my view on organovo (over-) valuation
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7/22/2019 My View on Organovo (Over-) Valuation
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Gy vcmw bf … dbw gukd Br`nfbvb (BFQB) cs rmniiy wbrtd2
- N tmftntcvm vniuntcbf nttmgpt … uscf` Cfpsdmrbs– tmkdfbib`y! ‛
-01% jbwfscjm rcsl
/dmy … jbf–t trust gm … C–g prbhnhiy wrbf` … ns niwnys/
Br`nfbvb Dbijcf`s, Cfk., n puhick kbgpnfy vniumj npprbxcgntmiy ba ][J 0??g, jmvmibps tdrmm-
jcgmfscbfni (;J) hcb prcftcf` tmkdfbib`y abr krmntcf` aufktcbfni dugnf tcssums bf jmgnfj abr
rmsmnrkd nfj gmjckni nppickntcbfs. Zdm kbgpnfy–s ;J Fbvb@mf hcb prcftcf` tmkdfbib`y wbrls nkrbss
vnrcbus tcssum nfj kmii typms, nfj niibws abr tdm pinkmgmft ba kmiis cf jmscrmj pnttmrf.
Cf[pdmrb N@, n prcvntmiy dmij [wcss hnsmj Kbgpnfy, cs n imnjcf` suppicmr ba br`nfbtypck, hcbib`ckni
cf vctrb ;J gckrb tcssums abr dc`diy prmjcktcvm jru` tmstcf`. Zdm kbgpnfy kurrmftiy kbufts nii ba tdm
tbp tmf `ibhni pdnrgnkmutckni nfj kbsgmtcks kbgpnfcms ns kustbgmrs nfj cs dmipcf` tdmg tb
cgpimgmft cts pntmftmj gckrb tcssum tmkdfbib`y cf tdmcr jmvmibpgmft wbrl-aibw.
Cf[pdmrb ;J Cfsc`dtℨ Gckrb tcssums mfnhim gbrm hcbib`ckniiy rmimvnft cf vctrb nppickntcbfs cf
maacknky (m.`. cf bfkbib`y) nfj tbxckbib`y, cfkiujcf` ibf`-tmrg nfj cfainggntcbf-gmjcntmj tbxckcty
tmstcf`. N hrbnj pbrtabicb ba tugbr nfj icvmr gckrb tcssums cs nvncinhim, wctd njjctcbfni tbxckbib`y
gbjmis cf tdm pcpmicfm. Cf[pdmrb's ;J gckrb tcssums nrm gbrm prmjcktcvm, inst ibf`mr nfj nrm gbrm
naabrjnhim tdnf kbfvmftcbfni kmii-hnsmj gbjmis. (dttp5//www.cfspdmrb.kbg/kbgpnfy)
Ns tdm KMB pbcftmj but jurcf` tdm rmkmft (Jmk. =, 8?>;) prmsmftntcbf, Cfvmstbrs sdbuij fbt mxpmkt
BFQB tb stnrt _rcftcf` Br`nfs. Dm jmskrchmj BFQB–s pbtmftcni gnrlmt ns abiibws5
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Zdm sicjm nhbvm, `cvms gbrm jmtncis nhbut tdm ’rmvmfum pbtmftcni‗ jcskibsmj hy tdm Kbgpnfy cf
tdm >>/8?/8?>; _X.
]fjmr sukd n jmacfctcbf ba tdm Gnrlmt BFQB cftmfjs tb mftmr cf, Kyprbtmx (Icstmj bf tdm I[M ) sdbuij
nisb hm cfkiujmj ns n pbtmftcni kbgpmtctbr.
’Kyprbtmx cf kbiinhbrntcbf wctd Cf[pdmrb cs kb-gnrlmtcf` nfj prbvcjcf` smrvckms rmintmj tb
Cf[pdmrb's prbprcmtnry ;J Cfsc`dtZG rnt nfj dugnf icvmr gckrb tcssum tmkdfbib`cms. Btdmr gckrb
tcssum smrvckms nrm mxpmktmj tb abiibw ns tdm uptnlm ba ;J kmiis abr Zbxckbib`y tmstcf` `ntdmrs pnkm.‗
Dbw gukd jcj Xmkmftiy _rcvntm Mqucty Cfvmstbrs Qnium Cfspdmrb N@2 Gy hmst @umss.
>. Cfsdpmrb N@ smkurmj cts acrst ([mrcms N) Acfnfkcf` cf Nu`ust 8?>?
Uurckd, [wctzmrinfj, Nu`ust 1, 8?>? ‛ Cf[pdmrb N@, n suppicmr ba fbvmi ;J kmii-hnsmj nssnys abr
maacknky tmstcf` nfj tbxckbib`y, nffbufkmj ct dns smkurmj KDA>,4??,??? acfnfkcf` (npprbx. ][J
8,???,???) imj hy Xmjnipcfm Qmfturm _nrtfmrs. (?1/Nu`/8?>? ‛ Icfl )
?8/Nu`/8?>?, tdm Kbgpnfy's Knpctni (fbgcfni) wns cfkrmnsmj hy KDA 88'?=4 (arbg KDA >??,???).
88'?=4> fmw sdnrms wmrm cssumj nt n fbgcfni vnium ba KDA >.?? / sdnrm. (?8/Nu`/8?>? ‛ Icfl )
Zdm Kbgpnfy cssumj 88,?=4 sdnrms cf mxkdnf`m ba npprbx. ][J 8,???,??? cf knpctni. (_rckm pmr sdnrm5
npprbx. ][J 3?.?? pmr sdnrm)
Nu`ust 8?>? Acfnfkcf` Xbufj Cgpicmj Kbgpnfy Qniuntcbf5 ][J >?,34=,88?
8. Cfsdpmrb N@ smkurmj cts smkbfj ([mrcms H) Acfnfkcf` cf Eufm 8?>;
’…[ukkmssauiiy kibsmj n acfnfkcf` rbufj ba KDA 8–???–??? inst gbftd (npprbx. 8–8??–??? ][J).
Zdcs smrcms H acfnfkcf` wns …’(>;/Eufm/8?>; ‛ Icfl )
?=/Euiy/8?>;, tdm Kbgpnfy's Knpctni (fbgcfni) wns cfkrmnsmj hy KDA 8:,:0? (arbg KDA 8?4'13:).
8:,:0? fmw sdnrms wmrm cssumj nt n fbgcfni vnium ba KDA >.?? / sdnrm. (?=/Euiy/8?>;‛ Icfl )
> Lmy nssugptcbf5 nii tdm sdnrms cssumj wmrm usmj cf tdm Acfnfkcf` Zrnfsnktcbf. Ca tdcs nssugptcbf cs aniscacmj, tdmf tdm
mftcrm rmsuits kbuij hm embpnrjczmj! Dbwmvmr, ct cs dc`diy uficlmiy tb kbfjukt n rbufj ba acfnfkcf` abr imss tdnf =% ba
tdm vnium ba tdm Kbgpnfy (cf tdm [tnrt-]p wbrij).
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Zdm kbgpnfy cssumj 8:,:0? sdnrms cf mxkdnf`m ba npprbx. ][J 8,8??,??? cf knpctni. (_rckm pmr sdnrm
7 npprbx. ][J 3?.?? pmr sdnrm)
Nu`ust 8?>? Acfnfkcf` Xbufj Cgpicmj Kbgpnfy Qniuntcbf5 ][J 8?,34:,01?8
Zb cftrbjukm n kmrtncf jm`rmm ba aimxchcicty (tdus kbrrmktcf` abr pbsschim Mrrbrs) wm usm nf Cgpicmj
Kbgpnfy Qnium ba ][J ;8.=?g (cfstmnj ba tdm knikuintmj ][J 8>g)
Nssugcf` Cfspdmrb N@ dns zmrb jmhts nfj zmrb Knsd, tdm rmsuitcf` Mftmrprcsm Qnium (MQ) wbuij hm
][J ;8.=?g.
BFQB–s MQ cs ][J 1:=g! Gbrm tdnf >3.4: tcgms dc`dmr tdnf Cfspdmrb MQ (][J ;8.=?g)
Aurtdmrgbrm, ca ybu wmrm tb kbfscjmr tdnt
- Cfspdmrb cs nirmnjy `mfmrntcf` rmvmfum / smiicf` tdm tcssums,
- Cfspdmrb kbufts nii ba tdm tbp tmf `ibhni pdnrgnkmutckni nfj kbsgmtcks kbgpnfcms ns kustbgmrs,
- Cfspdmrb–s tcssums nfj tmkdfbib`y cs nirmnjy usmj/stujcmj hy _aczmr nfj Xbkdm
- tdm sdmia icam ba Cfspdmrb ;J icvmr Gckrb-Zcssums (dug.) cs 1? jnys vs. :? jnys ba BFQB icvmr tcssums
- Cfspdmrb dns nigbst sngm fughmr ba wbrlmrs ba BFQB (8=)
…. ybu wcii dnvm n dnrj tcgm … tb eustcay BFQB–s kurrmft Gnrlmt Knpctniczntcbf!
BFQB nfj Cfspdmrb nrm twb vmry scgcinr kbgpnfcms (CGB, Cfspdmrb cs n icttim hct ndmnj ba BFQB
arbg n tmkdfbib`ckni nfj mxmkutcbfni pbcft ba vcmw / smm [mptmghmr 8?>; Cfspdmrb _rmsmftntcbf).
Zdm twb Kbgpnfcms jb dbwmvmr dnvm twb kbgpimtm jcaamrmft vniuntcbfs!
_rcvntm Mqucty (_M) Xmjnipcfm vniumj Cfspdmrb N@ nt ][J ;8.=?g cf Eufm 8?>; jurcf` tdm inst
acfnfkcf` rbufj, wdcim Crrntcbfni Xmtnci cfvmstbrs nrm kurrmftiy vniucf` BFQB nt n wdbppcf`
][J 1:=g MQ! (N >–44: % prmgcug / nssugcf` BFQB nfj Cfspdmrb nrm scgcinr kbgpnfcms)
Pmii, sbrry `uys … hut C jb trust gbrm tb _rcvntm Mqucty Mxpmrts rntdmr tdnf tb Crrntcbfni Gnrlmts
_nrtckcpnfts! Jbf–t ybu2
8 Ct cs dc`diy uficlmiy tb kbfjukt n rbufj ba acfnfkcf` abr imss tdnf =% ba tdm vnium ba tdm Kbgpnfy (cf tdm [tnrt-]p
wbrij). Ct abiibws tdnt wm hmicmvm wctd n dc`d jm`rmm ba kmrtncfty tdnt tdm tbtni Qnium ba Cfspdmrb (ns ba Eufm 8?>;) wns
fbt dc`dmr tdnf ][J. Abr bur nfniyscs wm usmj tdm rmsuitcf` nvmrn`m ba ][J ;8.=?g
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Jbms tdm Ankt tdnt BFQB cs n puhick trnjmj Kbgpnfy, nfj jbms tdmrmabrm baamr cts sdnrmdbijmrs n
jm`rmm ba icqucjcty bf tdmcr cfvmstgmfts, eustcay n >–44:% _rmgcug!2 Fbt sb surm nhbut tdnt!
Nssugcf` tdnt5
>. _rcvntm Mqucty (_M) cfvmstbrs mftmrmj cftb Cfspdmrb nt n hnr`ncf-prckm (mstcgntcf` tdm AQ ba
Cfspdmrb nt ][J 1=g ‛ npprbx. >??% dc`dmr)
8. N ;:% Gnrlmt Icqucjcty JC[KB]FZ;
Ct abiibws tdnt tdm Gnrlmt Qnium (7MQ) ba N icstmj Cfspdmrb wbuij hm npprbxcgntmiy ][J 34g
MQ ba BFQC cs kurrmftiy ][J 1:=g (1.=4 tcgms dc`dmr)
Hnsmj bf Cfspdmrb N@ vniuntcbf, BFQB sdbuij dnvm n Gnrlmt Knp ba ][J >=>G (MQ+ fmt knsd)
Kbrrmspbfjcf` tb n _rckm pmr [dnrm (__[) ba ][J 8.?3
BFQB, nt kurrmft _rckms (][J 3.?8), cs ;;>% Bvmrvniumj!
-01.4;% jbwfscjm rcsl abrg dmrm!
- Kbgpnrcf` Br`nfbvb tb Kyprbtmx (Icstmj bf tdm I[M)
Zdm Gnrlmt Knp ba Kyprbtmx cs @H_ >0.1=g (7 ][J 84.00g)
Jb ybur gntd!
; Zdm [cihmr rm`rmsscbf jbms prbvcjm us wctd n smfsm ba dbw jcaamrmft tdm jcskbuft wcii hm abr n rg wctd sgnii rmvmfums
vmrsus bfm wctd inr`m rmvmfums. Abr Gbrm Jmtncis smm [icjms ;8-;; ba tdcs _rmsmftntcbf
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[BGM NJJCZCBFNI CFABXGNZCBF NH]B]Z CF[_DMXB
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Kbgpimtm Cfspdmrb–s prmsmftntcbf5 Dmrm