“Moral Issues and Voter Decision Making in the 2004 Presidential

Election”

D. Sunshine Hillygus and Todd Shields

PS: Political Science and Politics April 2005; 38, 2.

Bush Wins, and Republicans Gain in Congress

Bush victory, and Republicans gains in Congress led many journalists and pundits it attribute to “values voters” after exist polls recorded voters citing “moral values” and the success of a push to ban gay marriage in 11 states.

“It seemed that the president rode to victory on a wave of values voters who…”

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SSM, Abortion and Values in the 2004 Election

How significant were “values” issues (SSM, abortion) on “individual voter choice” in the 2004 Election in relation to other issues: partisanship, economy, Iraq.

Findings:Using a national post-election poll, authors found that

SSM was not the most important issue. It was not the most important predictor of vote choice. It had no effect on Independents, respondents in battleground states, or even those with bans on SSM.

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Exit Polls and Bans on SSM

Observers inflated the importance of “moral values” (See table 1).

Exit PollOne poll found “moral values” to be the most important issue for largest number of respondents, 80% whom voted for Bush.

Bans on SSM:11 states passed them, and they passed by wide margins

(between 57 and 86%), even in so-called blue states like Oregon.

Criticisms

Problems with prevailing interpretations of the role of SSM and the 2004 election:

1) Wording of the poll:2) “Moral Values” is poorly defined3) % supporting MV (22%) is not significantly higher than the number that ranked the econ (20%), terrorism (19%) or Iraq (15%) as the most significant.4) Is MV related to SSM?: 59% voted on the same poll supported Civil Unions.

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What did Motivate Voters?

If not SSM, what did shape Voter Behavior?More than any particular, or single issue (including

abortion) what shaped or determined voter choice was partisanship.

In 2004, voters very loyal to their parties, regardless of their policy positions. Even when they disagreed with their parties candidate they voted for them.

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