monsoon intraseasonal-interannual variability and prediction harry hendon bmrc (also clivar aamp)...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Monsoon Intraseasonal-Interannual Variability and Prediction Harry Hendon BMRC (also CLIVAR AAMP) Acknowledge contributions: Oscar Alves, Eunpa Lim, Guomin](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062408/56649ef65503460f94c0a30d/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Monsoon Intraseasonal-Interannual Variability and Prediction
Harry Hendon BMRC (also CLIVAR AAMP)
Acknowledge contributions:
Oscar Alves, Eunpa Lim, Guomin Wang, Hongyan Zhu (BMRC)
David Anderson (ECMWF)
Daehyun Kim (SNU/US CLIVAR MJO Metrics Working Group)
![Page 2: Monsoon Intraseasonal-Interannual Variability and Prediction Harry Hendon BMRC (also CLIVAR AAMP) Acknowledge contributions: Oscar Alves, Eunpa Lim, Guomin](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062408/56649ef65503460f94c0a30d/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Monsoon Predictive Capabilities next 5-10 yearsfrom BMRC Dynamical Seasonal Prediction Strategic Plan
30 day forecasts (atmospheric initial conditions)broad scale onset/active/breakindividual MJO events regional rainfall (accumulations/probability)severe weather episodes (probability of TC genesis, extreme
rainfall accumulation, heat wave, floods )
1-9 month prediction (ocean/land initial conditions)ENSO and its monsoon teleconnectionIOD and its monsoon teleconnectionMJO activityDelayed/early onsetSeasonal rainfall accumulation
Directly tie dynamical model output into applicationsstream flow models, crop models,…..
![Page 3: Monsoon Intraseasonal-Interannual Variability and Prediction Harry Hendon BMRC (also CLIVAR AAMP) Acknowledge contributions: Oscar Alves, Eunpa Lim, Guomin](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062408/56649ef65503460f94c0a30d/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Current situation: along way to go / unachievable?
To progress intraseasonal/seasonal monsoon prediction:
1) Improve understanding of monsoon variability and predictability
process studies/theory/predictability studies
1) Improve modeling systems
model physics/initial conditions
![Page 4: Monsoon Intraseasonal-Interannual Variability and Prediction Harry Hendon BMRC (also CLIVAR AAMP) Acknowledge contributions: Oscar Alves, Eunpa Lim, Guomin](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062408/56649ef65503460f94c0a30d/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Key Research Areas for Improved Understanding of Monsoon Intraseasonal-Seasonal Predictability
Determination of the limits of predictability and causes of the loss of predictability (for the coupled systems as a whole)
Improved understanding of ENSO and its teleconnection
Role of intra-seasonal variability (esp. MJO) in the evolution of Monsoon (and ENSO) and its impact on predictability
Understanding of Indian Ocean variability, it’s predictability and it’s impact on Monsoons
Decadal variability, principally ENSO and IOD and their teleconnections into monsoon
Impact of climate change on seasonal climate forecasts
![Page 5: Monsoon Intraseasonal-Interannual Variability and Prediction Harry Hendon BMRC (also CLIVAR AAMP) Acknowledge contributions: Oscar Alves, Eunpa Lim, Guomin](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062408/56649ef65503460f94c0a30d/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Model System Development Foci from BMRC Dynamical Seasonal Prediction Strategic Plan
i) Improved representation of tropical convection (not just limited to MJO)
ii) Reduced coupled model drift/bias iii) Improved initialisation of the coupled system (including
land surface) through advanced data assimilation systems that initialise the coupled model as one system
(iv) Improved modelling of oceanic processes particularly tropical thermocline structure, boundary currents, and instability waves
(v) Improved modelling of the land surface(vI) Inclusion of changing greenhouse gases/aerosols
![Page 6: Monsoon Intraseasonal-Interannual Variability and Prediction Harry Hendon BMRC (also CLIVAR AAMP) Acknowledge contributions: Oscar Alves, Eunpa Lim, Guomin](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062408/56649ef65503460f94c0a30d/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Current Status of Dynamical Forecast System at BMRC
POAMA: Coupled AGCM/OGCM together with ocean data assimilation system
T47L17 AGCM coupled to OGCM MOM2 0.5 x 2 deg
Ocean Initial conditions: 2-d OI assimilation subsurface T and SST (soon to be updated to EKF)
Atmosphere: latest global NWP initial conditions
Runs operationally (9 mnth forecast everyday)
![Page 7: Monsoon Intraseasonal-Interannual Variability and Prediction Harry Hendon BMRC (also CLIVAR AAMP) Acknowledge contributions: Oscar Alves, Eunpa Lim, Guomin](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062408/56649ef65503460f94c0a30d/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Sfc Zonal wind
Thermocline SST
Skill (ACC) from hindcasts 1987-2001 (all months)
+1
+3
+5
+7
Not much better than persistence
![Page 8: Monsoon Intraseasonal-Interannual Variability and Prediction Harry Hendon BMRC (also CLIVAR AAMP) Acknowledge contributions: Oscar Alves, Eunpa Lim, Guomin](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062408/56649ef65503460f94c0a30d/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
LT 0
LT 3
LT 6
Skill for Mean DJF Monsoon Rainfall POAMA 1982-2005
(correlation coef blue neg/red pos)
Similar results for Indian/Asian Monsoon
No skill with current system!
![Page 9: Monsoon Intraseasonal-Interannual Variability and Prediction Harry Hendon BMRC (also CLIVAR AAMP) Acknowledge contributions: Oscar Alves, Eunpa Lim, Guomin](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062408/56649ef65503460f94c0a30d/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
DMI (Reynolds)
-0.2-0.1
00.10.2
0.30.4
0.50.60.7
0.80.9
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Lead Time (month)
Co
rr.
Co
eff.
POAMA 1.5
Persistence
POAMA 1.5a Persistence
Nov
Skill Dipole Mode Index 1982-2005 POAMA
Start month
Lead time Lead time
![Page 10: Monsoon Intraseasonal-Interannual Variability and Prediction Harry Hendon BMRC (also CLIVAR AAMP) Acknowledge contributions: Oscar Alves, Eunpa Lim, Guomin](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062408/56649ef65503460f94c0a30d/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Current Status of MJO Simulation/Prediction
ECMWF System 3
(courtesy David Anderson)
UKMO Unified Model version 6 (soon to be atmospheric component of BoM Coupled Model)
![Page 11: Monsoon Intraseasonal-Interannual Variability and Prediction Harry Hendon BMRC (also CLIVAR AAMP) Acknowledge contributions: Oscar Alves, Eunpa Lim, Guomin](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062408/56649ef65503460f94c0a30d/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
w-k power spectra U850 1979-88
Observed
UKMO Unified Model Version 6
1979-88 AMIP
![Page 12: Monsoon Intraseasonal-Interannual Variability and Prediction Harry Hendon BMRC (also CLIVAR AAMP) Acknowledge contributions: Oscar Alves, Eunpa Lim, Guomin](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062408/56649ef65503460f94c0a30d/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Power Spectrum Velocity Pot 200 hPa
as function of longitude along equator
Anderson et al 2007
![Page 13: Monsoon Intraseasonal-Interannual Variability and Prediction Harry Hendon BMRC (also CLIVAR AAMP) Acknowledge contributions: Oscar Alves, Eunpa Lim, Guomin](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062408/56649ef65503460f94c0a30d/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Diagnostic study of representation of MJO/organized convection in forecast/climate models
Compare convective behavior in 2 runs of NCAR CAM
Multi Model Framework - Randel CSU(super-parameterization: 2 d cloud resolving model at each grid box)
Parameterized convection (Zhang and MacFarlane)
![Page 14: Monsoon Intraseasonal-Interannual Variability and Prediction Harry Hendon BMRC (also CLIVAR AAMP) Acknowledge contributions: Oscar Alves, Eunpa Lim, Guomin](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062408/56649ef65503460f94c0a30d/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Power Spectra Precipitation MMF CAM
MMF Power Spectra U850 CAM
![Page 15: Monsoon Intraseasonal-Interannual Variability and Prediction Harry Hendon BMRC (also CLIVAR AAMP) Acknowledge contributions: Oscar Alves, Eunpa Lim, Guomin](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062408/56649ef65503460f94c0a30d/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Scatter between precipitation and saturation fraction
MMF CAM
Reality apparently somewhere in between (Bretherton et al 2004)
![Page 16: Monsoon Intraseasonal-Interannual Variability and Prediction Harry Hendon BMRC (also CLIVAR AAMP) Acknowledge contributions: Oscar Alves, Eunpa Lim, Guomin](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062408/56649ef65503460f94c0a30d/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Correlation between precipitation and relative humility anomaly
MMF
CAM
(at 992hPa )
![Page 17: Monsoon Intraseasonal-Interannual Variability and Prediction Harry Hendon BMRC (also CLIVAR AAMP) Acknowledge contributions: Oscar Alves, Eunpa Lim, Guomin](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062408/56649ef65503460f94c0a30d/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Recommendations for AMY08-YTC Intraseasonal-Interannual Prediction
Focus on improved representation of convection in models (commit resources to model development)
Design diagnostic studies for behavior of convection in models
Make appropriate observations to support model improvement of convection
Enhance atmospheric and oceanic observing system especially in Indian Ocean to improve atmos/ocean initial conditions
Develop coupled ocean/atmosphere/land data assimilation
Promote/design model/observation studies for understanding predictability of monsoon
Impact of land/ocean initialization
![Page 18: Monsoon Intraseasonal-Interannual Variability and Prediction Harry Hendon BMRC (also CLIVAR AAMP) Acknowledge contributions: Oscar Alves, Eunpa Lim, Guomin](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062408/56649ef65503460f94c0a30d/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Correlation U850’ NCEP1 and ERA40 1979-2001
20-120 day
2-10 day
Deahyun Kim
![Page 19: Monsoon Intraseasonal-Interannual Variability and Prediction Harry Hendon BMRC (also CLIVAR AAMP) Acknowledge contributions: Oscar Alves, Eunpa Lim, Guomin](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062408/56649ef65503460f94c0a30d/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Coherence (w-k) U850 with OLR 1979-2002
ERA 40 NCEP1 ERA40-NCEP1
![Page 20: Monsoon Intraseasonal-Interannual Variability and Prediction Harry Hendon BMRC (also CLIVAR AAMP) Acknowledge contributions: Oscar Alves, Eunpa Lim, Guomin](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062408/56649ef65503460f94c0a30d/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Rainfall Potential Predictability
(% variance)
ANOVA for Ensemble of AGCM forced with observed SST 1982-2002
Observed rainfall correlation with Nino4
Seasonal mean monsoon anomaly is unpredictable?
Reflects low sigma/mean