morning consult future of mobility...the future. 12 mobility today & tomorrow by 2050, do you...

THE FUTURE OF MOBILITY

H O W R E A L P E O P L E V I E W

S L I D E /

Key Points

2

O V E R V I E W

Adults overwhelmingly regard the automotive industry as innovative, dynamic and changing for the better- in close association with tech

Methodology:

Morning Consult conducted a national survey of 2,201 adults from January 20 – 21, 2018. The interviews were conducted online and the data were weighted to approximate a target sample of adults based on age, race/ethnicity, gender, educational attainment, and region. Results from the full survey have a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points

1

Americans view the automotive industry as innovative, competitive and changing

2

Strong majorities say vehicles will and should be powered by something other than gasoline by 2050

3

4

Majority of people are distrustful of autonomous vehicles but willing to change as the technology evolves

5 6

Adults predict most vehicles will be fully or mostly autonomous by 2050

Those who own hybrid or electric vehicles are most likely to be the first adopters of fully autonomous vehicles

Generally, a future of fully electric vehicles is exciting to adults across demographic indicators

S L I D E /

Contents

3

O V E R V I E W

Adults overwhelmingly regard the automotive industry as innovative, dynamic and changing for the better- in close association with tech

1

Mobility Today& Tomorrow

Autonomous Vehicles in 2050

Electric Vehicles in 2050

2 3

MOBILITY TODAY & TOMORROW

S L I D E /

47%

33%

30%

29%

24%

22%

19%

18%

17%

31%

37%

39%

43%

40%

37%

38%

33%

28%

6%

10%

13%

10%

13%

18%

22%

23%

28%

4%

4%

3%

4%

8%

5%

10%

12%

14%

17%

14%

14%

18%

15%

16%

16%

15%

Technology Industry

Renewable energy industry

Social media companies

Automotive industry

Ride sharing companies

Pharmaceutical Industry

Hospitality Industry

Oil and gas industry

Health insurance industry

Very Innovative Somewhat Innovative Not too innovative Not innovative at all Don't Know/No Opinion

Americans agree the automotive industry is innovative.

5

How innovative do you consider each of the following?M O B I L I T Y T O D A Y & T O M O R R O W

S L I D E /

33%34%35%39%

47%51%

54%58%

67%

50%46%

44%42%

31%32%

26%25%

17%

Healthinsuranceindustry

Oil and gasindustry

Hospitalityindustry

Pharmaceuticalindustry

Ride sharingcompanies

Social mediacompanies

Renewableenergy industry

Automotiveindustry

Technologyindustry

Changing for the better Changing for the worse

Consumers say tech and automotive are changing the most, and for the better.

6

M O B I L I T Y T O D A Y & T O M O R R O W

Would you say each of the following is mostly changing and innovating or mostly staying the same?

S L I D E /

64%

60%

57%

47%

46%

46%

46%

42%

36%

13%

16%

17%

23%

24%

27%

25%

29%

31%

7%

7%

8%

12%

12%

9%

11%

11%

14%

16%

16%

18%

17%

18%

17%

18%

18%

19%

Technology Industry

Automotive Industry

Renewable energy industry

Health insurance industry

Oil and gas industry

Social media companies

Pharmaceutical Industry

Ride sharing companies

Hospitality industry

Major changes Minor changes Stay about the same Don't Know/No OpinionConsumers expect the auto industry to be among the most changed in America by 2050.

7


Thinking ahead to the year 2050, do you think each of the following industries or types of companies will undergo major changes, minor changes, or stay about the same as they are today?

S L I D E /

Adults recognize automotive as one of the most competitive industries alongside technology.

8


As you may know, competition within an industry refers to companies that offer similar products or services competing for your business. Generally, how much competition exists in each of the following?

23%23%28%31%31%32%32%

48%50%

38%39%33%33%32%30%35%

26%26%

18%15%18%15%17%16%15%

9%7% 5%4%5%

18%20%16%18%16%17%16%14%15%

Ride sharingcompanies

Renewableenergy industry

Oil and gasindustry

Hospitalityindustry

Healthinsuranceindustry

Pharmaceuticalindustry

Social mediacompanies

Automotiveindustry

Technologyindustry

A lot Some Not much None at all Don't Know/No Opinion

S L I D E /

Adults say tech titans will more likely than not be manufacturing or supplying vehicles by 2050.

9


How likely is it that each of the following companies will be manufacturing or supplying vehicles by the year 2050?

28%

26%

26%

23%

23%

25%

15%

17%

16%

12%

11%

11%

22%

23%

23%

Google

Amazon

Apple

Very likely Somewhat likely Not too likely Not likely at all Don't Know / No Opinion

S L I D E /

Adults predict a stable future for technology companies, though are less sure about the future of ride-sharing and taxi cab companies.

1 0


Thinking ahead to the year 2050, do you believe each of the following will still be in business?

73%

73%

71%

55%

53%

48%

45%

32%

5%

5%

6%

16%

13%

19%

20%

37%

22%

21%

22%

29%

34%

33%

35%

31%

Google

Amazon

Apple

Ride-Sharing Companies

Tesla

Uber

Lyft

Taxi Cab Companies

Yes, will be in business No, will not be in business Don't Know / No Opinion

S L I D E /

People recognize the mobility challenges that low income, senior, and disabled Americans face.

1 1


As you may know, mobility refers to the ability to easily move from one place to another. Generally, how mobile would you say each of the following are?

9%10%12%

26%31%

36%39%

62%

20%

30%26%

35%

43%37%33%

15%

43%

37%37%

19%

8%8%9%5% 13%

8%9%4%

Disabledindividuals

SeniorsLow-incomeindividuals

Individuals wholive in rural areas

Middle-incomeindividuals

Individuals wholive in suburban

areas

Individuals wholive in cities/urban

areas

High-incomeindividuals

Very mobile Somewhat mobile Not too mobile Not mobile at all

S L I D E /

Americans expect automotive innovation, especially autonomous vehicles, to increase mobility in the future.

1 2


By 2050, do you believe each of the following will increase mobility, decrease mobility, or not have much impact on mobility either way?

46%

44%

41%

11%

12%

11%

18%

20%

22%

25%

24%

25%

Autonomous vehicles

Ride sharing services

Electric vehicles

Increase mobility Decrease mobilityNot have much impact either way Don't Know/No Opinion

ELECTRIC VEHICLES 2050

photo from: cdn.drivemag.netphoto from: newyorktimes.com

S L I D E /

Half of adults are at least somewhat familiar with hybrid and electric vehicles.

1 4

E L E C T R I C V E H I C L E S 2 0 5 0

How much would you say you know about each of the following?

11%

10%

39%

39%

29%

31%

20%

20%

Hybrid vehicles

Electric vehicles

A lot Some Not much Nothing at all

S L I D E /

And while they’re more likely to consider a hybrid vehicle over electric, both are unlikely purchases for most.

1 5


Assuming you are in the market for a new car, how likely are you to consider buying…

14%

24%

22%

26%

Total UnlikelyTotal Likely

11%

16%

26%

35%

Total UnlikelyTotal Likely

Hybrid Vehicle Electric Vehicle

Very likely Somewhat likely Not too likely Not likely at all

S L I D E /

2 in 3 adults say the majority of vehicles will be powered by something other than gasoline by 2050.

1 6


In the year 2050, do you think the majority of cars, trucks and other vehicles will be powered by...

13%

44%20%

23%GasolineElectricitySomething elseDon't Know/No Opinion

S L I D E /

Adults predict electric vehicles will be more affordable, efficient, and accessible than their gas-powered counterparts by 2050.

1 7


In the year 2050, do you think gasoline powered vehicles or electric vehicles will…

32%

27%

21%

38%

46%

51%

30%

27%

28%

Be most affordable to people like you

Be able to drive the farthest without needing to refill or recharge

Make up the vast majority of automotive sales in the U.S.

Gasoline powered vehicles Electric vehicles Don't Know / No Opinion

S L I D E /

The prospect of a fully electric future is seen as exciting.

1 8


Would you say a future of fully electric vehicles would be...

23%

37%12%

6%

21%Very excitingSomewhat excitingSomewhat disappointingVery disappointingDon't Know / No Opinion

AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES2050

S L I D E /

Information gap: 60% of Americans know little to nothing about autonomous vehicles.

2 0

A U T O N O M O U S V E H I C L E S 2 0 5 0

How much would you say you know about each of the following?

9%

31%

36%

24%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

A lot Some Not much Nothing at all

S L I D E /

Despite divided support for autonomous vehicles, the majority of Americans generally distrust them.

2 1


Based on what you know, do you trust or distrust autonomous vehicles?

9%

23%

30%

22%

16%Trust completelyTrust somewhatDistrust somewhatDistrust completelyDon't Know/ No Opinion

S L I D E /

Current adopters of new car technologyare most trustful ofautonomous vehicles.

2 2


9%

40%

30%

21%

23%

24%

34%

31%

30%

16%

18%

24%

22%

10%

11%

13%

16%

10%

7%

11%

Adults

Own Electric Car

Own Hybrid Car

Use Ride-Sharing Once a Month

Trust completely Trust somewhat Distrust somewhatDistrust completely Don't Know/No Opinion

Based on what you know, do you trust or distrust autonomous vehicles?

64%*

* Indicates total support

64%*

52%*

32%*

S L I D E /

Today, adults trust an autonomous vehicle designed by a technology company over an automotive company.

2 3


Which of the following would you trust more? An autonomous vehicle designed by...

34%23%

43%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

A technology company An automotive company Don't Know / No Opinion

S L I D E /

Google, Amazon, and Apple are seen as equally capable of manufacturing and supplying autonomous vehicles.

2 4


If each of the following begins to manufacture or supply vehicles, how likely would you be to operate an autonomous vehicle by…

22%

20%

19%

20%

22%

21%

15%

16%

17%

19%

19%

19%

23%

24%

23%

Google

Amazon

Apple

Very likely Somewhat likely Not too likelyNot likely at all Don't Know / No Opinion

S L I D E /

Adults are generally divided on support for autonomous vehicles on American roads.

2 5

As you may know, autonomous vehicles, also known as self-driving cars, are predicted to be available to consumers in the next few years. Generally speaking, do you support or oppose the use of autonomous vehicles on American roads?


14%

25%

22%

20%

19%Strongly supportSomewhat supportSomewhat opposeStrongly opposeDon't Know/No Opinion

S L I D E /

Those who own hybrid or electric vehicles show greater support for autonomous vehicles.

2 6


14%

47%

40%

26%

25%

23%

30%

34%

22%

14%

16%

17%

20%

5%

7%

10%

19%

11%

7%

13%

Adults

Own Electric Car

Own Hybrid Car

Use Ride-Sharing Once a Month

Strongly support Somewhat support Somewhat opposeStrongly oppose Don't Know/No Opinion

As you may know, autonomous vehicles, also known as self-driving cars, are predicted to be available to consumers in the next few years. Generally speaking, do you support or oppose the use of autonomous vehicles on American roads?

S L I D E /

Open to change: 3 in 5 adults say their opinion on autonomous vehicles could change as the technology evolves.

2 7


Which of the following comes closest to your view?

58%36%

6%I don't trust self-driving cars right now, but as the technology evolves I could trust themI will never trust self-driving cars

Don't Know / No Opinion

S L I D E /

Adults across all ages show a willingness to change opinions on autonomous vehicles as the technology evolves.

2 8


58%

61%

52%

59%

56%

36%

31%

42%

35%

37%

6%

8%

6%

5%

7%

Adults

Age: 18-34

Age: 35-44

Age: 45-64

Age: 65+

I don't trust self-driving cars right now, but as the technology evolves I could trust themI will never trust self-driving carsDon't Know/No Opinion

Which of the following comes closest to your view?

S L I D E /

Still, multiple safety issues concern adults a great deal…

2 9


How concerned are you with each of the following issues regarding autonomous vehicles?

36%47%51%53%

30%

31%28%26%16%

8%8%7%

12%11%10%11%

Safety of personal data,such as GPS tracking

Driverless cars & human-operated cars being on

street together

Road safetyTechnological glitches in thedriverless cars

Very concerned Somewhat Concerned Not too concernedNot concerned at all Don't Know/No Opinion

S L I D E /

Overwhelmingly, adults say there should be restrictions applied to operators of autonomous vehicles.

3 0


Which of the following comes closest to your view, even if none are exactly right?

15%

63%

21%

Operators of autonomousvehicles should be allowed todo whatever they want, suchas read or watch television inthe vehicle, as long as they arealert enough to take control ofthe vehicle if need beThere should be restrictions onwhat operators ofautonomous vehicles areallowed to do to ensure theyare alert enough to take overcontrol of the vehicle if need be

Don't Know/No Opinion

S L I D E /

If traveling in an autonomous vehicle, 3 in 5 adults say they’re likely to do nothing but operate the vehicle, though majorities are also likely to eat or make telephone calls.

3 1


If you operated an autonomous vehicle now and could rely on the vehicle to control itself, how likely would you be to do each of the following while traveling?

30%

24%

23%

21%

19%

18%

17%

15%

12%

11%

10%

27%

35%

34%

24%

28%

25%

21%

14%

22%

15%

10%

17%

13%

14%

17%

16%

18%

20%

21%

26%

24%

26%

9%

13%

14%

17%

16%

18%

20%

21%

26%

24%

26%

17%

13%

14%

15%

14%

14%

14%

14%

15%

15%

15%

Do nothing but operate the vehicles

Eat

Make call

Surf the Internet

Text

Send emails

Read

Sleep

Groom

Romance

Exercise

Very likely Somewhat likely Not too likelyNot likely at all Don't Know/No Opinion

S L I D E /

Americans are divided over the future capabilities of autonomous vehicles.

3 2


In the year 2050, do you think the vast majority of vehicles in the United States will be...

22%

37%

20%

21%

Fully self-driving,autonomous vehicles thathave no human elementspresent when it comes todrivingMostly self-drivingautonomous vehicles withsome options or situationswhere human elements willdriveAbout the same as it is now,where vehicles have someautonomous features butwith humans still fully incontrol of drivingDon't Know / No Opinion

S L I D E /

Unsurprisingly, younger adults are more confident in a fully autonomous future.

3 3


In the year 2050, do you think the vast majority of vehicles in the United States will be...

22%

33%

22%

17%

14%

37%

31%

36%

40%

41%

20%

14%

17%

23%

26%

21%

23%

25%

20%

19%

Adults

Age: 18-34

Age: 35-44

Age: 45-64

Age: 65+

Fully self-driving, autonomous vehicles that have no human elements present when it comesto drivingMostly self-driving autonomous vehicles with some options or situations where humanelements will driveAbout the same as it is now, where vehicles have some autonomous features but withhumans still fully in control of drivingDon't Know / No Opinion

S L I D E /

Skepticism remains about whether autonomous vehicles can replace human drivers.

3 4


Which of the following statements comes closest to your view, even if none are exactly right?

45%

14%

17%

24%

Self-driving or autonomousvehicles will never be able to fullyreplace human drivers

Self-driving or autonomousvehicles will be able to fully replacehuman drivers by about 2030

Self-driving or autonomousvehicles will be able to fully replacehuman drivers by about 2050


S L I D E /

Even early adopters are not convinced.

3 5


Which of the following statements comes closest to your view, even if none are exactly right?

45%

43%

46%

14%

36%

29%

17%

9%

16%

24%

12%

9%

Adults

Own Electric Car

Own Hybrid Car

Self-driving or autonomous vehicles will never be able to fully replace human drivers

Self-driving or autonomous vehicles will be able to fully replace human drivers by about 2030

Self-driving or autonomous vehicles will be able to fully replace human drivers by about 2050


S L I D E /

Americans still expect to own cars in the future, regardless of income.

3 6


Thinking ahead to the year 2050, which of the following statements comes closest to your view, even if neither is exactly right?

27%

25%

28%

30%

46%

44%

47%

55%

27%

31%

25%

15%

Adults

Income: Under 50k

Income: 50k-100k

Income: 100k+

When we have fully self-driving or autonomous vehicles, owning a car for mostAmericans won't make sense. We will have the ability to request cars to pick us up andtake us to our destinations on demand, making it unnecessary to have your own vehicle

When we have fully self-driving or autonomous vehicles, owning a car for mostAmericans will still make sense. The ability to get in your own car and go somewhere assoon as you are ready are worth the costs of car ownership


S L I D E /

Adults predict auto insurance premiums will increase as automated ownership grows.

3 7


Based on what you know, do you think auto insurance premiums will increase or decrease because as more people own autonomous vehicles?

29%25% 20%21%

51%54%

AdultsAdults who have auto insurance

Don't Know/No Opinion Decrease Increase

S L I D E /

Insured adults express hesitancy to change plans even if autonomous vehicles become widespread.

3 8


Assuming self-driving cars make the roads safer by reducing the chance of getting into an accident, are you more likely to switch your auto insurance plan or stay with your current plan?

17%

50%

6%

27%Switch to a more affordable autoinsurance plan with less coverage

Stay with my current plan

Switch to a more expensive planwith more coverage


THANK YOU

www.MorningConsult.com

[email protected]

MICHAEL RAMLETCHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER & CO-FOUNDER

VISIT

[email protected]

KYLE DROPPCHIEF RESEARCH OFFICER & CO-FOUNDER

[email protected]

MAX COURTNEYCHIEF REVENUE OFFICER

[email protected]

TYLER SINCLAIRMANAGING DIRECTOR OF CLIENT SERVICES

morning consult future of mobility...the future. 12 mobility today & tomorrow by 2050, do you...

Documents