Chance of exceeding median maximum temperature

December 2015 – February 2016

Chance of exceeding median minimum temperature



Rainfall outlook

Summer 2015–16

Chance of exceeding median rainfall

December 2015


January 2016




Indonesia

From fires to floods


In summary

• Dry October, but some good falls in November

• Record October heat: globally and in Australia

• Summer 2015–16: mixed rainfall outlook, warm overnight temperatures


Thank you

Questions?

Agata Imielska

Senior Climatologist


Hydrologic conditions

and outlook

Janice Green

Manager, Water Accounting and Regulations Section



and outlook

• Recent hydrologic conditions

• Water storages

• Streamflow outlook


Rainfall deciles Effective rainfall

Recent conditions

October 2015


Lower layer soil

moisture

(10–100 cm)

September 2015 October 2015


• Developed by CSIRO and Bureau

• Runs for the continent on a 0.05°

(~5 km) grid

• Calibrated against streamflow,

evapotranspiration and soil moisture

• Runs from 1911 to yesterday, daily

resolution

Australian

Landscape Water

Balance

AWRA-L


Australian

Landscape Water

Balance

AWRA-L


100 year simulation of

landscape water

balance


Australian

Landscape Water

Balance

Portal

http://www.bom.gov.au/water/landscape

• No other website currently showing daily

continental water balance

• Past ten years' data available

• Registered users:

• >100 years

• tailored products

http://www.bom.gov.au/water/landscape


Observed streamflow

Observed streamflow

October 2015

• Low flow at 193 locations

• Near-median flow at 11 locations

• High flow at 23 locations


Observed streamflow

trend

Pro

po

rtio

n o

f site

s (

%)

acro

ss A

ustr

alia



and outlook


• Water storages



Water storage levels

Change from last year

As at 19 November 2015



and outlook


• Water storages



• Low flow at 193 locations

• Near-median flow at 11 locations

• High flow at 23 locations

• Moderate to high model skill for over

half of sites—highest in southeast

Forecast skill Most likely forecast outcome

Seasonal streamflow

forecast

November 2015 –

January 2016


Summary • Low observed streamflows for October 2015

• Below-average soil moisture persists across most of Australia

• Low streamflows forecast for November 2015 – January 2016 at 85% of sites across Australia


Thank you

Questions?

Janice Green

Manager, Water Accounting and Regulations Section


Next briefing

17 December 2015 Tarwin River, Victoria [photo by Matthew Bastin]

national climate and water briefing - bureau of meteorology · 2015. 12. 2. · bureau of...

Documents