National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Development/Status Update

“Where America’s Climate, Weather, Ocean and Space Weather Services Begin”

Dr. Louis W. UccelliniNational Centers for Environmental Prediction

Director

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July 11, 2011

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Goals for Today’s Meeting

• Provide overview of NCEP• Review current ongoing NOS/NCEP

interactions since last NOS visit (July 2010)• Start the process – future strategic goals and

related steps in attaining those goals

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Outline

• NCEP’s Role in NOAA’s Seamless Suite of Products and Forecast Services

• NOAA’s Model Production Suite• Computer Capability• Update Status from Last Meeting (July,

2010)• Enabling “Operational” Ecosystem

Prediction Capabilities• Summary

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Research, Development and Technology Infusion

Respond & Feedback

Respond & Feedback

NCEP’s Role in NOAA’s Seamless Suite of Products and Forecast Services

IBM Supercomputer Gaithersburg, MD DistributeDistribute

ObserveObserve

Products & Forecast Services

To Serve Diverse Customer Base

e.g., Energy Officials, DHS/FEMA, Emergency

Managers, Water Resource Planning, Transportation,

Health organizations (CDC…)

NCEP

Feedback

- Process- Assimilate- Predict

- Process- Assimilate- Predict

Prediction is now inherently linked to numerical models

CentralGuidanceCentral

GuidanceLocal

OfficesLocal

Offices

Mission: NCEP delivers science-based environmental predictions to the nation and the global community. We collaborate with partners and customers to produce reliable, timely, and accurate analyses, guidance, forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy.

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Organization: Central component of NOAA National Weather Service

NCEP Supports the NOAA Seamless Suite of Climate Weather and Ocean Products

Vision: The Nation’s trusted source, first alert and preferred partner for environmental prediction services

Space Weather Prediction Center

NCEP Central OperationsClimate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydromet Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center

National Hurricane Center Storm Prediction Center

Aviation Weather Center

• EMC WRF Developmental Test Center, NASA/ NOAA/DoD Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation

• CPC Climate Test Bed

• NHC Joint Hurricane Test Bed

• HPC Hydrometeorological Test Bed

• SPC Hazardous Weather Test Bed with NSSL

• SWPC Space Weather Prediction Test Bed with

AFWA

• AWC Aviation Weather Test Bed

• OPC linked with EMC’s Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch; working with IOOS/SURA on

possible test bed

Test BedsService – Science Linkage with the Outside Community

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What Does NCEP Do?

- Model Development, Implementation and Applications for Global and Regional Weather, Climate, Oceans and now Space Weather

- International Partnerships in Ensemble Forecasts

- Data Assimilation including the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation

- Super Computer, Workstation and Network Operations

“From the Sun to the Sea”

• Solar Monitoring, Warnings and Forecasts

• Climate Seasonal Forecasts• El Nino – La Nina Forecast• Weather Forecasts to Day 7• Extreme Events (Hurricanes,

Severe Weather, Snowstorms, Fire Weather)

• Aviation Forecasts and Warnings• High Seas Forecasts and Warnings

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Climate/WeatherLinkage

Forecast Uncertainty

Forecast Uncertainty

Minutes

Hours

Days

1 Week

2 Week

Months

Seasons

Years

NOAA’s Model Production SuiteNWS Seamless Suite of Forecasts

North American Ensemble Forecast System

Climate Forecast System

For

ecas

t L

ead

Tim

eF

orec

ast

Lea

d T

ime

Warnings & Alert Coordination

Watches

Forecasts

Threats Assessments

Guidance

Outlook

Benefits

Short-Range Ensemble Forecast

Ocean Model Great Lakes/ Coastal/Bay ModelsHurricane Models

Global Forecast System

North American ForecastRapid Update Cycle for Aviation

Dispersion Models for DHS- GFDL - WRF

NCEP Model Perspective

Mar

itim

eM

arit

ime

Lif

e &

Pro

pert

yL

ife

& P

rope

rty

Spa

ce O

pera

tion

sS

pace

Ope

rati

ons

Rec

reat

ion

Rec

reat

ion

Eco

syst

emE

cosy

stem

Env

iron

men

tE

nvir

onm

ent

Em

erge

ncy

Mgm

t E

mer

genc

y M

gmt

Agr

icul

ture

Agr

icul

ture

Res

ervo

ir C

ontr

olR

eser

voir

Con

trol

Ene

rgy

Pla

nnin

gE

nerg

y P

lann

ing

Com

mer

ceC

omm

erce

Hyd

ropo

wer

Hyd

ropo

wer

Fir

e W

eath

erF

ire

Wea

ther

Hea

lth

Hea

lth

Avi

atio

nA

viat

ion

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Air Quality

WRF NMM/ARWWorkstation WRF

WRF: ARW, NMMETA, RSM GFS, Canadian Global Model

Regional NAM

WRF NMM

North American Ensemble Forecast System

Hurricane GFDLHWRF

GlobalForecastSystem

Dispersion

ARL/HYSPLIT

Forecast

Severe Weather

Rapid Updatefor Aviation

Climate

Short-RangeEnsemble Forecast

NOAA’s NWS Model Production Suite

CFS MOM4NOAHSea Ice

NOAH Land Surface Model

Coupled

Global DataAssimilation

Oceans

HYCOM

WaveWatch III

NAM/CMAQ

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Reg

iona

lD

A

Satellites + Radar99.9%

3.5B Obs/Day

NOSPORTSGLOFS

ChesapeakeTampa

Delaware

ADCIRC

SpaceWeather

(Future)

ENLIL

Cou

ple

d(F

utu

re)

Regi

onal

DA

Update Status from Last MeetingJuly 2010

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Activities Timeline for NOS Interaction

• Computer “backbone” agreement - 2005• NOS/NCEP MOU – September 2008• Modeling CONOPS completed – May 2010• NOS/NCEP Leadership meeting – July 2010• Great Lakes Operational Forecast System Implementation –

December 7, 2010• SURA meeting at NCEP –

March 2, 2011• Implementation of Chesapeake Bay,

Tampa Bay and Delaware Bay Operational Forecast System – March 29, 2011

• IOOS/OPC working toward support for Ocean/Coastal test bed (ongoing)

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Current Status

• NCO now supports NOS models in operational mode– Great Lakes, Chesapeake Bay, Delaware Bay, Tampa Bay

• Other models now being assessed by NOS for implementation (e.g., Gulf of Mexico, Columbia River,…)

• Global HYCOM running in parallel; to be implemented by September 30, 2011

• 4 km NMMB to be implemented August 9– 4km winds for bay models

• Actively enabling (providing O2R support for) ecosystem forecasts (report out on July 5-6 workshop)

• NWS/NCEP working with IOOS to support SURA/Test bed

Popularity of NCEP Models Web Page

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

JULJANJULJANJULJANJULJANJULJANJULJANJULJANJULJANJULJANJUL

Num

ber

of H

its

(Mil

lion

s)

Computing CapabilityApplied to NWS and Now NOS Model Services

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

JULJANJULJANJULJANJULJANJULJANJULJANJULJANJULJANJULJANJULJAN

Num

ber o

f Hits

(Mill

ions

)2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Popularity of NCEP Models Web Page

2010

• Transition to IBM Power 6 complete– Declared operational August 12,

2009– 73.1 trillion calculations/sec– Factor of 4 increase over the IBM

Power5 – 156 POWER6 32-way nodes– 4,992 processors– 20 terabytes of memory – 330 terabytes of disk space– 3.5 billion observations/day– 27.8 Million model fields/day

• Primary: Gaithersburg, MD• Backup: Fairmont, WV

– Guaranteed switchover in 15 minutes– Web access to models as they run on

the CCS– Approaching capacity limits for

existing operational computing (new system, scheduled Sept 2013)

“Enabling” Operational Ecosystem Prediction Capabilities

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• A major goal in NWS Strategic Plan• Look to partner with NOS, OAR, NESDIS and other NOAA

components with NOS providing lead• Many opportunities to accelerate various regional-local based

Ecological Forecasting Systems

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Summary• NCEP is

– Strategically aligned with NOAA’s “seamless suite” of products from the “Sun to the Sea”

– Working with NOAA on opportunities to “enable” and expand predictive capabilities (e.g., oceans air and water quality, ecology, space weather…) with success based on interdisciplinary Earth System approach

• NCEP-NOS ocean-coastal operational working relationship• NCEP-NOS CO-OPS CONOPS agreement• Increasing interactions with SURA through IOOS

– A critical transition agent in the NOAA “research to operations” process involving observations, data assimilation, modeling, and service delivery – working with IOOS on establishing test bed within OPC

– Enabling predictive capabilities for ecosystem and human health applications

Today’s Meeting Agenda10:30 a.m. Opening Statements – Objectives for Today

Laura Furgione, NWS DAA, D

Dr. Holly Bamford, NOS DAA

 

10:50 a.m. Developments/Status Update Since Last Visit to NCEP

Dr. Louis W. Uccellini, NCEP Director

 

11:10 a.m. Collaborative Modeling Efforts: Progress and Lessons

 

Dr. Hendrik Tolman, Chief, Ocean Modeling Branch

Mary Erickson, Chief, Coast Survey Development Lab (CSDL)

11:35 a.m. Coastal Ecological Forecasting; Vision and Prospects for Operational Services

 

Dr. Russell Callender, Acting Director, NCCOS/NOS

 

Ecological Forecasting: Report on July 5-6 Workshop

 

Dr. David Green, OCWWS/NWS

12:00 p.m. Vision and Prospect for an Ocean/Coastal Modling Test bed

 

Zdenka Willis, Director, IOOS Program

Dr. Ming Ji, Director, Ocean Prediction Center

 

12:30 p.m. Discussion/Working Lunch

- Review current projects underway

- Identify gaps or projected delays

- Future planned project

- Areas for future growth

- Building logical partnerships (NMFS, USACE, DOE…)

 

1:15 p.m. Executive Session

Execs Adjourn to NCEP Director’s Office

 

1:15 p.m. Technical Breakout Discussions

2:30 p.m. Regroup/Report Out/Wrap Up

 

3:00 p.m. Adjourn

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Appendix

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1818

Forecast Metrics

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CDAS/Reanl vs GFSNH/SH 500Hpa day 5

Anomaly Correlation (20-80 N/S)

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45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

1979 1989 1999 2009

YEAR

An

om

aly

Co

rre

lati

on

NH GFS

SH GFS

NH CDAS/R1

SH CDAS/R1RecordValues

20

21

22

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

Err

or

(nau

tica

l miles

)

Year

1970-1986 trendline 1987-1996 trendline

1997-2001 trendline

Err

or

(nau

tica

l mil

es)

Year

NHC Atlantic 72 hr Track Forecast Errors

Advances RelatedTo USWRP

Major Upgrades in Global andHurricane Numerical models

2003-2009trend line

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• Increasing emphasis on multi-model ensemble approaches that build on the NCEP model suite – SREF– NAEFS– Climate Forecast System

• Entering the NPOESS era– More rapid access to

hyperspectral data– GPS soundings– Higher resolution surface

radiance data• All models run within ESMF

– Models run concurrently – Fully coupled– Spanning all scales

• Operational Earth System model; enable more explicit hydro, ocean, coastal, climate and ecosystems applications

Forces for Change

Model Region 1

Model Region 2

Global/Regional Model Domain

ESMF-based System

Integrated User Requirements

Ecosystem Services such as flood and storm protection, clean water supply, safe food, healthy habitats, and beach quality, contribute $Trillions in economic activity, social, human health and commercial benefit

• Accurate weather, water & climate information is a critical driver for decisions

• QPF runoff... to maintain soil, water quality and food supply

• Coastal winds and climatology... to predict toxic algal blooms, fish stock, and public safety

• Air/Water temperature ... to forecast scenarios for pathogen progression and avoid illness

• Prediction capability can now be applied to ecosystem components to better provide integrated environmental services for decision support

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Prototype Projects

• Currently, NCEP and other NWS offices are linked to NOAA pilot programs– Chesapeake Bay

• Beach/Water Quality• Living Resource Distribution• Dissolved Oxygen Predictions• Harmful Algal Bloom• Disease Pathogen Progression

– Gulf Coast– Gulf of Maine– Great Lakes– California Current

Oysters, Fish, Sea nettles ...

Vibrio...

Satellite Images of Saharan Dust Moving Across Atlantic

Algal Blooms and Dead ZonesBarnacles, Muscles