mvb final ppt - the stephen s. fuller institute
TRANSCRIPT
3/1/2017
1
MVB Banking
The U.S. and Washington Region’s Economy: What to Expect
in 2017 and How the The Trump Administration May Impact
Near-Term Performance
Stephen S. Fuller, Ph.D.Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor
Director, Stephen S. Fuller InstituteSchar School of Policy and Government
George Mason University
February 21, 2017
How did the U.S. economy performed in 2016 and what is the outlook for 2017?
How is the Northern Virginia economy performing?
How did the local housing market perform in 2016?
What is the Washington region’s and NVA’s economic outlook?
Questions to be Addressed
3/1/2017
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How did the U.S. economy perform in 2016 and what is the outlook for 2017?
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
% Chan
ge in GDP*
Quarters After Trough
1982-Q3
1991-Q1
2001-Q4**
2009-Q2
Recession Recovery Patterns of GDPPast Four Recessions
*in 1992 or 2009 Chained Dollars** Quarters 26+ include the 2009 RecessionSources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
3/1/2017
3
-8,000
-6,000
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
U.S. Annual Change in Payroll JobsMonth-Over-The-Year
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
(000s) Jan = +2.1M
42
6
90
67
33
109
187
-35
297
216
74
530
516
-600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800
Federal Govt.
Information
Transp. & Util.
Other Services
Wlse Trade
Construction
Financial
Manufacturing
Leisure & Hosp.
Retail Trade
State & Local Govt
Prof. & Bus. Svcs
Educ & Health Svcs
U.S. Payroll Job Change by SectorJanuary 2016 – January 2017
Ranked by Size in 2015 (000s) Total = 2,132
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
3/1/2017
4
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
U.S. Unemployment RateJanuary 2009 – January 2017
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), IHS Economics (January 2017), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
%
IHS Forecast17 – 4.618 – 4.319 – 4.120 – 4.221 – 4.3
Jan = 4.8%
(25.0)
(20.0)
(15.0)
(10.0)
(5.0)
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
U.S. Leading IndexMonth-Over-Year Percent Change
Sources: The Conference Board, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
3/1/2017
5
(10.0)
(8.0)
(6.0)
(4.0)
(2.0)
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
U.S. Coincident IndexMonth-Over-Year Percent Change
Sources: The Conference Board, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Brent Crude Spot Price$ per barrel
Sources: IHS Economics (January 2017), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
($/barrel)
Forecast
3/1/2017
6
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Consumer PricesPercent Change, 2001 - 2020
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, IHS Economics (January 2017), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
(%)
Forecast
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
30-Yr
10-YrTreasury
Fed
U.S. Interest RatesAverage Annual, 2001 - 2020
Sources: IHS Economics (January 2017), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
(%)
Forecast
3/1/2017
7
3.1
3.83.5
3
2.2
-0.3
-1.6
1.92.3
1.5 1.5
2.93.2
2.7 2.83.2
2.92.4 2.3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Growth in Total Consumption Outlays
Forecast
(%)
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Economics (January 2017), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
U.S. Gross Domestic ProductQuarterly Change: 2007 – 2017
%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Forecast
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Economics (January 2017), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
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8
How is the Northern Virginia economy performing?
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Washington Metropolitan AreaAnnual Job Change, 2002-2016
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Annual Change Annual Month-Over-Year Change(000s)
3/1/2017
9
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Northern VirginiaAnnual Job Change, 2002-2016
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Annual Change Annual Month-Over-Year Change(000s)
0
2
1
-2
0
-1
2
1
3
6
0
4
14
-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Transportation & Utilities
Information
Construction
Financial Activities
Other Services
Federal Govt
Leisure & Hospitality
Retail Trade
State & Local Govt
Edu.& Health Services
Prof. & Business Services
Northern Virginia Job Change by Sector December 2015 – December 2016
Ranked by Size in 2015 (000s)Total = 30,000
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
3/1/2017
10
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20Professional, Scientific & Technical Services & Management Administrative & Waste Management
Professional and Business Services JobsNorthern Virginia
Annual Month Over-the-Year(000s)
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
Dec 16 Total = 403.9
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8Hospitals Ambulatory Health Care, Nursing & Residential Care Educational Services
Education and Health Services JobsNorthern Virginia
Annual Month Over-the-Year(000s)
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
Dec 16 Total = 159.1
3/1/2017
11
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Federal Government JobsNorthern Virginia
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Annual Change Annual Month-Over-Year Change(000s)
Dec 16 Total: 86.9
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10 Accommodation Food Services & Drinking Places Entertainment
Leisure and Hospitality Services JobsNorthern Virginia
Annual Month Over-the-Year(000s)
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
Dec 16 Total = 140.5
3/1/2017
12
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
5.4 – DC4.7 – U.S.3.4 – MSA3.3 – SMD3.1 – NVA
Washington Metropolitan AreaUnemployment Rates By Sub-State Area, 2009-2016
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
(%)
How did the Northern Virginia housing market perform in 2016?
3/1/2017
13
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Percent Change in Inventories of Existing Homes Northern Virginia
Month-Over-Year 2000 – 2016(%)
Jan 17: -12.6%
Sources: RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI) , Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS) Stephen S. Fuller Institute Total monthly inventory includes listings active at the end of the month plus sales during the month
Total Listings Per Sale, Washington MSAJan Each Year
Sources: RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI) , Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS) Stephen S. Fuller Institute
0
5
10
15
20
25
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
ARLLD
PW
PG
DC
MONT
FFX
3/1/2017
14
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Median House Sales PriceNorthern Virginia
Sources: RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI) , Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS) Stephen S. Fuller Institute
Jan 17: $402.5k(000s of $)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600Single-FamilyDetached
All Types
Single-FamilyAttached
Condo
Average House Sales PriceNorthern Virginia
(000s of $)
Sources: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS) Stephen S. Fuller Institute
3/1/2017
15
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010 Jan
Mar
May Jul
Sep
Nov Jan
Mar
May Jul
SepNov Jan
Mar
May Jul
Sep
Nov Jan
Mar
May Jul
SepNov Jan
Mar
May Jul
Sep
Nov Jan
Average Sales Price Percent ChangeNorthern Virginia: All Housing Types
(%)Annual Change Annual Month-Over-Year Change
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Sources: RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI) , Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS) Stephen S. Fuller Institute
What is the Washington region’s and Northern Virginia’s economic outlook?
3/1/2017
16
Washington Metropolitan AreaEmployment Change by Sub-State Area (000s)
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
D.C. 5.9 14.7 11.6 10.8 7.7 6.8 8.9 5.9
Sub. MD 11.8 17.4 26.1 22.0 19.6 17.0 17.0 10.8
No. VA 0.9 27.3 33.9 27.1 18.7 18.9 18.8 17.4
REGION 18.6 59.4 71.6 59.9 46.0 42.7 44.7 34.1
Source: BLS, IHS Economics, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMUNOTE: The regional totals do not include Jefferson, WV.
Average Annual Change 1990-2010 = 36,000
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Washington
U.S.
U.S. GDP and Washington Area GRP 2007 – 2015 – 2020
(Annual % Change)(%)
Forecast
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Economics (January 2017), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
3/1/2017
17
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
NoVA
WMSA
Sub MD
DC
Washington Area and Sub-State AreasEconomic Outlook (GRP), 2007-2020
(Annual % Change)(%)
Forecast
Sources: The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
Thank you
Questions
sfullerinstitute.gmu.edu