nam manufacturers’ outlook survey by quartermedia01.commpartners.com/nam/041918/nfib...
TRANSCRIPT
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Revised April 17, 2018
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56.6%
61.7% 61.0%
77.8%
93.3%
89.5% 89.8%
94.6% 93.5%
2016:1 2016:2 2016:3 2016:4 2017:1 2017:2 2017:3 2017:4 2018:1
NAM Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey by Quarter(First Quarter 2016 – First Quarter 2018)
Source: NAM Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey
Note: Percentage of respondents who characterized the current business outlook as somewhat or very positive.
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-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
2016:1 2016:2 2016:3 2016:4 2017:1 2017:2 2017:3 2017:4 2018:1
Expected Manufacturing Growth Over Next 12 Months(First Quarter 2016 – First Quarter 2018)
Sales Exports Capital Investments Full-Time Employment
Avg. 12-Month Growth Rates Sales: ↑ 5.7%
Exports: ↑ 1.2%Capital Investments: ↑ 3.9%
Full-Time Employment: ↑ 2.9%
Source: NAM Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey
Note: Expected growth rates are annual averages.
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5.5%
5.7%
12.0%
15.0%
18.8%
64.6%
68.8%
74.7%
Weaker global growth and slower export sales
Challenges with access to capital
Weaker domestic economy and sales for our products
Strengthened U.S. dollar relative to other currencies
Unfavorable business climate (e.g., taxes, regulations)
Rising raw material costs for our products
Rising health care/insurance costs
Attracting and retaining a quality workforce
Primary Current Business Challenges(First Quarter 2018)
Source: NAM Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey
Note: Respondents were able to check all that apply. Therefore, responses exceed 100 percent.
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-1.4%
-1.0%
-0.6%
-0.2%
0.2%
0.6%
1.0%
1.4%
1.8%
2.2%
2.6%
Jan-17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-18 Feb Mar
Percentage Changes in Manufacturing Production(January 2017 – March 2018)
Manufacturing Durable Goods Nondurable Goods
Source: Federal Reserve Board
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-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
Jan-17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-18 Feb Mar
Year-Over-Year Industrial Production Growth(January 2017 – March 2018)
Industrial Production Manufacturing Durable Goods Nondurable Goods
Source: Federal Reserve Board
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259
200
73
175
155
239
190
221
14
271
216
175 176
326
103
18 2110 10
414
-4
39
6
20 3039
2032
22
Jan-17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-18 Feb Mar
Monthly Changes in Employment(January 2017 – March 2018, in Thousands of Employees)
Nonfarm Payrolls Manufacturing
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
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4.0%
4.1%
4.2%
4.3%
4.4%
4.5%
4.6%
4.7%
4.8%
4.9%
12.30
12.32
12.34
12.36
12.38
12.40
12.42
12.44
12.46
12.48
12.50
12.52
12.54
12.56
12.58
12.60
12.62
12.64
Jan-17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-18 Feb Mar
Employment Situation, January 2017 – March 2018
Manufacturing Employment Unemployment Rate
Millions of Workers Unemployment Rate
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
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1.2%
3.1%3.2%
2.9%
2.5%
3.5%
3.0%
2.8%
2017:I II III IV 2018:I II III IV
Real Gross Domestic Product(Chained 2009 Dollars)
Real GDP Forecast:
↑ 2.3% (2017)
↑ 3.0% (2018)
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, NAM calculations using Moody’s Analytics simulation model
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NFIB SMALL BUSINESS
ECONOMIC TRENDS
11
Thursday, April 19, 2018Washington, D.C.
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Small Business Optimism IndexBased on 10 Survey Indicators
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
76
79
82
85
88
91
94
97
00
03
06
09
12
15
18
Quarterly data (Jan., April, July, Oct.) Monthly data (Feb., Mar.)
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Outlook for General Business ConditionsNet Percent (“Better” minus “Worse”) Six Months from Now
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
74
77
80
83
86
89
92
95
98
01
04
07
10
13
16
Quarterly data (Jan., April, July, Oct.) Monthly data (Feb., Mar.)
Ne
t P
erc
en
t of
Fir
ms
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Percent of Firms Reporting Taxes as Their #1 Business Problem
5
10
15
20
25
30
74
77
80
83
86
89
92
95
98
01
04
07
10
13
16
Quarterly (Jan., Apr., July, Oct.) Monthly data (Feb., Mar.)
Perc
en
t of
Fir
ms
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Percent of Firms Reporting Labor Quality as Their #1 Business Problem
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
74
77
80
83
86
89
92
95
98
01
04
07
10
13
16
Quarterly (Jan., Apr., July, Oct.) Monthly data (Feb., Mar.)
Perc
ent
of
Firm
s
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Unfilled Job OpeningsPercent with at Least One Unfilled Opening
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
76
79
82
85
88
91
94
97
00
03
06
09
12
15
18
Quarterly data (Jan., April, July, Oct.) Monthly data (Feb., Mar.)
Perc
ent
of
Firm
s
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Job Creation PlansNet Percent (“Increase” minus “Decrease”) in Next Three Months
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
76
79
82
85
88
91
94
97
00
03
06
09
12
15
18
Quarterly data (Jan., April, July, Oct.) Monthly data (Feb., Mar.)
Ne
t P
erc
en
t of
Fir
ms
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Changes in Prices and Labor CompensationNet Percent (“Higher” minus “Lower”) Compared to Three Months Ago
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
84
87
90
93
96
99
02
05
08
11
14
17
Compensation Raised Prices
Perc
ent
of
Firm
s
Quarterly data plus Feb. & Mar.
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Actual Earnings ChangesNet Percent (“Higher” minus “Lower”) the Last
Three Months Compared to the Prior Three Months
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
76
79
82
85
88
91
94
97
00
03
06
09
12
15
18
Quarterly data (Jan., April, July, Oct.) Monthly data (Feb., Mar.)
Perc
ent
of
Firm
s
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Planned Capital OutlaysPercent Planning to Make a Capital Expenditure in the Last Six
Months
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
77
80
83
86
89
92
95
98
01
04
07
10
13
16
Quarterly data (Jan., April, July, Oct.) Monthly data (Feb., Mar.)
Perc
ent
of
Firm
s
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Sales ExpectationsNet Percent (“Higher” minus “Lower”) in the
Next Three Months
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
76
79
82
85
88
91
94
97
00
03
06
09
12
15
18
Quarterly data (Jan., April, July, Oct.) Monthly data (Feb., Mar.)
Pe
rce
nt
of
Firm
s
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-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
77
80
83
86
89
92
95
98
01
04
07
10
13
16
Quarterly data (Jan., April, July, Oct.) Monthly data (Feb., Mar.)
Perc
ent
of
Firm
s
Actual Sales ChangesNet Percent (“Higher” minus “Lower”) the Last
Three Months Compared to the Prior Three Months
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Relative Interest Rate Paid by Regular Borrowers
Net Percent (“Higher” Minus “Lower”) Compared to Three Months Ago
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
76
79
82
85
88
91
94
97
00
03
06
09
12
15
18
Quarterly data (Jan., April, July, Oct.) Monthly data (Feb., Mar.)
Perc
ent
of
Firm
s