moscow futureprogramming2013

Ed Yourdon email edyourdoncom

Website wwwyourdoncomBlog wwwyourdonreportcom

Slideshare Twitter LinkedIn Facebook Flickr ldquoyourdonrdquo

Moscow mdash September 2013

The Future of Programming and

Programmers

Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL) 2

AgendaIntroductionThe reaction I got from my motherThe reaction you probably got from your motherThe reaction you can expect in the futureWhatrsquos likely to changeWhat should you doConclusions


IntroductionDuring a long career in IT I have seen many different changes in the computer field


What my mother said when I got my first software job

My son works in softwear My son works

in hardwareMy son works in underwear

Basic reaction utter confusion


What your mother said when you got your first programming job

My son is a genius

My son started his own company

My son is a great success

Basic reaction respect


What you will say when your sondaughter gets hisher first programming job

My sons will win the Nobel

prizeMy sons will rule the world

Basic reaction pride mixed with awe


Additional itemsTiming is everything you can be either too early or too late with a brilliant inventionExample Applersquos NewtonExample Orson Scott Cardrsquos ldquoPastwatch the redemption of Christopher Columbusrdquoreminder hersquos the author of ldquoEnderrsquos GamerdquoSee also httptrailersapplecomtrailerssummitendersgame and httpenwikipediaorgwikiEnders_Game_(film)We donrsquot always remember the past accurately survey of what US college freshmen believe


What US 2012 university students believe

1 They know about Russia but they have never heard of the Soviet Union2 They believe there has always been only one Germany3 They have never seen an airplane ticket4 If they miss the important news on ldquoThe Daily Showrdquo then can always get it on YouTube5 Bill Clinton is a ldquosenior statesmanrdquo who does nonprofit humanitarian work mdash they know almost nothing about the fact that he was

President of the United States6 Maintaining relations between the US and the rest of the world has been a womans job in the State Department7 They cannot imagine people actually carrying luggage through airports rather than rolling it on wheels8 They never listen to music on the car radio and really have no use for radio at all9 Their parents have never bought them a new set of paper encyclopedias like Encyclopedia Britannica10 Women have always piloted war planes and space shuttles11 They are puzzled by the icons with images of floppy discs for save a telephone for phone and a snail-mail envelope for mail on

their tablets and smartphone screens12 There have always been blue MampMs but no tan ones13 Slavery has always been unconstitutional in Mississippi14 Before they buy an assigned textbook at college they will check to see whether its available for rent or purchase as an e-book This is

how it has always been done15 There has always been a Santa Clause16 History has always had its own television channel17 The Twilight Zone involves vampires not Rod Serling18 They watch television everywhere but on a television (and television has always been in color)


So what will the future bePart 1 The future from a technical perspective

Part 2 The future from a social perspective


ldquoCramming more components onto integrated circuitsrdquo Electronics Apr 19 1965



A current example the iPhone

2013 2007

Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

10 improvement is ldquoincrementalrdquo

But 10-fold improvement is a ldquoqualitativerdquo change mdash or a ldquothis changes everythingrdquo moment

13


2010 model car$30000cruising speed 50 mphmileage 30 mpg

14




0

375

75

1125

150

0 15 30 45 60 75 90 105

128

64

32

168

421


Moore originally predicted that his ldquolawrdquo might last another ten years mdash ie until 1975

But vintage-2005 paper (ldquoNew Life for Moorersquos Lawrdquo) suggested it could go on for another ten years mdash ie until 2015

Intel predicted in 2008 that it could continue until 2029 (ldquo Moorersquos Law lsquoWe See No End in Sightrsquo says Intelrsquos Pat Gelsingerrdquo) And this is not just abstract theory

See May 24 2010 BBC News report ldquoSeven atom transistor sets the pace for future PCsrdquo mdash ie chips 100 times smaller than current processors

16


Remember this applies to several ldquodimensionsrdquo of computing

CPU speedcostsize (footprint)storage capacitynetwork capacity

17


What if your computer was 100 times faster than it is today

18


Wirthrsquos Law

19

ldquoSoftware is getting slower more rapidly than hardware is getting fasterrdquo


A current example

20

See Sep 12 2013 New York Times article ldquoIn a Breathtaking First NASArsquos Voyager 1 Exits the Solar Systemrdquo

Onboard vintage-1977 computer has 1240000 of the memory of the low-end iPhone

ldquoThese younger engineers can write a lot of sloppy code and it doesnrsquot matter mdash but here with very limited capacity you have to be extremely precise and have a real strategyrdquo said Suzanne R Dodd Voyager project manager

The person they chose Lawrence J Zottarelli 77 a retired NASA engineer


Consumer-based products rarely CPU-bound

Business applications sometimes are CPU-bound

But ldquoincrementalrdquo improvements would probably be enough for todayrsquos apps

But what about new business models to take advantage of 10x or 100x CPU improvements

21


$999 $099 $001

Different business models


Compute-bound problemsWeather forecasting hurricane forecastingBiomedical researchComputational geneticsArtificial intelligenceNuclear weapons researchRadio telescope analysis eg SETIhomeSee ldquoResearchers race to produce 3D models of BP oil spillrdquo with 1 million compute-hours of time on a super-computer in TexasGood predictor what are the nationrsquos supercomputer research labs working on See this InfoWebLinks site

23


Cheaper ComputersTodayrsquos $1000 computer becomes a $100 computer in five years and $10 in a decadeAssumes we can ignore the phenomenon of monopolies and oligopoliesAssumes we can ignore marketing tactic of maintaining constant price but enticing customers with more features amp functions etc

24


Consequences ofCheaper Computers

Ubiquitous computingDisposable computersMultiple computer-driven gadgetsShift in powercontrol as scarce items become commodities

25


Ubiquitous ComputingEventually ldquoeveryonerdquo has a computerGartner says 1 billion PCrsquos in 2008 2 billion in 2014Forrester says 1 billion PCrsquos in 2009 2 billion in 2015

26


Ubiquitouspervasive computingEveryware the dawning age of ubiquitous computing

OLPC The $100 (actually $188) laptopOLPC site

ldquoBuy a Laptop for a Child Get Another Laptop Freerdquo

David Poguersquos review of OLPC

Colombia recently ordered 65000 OLPC machines for distribution to children

Next (Jan 2011) the $100 tablet initially based on Android See May 27th Washington Post article ldquoOne Laptop Per Childrsquos Next Move the $100 tabletrdquo

IEEE special issue on pervasive computing

Proceedings of 6th Conference on Pervasive Computing

27


A more likely ubiquitous device

In Russia there are 18 times as many active cell phones as there are people

If you offered your teenage child a new car or a 6th generation iPhone which would heshe pick

See ldquoNumber of Mobile Phones to Exceed World Population by 2014rdquo28

Year How many1980 112 million2002 1 billion2006 24 billion2007 3 billion2009 41 billion2014 exceeds world

population


Ultimate cost reductionFREE

Lots of examples already Wikipedia open-source Web 20Mobile phones tooBusiness model 1 free razors charge for razor bladesBusiness model 2 advertising

29


One last point about costFreecheap computing enables use in poordeveloping nationsBut their usage patterns are very different than oursMore emphasis on health basic economicsLess emphasis on gamesmdashmaybeGreat source of info PopTech

30




31


Disposable ComputersIf computer costs a penny you can afford to throw it awayAlready a familiar concept mdash eg disposable cameras

32

Related example I now take 1000 photos and delete 99 of them


Disposable ComputersOne potential use embed smart chips in packaging for items

33


Disposable ComputersOther possibilities ldquosmartrdquo devices which have a short-term ldquolife-spanrdquo before self-destructingAmusements toys entertainment

34


Multiple Computers

35


Multiple Computers

36


Multiple Computers

37


Multiple Computers

38


Shift in PowerControlPhotocopiers were once scarce

Long-distance phone ldquoresourcerdquo was once scarce

Computer power was once scarce

Scarce resources become an object of power and control

39


Smaller computersMainframe-gtmini-gtlaptop-gtsmartphoneWhatrsquos nextExample iPhone5 is 25 thinner than iPhone4Ray Kurzweil in 2033 ldquoblood cell-size devices that can go inside our bodies and keep us healthy expand our intelligencerdquo

40


Likely applicationsBionic devicesChips in our glasses clothes etc (See Aug 19 2013 article ldquoGoogle pushes Glass release date back to 2014rdquo)ldquoSeriousrdquo applications like health will be importantBut fashionamusement is likely to be equally important

41


Another consequence UIMulti-touchswipe UI mdash and sharedgroup appsBye-bye keyboardsUIrsquos that take advantage of location-based servicesVoice-recognition (the next generation of Siri)Sensing other ldquobodyrdquo indicators (see ldquoDiagnostic Contactsrdquo in June 2010 IEEE Spectrum note also new motion-sensor devices in iPhone5s)Computers that ldquoanticipaterdquo our needs and ask for simple confirmation or choices see July 30 2013 article ldquoDaily Report Apps That Anticipate Your NeedsrdquoBut scientists worry that new UIrsquos may be ldquorewiring the brainrdquo mdash see Jun 6 2010 New York Times article ldquoHooked on Gadgets and Paying a Mental Pricerdquo

42


A scary vision of the futurePreyself-sustaining self-replicating nanoparticles2002 science-fiction novel by Michael Crichton

43


Another dimension storageTodayrsquos PC 5-10 terabytes of storageHence approx 100 terabytes in 2018Approx 1000 terabytes in 2023What on earth would we do with so much additional storageAn observation from the past 25 years the big change was the ability (and then the need) to store photovideo images

44


Future scenario 1Much more image data mdash more security cameras more satellites etcImage data generated more frequently mdash eg 10 framessec -gt 100 framessecMuch higher-resolution image dataHow long will this go on

45


Future scenario 2What other high-volumelarge-storage phenomena might we want to record and manipulate

One possibility biometric data

Heart-beat breathing muscles nerves etc

Another obvious possibility the ldquoInternet of thingsrdquo

46


Future scenario 3more emphasis on 3

critical thingsData miningData analysisData visualization (eg work of Edward Tufte research from Digg Labs)

47


From Tuftersquos ldquoBeautiful Evidencerdquo

48


Another dimensionfaster networks

A reminder of history 100 300 1200 2400 9600 288 56K broadbandButterrsquos Law amount of data coming out of an optical fiber is doubling every nine monthsNielsenrsquos Law bandwidth available to users is increasing 50year doubling every 21 monthsSee Jun 2 2010 ldquoCisco sees online traffic quadrupling by 2014rdquo with primary driver of growth coming from video but infrastructure may be a limiting factor

49


So whatMore of the same downloading movies instantly real-time video streamingVast increase in communications between location-aware always-on RFID-equipped devicesNot such stationary devices but moving devicesNot just big devices but all the way down to paperclipsNot just devices that listen to you (all the time) but which also talk to you and which sense your biometric data (heartbeat pulse etc)

50


But what if technology improvement only came from

softwareWersquove been writing lousy software for 50 years mdash so why expect it to get any betterWersquove been doing a lousy job of project management for 50 years mdash why better nowOptimistrsquos response software has gotten better but we keep trying to solve larger

51


The ldquobrute forcerdquo perspectiveWersquore barely using a tiny fraction of available hardware that we already haveWe could spend another 10 years making sure that our software makes effective use of todayrsquos hardwareWe could share todayrsquos ldquodedicatedrdquo hardware devices (virtualization) optimize the code etc etc

52


Another perspectiveIn late 90s Palm Computing had a ldquocottage industryrdquo of about 40000 developers who created some 10000 Palm appsAbout a year after iPhone intro in 2007 we had 100000 appsThen it was 150000 apps now gt750000 approaching 1 millionCould this be another form of Moorersquos LawCould we have 10 million apps in 5 years and 100 million apps in 10 years

53


Key PointIf we did have 100 million mobile-device apps they would not all be ldquokiller appsrdquoSo this may turn out to be another example of the ldquolong tailrdquo phenomenonOther examples Amazon iTunes

54


But who would develop100 million apps

We might have enough ldquoprofessionalrdquo developers to create 10 million apps but not 100 millionBut remember what was the biggest killer app of the 1970s spreadsheetsSo maybe the future involves creating an Excel-like tool so users can build their own appsMashups Widgets Templates Who knows

55


A problem with this metaphor

Spreadsheets are used to accomplish ldquoseriousrdquo tasksFor the benefit of the person who creates the spreadsheet (or hisher boss etc)But most mobile-device apps are games entertainment ldquofunrdquoAnd theyrsquore created with the hope of enticing other people to use them

56


What kind of apps do people use on their mobile devices

57

See ldquoThe State of

Mobile Appsrdquo NielsenWire June 1 2010 mdash survey of 4200 people

who downloaded an app in the last 30 days


What else might be the next ldquokiller apprdquo

Caveat I did not anticipate that Google would be the killer app of the past decade and I did not anticipate the impact of Netscape Navigator even though I had been ldquoon-linerdquo for yearsCollaborative appsVirtual-world appsLocation-aware appsAssistantagent apps

58


The future mdash from a social perspective

Clarkersquos LawsExamples of inaccurate predictionsFubinirsquos LawPeople least likely to anticipate how new technology will be applied inventors of the new technology

59


Clarkersquos three lawsWhen a distinguished but elderly scientist says that something is possible he is almost certainly right When he states that something is impossible he is probably wrongThe only way of discovering the limits of the possible is to venture a little way past them into the impossibleAny sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magicfrom Arthur C Clarkersquos ldquoProfiles of the Futurerdquo 2000 paperback edition (originally published in 1962 and revised in 1973)

60


Examples ofinaccurate predictions

In 1895 British Postmaster General Arnold Morley said ldquoGas and water are necessities for every inhabitant of the Country Telephones are not and never will be It is no use trying to persuade ourselves that the use of the telephone could be enjoyed by the large masses of people in their daily liferdquo (see ldquoPublic Ownership and the Telephone in Great Britainrdquo Chapter VIII p 117)In 1903 soon after the first Wright Brothers flight Rudyard Kipling predicted that airpseeds would reach only 300 mph by the year 2000In 1927 JBS Haldane predicted that the first landing on Mars would not take place for 10 million yearsIn 1943 IBM Chairman Thomas Watson may have said ldquoI think there is a world market for maybe five computersrdquo (see this Wikipedia article for discussion of alleged comment)In 1945 FDRrsquos naval aide Admiral William Leahy said about the atomic bomb ldquoThat is the biggest fool thing we have ever done the bomb will never go off and I speak as an expert in explosivesrdquoIn 1949 ldquoPopular Mechanicsrdquo forecasting the relentless march of science wrote ldquoComputers in the future may weigh no more than 15 tonsrdquoIn 1977 DEC founderCEO Ken Olsen remarked at a World Future Society conference that ldquoThere is no reason why anyone would want a computer in their homerdquoIn 1981 an obscure computer geek named Bill Gates allegedly said ldquo640K bytes ought to be enough for anybodyrdquo (But see this article for Gatesrsquo denial that he ever said such a thing)

61


Resistance to paradigm shiftsDisruptive technologies often threaten the established scientific governmental religious social cultural normsThis has been true for centuries if not longer see Thomas Kuhnrsquos The Structure of Scientific RevolutionsBut revolutionaries often forget ldquoyou tend to become what you disruptrdquo (Meg Whitman)Typical examples in Web 20 world

resistance to user-generated contentresistance to policy of allowing employees to blog about their workrejection of web-based products as ldquotoo lightweightrdquorejection of Facebook applications by ldquoWall Street Journalrdquo technology journalist Kara Swisher as ldquotrivialrdquo and ldquofrivolousrdquo 62


Technology adoption cycle

63

strategic objectivevalue added

cost displacementavoidancetechnological imperative

Example of laggards 20 of US population has never used e-mail as of May 2008

05

10152025303540

Time of adoption

InnovatorsEarly AdoptersEarly MajorityLate MajorityLaggards


Observations from the TwitterverseAdoption cycle does not describe people per se but the relationship between people and specific changes (or new technologies)The same person can be an ldquoinnovatorrdquo for one kind of change and a ldquolaggardrdquo for some other kind of change

64


Technology Adoption is Speeding UpResistance to technology is often seen as generational mdash but old timers are jumping on the bandwagonSee this 2009 blog ldquoRise of the Silver Surfer - Germany Already Has More Internet Users 60+ Than TeenagersrdquoAlso see Oct 2009 ldquoSpeed of Technology Adoptionrdquo

50 years for electricity to permeate 90 of the market30 years for refrigerators20 years for the cellphone38 years for the radio to reach an audience of 50 million mdash and 2 years for Facebookhow long for iPod iPhone iPad i-whatever

65


Technology Adoption is Speeding Up

66


Generational Trendsthe ldquodigital nativesrdquo

See Margaret Meadrsquos book Culture and Commitment A Study of the Generation Gap for discussion of postfigurative cofigurative and prefigurative cultures91 of mobile phone users keep their phone within one meter 24 hours a day 7 days a week (from Mary Meekerrsquos presentation at 2007 Web 20 Summit conference)See also May 29 2013 article ldquoMary Meekerrsquos Internet Trends Report is Back at D11rdquoAnother statistic ldquo79 of people 18-44 have their smartphones with them 22 hours a dayrdquoA relevant statistic from ldquoWiredrdquo article 30 of young people donrsquot even know their own phone number (and many donrsquot carry watches any more)See ldquoWhat Does Generation Y Wantrdquo and Growing Up Digital the rise of the Net generationldquoGoogle a Girl and the Coming ApocalypserdquoAn Internet Love Song ldquoBRBOMGLOLROFLMFAOrdquo

67


Trends impact on educationSee Michael Weschrsquos video ldquoVision of Students Todayrdquo about the impact of Web 20 on the educational fieldThe new trends Massive Open Online Courses (MOOC)Oct 3 2007 UC Berkeley announces it will publish its university lectures on YouTubeColumbia Center for New Media Teaching amp LearningCrowdsourcing Readings and ResourcesStudent contributions to wikis see ldquoWikipedia Becomes a Class AssignmentrdquoBanning Wikipedia for research papersShould children learn to operate in societyschools without GoogleNicholas Carr ldquoIs Google Making Us Stupidrdquo (ldquoI canrsquot read ldquoWar and Peacerdquo any morerdquo)

68


How do we find the futureTodayrsquos RampD is tomorrowrsquos ldquomainstreamrdquo

Some of it is secret mdash eg iPhone 6Some of it is ignored dismissed rejected or laughed at mdash the inventorrsquos dilemmaExample see ldquoGM Says Almost-Driverless Cars Coming by 2020rdquo mdash but more important see Jul 7 2013 NYT article ldquoDisruptions How Driverless Cars Could Reshape Citiesrdquo which is a generation beyond todayrsquos disruptive business model of ZipCarAnd some is already being used by ldquopre-early adoptersrdquo mdash and the point of the ldquochasmrdquo book is that it might never get beyond the ldquoearly adoptersrdquo

69


ConclusionIntroductionThe reaction I got from my motherThe reaction you probably got from your motherThe reaction you can expect in the futureWhatrsquos likely to changeWhat should you doConclusions


Words to live by in the IT fieldldquoI wake up each morning determined to change the World and also to have one hell of a good timeSometimes that makes planning the day a little difficultrdquo

EB Whitefound in the opening of the preface of

Succeeding with Objectsby Adele Goldberg and Kenneth S Rubin






Programmers


AgendaIntroductionThe reaction I got from my motherThe reaction you probably got from your motherThe reaction you can expect in the futureWhatrsquos likely to changeWhat should you doConclusions










My son is a genius

























2013 2007




13



14




0

375

75

1125

150

0 15 30 45 60 75 90 105

128

64

32

168

421






16




17



18


Wirthrsquos Law

19



A current example

20










21


$999 $099 $001




23



24




25



26










27







population




29



30




31



32




33



34


Multiple Computers

35


Multiple Computers

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Multiple Computers

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Multiple Computers

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45






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47



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49



50




51



52



53



54




55




56



57







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59



60




61






63




05

10152025303540

Time of adoption




64




65



66




67



68




69












Programmers










My son is a genius

























2013 2007




13



14




0

375

75

1125

150

0 15 30 45 60 75 90 105

128

64

32

168

421






16




17



18


Wirthrsquos Law

19



A current example

20










21


$999 $099 $001




23



24




25



26










27







population




29



30




31



32




33



34


Multiple Computers

35


Multiple Computers

36


Multiple Computers

37


Multiple Computers

38






39



40



41



42



43



44



45






46




47



48




49



50




51



52



53



54




55




56



57







58




59



60




61






63




05

10152025303540

Time of adoption




64




65



66




67



68




69












Programmers






















2013 2007




13



14




0

375

75

1125

150

0 15 30 45 60 75 90 105

128

64

32

168

421






16




17



18


Wirthrsquos Law

19



A current example

20










21


$999 $099 $001




23



24




25



26










27







population




29



30




31



32




33



34


Multiple Computers

35


Multiple Computers

36


Multiple Computers

37


Multiple Computers

38






39



40



41



42



43



44



45






46




47



48




49



50




51



52



53



54




55




56



57







58




59



60




61






63




05

10152025303540

Time of adoption




64




65



66




67



68




69












Programmers




13



14




0

375

75

1125

150

0 15 30 45 60 75 90 105

128

64

32

168

421






16




17



18


Wirthrsquos Law

19



A current example

20










21


$999 $099 $001




23



24




25



26










27







population




29



30




31



32




33



34


Multiple Computers

35


Multiple Computers

36


Multiple Computers

37


Multiple Computers

38






39



40



41



42



43



44



45






46




47



48




49



50




51



52



53



54




55




56



57







58




59



60




61






63




05

10152025303540

Time of adoption




64




65



66




67



68




69












Programmers



14




0

375

75

1125

150

0 15 30 45 60 75 90 105

128

64

32

168

421






16




17



18


Wirthrsquos Law

19



A current example

20










21


$999 $099 $001




23



24




25



26










27







population




29



30




31



32




33



34


Multiple Computers

35


Multiple Computers

36


Multiple Computers

37


Multiple Computers

38






39



40



41



42



43



44



45






46




47



48




49



50




51



52



53



54




55




56



57







58




59



60




61






63




05

10152025303540

Time of adoption




64




65



66




67



68




69












Programmers


0

375

75

1125

150

0 15 30 45 60 75 90 105

128

64

32

168

421






16




17



18


Wirthrsquos Law

19



A current example

20










21


$999 $099 $001




23



24




25



26










27







population




29



30




31



32




33



34


Multiple Computers

35


Multiple Computers

36


Multiple Computers

37


Multiple Computers

38






39



40



41



42



43



44



45






46




47



48




49



50




51



52



53



54




55




56



57







58




59



60




61






63




05

10152025303540

Time of adoption




64




65



66




67



68




69












Programmers






16




17



18


Wirthrsquos Law

19



A current example

20










21


$999 $099 $001




23



24




25



26










27







population




29



30




31



32




33



34


Multiple Computers

35


Multiple Computers

36


Multiple Computers

37


Multiple Computers

38






39



40



41



42



43



44



45






46




47



48




49



50




51



52



53



54




55




56



57







58




59



60




61






63




05

10152025303540

Time of adoption




64




65



66




67



68




69












Programmers




17



18


Wirthrsquos Law

19



A current example

20










21


$999 $099 $001




23



24




25



26










27







population




29



30




31



32




33



34


Multiple Computers

35


Multiple Computers

36


Multiple Computers

37


Multiple Computers

38






39



40



41



42



43



44



45






46




47



48




49



50




51



52



53



54




55




56



57







58




59



60




61






63




05

10152025303540

Time of adoption




64




65



66




67



68




69












Programmers



18


Wirthrsquos Law

19



A current example

20










21


$999 $099 $001




23



24




25



26










27







population




29



30




31



32




33



34


Multiple Computers

35


Multiple Computers

36


Multiple Computers

37


Multiple Computers

38






39



40



41



42



43



44



45






46




47



48




49



50




51



52



53



54




55




56



57







58




59



60




61






63




05

10152025303540

Time of adoption




64




65



66




67



68




69












Programmers


Wirthrsquos Law

19



A current example

20










21


$999 $099 $001




23



24




25



26










27







population




29



30




31



32




33



34


Multiple Computers

35


Multiple Computers

36


Multiple Computers

37


Multiple Computers

38






39



40



41



42



43



44



45






46




47



48




49



50




51



52



53



54




55




56



57







58




59



60




61






63




05

10152025303540

Time of adoption




64




65



66




67



68




69












Programmers


A current example

20










21


$999 $099 $001




23



24




25



26










27







population




29



30




31



32




33



34


Multiple Computers

35


Multiple Computers

36


Multiple Computers

37


Multiple Computers

38






39



40



41



42



43



44



45






46




47



48




49



50




51



52



53



54




55




56



57







58




59



60




61






63




05

10152025303540

Time of adoption




64




65



66




67



68




69












Programmers






21


$999 $099 $001




23



24




25



26










27







population




29



30




31



32




33



34


Multiple Computers

35


Multiple Computers

36


Multiple Computers

37


Multiple Computers

38






39



40



41



42



43



44



45






46




47



48




49



50




51



52



53



54




55




56



57







58




59



60




61






63




05

10152025303540

Time of adoption




64




65



66




67



68




69












Programmers


$999 $099 $001




23



24




25



26










27







population




29



30




31



32




33



34


Multiple Computers

35


Multiple Computers

36


Multiple Computers

37


Multiple Computers

38






39



40



41



42



43



44



45






46




47



48




49



50




51



52



53



54




55




56



57







58




59



60




61






63




05

10152025303540

Time of adoption




64




65



66




67



68




69












Programmers



23



24




25



26










27







population




29



30




31



32




33



34


Multiple Computers

35


Multiple Computers

36


Multiple Computers

37


Multiple Computers

38






39



40



41



42



43



44



45






46




47



48




49



50




51



52



53



54




55




56



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58




59



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61






63




05

10152025303540

Time of adoption




64




65



66




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Programmers



24




25



26










27







population




29



30




31



32




33



34


Multiple Computers

35


Multiple Computers

36


Multiple Computers

37


Multiple Computers

38






39



40



41



42



43



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46




47



48




49



50




51



52



53



54




55




56



57







58




59



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63




05

10152025303540

Time of adoption




64




65



66




67



68




69












Programmers




25



26










27







population




29



30




31



32




33



34


Multiple Computers

35


Multiple Computers

36


Multiple Computers

37


Multiple Computers

38






39



40



41



42



43



44



45






46




47



48




49



50




51



52



53



54




55




56



57







58




59



60




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63




05

10152025303540

Time of adoption




64




65



66




67



68




69












Programmers



26










27







population




29



30




31



32




33



34


Multiple Computers

35


Multiple Computers

36


Multiple Computers

37


Multiple Computers

38






39



40



41



42



43



44



45






46




47



48




49



50




51



52



53



54




55




56



57







58




59



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05

10152025303540

Time of adoption




64




65



66




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68




69












Programmers










27







population




29



30




31



32




33



34


Multiple Computers

35


Multiple Computers

36


Multiple Computers

37


Multiple Computers

38






39



40



41



42



43



44



45






46




47



48




49



50




51



52



53



54




55




56



57







58




59



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63




05

10152025303540

Time of adoption




64




65



66




67



68




69












Programmers







population




29



30




31



32




33



34


Multiple Computers

35


Multiple Computers

36


Multiple Computers

37


Multiple Computers

38






39



40



41



42



43



44



45






46




47



48




49



50




51



52



53



54




55




56



57







58




59



60




61






63




05

10152025303540

Time of adoption




64




65



66




67



68




69












Programmers




29



30




31



32




33



34


Multiple Computers

35


Multiple Computers

36


Multiple Computers

37


Multiple Computers

38






39



40



41



42



43



44



45






46




47



48




49



50




51



52



53



54




55




56



57







58




59



60




61






63




05

10152025303540

Time of adoption




64




65



66




67



68




69












Programmers



30




31



32




33



34


Multiple Computers

35


Multiple Computers

36


Multiple Computers

37


Multiple Computers

38






39



40



41



42



43



44



45






46




47



48




49



50




51



52



53



54




55




56



57







58




59



60




61






63




05

10152025303540

Time of adoption




64




65



66




67



68




69












Programmers




31



32




33



34


Multiple Computers

35


Multiple Computers

36


Multiple Computers

37


Multiple Computers

38






39



40



41



42



43



44



45






46




47



48




49



50




51



52



53



54




55




56



57







58




59



60




61






63




05

10152025303540

Time of adoption




64




65



66




67



68




69












Programmers



32




33



34


Multiple Computers

35


Multiple Computers

36


Multiple Computers

37


Multiple Computers

38






39



40



41



42



43



44



45






46




47



48




49



50




51



52



53



54




55




56



57







58




59



60




61






63




05

10152025303540

Time of adoption




64




65



66




67



68




69












Programmers



33



34


Multiple Computers

35


Multiple Computers

36


Multiple Computers

37


Multiple Computers

38






39



40



41



42



43



44



45






46




47



48




49



50




51



52



53



54




55




56



57







58




59



60




61






63




05

10152025303540

Time of adoption




64




65



66




67



68




69












Programmers



34


Multiple Computers

35


Multiple Computers

36


Multiple Computers

37


Multiple Computers

38






39



40



41



42



43



44



45






46




47



48




49



50




51



52



53



54




55




56



57







58




59



60




61






63




05

10152025303540

Time of adoption




64




65



66




67



68




69












Programmers


Multiple Computers

35


Multiple Computers

36


Multiple Computers

37


Multiple Computers

38






39



40



41



42



43



44



45






46




47



48




49



50




51



52



53



54




55




56



57







58




59



60




61






63




05

10152025303540

Time of adoption




64




65



66




67



68




69












Programmers


Multiple Computers

36


Multiple Computers

37


Multiple Computers

38






39



40



41



42



43



44



45






46




47



48




49



50




51



52



53



54




55




56



57







58




59



60




61






63




05

10152025303540

Time of adoption




64




65



66




67



68




69












Programmers


Multiple Computers

37


Multiple Computers

38






39



40



41



42



43



44



45






46




47



48




49



50




51



52



53



54




55




56



57







58




59



60




61






63




05

10152025303540

Time of adoption




64




65



66




67



68




69












Programmers


Multiple Computers

38






39



40



41



42



43



44



45






46




47



48




49



50




51



52



53



54




55




56



57







58




59



60




61






63




05

10152025303540

Time of adoption




64




65



66




67



68




69












Programmers






39



40



41



42



43



44



45






46




47



48




49



50




51



52



53



54




55




56



57







58




59



60




61






63




05

10152025303540

Time of adoption




64




65



66




67



68




69












Programmers



40



41



42



43



44



45






46




47



48




49



50




51



52



53



54




55




56



57







58




59



60




61






63




05

10152025303540

Time of adoption




64




65



66




67



68




69












Programmers



41



42



43



44



45






46




47



48




49



50




51



52



53



54




55




56



57







58




59



60




61






63




05

10152025303540

Time of adoption




64




65



66




67



68




69












Programmers



42



43



44



45






46




47



48




49



50




51



52



53



54




55




56



57







58




59



60




61






63




05

10152025303540

Time of adoption




64




65



66




67



68




69












Programmers



43



44



45






46




47



48




49



50




51



52



53



54




55




56



57







58




59



60




61






63




05

10152025303540

Time of adoption




64




65



66




67



68




69












Programmers



44



45






46




47



48




49



50




51



52



53



54




55




56



57







58




59



60




61






63




05

10152025303540

Time of adoption




64




65



66




67



68




69












Programmers



45






46




47



48




49



50




51



52



53



54




55




56



57







58




59



60




61






63




05

10152025303540

Time of adoption




64




65



66




67



68




69












Programmers






46




47



48




49



50




51



52



53



54




55




56



57







58




59



60




61






63




05

10152025303540

Time of adoption




64




65



66




67



68




69












Programmers




47



48




49



50




51



52



53



54




55




56



57







58




59



60




61






63




05

10152025303540

Time of adoption




64




65



66




67



68




69












Programmers



48




49



50




51



52



53



54




55




56



57







58




59



60




61






63




05

10152025303540

Time of adoption




64




65



66




67



68




69












Programmers




49



50




51



52



53



54




55




56



57







58




59



60




61






63




05

10152025303540

Time of adoption




64




65



66




67



68




69












Programmers



50




51



52



53



54




55




56



57







58




59



60




61






63




05

10152025303540

Time of adoption




64




65



66




67



68




69












Programmers




51



52



53



54




55




56



57







58




59



60




61






63




05

10152025303540

Time of adoption




64




65



66




67



68




69












Programmers



52



53



54




55




56



57







58




59



60




61






63




05

10152025303540

Time of adoption




64




65



66




67



68




69












Programmers



53



54




55




56



57







58




59



60




61






63




05

10152025303540

Time of adoption




64




65



66




67



68




69












Programmers



54




55




56



57







58




59



60




61






63




05

10152025303540

Time of adoption




64




65



66




67



68




69












Programmers




55




56



57







58




59



60




61






63




05

10152025303540

Time of adoption




64




65



66




67



68




69












Programmers




56



57







58




59



60




61






63




05

10152025303540

Time of adoption




64




65



66




67



68




69












Programmers



57







58




59



60




61






63




05

10152025303540

Time of adoption




64




65



66




67



68




69












Programmers




58




59



60




61






63




05

10152025303540

Time of adoption




64




65



66




67



68




69












Programmers




59



60




61






63




05

10152025303540

Time of adoption




64




65



66




67



68




69












Programmers



60




61






63




05

10152025303540

Time of adoption




64




65



66




67



68




69












Programmers




61






63




05

10152025303540

Time of adoption




64




65



66




67



68




69












Programmers






63




05

10152025303540

Time of adoption




64




65



66




67



68




69












Programmers



64




65



66




67



68




69












Programmers




65



66




67



68




69












Programmers



66




67



68




69












Programmers




67



68




69












Programmers



68




69












Programmers




69












Programmers












Programmers

moscow futureprogramming2013

Technology

future of programming

world basic reaction

model car

future pcs

programming job

underwear basic reaction

cruising speed

mph mileage