monetary policy and financial stability statement...13.50% 3yr 5yr 7yr 10yr 15yr 20yr bond yc as end...

1Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Statement, 25th February 2020

NATIONAL BANK OF RWANDABANKI NKURU Y’U RWANDA

MONETARY POLICY AND FINANCIAL STABILITY STATEMENT

28th August 2020

MPFSS, A

ugust 2020

2 | P a g e

2 | P a g e

MONETARY POLICY AND FINANCIAL STABILITY STATEMENT

28th August 2020

Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Statement, 28th August 2020


i

1

27

42

45

84

12

v


Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Statement, 28th August 2020ii

5 | P a g e


iii

6 | P a g e


Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Statement, 28th August 2020iv

7 | P a g e


v

8 | P a g e

__________________________________________________________________


Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Statement, 28th August 2020vi

9 | P a g e


vii

10 | P a g e


Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Statement, 28th August 2020viii

11 | P a g e


1

12 | P a g e



13 | P a g e


3

14 | P a g e



15 | P a g e


5

16 | P a g e



17 | P a g e


7

18 | P a g e

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

90.00

100.00

110.00

2015

M02

2015

M04

2015

M06

2015

M08

2015

M10

2015

M12

2016

M02

2016

M04

2016

M06

2016

M08

2016

M10

2016

M12

2017

M02

2017

M04

2017

M06

2017

M08

2017

M10

2017

M12

2018

M02

2018

M04

2018

M06

2018

M08

2018

M10

2018

M12

2019

M02

2019

M04

2019

M06

2019

M08

2019

M10

2019

M12

2020

M02

2020

M04

2020

M06

Energy Non-energy Agriculture 93.67 Fertilizers 101.39 Metals & Minerals 73.85



19 | P a g e

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

90.00

100.00

110.00

120.00

2014

M02

2014

M04

2014

M06

2014

M08

2014

M10

2014

M12

2015

M02

2015

M04

2015

M06

2015

M08

2015

M10

2015

M12

2016

M02

2016

M04

2016

M06

2016

M08

2016

M10

2016

M12

2017

M02

2017

M04

2017

M06

2017

M08

2017

M10

2017

M12

2018

M02

2018

M04

2018

M06

2018

M08

2018

M10

2018

M12

2019

M02

2019

M04

2019

M06

2019

M08

2019

M10

2019

M12

2020

M02

2020

M04

2020

M06

Crude oil, average Crude oil, Brent Crude oil, WTI


9

20 | P a g e



21 | P a g e


11

22 | P a g e



23 | P a g e


13

24 | P a g e



25 | P a g e


15

26 | P a g e



27 | P a g e


17

28 | P a g e



29 | P a g e


19

30 | P a g e



31 | P a g e


21

32 | P a g e



33 | P a g e


23

34 | P a g e



35 | P a g e

Exports Value in USD millions 108.3 132.7 98.4 125.3 108.9 58.0 26.1

Percent change 0.7 12.6 -25.8 27.3 -13.1 -8.1 -55.1

Share of total exports 16.2 18.1 9.5 11.2 8.8 10.7 4.4

Imports Value in USD millions 21.7 30.6 23.3 20.3 11.8 6.8 2.1

Percent change 13.4 40.0 -23.9 -12.8 -41.7 -40.0 -68.7

Share of total imports 0.9 1.4 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.5 0.1

Trade balance 86.5 91.4 75.1 105.0 97.1 51.3 24.0


25

36 | P a g e



37 | P a g e


27

38 | P a g e



39 | P a g e

-1.0

1.0

3.0

5.0

7.0

9.0

Headline Core


29

40 | P a g e



41 | P a g e


31

42 | P a g e

-10.0-5.00.05.0

10.015.020.0

Contributors to Energy Inflation

Water expenses Electricity expenses Gas (propane) Solid fuels

Diesel (fuel) Petrol (fuel) Disrepancies Energy inflation



43 | P a g e


33

44 | P a g e



45 | P a g e

Source: Financial Markets Department

242150

445 281466

268

679

338

1,665

676647

258

1,295

411

0200400600800

1,0001,2001,4001,6001,800

Volume in FRW bn Number of transactions2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Jan - June 2019 Jan - June 2020


35

46 | P a g e

11.15%11.30%

11.65%

12.25%

12.70%

10.65%

11.20%11.45%

12.15%

12.50%

13.20%

10.50%

11.00%

11.50%

12.00%

12.50%

13.00%

13.50%

3yr 5yr 7yr 10yr 15yr 20yr

Bond YC as End June 2019 Bond YC as End June 2020



47 | P a g e

Source: Rwanda Stock Exchange

30

99

179 187

275

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

050

100150200250300

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

No of deals Turnovers in billion

130

200

6.2

12.1

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Jan-June 2019 Jan-June 2020No of deals Turnovers in billion


37

48 | P a g e



49 | P a g e


39

50 | P a g e



51 | P a g e

18.3

-2.4 -3.3

36.8

-9.2

-30.0

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

2016 H1 2017 H1 2018 H1 2019 H1 2020 H1

Services provided to the community

OFI &Insurances and other non-financial services

Transport & warehousing &communication

Restaurant and hotel

Commerce

Public works and building


41

52 | P a g e



53 | P a g e

Jun-19 2.2 2.0 1.6 4.8 1.8 2.2 2.6 -0.2


43

54 | P a g e

5.7

-4.4

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

Mar

-17

Apr-

17M

ay-1

7Ju

n-17

Jul-1

7Au

g-17

Sep-

17O

ct-1

7No

v-17

Dec-

17Ja

n-18

Feb-

18M

ar-1

8Ap

r-18

May

-18

Jun-

18Ju

l-18

Aug-

18Se

p-18

Oct

-18

Nov-

18De

c-18

Jan-

19Fe

b-19

Mar

-19

Apr-

19M

ay-1

9Ju

n-19

Jul-1

9Au

g-19

Sep-

19O

ct-1

9No

v-19

Dec-

19Ja

n-20

Feb-

20M

ar-2

0Ap

r-20

May

-20

Jun-

20NEER (YoY % change) Weighted Foreign CPI (YoY % change)Rwanda CPI (YoY % change) REER (YoY % change)



55 | P a g e

32.0

20.022.0

26.5

22.0 21.0

24.0

20.020.0

25.0 25.524.5

19.0

15.0

19.3

24.5

22.025.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

2019 2020


45

56 | P a g e



57 | P a g e


47

58 | P a g e



59 | P a g e


49

60 | P a g e



61 | P a g e


51

62 | P a g e



63 | P a g e


53

64 | P a g e

1

1



65 | P a g e


55

66 | P a g e



67 | P a g e


57

68 | P a g e



69 | P a g e

2

2 Other service includes loans to education, health sector and public administration

69 | P a g e

2


69 | P a g e

2


69 | P a g e

2



59

70 | P a g e

±



71 | P a g e


61

72 | P a g e



73 | P a g e


63

74 | P a g e



75 | P a g e


65

76 | P a g e

─



77 | P a g e


67

78 | P a g e

─



79 | P a g e


69

80 | P a g e



81 | P a g e


71

82 | P a g e



83 | P a g e


73

84 | P a g e



85 | P a g e


75

86 | P a g e



87 | P a g e

2019 H1 2020 H1 % Change


77

88 | P a g e



89 | P a g e


79

90 | P a g e



91 | P a g e


81

92 | P a g e



93 | P a g e


83

94 | P a g e



95 | P a g e

__________________________________________________________________________________


85

96 | P a g e


97 | P a g e

Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Statement, 28th August 20208880 Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Statement, 25th February 2020

National Bank of RwandaKN 6 AV.4,

PO Box 531 Kigali, RwandaTel:(+250) 788 199 000

Email:[email protected]:BNRWRWRWTwitter:@CentralBankRw

Website:www.bnr.rw

monetary policy and financial stability statement...13.50% 3yr 5yr 7yr 10yr 15yr 20yr bond yc as end...

Documents