Multi-model intercomparison of the impact of SORCE measurements in climate models TOSCA WG1 Workshop 14-16 May 2012, Berlin K. Matthes (1), F. Hansen (1),

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<ul><li><p>Multi-model intercomparison of the impact of SORCE measurements in climate modelsTOSCA WG1 Workshop 14-16 May 2012, Berlin</p><p> K. Matthes(1), F. Hansen(1), J.D. Haigh(2), J.W. Harder(3), S. Ineson(4), K. Kodera(5,6), U. Langematz(7), D.R. Marsh(8), A.W. Merkel(3), P.A. Newman(9), S. Oberlnder(7), A.A. Scaife(4), R.S. Stolarski(9,10), W.H. Swartz(11) </p><p> (1) Helmholtz-Zentrum fr Ozeanforschung Kiel (GEOMAR), Kiel, Germany; (2) Imperial College, London, UK; (3) LASP, CU, Boulder, USA; (4) Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK; (5) Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan; (6) STEL University of Nagoya, Nagoya, Japan; (7) Freie Universitt Berlin, Institute fr Meteorologie, Berlin, Germany; (8) NCAR, Boulder USA; (9) NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, USA; (10) John Hopkins University, Baltimore, USA; (11) JHU Applied Physics Laboratory, Laurel, USA </p></li><li><p>Introduction &amp; Motivation</p><p>Model Descriptions &amp; Experimental Design</p><p>Preliminary results from the multi-model comparison</p><p>Summary</p><p>OutlookOutline</p></li><li><p>SIMs solar spectral irradiance measurements from April 2004 to December 2008 and inferences of their climatic implications are incompatible with the historical solar UV irradiance database [] but are consistent with known effects of instrument sensitivity drifts. </p><p>To prevent future research following a path of unrealistic solar-terrestrial behavior, the SORCE SIM observations should be used with extreme caution in studies of climate and atmospheric change until additional validation and uncertainty estimates are available.</p><p>Introduction Lean and DeLand (2012)</p></li><li><p>Do the SIM measurements provide real solar behavior or are they related to instrument drifts?</p><p>What are the effects of larger UV variability on the atmospheric response? </p><p>Motivation 2 Questions</p></li><li><p>Top-Down MechanismGray et al. (2010)</p></li><li><p>Top-Down: Dynamical Interactions and Transfer to the Troposphere 10-day mean wave-mean flow interactions (Max-Min)uMatthes et al. (2006)</p></li><li><p>Significant tropospheric effects (AO-like pattern) result from changes in wave forcing in the stratosphere and troposphere which changes the meridional circulation and surface pressureMatthes et al. (2006)Modeled Signal near Earth Surface Monthly mean Differences geop. Height (Max-Min) 1000hPa</p></li><li><p>Uncertainty in Solar Irradiance DataSolar Max-MinNRLSSI vs. SATIRELean et al. (2005)Krivova et al. (2006) larger variation in Krivova data in 200-300 and 300-400nm range SORCE measurements from 2004 through 2007 show very different spectral distribution (in-phase with solar cycle in UV, out-of-phase in VIS and NIR)=&gt; Implications for solar heating and ozone chemistryNRLSSI vs. SIM/SORCE</p></li><li><p>Participating ModelsModel Description &amp;Experimental DesignCaveat: all models used a slightly different experimental setup, so it wont be possible to do an exact comparison!SOCOL, T42, L39, 0.01 hPa, nudged QBO, see talk by Eugene Rozanov this afternoon</p></li><li><p>Differences in Experimental Setup</p></li><li><p>Experimental DesignTime series of F10.7cm solar flux SC23solar max 2004solar min 2007</p></li><li><p>January Mean Differences (25N-25S)Shortwave Heating Rate (K/d)Temperature (K) larger shortwave heating rate and temperature differences for SORCE than NRL SSI data FUB-EMAC and HadGEM only include radiation, not ozone effects</p></li><li><p>January Mean Differences (25N-25S)Ozone (%)Temperature (K) larger ozone variations below 10hPa and smaller variations above for SORCE than NRL SSI data height for negative ozone signal in upper strat. differs between models</p></li><li><p> Large Multi Model Mean: all 5 models (FUB-EMAC, GEOS, HadGEM, IC2D, WACCM)</p><p> Small Multi Model Mean: 3 models (GEOS, HadGEM, WACCM)Definition Ensemble Mean</p></li><li><p>Shortwave Heating Rate Differences January (K/d)Large multi-model mean (EMAC-FUB, GEOS, HadGEM, IC2D, WACCM)Small multi-model mean (GEOS, HadGEM, WACCM)NRL SSISORCE NRL SSI shortwave heating rates: 0.2 K/d SORCE shortwave heating rates: 0.9 K/d (4x NRL SSI response)</p></li><li><p>Temperature Differences January (K)Large multi-model mean (EMAC-FUB, GEOS, HadGEM, IC2D, WACCM)Small multi-model mean (GEOS, HadGEM, WACCM) NRL SSI temperatures: 0.3 to 0.6 K (stratopause) SORCE temperatures: 1.5 to 1.8 K (5x NRL SSI response) colder polar stratosphereNRL SSISORCE</p></li><li><p>Ozone Differences January (%)Large multi-model mean (GEOS, IC2D, WACCM)NRL SSISORCE larger ozone variations below 10hPa and smaller variations above for SORCE than NRL SSI data height for negative ozone signal in upper strat. differs between models</p></li><li><p>Zonal Wind Differences January (m/s)Large multi-model mean (EMAC-FUB, GEOS, HadGEM, IC2D, WACCM)Small multi-model mean (GEOS, HadGEM, WACCM) consistently stronger zonal wind signals for SORCE than NRL SSI data wind signal in SORCE data characterized by strong westerly winds at polar latitudes, and significant and similar signals in NH troposphereNRL SSISORCE</p></li><li><p>SORCE Differences NH Winter small ensemble meanZonal mean zonal wind (m/s)DecemberJanuaryFebruary downward extension of westerly zonal wind signals to the troposphere</p></li><li><p>SORCE Geopot. Height Differences January (gpdm)500 hPa100 hPaNAO/AO positive signal during solar max10 hPa</p></li><li><p>Solar Cycle &amp; NAOSolar Max: NAO positive (high index)Colder stratosphere =&gt; stronger NAO, i.e. stronger Iceland low, higher pressure over Azores amplified storm track </p><p> mild conditions over northern Europe and eastern US </p><p>=&gt; dry conditions in the mediterranean</p></li><li><p>Solar Cycle &amp; NAOSolar Max: NAO positive (high index)Solar Min: NAO negative (low index)Matthes (2011)</p></li><li><p> Consistently larger amplitudes in 2004 to 2007 in solar signals for SORCE than for NRL SSI data in temperature, ozone, shortwave heating rates, zonal winds and geopotential heights</p><p> Larger ozone variations below 10hPa and smaller variations above for SORCE than NRL SSI data; height for negative ozone signal in upper stratosphere differs between models</p><p> Solar cycle effect on AO/NAO contributes to substantial fraction of typical year-to-year variations and therefore is a potentially useful source of improved decadal climate predictability (Ineson et al. (2011))</p><p> Results for the SORCE spectral irradiance data are provisional because of the need for continued degradation correction validation and because of the short length of the SORCE time series which does not cover a full solar cycle</p><p>Summary</p></li><li><p>Paper on multi-model comparison to be submitted before 31st July</p><p>coordinated sensitivity experiments within the SPARC-SOLARIS Initiative for a typical solar max (2002) and solar min (2008) spectrum from the NRL SSI, SATIRE and the SORCE (and possibly other data or reconstructions? SCIA, COSI?) data to investigate the atmospheric and surface climate response between the models in a more consistent way</p><p> SOLARIS/HEPPA workshop 9-12 October 2012 in Boulder </p><p> http://www2.acd.ucar.edu/heppasolaris</p><p>Outlook</p></li><li><p>Estes Park/RMNP, 10-15-2011</p><p>Thank you very much!</p></li><li><p>Shortwave Heating Rate Differences January (K/d)EMAC-FUBGEOSIC2DHadGEMWACCMNRL SSISORCE NRL SSI shortwave heating rates: 0.2 to 0.3 K/d SORCE shortwave heating rates: 0.7 to &gt;1.0 K/d (3x NRL SSI response)</p></li><li><p>Temperature Differences January (K)EMAC-FUBGEOSIC2DHadGEMWACCMNRL SSISORCE</p></li><li><p>Ozone Differences January (%)EMAC-FUBGEOSIC2DHadGEMWACCMNRL SSISORCE larger ozone variations below 10hPa and smaller variations above for SORCE than NRL SSI data height for negative ozone signal in upper strat. differs between models</p></li><li><p>Ozone Differences January (%)Large multi-model mean (EMAC-FUB, GEOS, HadGEM, IC2D, WACCM)Small multi-model mean (GEOS, IC2D, WACCM)NRL SSISORCE larger ozone variations below 10hPa and smaller variations above for SORCE than NRL SSI data height for negative ozone signal in upper strat. differs between models</p></li><li><p>Annual Mean Tropical ProfilesTemperature (K)Ozone (%)SPARC CCMVal (2010)</p></li><li><p>SORCE Wind Differences NH WinterEMAC-FUBGEOSIC2DHadGEMWACCMDecJanFeb</p></li><li><p>Zonal Wind Differences January (m/s)EMAC-FUBGEOSIC2DHadGEMWACCMNRL SSISORCE consistently stronger zonal wind signals for SORCE than NRL SSI data wind signal in SORCE data characterized by strong westerly winds at polar latitudes, and significant and similar signals in NH troposphere</p></li><li><p>SORCE Wind Differences NH WinterLarge multi-model mean (EMAC-FUB, GEOS, HadGEM, IC2D, WACCM)Small multi-model mean (GEOS, HadGEM, WACCM)DecJanFeb</p></li><li><p>SORCE Geopot. Height Differences January (gpdm)EMAC-FUBGEOSHadGEMWACCM500 hPa100 hPa10 hPaNAO/AO positive signal during solar max strongest for HadGEM and WACCM</p></li><li><p>SORCE Geopot. Height Differences January (gpdm)Large multi-model mean (EMAC-FUB, GEOS, HadGEM, WACCM)Small multi-model mean (GEOS, HadGEM, WACCM)500 hPa100 hPa10 hPaNAO/AO positive signal during solar max strongest for HadGEM and WACCM</p></li><li><p>Solar Min Surface Pressure Signal Ineson et al. (2011) Model (HadGEM) Observations (Reanalyses)90 (95%)significances25 (50%) of interannualstandard deviation</p></li><li><p>SORCE/SIM measurements from 2004 to 2007: increased solar spectral irradiance at UV and IR wavelengths even as solar and TSI decreased =&gt; SIM spectral data into climate models =&gt; the effects of solar variability on temperature throughout the atmosphere may be contrary to current expectations (Haigh et al., 2010) =&gt; higher solar activity cools Earth But:SIM trends relative to TSI and solar activity during solar min =&gt; unlikely to be solar in origin It is doubtful that simulations of climate and atmospheric change using SIM measurements are indicative of real behavior in the Earths climate and atmosphere. (Lean and DeLand, 2012)SIMs solar spectral irradiance measurements from April 2004 to December 2008 and inferences of their climatic implications are incompatible with the historical solar UV irradiance database [] but are consistent with known effects of instrument sensitivity drifts. (Lean and DeLand, 2012)To prevent future research following a path of unrealistic solar-terrestrial behavior, the SORCE SIM observations should be used with extreme caution in studies of climate and atmospheric change until additional validation and uncertainty estimates are available.(Lean and DeLand, 2012)</p><p>Motivation</p><p>Eine Motivationsfolie daraus machen!*Prozent oder ppmv??*Nur small ensemble mean fr wind und geopotential!!!!!!!!!!!!!111*Hier stimmt irgendetwas nicht, small und large msste doch die gleiche Anzahl an Modellen sein?? Es sind ja nur drei, die Ozon interaktiv berechnen*</p></li></ul>