mtn group limited
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MTN Group Limited. Final audited results for the year ended 31 December 2006. Agenda. Strategic & operational overview Phuthuma Nhleko Group President and CEO Financial overview Rob Nisbet Group Finance Director Looking ahead … Phuthuma Nhleko. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
MTN Group LimitedFinal audited results for the year ended
31 December 2006
2
Agenda
Strategic & operational overviewPhuthuma NhlekoGroup President and CEO
Financial overview Rob NisbetGroup Finance Director
Looking ahead…Phuthuma Nhleko
Strategic and operational overviewPhuthuma Nhleko
Group President and CEO
MTN Vision
To be the leader in telecommunications in emerging markets
5
Key considerations for the period…
• Investcom acquisition
– Integration almost complete
– Synergy benefits included in 2007 budgets, including rebranding
– Asset base increased
• Significant interest in emerging markets, operations more competitive
• Increased regulatory intervention
• Margin management key
• Changes in ownership levels
– Increased shareholding in Côte d’Ivoire, Uganda, Botswana and Nigeria
Significantly different Group going forward
6
Operations 1 11 21
Population 41m 274m 501m
1998 - 2005
MTN an emerging market leader…
1993 - 1997 2006
National Player African Player Emerging Market Player
Successfully delivering on our vision
2006Revenue
Subscriber #’s
1998 - 2005
1993 - 1997
7
Group highlightsfor the 12 months ending 31 December 2006
Group subscribers up
73%to 40.1 million
Revenue 49% higher to ZAR 51,6 billionagainst 12 months
to 31 December 2005*
EBITDA up 53% to ZAR 22,4 billion against 12 months
to 31 December 2005*
EBITDA marginincreased to 43.4% from 42.4% against
12 monthsto 31 December 2005*
PAT increased to ZAR 12,1 billion fromZAR 6,7 billion against
9 months to31 December 2005
Dividend of 90 cents per share declared
Adjusted headlineEPS increased by 73% to 584.7 cents
against 9 monthsto 31 December 2005
* Unaudited
8
Subscriber growth...
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Dec-05 Dec-06SEA WECA MENA
23.2
40.1
12%
27%49%
Split of subscribers by region
39%73%
No. of operations: 21 +110%
Population (m): 501 +83%
Subscribers (m): 40.1 +73%
Subscriber growth increasingly diversified
MTN Group
Comparative annual growth
9
Relative ARPU performanceUSD per month
$23
$18
$15
$18
$12
$17
$20 $19 $20 $20 $21
$12
$17 $18$16
$9
$14
$35
$17
$10
$17
South African ARPU: ZAR164 (Dec 05 – ZAR167)
10
-75%
19%
53%57%
34%
30%
54%
43%35%
-55%
35%
52%
0%
34%
53%57%
42%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
MT
N
SE
A
WE
CA
ME
NA
Sou
th A
frica
Nig
eria
Gha
na
Sud
an
Iran
'Dec-06 'Dec-05
Relative EBITDA margins
Group EBITDA margin expansionNew Operations: Iran – 21 October * 12-month comparison
RegionGroup Key operations
11
• Senior executive and board involvement on the ground
• Not politically aligned
• Commitment to local and regional regulatory forums
• Constructive engagement
• Extensive pre-investment research – deep understanding
• Strong corporate responsibility –social investment, governance, tax etc
• Positive contribution through broadbased infrastructure roll-out
Risk management
Political / regulatory regimes
Governance structures
• Comprehensive risk management structures aligned to King II and best practice
• Ultimate board responsibility with dedicated group executive risk officer
Committed and involved
12
Risk management (cont.)
• Expanded regions/ markets limit concentration exposure to any single region
• Co-investment with local partners
• Experienced and committed local management teams limit execution risks
• Detailed market analysis and robust business plan preparation contributes to informed risk decisions
Emerging market risk
FX risk
• Local currency funding maximised to limit revenue / liability mismatch
• Operations hedge foreign currency obligations where possible
• Translation risk not hedged - income statement impact
• Diversification of assets and earnings reduces risk profile
1326% increase in subscribers
South & East Africa (SEA) region
Deeper mobile penetration over last 12 months
Dec 06 Growth %
Countries in region 6 + 0%
Population (m) 98.9m + 2%
Mobile penetration 40% +6% pts
Subscriber numbers (m)
South Africa 12,483 + 22%
Swaziland 268 + 26%
Botswana 600 + 25%
Zambia 187 + 93%
Uganda 1,595 + 63%
Rwanda 384 + 40%
Total SEA 15,517 + 26%
% to Group 39%
14
1164178
24578
128
195
343
1595 384
12483
268
187
600
615 103
174
37
77
8340
South Africa Botswana Swaziland Zambia Uganda Rwanda
SEA region – OverviewBotswana, South Africa, Swaziland, Zambia, Uganda, Rwanda
• No contribution from Investcom, inclusion of Uganda and Rwanda, previously in MENA• Appointment of key roles in progress• South Africa key driver of growth and profitability• Strong performance from Uganda, subscribers up 63%• Zambia negatively affected by slow start to roll-out
Population : 98.9m
(20%Group)
16m Subs
(39% Group)
Revenue ZAR27bn
(52% Group)
EBITDA ZAR9bn
(42% Group)
CAPEX ZAR3bn
(31% Group)
PAT ZAR5bn
(42% Group)
South & East Africa EBITDA margin 35.2%
Revenue EBITDA Subscribers
15
8,001
10,235
6,2704,723 164
169184
203206
Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Dec-05 Dec-06
MTN Subscribers ('000) ARPU - Blended (ZAR)
SEA region South Africa – Financial and operational highlights
Dec 2006 Dec 2005*
Revenue ZAR25bn ZAR20bn
EBITDA margin 34% 34%
Capex/ Revenue 9% 13%
• Market share improvements ~ 36% up 1%
• Highly competitive market
• Expanded distribution channels
• Customer centricity through improved service initiatives
• Impact of regulatory changes still unclear
• Margins still healthy due to effective cost management
• Continued focus on data revenue growth
Launched Jun 1994 Market share 36% Population 47m Market sizing 48m (2011) Penetration 68% Shareholding 100%
Subscribers/ARPUmillion
MTN well positioned for change
12,483
*Unaudited 12-month period
16
SEA region South Africa – Financial and operational highlights (cont.)
487541
596 576
949397104
203 184 169 164
Postpaid Prepaid Blended
• Increased prepaid ARPU’s due to lower denomination vouchers
• Prepaid pricing segmentation
• Lower end packages boost postpaid subscribers but negatively affect ARPU
– MyChoice TopUp: 582k from 281k
– MyCall 100: 806k from 761k
• MOU decline slowing due to larger subscriber base
ARPUZAR per month
155 129Avg. MOU per sub 140 124
ARPU pressure
Mar-04 Mar-05 Dec-05 Dec-06
17
• SMS approx 79% of total data revenue
• 3G roll-out on track
– Expanded to 793 from 431 at June 2006
– Approx 20% subscribers under coverage
– Approx 280k users at December 2006
– Good HSDPA uptake
• Mobile money transfer system showing good over past six month – 203% increase in registered users
• Data tariffs reduced to improve competitive position and stimulate traffic
5,0% 8,2%As % of MTN SA revenue*
5,9% 8.0%
Competitive tariffs
* Includes data revenue from subscriptions from Dec 05
286 403679 779
384502
403
1159
Mar-04 Mar-05 Dec-05 Dec-06
First Half Second Half
670
905
1,938
1 082
SEA region South Africa – Data highlights
Data revenueZAR million
18Constructive engagement
SEA regionSouth Africa – Regulatory changes
• Electronic Communications Act (ECA) Promulgated on 19 July 2006
– Licence conversion process still pending
– Existing rights and obligations “protected” - new terms still unclear
• Interconnect Ongoing dialogue
– COA/CAM submitted to ICASA in March 2007, awaiting approval
– Market definitions as prescribed in ECA now proposed
• Re alignment of ICT BEE charter in process New DTI codes announced in December 2006
• Other– Court rules Cell C CST roll-out irregular – interconnect settlement pending
– MNP operational from 10 Nov 2006 – limited impact, 40k subscribers to end Feb 2007
– RICA, MTN ready but final implementation still outstanding
1980% increase in subscribers
West & Central Africa (WECA) region
Dec 06 Growth %
Countries in region 9 + 125
Population (m) 224m + 25%
Mobile penetration 19% +6% pts
Subscriber numbers (m)
Nigeria 12,281 + 47%
Ghana* 2,585 Acquired
Cameroon 1,783 + 43%
Côte d’Ivoire 1,625 + 50%
Benin* 476 Acquired
Congo B. 280 + 33%
G. Conakry* 276 New
Liberia* 218 Acquired
G. Bissau* 98 Acquired
Total WECA 19,622 + 80%
% to Group + 49%G. Conakry: Launch 18 April * Acquired as part of Investcom LLC acquisition
Footprint opportunities significantly increased
20
289
397271
1922
1725
1704
14900
122150 131
8529
971
562
890
Nigeria Cameroon Ghana Ivory CoastBenin CongoB Other
476
280592
12281
2585
1625
1783
Population : 224m
(45% Group)
20m Subs
(49% Group)
Revenue ZAR21bn
(41% Group)
EBITDA ZAR11bn
(50% Group)
CAPEX ZAR5bn
(52% Group)
PAT ZAR7bn
(61% Group)
WECA region - OverviewNigeria, Ghana, Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire, Benin, Congo B, G. Conakry, Liberia, G.Bissau
• Low regional penetration at 19% offers opportunity for growth• Investcom merger contributing ~ 42% of net movement in subscribers• Increasingly competition and regulatory activities• Strong performance from Cameroon, subscribers up 43%• Integration of Investcom operations well advanced with focus on branding and products
Strong contribution to the Group, region dominated by Nigeria
Revenue EBITDA Subscribers
21
• Market share up from 45% to 46%
• Strong EBITDA margin through cost savings
• Regulator activities:– Expanding GSM license with unified
licence and 3G license (awarded in last week of March 2007 for $150m)
– Award of 5th GSM operator
– New interconnect rates effective from 22 September 2006
• Broadening shareholder base still a priority
• Tax holiday ending 1 April 2007
• Uncertain outcome of 2007 elections
WECA regionNigeria - Financial & Operational Highlights
Dec 2006 Dec 2005*
Revenue ZAR14.9bn ZAR11.4bn
EBITDA margin 57% 53%
Capex/ Revenue 24% 45%
Launched Aug 2001 Market share 46% Population 138.9m Market sizing 45.6m (2011) Penetration 19% Shareholding 82%
8,370
4,392
1,966
1822
40
51
Mar-04 Mar-05 Dec-05 Dec-06
MTN Subscribers ('000) ARPU (USD)
Pre Dec 05, subscribers and ARPU based on 30 day
activity window
Subscribers/ARPU 12,281
Increasingly competitive
*Unaudited 12-month period
22
WECA regionNigeria – New product offering
• Launch of segmented value proposition products on 22 September 2006
– On net calling preference
– Growth from returning inactive MTN subscriber
– Incremental minute of use from both existing and returning inactives
• Brand preference at 54% from 49%
• Customer satisfaction at 80% from 69%
• Churn at 30% from 35% last year
• Pressure on network quality currently being addressed
Quarterly analysis of total MOU and net connections
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Q1-2006 Q2-2006 Q3-2006 Q4-20060
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
MoU ('000) Net connections ('000)
MTN successfully repositioned
23
31%
58%
38%
64%
48%
73%
43%
18%
Geographic coverage Population coverage
Mar-04 Mar-05 Dec-05 Dec-06
WECA regionNigeria – Network infrastructure & enhancements
• Network infrastructure
– 2 518 base stations
– Continuing expansion of transmission backbone (~3600km)
• Acquisition of unified licence & VGC (fixed wireless PTO) aimed at corporate market
• Capacity of ~13.5m subscribers in core network
• Pressure on network: focus shifted to radio expansion to accommodate higher subscriber numbers and expansion into new areas
Geographic and population coverage
Most competitive coverage and backbone
24
WECA regionGhana – Financial & operational highlights
Dec 2006 Dec 2005*
RevenueZAR1.7bn (Jul-Dec)
ZAR3.0bn (12mths)**ZAR2.1bn
EBITDA margin52% (Jul-Dec)
53% (12mths)**58%
Capex/ Revenue 26% (12mths)** 16%
• Market share loss stabilised in early 2007
• Increasing competition
– Market penetration at 22% from 12.76%, fuelled by decrease in entry barriers (handset / SIM)
– Privatisation of 2 licenses
• Aggressive roll-out to improve network quality well underway by December 2006
– Approx 100 BTS’s/month (Sep-Dec)
Launched Nov 96 Market share 52% Population 22.4m Market sizing 9m (2011) Penetration 22% Shareholding 98%
Dec 06: 6 month ARPU figure
Subscribers/ARPU
Successfully integrated
2,585
1,820
955
171819
2004 2005 2006
MTN Subscribers ('000) ARPU (USD)
*
*
* *
**Unaudited 12-month period
* Investcom LLC 12 month disclosure
25New subscribers acquired over period
Middle East & North Africa (MENA)
Footprint opportunities significantly increased with greenfield areas
Dec 06
Countries in region 6 Acquired
Population (m) 178m Acquired
Mobile penetration 16% Acquired
Subscriber numbers (m)
Sudan* 1,066 Acquired
Iran 154 New
Afghanistan 218 New
Syria* 2,237 Acquired
Yemen* 1,161 Acquired
Cyprus* 76 Acquired
Total MENA 4,912 N/A
% to Group 12 %
* Acquired as part of Investcom LLC acquisition New – Launched in 2006
26
580
2009
570
520
77 99 -58
700
99
277
Iran Syria Yemen Sudan Other
294 154
2237
1066
1161
MENA region – OverviewAfghanistan, Cyprus, Iran, Sudan, Syria, Yemen
Population : 178m
(35%Group)
5m Subs
(12% Group)
Revenue ZAR4bn
(7% Group)
EBITDA ZAR1bn
(5% Group)
CAPEX ZAR2bn
(17% Group)
PAT ZAR0.2bn
(2% Group)
Revenue EBITDA Subscribers
Regional consolidation concluded
• Under-penetrated region with high growth potential
• Aggressive roll-out in Sudan, Iran and Afghanistan contributing to low EBITDA
• High revenue share in Syria and Iran
• Strong growth in Syrian subscribers to 2.2m from 1.5m
27
1,080154
8.5
Dec-06 Mar-07
MTN Subscribers ('000) ARPU (USD)
Launched Oct 06 Market share 1% Population 69.5m Market sizing 46.3m (2011) Penetration 20% Shareholding 49%
MENA region Iran – Highlights
Dec 2006
Revenue ZAR 77m
EBITDA margin -75%
Capex/ Revenue 942%
• MTN’s market sizing increased to 46m (2011) from 31m (2015) estimated in 2005
• Pioneer in privatisation
• Low year end subscriber numbers due to• Late launch
• Slow regulatory approval processes
• Limited coverage
• Competitive pressure
• Current daily run rate now > 15 000• Efficient subscriber centric activation
process - registration within 15 minute
• Strong brand awareness within 3 months
• Costs well contained
Subscribers/ARPU
Slow start challenges identified and rectified
28
<1%
16%
<1%
26%
Geographic coverage Population coverage
Dec-06 Mar-07
361
8
588
49
Number of BTS Number of citiesDec-06 Mar-07
MENA regionIran – Infrastructure
• Significant vendor finance secured
• Roll-out behind schedule due to challenges
– Local ownership requirements
– High land costs
– Environmental procedures
– Access to intercity transmission
• Roll-out progressing well• 4 switches deployed with a core capacity in
excess of 1m subscribers
• Risk of sanctions mitigated by:– Diverse suppliers and contractual
commitments
– Outsourcing (network and IT)
– Front end supply
Coverage statistics
Cities & BTS’s roll-out
29
MENA region Iran – License obligations and regulatory
As at Dec05Within
prescribed period
Note
Licence Term – Effective Date
15 years 21 Nov 05
15 years10 Jul 06
Year 1 ends 10
July 2007
Commercial Launch
6-9 mths Oct 06
Within period from
new effective
date
1 year
~ 50% population; 248 towns; 1,600km of
road covered
50% population, 248 towns,
~1,000km of road covered
Road coverage
challenging
• Year 1 roll-out most onerous
• Higher connection fee retained on postpaid
• Competitive pressure reduced on prepaid
• Lower connection fee negatively impacts business targets
– Peak funding of $1.9m in 2009 whereas previously targeted at $1.5m in 2007/8
• Low tariffs not offset by higher usage
• Interconnect terms contained in Irancell licence, agreements to be finalised in 2007
30
Launched [Sep05] Market share 25% Population 36m Market sizing 22m (2011) Penetration 12% Shareholding 85%
1066
269
Dec-05 Dec-06
MTN subscribers ('000) ARPU (USD)
• First full year of operation
• Market share growth to 25%
• Regulatory & logistical challenges
• Despite roll-out challenges– 36% of population covered
– 3G and GPRS launched
– 662 BTS’s and 3 MSC’s
• Introduction of aggressive CDMA competitor
• ARPU dilution limited, low tariffs
• Dinar appreciation of 15% vs USD in 2006, positive contribution to margin
MENA region Sudan
Dec 2006 Dec 2005*
RevenueZAR570m (Jul-Dec)
ZAR887m (12mths)**ZAR130m(12mths)
EBITDA margin17% (Jul-Dec)
19% (12mths)** -55% (12mths)
Capex/ Revenue 70% (12mths)** 256% (12mths)
Subscribers/ARPU
1916
High growth market, 800k net adds for the year
Dec 06: 6 month ARPU figure
**Unaudited 12-month period
* Investcom LLC 12 month disclosure
*
*
*
Financial overviewRob Nisbet
Group Finance Director
32
Financial trends
31.4
20.217.213.711.38.7
9.815.312.6
10.7
2003 2004 2005 Dec-05 Dec-06
Group revenueZAR billion
CAGR 03FY – 06FY
28%
CAGR 03FY – 06FY
38%
Group EBITDAZAR billion
Adjusted HEPS*cents
13.8
8.67.25.64.32.7
3.86.4
4.73.5
2003 2004 2005 Dec-05 Dec-06
278.5218.4170.1123.4
60.9
306.2
82.4
129.7
193 119.8
2003 2004 2005 Dec-05 Dec-06
* Basic headline earnings Dec 2006 – 606.5 cents (December 2005 – 359.8 cents) Adjustment made to eliminate deferred tax asset raised by MTN Nigeria and put option impact
CAGR 03FY – 06FY
42%
33
Key accounting issues
• Investcom– Consolidated from 1 July 2006– Cash-flow hedging of purchase price resulted in gain of ZAR 2.5bn
• Set off against investment• No tax provided on gain (ZAR 680m)
– PPA amortisation – ZAR 587m (an additional ZAR 72m relates to Uganda)• Increased ownership
– Nigeria: 6.9%, ZAR 2,7bn from 75% to 82% (77% to 84% incl. put option impact)– Cote d’Ivoire: 17.34%, ZAR 363m from 51% to 68.34%– Botswana: 7%, ZAR 146m from 44% to 51% (remained as a JV)– Uganda: 45%, ZAR1,577m from 52% to 97% (fully consolidated from 1 July)
• MTNI (Mauritius)– Forex gain (ZAR 452m) in MTNI Mauritius (ZAR functional currency), after transfer to
reserves below– Early adoption of IAS21 – ZAR 242m gain taken to reserves instead of Income statement
(Dec 05 – loss of ZAR 79m – restated numbers)– Deferred tax credit (ZAR 145m) on timing differences
34
326
3
290
-33
South & East AfricaWest & Central AfricaMiddle East & North AfricaHead Office Companies
Earnings per share
cents12 months
ended Dec 2006
9 months ended
Dec 2005% change
Basic headline earnings per share 606,5 359,8 69
Impact of put option 15,3 (1,6)
Reversal of deferred tax credit (37,10) (20,0)
Adjusted headline earnings per share 584,7 338,2 73
HEPS (584,7 cents)• Adjusted headline earnings items:
– Deferred tax credit ZAR 825m (MTN share ZAR 650m)
– Impact of put option (MTN share ZAR 268m) (Finance costs – ZAR 212m, Fair value adj. – ZAR 120m, Forex loss – ZAR 89m, Minority share profits – ZAR 153m)
35
ZAR million12 months
endedDec 2006
9 monthsended
Dec 2005
Revenue 51 595 27 212
EBITDA 22 413 11 231
Depreciation (5 030) (2 497)
Amortisation (1 289) (256)
Profit from operations 16 094 8 478
Net finance costs (1 427) (373)
Share of profits of associates 23 10
Profit before taxation 14 690 8 115
Income tax expense (2 591) (1 411)
Profit after taxation 12 099 6 704
Minority interest (1 489) (838)
Net profit 10 610 5 866
Income statement
Net profit excluding Investcom 11 241
36
Exchange rates Average Closing
Dec2006
Dec2005
% var
Dec2006
Dec2005
% var
Rand per Dollar 7,04 6,47 (9) 7,05 6,32 (12)
Nigerian Naira per Rand 18,70 20,23 8 18,23 20,42 11
Iranian Rials per Rand 1 365,28 1 420,80 4 1 308,73 1 436,49 9
Ghana Cedis per Rand 1 282,55 1 412 9 1 312.99 1 449 9
Sudanese Dinars per Rand 32,54 37.63 14 28,82 36.55 21
Nigerian Naira per Dollar 128,49 131,44 2 128,41 129 0,5
Iranian Rial per Dollar9 168,96 9 192,58 0,3 9 220,00 9 078,62 (2)
Exchange rates analysis
If Dec 2005 rates are applied to Dec 2006 PAT there is an impact of -11%
37
ZAR million
12 months ended
Dec 2006
9 months ended
Dec 2005
Unaudited12 months
ended Dec 2005 ZAR LC
South & East Africa 26 586 16 293 21 065 26
South Africa* 24 578 15 507 20 101 22 22Other operations (Botswana,Uganda,Rwanda,Zambia,Swaziland) 2 008 786 964
West & Central Africa 21 208 10 868 13 533 57
Nigeria 14 900 9 034 11 377 31 19
Ghana 1 704 - -
Other operations (Côte d’Ivoire, Cameroon, Congo Brazzaville, Liberia, Benin, Bissau, Conakry) 4 604 1 834 2 156
Middle East & North Africa 3 756 - -
Iran 77 - -
Sudan 570 - -
Other operations (Cyprus, Syria, Afghanistan, Yemen, MedNet) 3 109 - -
Head Office Companies 45 51 70 (36)
TOTAL 51 595 27 212 34 668 49
Revenue excl. Investcom 45 608 27 212 34 668 32
Revenue analysis
% change
* Including MTN Network Solutions
38
• Strong South Africa interconnect revenue growth offset by higher interconnect cost growth due to “All net” proposition
• Regulatory focus on interconnect rates • New Nigerian interconnect tariffs effective 22nd Sep
reducing mobile to mobile tariffs significantly and increasing mobile to fixed and fixed to fixed. Negative impact offset over last quarter by value proposition
• Equipment sales contribute less due to SA impact being diluted
• Interconnect revenue unchanged from 2005 at 20%
20%
6% 1%
73%
Subscriber spend
Interconnect
Equipment sales
Connection fees
Revenue analysis (% of Revenue)
1,365
808
1,254
1,025
2364
596
118222
349
8052.46%
5.40%
6.40%
2.01%
5.45%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Mar-05 Sep-05 Dec-05* Jun-06 Dec-060.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
4,427
2,456
3,784
2,637
5600
1,852
1,063
1,572
970
1952
8.59%7.97%
10.90%
10.51%10.19%
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Mar-05 Sep-05 Dec-05* Jun-06 Dec-060.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
Dec 2006100% = ZAR 51 595m
Interconnect Revenue
Net Interconnect
Net Interconnect %
* 9 months
Nigeria InterconnectZAR million
South Africa InterconnectZAR million
39
EBITDA analysis
ZAR million
12 months ended
Dec 2006
Unaudited12 months ended
Dec 2005
%change
ZAR
Dec 2006EBITDA
margin %
Dec 2005EBITDA
margin %
South & East Africa 9 346 7 341 27 35,2 34,9
South Africa* 8 340 6 895 21 33,9 34,3
Other operations 1 006 446 126
West & Central Africa 11 355 7 051 61 53,5 52,1
Nigeria 8 529 6 051 41 57,2 53,2
Ghana 890 - - 52,2
Other operations 1 936 1 000 94
Middle East & North Africa 1 117 (3) - 29,7
Iran (58) (3) -
Sudan 99 - - 17,4
Other operations 1 076 - -
Head Office Companies 595 296
TOTAL 22 413 14 685 53 43,4 42,4
EBITDA excl. Investcom 20 100 14 685 37 44,1 42,4
* Including MTN Network Solutions
40
EBITDA trends
11,355
5951,117
9,346
South & East AfrcaWest & Central AfricaMiddle East & North AfricaHead Office Companies
EBITDA (R22 413m)• Strong contribution from WECA
• Nigeria margins up to 57% from 52% on strong cost control initiatives, especially staffing and fuel
• RSA margins lower compared to prior twelve months on higher interconnect costs
• Accretive EBITDA contribution from full consolidation of Uganda
• Impact of lower margins from start – up operations i.e Iran and Sudan
• Dilution impact of revenue share arrangements in Iran and Syria
34 3439
52 52 5256 57
3234 333637 37 38
43.4
41.341.4
41.7
42.9
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Mar-05 Sep-05 Dec-05 Jun-06 06-Dec40
40.5
41
41.5
42
42.5
43
43.5
44
SA EBITDA SA EBITDA (excl. handsets) Nigeria MTN Group
*
* 9 months
41
ZAR million
12 months ended
Dec 2006
9 months ended
Dec 2005 ZAR LC
South & East Africa 5 119 3 021 69
South Africa* 4 797 2 877 67 67
Other operations 322 144
West & Central Africa 6 664 3 210 108
Nigeria** 5 739 2 866 100 73
Ghana 348 -
Other operations 577 344
Middle East & North Africa 182 (15)
Iran (144) (15)
Sudan (3) -
Other operations 329 -
Head Office Companies (691) 61
TOTAL 11 274 6 277 80
Profit after tax excl. Investcom 11 758 6 277 87
Profit after tax(excluding Nigeria deferred tax asset)
% change
* Including Network Solutions** Excluded deferred tax asset: 2006 – R825 million (Dec 2005 – R427 million)
42
0%
25%
50%
75%
Accounting tax rate Cash tax rate
Dec-10Dec-08 Dec-09Dec-07
Tax considerations
Tax – effective rate• Bulk of disallowed expenses relate to
unproductive interest on Investcom acquisition debt
• Prior year adjustment relates predominantly to Cameroon
• Investcom effective tax rate has limited impact at this stage
Looking forward • Pioneer status in Nigeria expires on 31 March
2007– Forecast rate for 2007 previously reported at
47%, now reported 52% is due to the deferred tax effect revised depreciation charge in MTN Nigeria
– Corporate tax rate is 30% plus the impact of a ~2% education levy
• Group effective rate expected to increase based on
– Nigerian tax– Non deductible interest
Nigeria - expected trends in effective tax rates
Illustrative
Currently deferred tax asset reversed for adjusted headline earnings
19.76
17.64
1717.4
15.5
16
16.5
17
17.5
18
18.5
19
19.5
20
Mar-05 Dec-05 Dec-06
MTN Group Investcom
Effective tax rates%
43
Balance sheetAssets
ZAR millionAs at
Dec 2006As at
Dec 2005
Non-current assets 76 282 31 136
Property, plant and equipment 30 647 20 676
Goodwill 27 017 2 650
Intangible assets 13 088 4 057
Investment, loans and other non-current assets 2 925 2 367
Deferred taxation 2 605 1 386
Current assets 20 635 13 676
Bank balances 9 961 7 222
Restricted cash 130 338
Other current assets 10 544 6 116
Total assets 96 917 44 812
44
Balance sheetEquities and liabilities
ZAR millionAs at
Dec 2006As at
Dec 2005Capital and reserves 42 729 23 096
Ordinary shareholders’ interest 38 696 19 716
Minority interest 4 033 3 380
Non-current liabilities 34 203 9 765
Long-term liabilities 28 587 7 505
Deferred taxation 2 778 853
Non-current liabilities 2 838 1 407
Current liabilities 19 985 11 951
Non-interest bearing liabilities 15 593 10 851
Interest bearing liabilities 4 392 1 100
Total equity and liabilities 96 917 44 812
45
Analysis of net debt position
* Including long-term borrowings, short-term borrowings and overdrafts** Including MTN Network Solutions# Includes debt from MTNI Mauritius
As at 31 Dec 2006ZAR million
Net (cash) debt
Interest bearing
liabilities*
Cash and cash equivalents
South & East Africa 4 882 7 326 2 444
South Africa ** 4 715 6 772 2 057
Other operations 167 554 387
West & Central Africa770 4 884 4 114
Nigeria 1 165 3 552 2 387
Ghana (565) 250 815
Other operations 170 1 082 912
Middle East & North Africa 891 2 644 1 753
Iran 1 760 1 879# 119
Sudan 248 348 100
Other operations (1 117) 417 1 534
Head Office Companies 18 208 19 988 1 780
Eliminations (1 863) (1 863) -
TOTAL 22 888 32 979 10 091
46
Interest bearing liabilities splitas at 31 December 2006
19%
6%
75%
Cross surety structureRing-fenced to local operationOther
6 203
8%6%
62%
24%
USD ZAR* Naira Other
• Undrawn facilities of over ZAR 10 billion, mainly at MTN Holdings
• No FX exposure on SA debt
• Repayment of more than US$ 850m of Investcom acquisition debt from subsidiary dividends
• De-leveraging results in Net debt to EBITDA of 1.02
• Funding of underlying operations continued focus for 2007 to ensure
– Local balance sheet efficiency
– Better utilization of cash across the Group
24 897
1 879
70% of USD hedged
47
Cash flow statement
ZAR million12 months
ended Dec 2006
9 months ended
Dec 2005
Net cash generated by operations 22 934 11 369
Net interest paid (143) (116)
Taxation paid (4 086) (1 011)
Dividends paid (1 083) (1 081)
Cash inflows from operating activities 17 622 9 161
Cash outflows from investing activities (38 606) (12 922)
Acquisitions of PP&E (excluding software) ( 9 379) (6 438)
Other investing activities (29 227) (6 484)
(20 984) (3 761)
Cash (out) inflows from financing activities 18 993 5 357
Net movement in cash and cash equivalents (1 991) 1 596
48
Capital expenditures (incl. software)
* Including MTN Network Solutions
ZAR millionCapex approved or
committed at31 Dec 2005
12 monthsended
Dec 2006
Capex approved orcommitted at31 Dec 2006
South & East Africa 4 308 3 120 5 014
South Africa* 3 641 2 391 4 360Other operations 667 729 654
West & Central Africa 6 660 4 998 8 841
Nigeria 5 321 3 674 5 558
Ghana 595 484 1 156Other operations 744 840 2 127
Middle East & North Africa 3 710 1 656 4 675
Iran 2 764 773 2 863
Sudan 413 421 839Other operations 533 462 973
Head Office Companies 4 14TOTAL 14 678 9 778 18 544
49
Capital expenditure analysis
126
4,998
1,636
3,018
South & East Africa
West & Central Africa
Middle East & North Africa
Head Office Companies
• 60% of capex due to Nigeria and RSA invested in network coverage and capacity
• RSA focus on 3G coverage (close to 800 sites rolled out to date)
• Nigeria $100 million investment in fibre network
• Roll – outs in Iran and Sudan accelerating in last quarter
CAPEX (R9 778m)
19
16
26 25
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Mar-05 Dec-05 Jun-06 Dec-06
CAPEX as a % of revenue
Looking forward..Phuthuma Nhleko
51
Looking forward…
• Drive regional synergies
• Take advantage of opportunities within the value chain
– Payment solutions to enable transfer of funds in under-serviced markets;
– Data opportunities
• Improve operational efficiency through our least-cost operator strategy
• Aggressive roll-out and subscriber acquisition strategy for Iran
• Pursue appropriate expansion opportunities to diversify earnings and consolidate position in emerging markets;
• De-leverage core debt and gear up operations
52
Thank you
Questions?
53
Notice
The information contained in this document has not been verified independently. No representation or warranty express or implied is made as to and no reliance should be placed on the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information or opinions contained herein. Opinions and forward looking statements expressed represent those of the Company at the time. Undue reliance should not be placed on such statements and opinions because by nature, they are subjective to known and unknown risk and uncertainties and can be affected by other factors that could cause actual results and Company plans and objectives to differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward looking statements.
Neither the Company nor any of its respective affiliates, advisors or representatives shall have any liability whatsoever (based on negligence or otherwise) for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this presentation or its contents or otherwise arising in connection with this presentation and do not undertake to publicly update or revise any of its opinions or forward looking statements whether to reflect new information or future events or circumstances otherwise.
This presentation does not constitute an offer or invitation to purchase or subscribe for any securities and no part of it shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever.
Annexure I
55
MTN – Data Sheet part 1
Market overview
Population (m) 500.8 98.9 223.8 178.1 47.4 138.9 22.4 36.3 69.5
Mobile penetration 40% 19% 16% 74% 19% 22% 12% 20%
Market position 2 1 1 2 3
No. of operators 61 14 30 17 3 4 4 4 3
Operational Data
Subscribers (000s) 40 051 15 517 19 622 4 912 12 483 12 281 2 585 1 066 154
ARPU (USD) 21 18 15 23 18 17 16 9
Market share 36% 46% 52% 25% 1%
Key Financials (Rm)
Revenue 51 595 26 586 21 208 3 756 24 578 14 900 1 704 570 77
EBITDA 22 413 9 346 11 355 1 117 8 340 8 529 890 99 -58
EBITDA margin 43% 35% 54% 30% 34% 57% 52% 17% -75%
PAT* 12 098 5 119 7 384 182 4 797 6 564 243 -3 -144
Group SEA WECA MENA RSA Nigeria Ghana Sudan Iran
56
MTN – Data Sheet part 2 (SEA)
Shareholding 100% 51% 100% 30% 97% 40%
License Period (years) 15 15 15 10 20 10
Market overview
Population (m) 98.9 47.4 1.8 11.5 1.1 28 9.1
Mobile penetration 40% 74% 60% 9% 24% 9% 4%
Market position 2 1 2 1 1 1
No. of operators 14 3 2 3 1 3 2
Market Size (2011) - million62.9 48.2 1.6 2.6 0.8 8 1.7
Operational Data
Subscribers (000s) 15 517 12 483* 600 187 268 1 595 384
ARPU (USD) 21 23 20 19 20 12 17
Market share 36% 60% 19% 100% 66% 95%
SubTotal RSA Botswana Zambia Swaziland Uganda Rwanda
* 2.1 million postpaid
57
SubTotal Nigeria Ghana Cameroon Côte d’Ivoire Congo B Benin G. Bissau G. Conakry Liberia
MTN – Data Sheet part 3 (WECA)
Shareholding 82% 98% 70% 68% 100% 75% 100% 75%60%
License Period 15 15 15 20 15 10 10 1815
Market overview
Population (m) 223.9 138.9 22.4 17.1 20.2 3.4 7.7 1.5 9.53.2
Mobile penetration 19% 19% 22% 18% 20% 27% 15% 10% 6%14%
Market position 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 11
No. of operators 30 4 4 3 3 2 4 2 44
Market Size (2011) - million 74.4 45.6 9.0 5.8 7.7 1.4 2.0 0.3 1.80.8
Operational Data
Subscribers (000s) 19 622 12 281 2 585 1 783 1 625 280 476 98 276218
ARPU (USD) 18 18 17 15 18 20 21 12 1718
Market share 46% 52% 58% 41% 31% 40% 66% 48% 51%
58
SubTotal Sudan Iran Afghanistan Cyprus Syria Yemen
MTN – Data Sheet part 4 (MENA)
Shareholding 85% 49% 100% 100% 75% 83%
License Period 22 15 14 20 15 15
Market overview
Population (m) 178.0 36.3 69.5 30.9 0.9 18.8 21.6
Mobile penetration 16% 12% 20% 6% 80% 26% 12%
Market position 2 3 3 2 2 1
No. of operators 17 4 3 3 2 2 3
Market Size (2011) - million 79.8 12.5 46.3 5.0 1.0 8.6 6.4
Operational Data
Subscribers (000s) 4 912 1 066 154 218 76 2 237 1 161
ARPU (USD) 15 16 9 14 35 17 10
Market share 25% 1% 12% 10% 46% 44%
59
2225
28
2822
Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Dec-05 Dec-06
MTN Subscribers ('000) ARPU (USD)
15,517
12,281
9,1486,996
5,259
MTN – Regional Growth
4,912
15
Dec- 06
MTN Subscribers ('000) ARPU (USD)
Pre Dec 05, subscribers and ARPU based on 30 day activity window
Pre Dec 06, subscribers exclude Investcom operations
Subscribers / ARPU
1821
37
4546
Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Dec-05 Dec-06
MTN Subscribers ('000) ARPU (USD)
19,622
10,908
5,255
2,5471,468
MENASEA WECA
60
Structure
MTN Group
MTN Holdings
MTN South Africa MTN International
MTN Mauritius
Mednet100%
Zambia100%
Cameroon70%
Syria75%
Liberia60%
Botswana51%
Rwanda40%
Ghana98%
Guinea Bissau100%
Congo-B100%
Uganda97%
Yemen83%
Cyprus100%
MTN Swaziland30%
Investcom LLC
100%
100%
100%
Iran49%
Sudan85%
Afghanistan100%
Côte d’Ivoire68%
Nigeria82%
Guinea Republic75%
Benin75%
100%
Service Providers100%
Network Solutions100%
Network Operations100%
All shareholdings rounded
Annexure II
62
Balance sheetAsset analysis
As at 31 December 2006ZAR Million Total SEA WECA MENA HQ
Companies
Non-current assets 76 282 14 121 23 613 6 954 31 594
Tangible assets 30 647 9 612 17 568 3 444 23
Intangible assets (incl. goodwill) 40 105 1 951 3 542 3 122 31 490
Other non-current assets 5 530 2 558 2 503 388 81
Current assets 20 635 8 807 6 181 3 293 2 354
Bank balances (incl. securitised deposits)
10 091 2 444 4 114 1 753 1 780
Other current assets 10 544 6 363 2 067 1 540 574
Total assets 96 917 22 928 29 794 10 247 33 948
63
Balance sheetEquity and liabilities analysis
As at 31 December 2006ZAR Million Total SEA WECA MENA HQ
Companies
Capital and Reserves 42 729 7 223 18 827 3 782 12 897
Non current liabilities 34 203 7 725 3 837 2 254 20 387
Long-term liabilities 28 587 6 024 3 674 2 231 16 658
Non-current liabilities 2 838 412 2 23 2 401
Deferred taxation 2 778 1 289 161 - 1 328
Current liabilities 19 985 7 980 7 130 4 211 664
Non-interest bearing liabilities 15 593 6 678 5 920 3 798 (803)
Interest bearing liabilities 4 392 1 302 1 210 413 1 467
Total equity and liabilities 96 917 22 928 29 794 10 247 33 948
64
ZAR million
12 months ended
Dec 2006
9 months ended
Dec 2005 % change
South & East Africa 17 240 10 914 58South Africa* 16 238 10 485 55
Other operations 1 002 429
West & Central Africa 9 853 5 277 87Nigeria 6 371 4 316 48
Ghana 814 -
Other operations 2 668 961
Middle East & North Africa 2 639 -
Iran 135 -
Sudan 471 -
Other Operations 2 033 -
Head Office Companies (550) (210)
TOTAL 29 182 15 981 83
Operating expenditure analysis
* Including Network Solutions
65
EBITDA analysis
ZAR million
12 months ended
Dec 2006
9 months ended
Dec 2005
%change
ZAR
Dec 2006EBITDA
margin %
Dec 2005EBITDA
margin %
South & East Africa 9 346 5 367 74 35,2 32,9
South Africa* 8 340 5 009 67 33,9 32,3
Other operations 1 006 358 181
West & Central Africa 11 355 5 599 103 53,5 51,5
Nigeria 8 529 4 727 80 57,2 52,3Ghana 890 - - 52,2Other operations 1 936 872 122
Middle East & North Africa 1 117 (6) - 29,7
Iran (58) (6) (867)Sudan 99 - - 17,4
Other operations 1 076 - -
Head Office Companies 595 271 120
TOTAL 22 413 11 231 100 43,4 41,3
EBITDA excl. Investcom 20 100 11 231 79 44,1 41,3
* Including MTN Network Solutions
66
ZAR million
12 months ended
Dec 2006
9 months ended
Dec 2005 % change
South & East Africa 1 334 842 58South Africa* 1 065 744 43
Other operations 269 98
West & Central Africa 3 282 1 652 99Nigeria 2 699 1 455 85
Ghana 124 -
Other operations 459 197
Middle East & North Africa 414 -
Iran 15 -
Sudan 52 -
Other Operations 347 -
Head Office Companies - 3
TOTAL 5 030 2 497 101
Depreciation analysis
* Including MTN Network Solutions
67
ZAR million
12 months ended
Dec 2006
9 months ended
Dec 2005 % change
South & East Africa 203 50 306South Africa* 86 39 121
Other operations 117 11
West & Central Africa 801 206 289Nigeria 191 116 65
Ghana 317 -
Other operations 293 90
Middle East & North Africa 284 -
Iran 19 -
Sudan 65 -
Other Operations 200 -
Head Office Companies 1 -
TOTAL 1 289 256 404
Amortisation analysis
* Including MTN Network Solutions
68
ZAR millionNet
FinanceCost
FinanceIncome
FinanceCosts
ForexLosses
Forex Gains
South & East Africa 571 (238) 640 173 (4)
South Africa* 494 (223) 598 122 (3)
Other operations 77 (15) 42 51 (1)
West & Central Africa 49 (591) 557 115 (32)
Nigeria (92) (558) 472 11 (17)
Ghana (15) (27) 10 9 (7)
Other operations 156 (6) 75 95 (8)
Middle East & North Africa (90) (74) 31 42 (89)
Iran (43) (44) 1 - -
Sudan (33) - 4 26 (63)
Other Operations (14) (30) 26 16 (26)
Head Office Companies 897 (295) 1 379 370 (557)
TOTAL 1 427 (1 198) 2 607 700 (682)
Finance cost analysis
* Including Network Solutions
Thank You