NaLaMa-nTNachhaltiges Landmanagement im

Norddeutschen Tieflandunter sich ändernden ökologischen, ökonomischen

und gesellschaftlichen Rahmenbedingungen

Sustainable Land Management in the North German Lowlands

Gouvernment-sponsored by „Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung“

goal - Sustainable Land Management in the North German Lowlandsunder consideration of different developments in nature and society

Background and Motivation A sustainable land management of the 21 century has to be developed and observed in due consideration of the effects of global change. The changes in natural resources, produce and financial markets, as well as climate change, pose great challenge and substantial influence on the chances and risks of forestry and agriculture. In addition, structural regional changes are very important. They demand adaptation in land management and, if necessary, reorientation. On the evidence of the already existing and still growing uncertainties, these measures should be conceived in such a way that they allow for a flexible reaction on changing conditions und consider the interactions between different land-use systems.  The following severe changes have already occurred or are likely to arise:

 the demand of food, timber and other renewable raw materials rises worldwide,

new production and processing capacities for both substantial and energetic utilisation are built,

the intensity of both agricultural and silvicultural land use rises,

habitat range and biodiversity are restrained in many ways,

production basis, risks and yield prospects change due to the expected resp. already ongoing climate change and the atmospheric element input,

the demand for drinking water in conurbations and for raw water in agriculture rises,

German population ages and increasingly leaves rural areas,

the regional consumer structure alters,

areal competition between agriculture, forestry, production (food, substantial and energetic utilisation) and nature conservation increases,

interests and utilisation conflicts in competing for water aggravate among land users.

interdisciplinarity and tasks

Dümmer; moor, agriculture

agriculture

forestry

agriculture; lakes and woods

Areas under investigation

project structure

project co-ordination

project presentation for stakeholders

PIK‘s project contribution

provision of observed and scenario data

expert advice for use of climatological data

climate analysis

calculation of different climate scenarios (2011 – 2070) using the model STARS

selection of RCP-scenario RCP 8.5

Annual mean of air temperature

ca. 3.0 – 6.5 K / 100a

Annual mean of the daily sum of precipitation

ca. -220 - +218 mm / 100a(annual sum)

Models

Gelb: Schwankungsbreite der einzelnen Jahreswerte

source: P. Hoffmann, PIKselection of temperature trend

maxt

medtmint

Difference of the mean frequency of days with frost and without snow 2041/2070 – 1981/2010

Mean frequency of days with frost and without snow 1981 – 2010example for climate analysis

PartnersAbteilung für Hydrologie und Wasserwirtschaft, Institut für Natur- und Ressourcenschutz, Christian-

Albrechts-Universität KielDepartment Bodenphysik, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Umweltforschung GmbH (UFZ), LeipzigFG Landschaftsökonomie, Institut für Landschaftsarchitektur und Umweltplanung, TU BerlinGeorg-August-Universität Göttingen

Abteilung GraslandwissenschaftAbteilung Allgemeine Pflanzenpathologie und PflanzenschutzAbteilung Produktionssysteme der NutztiereAbteilung für Forstökonomie und ForsteinrichtungAbteilung Forst- und Naturschutzpolitik und Forstgeschichte

Institut für Agrar- und Ernährungswissenschaften, Universität Halle-WittenbergLandeskompetenzzentrum Forst Eberswalde (LFE), Landesbetrieb Forst Brandenburg, EberswaldeLandkreis DiepholzLandkreis UelzenLehrstuhl für Landschaftsökologie, Hochschule VechtaLeibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung (ZALF) e.V., Müncheberg

Institut für LandnutzungssystemeInstitut für Sozioökonomie

Nordwestdeutsche Forstliche Versuchsanstalt (NW-FVA), GöttingenAbteilung WaldwachstumAbteilung WaldschutzAbteilung Umweltkontrolle

Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK), PotsdamProfessur für Phytomedizin, Agrar- und Umweltwissenschaftliche Fakultät, Universität RostockRegionale Planungsgemeinschaft Havelland-Fläming, TeltowRegionale Planungsgemeinschaft Oderland-Spree, BeeskowRegionale Planungsgemeinschaft Anhalt-Bitterfeld-Wittenberg, Köthen

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