natcatservice and flood issues focus on europe petra lÖw may 2011
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NATCATSERVICE AND FLOOD ISSUES FOCUS ON EUROPE
PETRA LÖW
May 2011
MUNICH RE AND THE NATCATSERVICE
Munich Re and the NatCatSERVICE Structure of flood events in the database
Focus on Europe
An insurance perspective on flood events
© 2011 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at May 2011
NatCatSERVICE
Munich Re Insurance Company
• Founded 1880• Largest Reinsurer worldwide
NatCatSERVICE
• Offices in 60 countries worldwide• Leading insurer of natural hazards
• Gross premium 2010: EUR 24bn • NatCat losses 2010: EUR 1.5 bn
n Atlantan Chicagon Columbusn Hart fordn Kansas Cityn Montrealn New Yorkn Philadelphian Princetonn San Franciscon Toronton Vancouver
n Bogotán Buenos Airesn Caracasn Mexicon Santiago de Chilen São Paulo
n Aucklandn Melbournen Perthn Sydney
n Hongkongn Kolkatan Kuala Lumpurn Mumbain Beijingn Schanghain Seouln Singaporen Taipehn Tokyo
nMunichnAthensnGenevan Londonn Lisbonn MadridnMilannMoscown ParisnWarsaw
n Accran Johannesburgn Cape Townn Nairobin Port Louis
Munich Re Insurance Company
© 2011 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at May 2011
NatCatSERVICE
• Founded 1974• Based on a unique paper archive at country basis
• One of the most comprehensive database on natural catastrophes• Focus on overall and insured losses
Global loss database about natural catastrophesNatCatSERVICE
© 2011 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at May 2011
NatCatSERVICE
Global loss database about natural disastersNatCatSERVICE
© 2011 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at May 2011
NatCatSERVICE
Global loss database about natural disastersData
Year Number of data sets
0079 - 999 40
1000 - 1499 200
1500 - 1899 1 100
1900 - 1949 1 200
1950 - 1979 2 800
1980 - 2010 22 000
>28,000 data sets
© 2011 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at May 2011
STRUCTURE OF FLOOD EVENTS IN THE DATABASE
Munich Re and the NatCatSERVICE Structure of flood events in the database
Focus on Europe
An insurance perspective on flood events
NatCatSERVICE
Global loss database about natural disastersPeril hierarchy and terminology
Storm- Tropical storm- Extratropical storm- Convective storm- Local storm
Geophysical events Meteorological events Hydrological events Climatological events
Earthquake
Mass movement (dry)- Rockfall- Landslide- Subsidence
Volcanic eruption
Flood- General flood- Flash flood- Storm surge
Mass movement (wet)- Rockfall- Avalange- Landslide- Subsidence
Extreme temperature- Heat wave- Cold wave- Extreme winter conditions
Drought
Forest fire
© 2011 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at May 2011
RegionDetailsDamages
Hurricane Ike
RegionDetailsDamages
RegionDetailsDamages
RegionDetailsDamages
RegionDetailsDamages
RegionDetailsDamages
USA Cuba Turks & Caicos
Dom. Rep Haiti Bahamas
NatCatSERVICE
Content, Structure and Methodology Multi-Region-Event
© 2011 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at May 2011
*in 2010 values
*in 2010 values
NatCatSERVICE
Natural catastrophes worldwide 1980 – 2010Percentage distribution
19,400 Loss events 2,275,000 Fatalities
Overall losses* US$ 3,000bn Insured losses* US$ 740bn
14%
38%35%
13%
38%
19%11%
32%
22%
41%
24%
13% 10%
76%
8%6%
Meteorological events(Storm)
Hydrological events(Flood, mass movement)
Climatological events(Extreme temperature, drought, forest fire)
Geophysical events(Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption)
© 2011 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at May 2011
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%
400%
450%
500%1
98
0
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
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19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
Geophysical events
Storm events
Hydrological events
Temperature extremes and others
Linear (Geophysical events)
Linear (Storm events)
Linear (Hydrological events)
Linear (Temperature extremes and others)
Natural catastrophes worldwide 1980 – 2010Number of events with trend – relative trend per hazard group
NatCatSERVICE
© 2011 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at May 2011
Severe storm
Affected regionScientific detailsDamageAffected people
Affected regionScientific detailsDamageAffected people
Affected regionScientific detailsDamageAffected people
Food Landslide Hail
NatCatSERVICE
Content, Structure and Methodology Multi-Peril-Event
© 2011 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at May 2011
source: AP
NatCatSERVICE
Content, Structure and Methodology Multi-Peril-Event
Severe storm, flash floods July 2007Baiersdorf, Germany
© 2011 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at May 2011
source: AP
NatCatSERVICE
Content, Structure and Methodology Multi-Peril-Event
117m € overall losses
87m € insured losses
in a town of 7,000 people
© 2011 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at May 2011
FOCUS ON EUROPE
Munich Re and the NatCatSERVICE Structure of flood events in the database
Focus on Europe
An insurance perspective of flood events
Natural Catastrophes in Europe 1980 - 2010Map
NatCatSERVICE
Earthquake 1980Italy (Irpinia)Overall losses*: € 11.8bnInsured losses*: € 0.04bnFatalities: 2,900
Floods 2002Europe (Elbe, Danube)Overall losses*: € 21.9bnInsured losses*: € 3.5bn
Heatwave, drought 2003EuropeOverall losses*: € 12.3bnInsured losses*: € 0.02bnFatalities: 70,000**
Winter Storm Daria 1990Europe (esp. United Kingdom)Overall losses*: € 5.9bnInsured losses*: € 4.4bn
Winter Storm Xynthia, storm surge 2010Europe (esp. France)Overall losses*: € 4.5bnInsured losses*: € 2.3bn
Winter Storm Lothar 1999Europe (esp. France)Overall losses*: €11.5bnInsured losses*: € 5.9bn
Heatwave, wildfires 2010RussiaFatalities: 56,000**
Winter Storm Kyrill 2007Europe (esp. Germany)Overall losses*: € 7.8bnInsured losses*: € 4.5bn
Floods, 2007United KingdomOverall losses*: € 6bnInsured losses*: € 4.4bn
Floods 2000Europe (esp. Italy)Overall losses*: € 10bnInsured losses*: € 0.57bn
Floods, flash floods 1994ItalyOverall losses*: € 7.5bnInsured losses*: € 0.05bn
Natural disasters
Deadliest and costliest events*
* Losses in original values** Excess mortality rate
Meteorological events(Storm)
Hydrological events(Flood, mass movement)
Geophysical events(Earthquake, tsunami,
volcanic eruption)
Climatological events(Extreme temperature, drought, wildfire)
Earthquake 2009Italy (L’Aquila)Overall losses*: € 2bnInsured losses*: € 0.2bnFatalities: 295
© 2011 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at May 2011
Natural catastrophes in Europe 1980 – 2010Number of events
NatCatSERVICE
Number
Meteorological events(Storm)
Hydrological events(Flood, mass movement)
Climatological events(Extreme temperature, drought, forest fire)
Geophysical events(Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption)
50
100
150
200
250
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
© 2011 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at May 2011
Natural catastrophes worldwide 1980 - 2010 Percentage distribution: Loss events and fatalities
4,100 Loss events 150,000 Fatalities
NatCatSERVICE
Hydrological events(Flood, mass movement)
Climatological events(Extreme temperature, drought, forest fire)
Meteorological events(Storm)
Geophysical events(Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption)
Earthquake12%
Volcano1% Tsunami
<1%Mass movement dry
<1%
Winterstorm
6%
Blizzard / Snowstorm
1%
Local windstorm4%
Sandstorm<1%
Severe storm16%
Lightning<1%Tornado
3%Hailstorm4%
Flood14%
Flash flood9%
Storm surge<1%
Mass movement wet 7%
Winter damage3%
Cold wave<1%
Heat wave1%
Drought1%
Wildfire10%
Earthquake3%
Flood2% Flash flood
1%Mass movement
wet (av, ls, ro)1%
Cold wave1%
Heat wave93%
© 2011 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at May 2011
1,700 storm events
700 with floods/flash floods
Natural catastrophes in Europe 1980 – 2010Overall and insured losses
NatCatSERVICE
(bn EUR)
Overall losses (in 2010 values) Insured losses (in 2010 values)
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
© 2011 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at May 2011
AN INSURANCE PERSPECTIVE OF FLOOD EVENTS
Munich Re and the NatCatSERVICE Structure of flood events in the database
Focus on Europe
An insurance perspective on flood events
This costs .......
This costs ......
MRNatCatSERVICE
Problems in data chasingEarly loss estimates (often proclaimed by politicians)
Natural catastrophes in Europe 1980 – 2010Overall and insured losses of flood events
NatCatSERVICE
(bn EUR)
Overall losses (in 2010 values) Insured losses (in 2010 values)
© 2011 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at May 2011
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
EUR 29.6 bn
Natural catastrophes in Europe 1980 – 2010Overall losses of flood events
NatCatSERVICE
(bn EUR)
Overall losses (in 2010 values) Insured losses (in 2010 values)
© 2011 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at May 2011
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Natural catastrophes in Europe 1980 – 2010Insured losses of flood events
NatCatSERVICE
(bn EUR)
Overall losses (in 2010 values) Insured losses (in 2010 values)
© 2011 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at May 2011
1
2
3
4
5
6
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
without flood control
T = 0 h
Natural catastrophes in Europe 1980 – 2010An insurance perspective of flood events
NatCatSERVICE
© 2011 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at May 2011
without flood control
T = 4 h
Natural catastrophes in Europe 1980 – 2010An insurance perspective of flood events
NatCatSERVICE
© 2011 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at May 2011
additional measures (e.g. sand bags)
without flood control
T = 6 h
Natural catastrophes in Europe 1980 – 2010An insurance perspective of flood events
NatCatSERVICE
© 2011 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at May 2011
surface flooding
property damage often reduced, sometimes even avoided
without flood control
T = 8 h
Natural catastrophes in Europe 1980 – 2010An insurance perspective of flood events
NatCatSERVICE
© 2011 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at May 2011
with flood control
T = 0
Natural catastrophes in Europe 1980 – 2010An insurance perspective of flood events
NatCatSERVICE
© 2011 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at May 2011
with flood control
T = 4 h
Natural catastrophes in Europe 1980 – 2010An insurance perspective of flood events
NatCatSERVICE
© 2011 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at May 2011
with flood control
T = 6 h
no surface flooding
people feel safe, do not undertake precautionary measures
Natural catastrophes in Europe 1980 – 2010An insurance perspective of flood events
NatCatSERVICE
© 2011 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at May 2011
with flood control
T = 8 h
Natural catastrophes in Europe 1980 – 2010An insurance perspective of flood events
NatCatSERVICE
© 2011 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at May 2011
with flood control
T = 8 h 10 min.
when the dyke fails, no measures are possible anymore
Natural catastrophes in Europe 1980 – 2010An insurance perspective of flood events
NatCatSERVICE
© 2011 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at May 2011
with flood control
T = 8 h 10 min.
high flow velocities causes greater destruction
Natural catastrophes in Europe 1980 – 2010An insurance perspective of flood events
NatCatSERVICE
© 2011 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at May 2011
Natural catastrophes in Europe 1980 – 2010Overall and insured losses of flood events
NatCatSERVICE
Year Region Overall losses(in m EUR)
Insured losses(in m EUR)
% Insured
2010 Croatia. Germany. Hungary. Romania. Slovakia. Czech Republic. Poland. Austria
3,100 230 7,4%
2007 United Kingdom 3,000 2,200 73%
2005 Austria, France, Germany, Hungary, Slovenia, Switzerland
2,700 1,400 51%
2003 France 1,270 750 59%
2002 Germany. Austria. Czech Republic. Hungary. Moldova. Switzerland. Slovakia
16,800 3,500 21%
© 2011 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at May 2011
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!
PETRA LÖW