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Sir Muir Russell's review into the University of East Anglia's climate emails

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The Independent Climate Change E-mails ReviewJuly 2010

Chair: Sir Muir Russell Review team: Professor Geoffrey Boulton Professor Peter Clarke David Eyton Professor James Norton

INDEX OF CONTENTSGLOSSARY Chapter 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1.1 Introduction 1.2 The Review Process 1.3 Findings 1.3.1 Land Station Temperatures 1.3.2 Temperature Reconstructions from Tree Ring Analysis 1.3.3 Peer Review and Editorial Policy 1.3.4 Misuse of IPCC Process 1.3.5 Compliance with the Freedom of Information Act (FoIA) and the Environmental Information Regulations (EIR) 1.3.6 Other Findings on Governance 1.4 Recommendations 1.5 Broader Issues INTRODUCTION 2.1 Background 2.2 The Review TERMS OF REFERENCE AND METHOD OF ENQUIRY 3.1 Terms of Reference 3.2 Method of Enquiry CONTEXT OF THE E-MAILS 4.1 Characterising the E-mails 4.2 The Timeline 4.3 What the E-mails Tell Us THE CHANGING CONTEXT OF MODERN SCIENCE 5.1 The Scientific Process 5.2 The Nature of Climate Science 5.3 Data Accessibility in the Digital Age 5.4 Handling Uncertainty 5.5 Scientific Journals and the Peer Review Process 5.6 The Responsibilities of Scientists in Communicating in the Public Domain 5.7 Communicating to Policymakers 5.8 The Changing Forum for Debate and the Blogosphere LAND STATION INSTRUMENTAL TEMPERATURE DATA 6.1 Background 6.2 The Allegations 6.3 The Approach Adopted by the Review Team 6.4 The Results of the Analysis 6.5 Checking Specific Details in the CRUTEM Analysis 6.5.1 Identification of Data Sources 6.5.2 The Availability of Computer Codes 6.6 Use of Local temperature Data from China 6.7 Conclusions and Recommendations 8 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 14 14 14 14 18 18 19 22 22 22 26 26 27 32 36 36 36 37 38 39 40 41 41 44 44 44 45 46 49 49 49 51 53

Chapter 2

Chapter 3

Chapter 4

Chapter 5

Chapter 6

2

3

Chapter 7

TEMPERATURE RECONSTRUCTIONS FROM TREE RING ANALYSIS 7.1 Background 7.2 The Allegations 7.3 Findings 7.3.1 IPPC Reports 7.3.2 Divergence 7.3.3 Withholding Data 7.3.4 Mishandling Data 7.4 Conclusions and Recommendations PEER REVIEW AND INFLUENCING EDITORIAL POLICY OF SCIENTIFIC JOURNALS 8.1 Background: Peer Review, Testing and Verification 8.2 The Allegations 8.3 The Soon and Baliunas Affair & Climate Research 8.4 The Conflict with Dr Boehmer-Christiansen 8.5 Peer Review and Professor Briffas Editorship of Holocene 8.6 Conclusions COMMUNICATING INTO THE PUBLIC DOMAIN THROUGH THE IPCC 9.1 Background 9.2 The Allegations 9.3 The CRUTEM Temperature Series 9.3.1 The Scientific Challenge 9.3.2 The Allegations 9.3.3 Evidence in Support of the Allegations 9.3.4 Jones Response 9.3.5 Evidence from IPCC Review Editor for Chapter 3 (Professor Sir Brian Hoskins) 9.3.6 Findings 9.4 The Tree Ring Proxy Temperature Series 9.4.1 The Scientific Challenge 9.4.2 The Allegations 9.4.3 Evidence in Support of the Allegations 9.4.4 Responses from Briffa 9.4.5 Evidence from IPCC Review Editor for Chapter 6 (Professor John Mitchell) 9.4.6 Findings 9.5 Conclusions COMPLIANCE WITH FoIA/ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REGULATIONS 10.1 Introduction and Method of Enquiry 10.2 The Allegations 10.3 General Context 10.4 Investigation 10.5 Findings 10.6 Recommendations

54 54 54 56 56 59 60 61 62 64 64 64 64 66 67 68 70 70 70 71 71 71 71 73 74 75 77 77 77 78 80 82 83 84 86 86 86 86 89 91 94

Chapter 8

Chapter 9

Chapter 10

4

5

Chapter 11

GOVERNANCE 11.1 Introduction and Method of Enquiry 11.2 Research Management Systems 11.2.1 Background 11.2.2 Funding Management 11.2.3 Funders Requirements 11.2.4 Good Research Practice 11.2.5 Financial Controls 11.2.6 Risk Management 11.2.7 Findings on Research Management Systems 11.3 Software, Data Management and Data Security 11.3.1 General Context 11.3.2 Issues and the Investigation 11.3.3 Findings on Software, Data Management and Data Security 11.4 Recommendations ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

98 98 98 98 99 99 99 100 100 100 101 101 102 103 103 106

APPENDIX 1: REVIEW TEAM MEMBERS APPENDIX 2: APPROACH AND WORK PLAN APPENDIX 3: ISSUES FOR EXAMINATION APPENDIX 4: INDEX OF MEETINGS, INTERVIEWS, SUBMISSIONS, FOLLOW UP ENQUIRIES AND RESPONSES APPENDIX 5: PEER REVIEW APPENDIX 6: DATA MINING ACCESS TO THE ORIGINAL CRU E-MAIL ARCHIVE APPENDIX 7: LAND STATION TEMPERATURE DATA APPENDIX 8: SOFTWARE AND DATA STANDARDS

108 110 112 120 126 146 150 160

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GLOSSARYAR4 CLA COP COPE CRU CRUTEMX DEFRA DPA E&E EC EIR ENSO ENV FOI FoIA GHCN GISS GISTEMP GWPF HadCRUTX IAC ICCER ICO ICT IDL IEC IPCC IPCM IS ISSC IT JANET JISC LA LIA MBH MM Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2007 Coordinating Lead Author Conference of the Parties Committee on Publication Ethics Climatic Research Unit Land air temperature anomalies on a 5 by 5 grid-box basis, version X UK Government Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Data Protection Act 1998 Energy and Environment European Community Environmental Information Regulations El Nio-Southern Oscillation University of East Anglia School of Environmental Sciences Freedom of Information Freedom of Information Act 2000 Global Historical Climatology Network Goddard Institute for Space Studies Goddard Institute for Space Studies Surface Temperature Analysis Global Warming Policy Foundation Combined land and marine temperature anomalies on a 5 by 5 grid-box basis, version X Inter Academy Council Independent Climate Change E-Mails Review Information Commissioners Office Information Communications Technology Interactive Data Language International Electrotechnical Commission Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Information Policy and Compliance Manager Information Systems Information Systems Strategy Committee Information Technology The United Kingdoms Education and Research Network Joint Information Systems Committee Lead Authors Little Ice Age Mann, Bradley and Hughes McKitrick and Michaels

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M&M MWP NAO NASA NCAR NCDC NMO NOAA PERL PI REE S&B SAP SPM TAR UEA UHI UKRIO UN UNEP WMO WWR

McIntyre and McKitrick Medieval Warm Period North Atlantic Oscillation National Aeronautics and Space Administration National Center for Atmospheric Research National Climatic Data Center National Meteorological Office National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Practical Extraction and Reporting Language Principal Investigator Research, Enterprise and Engagement Soon and Baliunas Scientific Assessment Panel Summary for Policy Makers Third Assessment Report of the IPCC in 2001 University of East Anglia Urban Heat Island United Kingdom Research Integrity Office United Nations United Nations Environment Programme World Meteorological Organization World Weather Records

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CHAPTER 1: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

CHAPTER 1: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY1. The main findings of the Independent Climate Change E-mails Review (the Review) are set out in Section 1.3 below, and the main recommendations in Section 1.4. We comment in Section 1.5 on some of the more general issues raised by the Review that we think are important about the context in which scientists operate and in which science contributes to public policy.

1.1 Introduction2. In November 2009, approximately 1000 e-mails from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia (UEA) were made public without authorisation. 3. CRU is a small research unit which over the last 30 years has played an important role in the development of climate science, in particular in their work on developing global temperature trends. 4. The e-mails fuelled challenges to the work of CRU, to the reliability of climate science generally, and to the conclusions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). All this happened shortly before the Copenhagen Summit, and was extensively referred to there. 5. In response, the UEA commissioned two inquiries. The first led by Lord Oxburgh, into the science being undertaken at CRU, has already reported. This document is the report of the second inquiry The Independent Climate Change E-mails Review which examines the conduct of the scientists involved and makes recommendations to the University of East Anglia. Our inquiry addresses a number of important allegations that were made following the e-mail release. 6. The allegations relate to aspects of the behaviour of the CRU scientists, such as their handling and release of data, their approach to peer review, and their role in the public presentation of results. 7. The allegations also include the assertion that actions were taken to promote a particular view of climate change by improperly influencing the process of advising policy makers. Therefore we have sought to understand the significance of the roles played by those involved from CRU and of the influence they had on the relevant outcomes. 8. The Review examines the honesty, rigour and openness with which the CRU scientists have acted. It is important to note that we offer no opinion on the validity of their scientific work. Such an outcome could only come through the normal processes of scientific debate and not from the examination of e-mails or from a series of interviews about conduct.

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CHAPTER 1: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

1.2 The Review Process9. The approach taken by the Review was to identify and investigate the allegations to which the e-mails gave rise. This reflected our reading of the emails and the comments made on them. An online consultation was undertaken to ensure that the Teams initial analysis of the allegations and concerns was sound. The method of investigation is explained in the relevant Chapters and Appendices to the report. The Reviews evidence base is published on the website, which it intends to archive. 10. In addressing the allegations about CRUs impact on climate science, we sought evidence to place these into perspective: On hand