RA Frank Aletter, LL.M.Juni 2013

Maputo Mozambique

Durban, 27.9.2016

OVERVIEW: MOZAMBIQUE

BOLETIM MOÇAMBIQUEQuarta, 31 de Agosto

25 notícias • 13041 caracteres 

   MOÇAMBIQUE

Crise é o momento certo para empresas portuguesas apostarem em Moçambique – AICEP

President of AICEP, Miguel Frasquilho:

High risk – high return ???

OverviewCapital: MaputoOfficial Language: Portuguese10 Provinces, Area: 744.9 mil km2Currency: Metical (MZN)Governance: Unitary RepubliqueReligion: Mostly Christian (Catholics 24%), (Muslims18%)Ruling Party: FRELIMO, President Filipe Nyussi

International Relations-SADC – South African Development Community-CPLP – Community of Portuguese Language Countries-Commonwealth of Nations-EPA – Economic Partnership Agreements with EU-AGOA – African Growth and Opportunity Act. with USA

Item in Item in Item in

Population Mill. 27 HDI rank of 189 rank 180 GDP p.c.

(PPP) US$Ca. 700

Population growth

% p.a.

2.5Gross school enrolment

% 54.8 Gini Index 0-1 0.45

Life expectancy

years

50 Aid per capita

USD

Ca. 75 Credit Ratings category CCC

Urban population % 31

Poverty

(less than 2 USD a day)

% 81.8

Corruption perception Index of 173 countries

rank 119

HDI 0-1 0.393

Doing Business rank of 189

rank 134

Socio-Economic Indicators

Macro DataGrowth in % Current growth in % p.a.

2015 ca. 5,5%2016 ca. 4%

2017 picking up again…….???

Trade balance negative (2-4 Bio. USD)

Inflation 2-5%, now more then 18% p.a.

Exchange RateStable for long period 2016 strong devaluation (40%) 1Rand - 5 MZN

FOREX reservesdown (1,5 Month Imports)

FDIDown after boomApproved 1,2 Mrd. USD in 2015,Recovery expected 2017

Government debt more then 90% BNP.

Quellen: EIU 2016

EconomyCurrent: Services: 44% of GDPAgriculture: 32% of GDPIndustry: 24% of GDP

Few Megaprojects

Fragmented economy

Growing informal sector

Few advanced national SMEs

Future:Strategy (SDI) based in clusters in 3 main regions: Beira, Maputo and Nacala Development Corridors, Network effects

Strategies:Many, lack of implementation

Scenario: GDP p.C 4,000 USD by 2030

Approved Investments by sectors 2010-2015

Relation to Germany

Important Exports to Germany:

Aluminium, Sugar, Cashew, Tabacco

Important Exports to Mozambique:

Machines, cars, Chemicals, Wheat

Parts of Exports to MOZ via South Africa

Nr. 4 within SADC, after South Africa, Angola and Namibia

Bilateral Volume 2015: Ca. 270 Mio. EUR. 2015 plus 25%

Imports ca. 150 Mio. EUR Exports ca. 120 Mio. EUR

German Aid: 50 Mil. Euro p/a.

Close links to GDR during 1970er and 80er : 22.000 Mozambicans in Germany, today ca. 9.000

Quelle: Destatis 2016

German presence in Mozambique Bilateral Investment Guarantee (2007) No DTT FDI in Mosambik: 16 Mio. Euro (2013) GTAI Hermes-Euler

Main Projects

AMG Mining (Graphit Kropfmühl):

Helm AG ( ProMann and Koch Engineering): MoPetCo-Project – Methanol and fertilizer gas -based

Slaughterhouse (Renner)• Oekohouse

+++

other Projects Gauff Engineering: Maputo und

Katembe Bridge with China Siemens Logistics Modell Lodge Oeko Integrated Farm Project

Manhica

Relation to South Africa

Important Exports to MOZ:

Services, Machinery, Vehicles, Mineral fuels, electronic equipment, iron, steel, Plastics, beverages, paper, dairy products, furniture, food,……

Important Exports to South Africa:

Mineral fuels, beverages, fruit, nuts, residues, aluminium,…..

Nr. 1 within SADC , worldwide Nr. 2 for Export, Nr. 1 for ImportBilateral Volume 2015:

Ca. 3 Bio. USD Imports ca. 0,6 Bio. USD Exports ca. 2,4 Bio. USD

Double Tax T. yes, Bilateral trade agreement, SADC rules

Comtrade 2016

SWOT AnalysisStrengths- High GDP growth- Abundant natural beauty- Good road connection with Gauteng- High FDI- Growing middle class- Logistical hub for the region

Weaknesses- Lack of skilled labour- Portuguese as business language - Weak protection & enforcement of

contractual rights- Low level of social & economic

development- Infrastructure deficits

Opportunities - Significant coal reserves (20. Bil.

Tonnes)- Vast natural gas deposit- Biofuel potential - Ideal for renewable energies

(climate, land, water, labour)- Growing tourism industry- Huge agriculture potential- Growing middle class

Threats - Potential political instabilities- Nationalistic-populistic tendencies- Chronical trade deficit - Still aid dependent- External debt levels are rising- Challenging business environment - corruption alarming

source: gtai/Dr Kaufmann

Potentials Natural Ressources

gas, coal und ca. 600, Tantal, Titan, Zirkon, Graphite, Gold, Diamonds, Rubies.

Agriculture and Fishery36 Millionen Hectar Land: 40% used by small holders and 3% by comercial farming, cash crops like Tabacco, Sugar, Cotton, Tea, Cashew, Banana, Seafood etc.

TourismMore 2.800 km coast

line, Quirimba, Bazaruto Islands, Lake Niassa, Nationalparks ...

Energy RessourcesHydro, Wind, Solar, Gas, coal, Bio

……………..oil.

Priorities

Strategic value chains

Energy

Oil and Gas

Conclusion:

-- yes, many opportunities

-- yes, it is high risk - high return country

-- you need time and reserves

-- you should work with an active, reliable national partner, knowing the environment as business culture is still very different from RSA

-- Portuguese is an advantage

Thank you very much!

ContactOffice Maputo

Address:Rua António Simbine, (ex- Antonio Bocarro) nº 211

Sommerschield, Maputo

Moçambique

Tel: +258(0)21- 493260

Fax: +258(0)21-493258

Email: maputo@germanchamber.co.za

Web:www.germanchamber.co.za