Moldova: Small country with big geopolitical

roleMonika Begovic PhD

International Conference, Chisinau, Moldova28 November 2016

New geopolitical challenges

• Interests of great powers in today’s world create a more challenging environment for small countries (small powers?) • Consequence:Small countries need to keep options open and to balance multiple relationships;Their attractiveness depends on strategic considerations of great powers

New geopolitical challenges

Moldova is a small state Why is it so important for Russia, EU, but also USA?

• Moldova is a small but strategic country located in the European borderlands - strategically important buffer zone between East and West;• It is an important component of the relations between Moscow and the

West;• Moldova today is in the ‘grey zone’ between Western (EU and NATO) and

Russian influence

Both Russia (East) and the European Union (West) have long competed for influence in Moldova

New geopolitical challenges

Moldova and its geopolitical role:• there’s still an ongoing competition between Russia and the

West over the part of the territory of the former Soviet Union • the whole geopolitical space of the former Soviet Union was

considered significant due to the transportation of oil and gas Moldova matters as a transit point for the movement of oil and natural gas from Russia into Europe and Turkey• Moldova: proximity to the strategic Ukrainian port of

Odessa and to the Russia-controlled Crimean Peninsula, where Russia's Black Sea Fleet is stationed

Geopolitical challenges - Russia

Russia and Moldova

• Russia's strong military presence in the breakaway territory of Transdniestria and in pro-Russia pockets of Moldovan territory (Gaguzia) give Moscow significant leverage

Geopolitical implications

• Russia doesn’t want Moldova to orientate towards the West - Russia needs to preserve a buffer zone between itself and NATO• Moscow retains a strong presence in Moldova's

financial sector – media report that roughly 70% of Moldova's banking sector is controlled by Russian capital

Geopolitical implications

Transnistria

After the annexation of the Crimea by Russia in March 2014 the head of the Transnistrian parliament asked to join the Russian Federation

Geopolitical challenges - West

Role of the West:

• the country has(d) pro-Western orientation:• relations with NATO through PfP – no plans to join due to

Moldova’s neutrality• striving for EU membership relations between Moldova and the EU are currently shaped via the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP), an EU foreign policy instrument dealing with countries bordering its member states

Moldova & EU

Eastern Partnership (EaP) • specific Eastern dimension to the European Neighborhood

Policy (ENP), designed to reinforce the political association and economic integration of eastern European partner countries. • governs its relationship with the post-Soviet

states: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine• provides an avenue for discussions of trade, economic

strategy, travel agreements, and other issues between the EU and its eastern neighbors

Geopolitical implications

Romania and Moldova

• Is there still a desire of Moldovan people for a unification with Romania?

On 27 November 2013, a day before participation in the Eastern Partnership Summit in Vilnius, Romanian President Basescu was interviewed and said that the third priority for Romania, after joining NATO and the EU, must be the union with Moldova

Internal political development

Presidential elections:

• Is the election of Igor Dodon a sign that Moldova may diverge from Europe?• Is Moldova, in that case, going to follow the footsteps of Hungary

and Poland?• the Moldovan election is crucial in further development of

Moldovan orientation towards East or West

Igor Dodon is the first president in 20 years to be directly elected by citizens rather than being chosen by parliament

Elections

• Moldova’s presidential election are shaping the country’s politics and international orientation

pro-Russian President, of Russian ethnic background, President who promises to strengthen ties with Russia and makes the economy of Moldova grow

Igor Dodon’s campaign was concetrated towards neglecting the association agreement with Europe and joining a Russian-sponsored economic bloc instead:Igor Dodon said the election “mark a new beginning” for a country blighted by poverty and graft

• The election was seen as a battle between those supporting closer ties

with Russia and those wanting integration with the European Union

• Headline: “Moldova’s head of state will be elected depending on the outcome of the US presidential elections”.

Political system of Moldova

Moldova is a parliamentary republic;But: the President in Moldova is more than just a figurehead: i.e. the President can return laws to parliament and dissolve the assembly in certain situationsAnd:Moldova has not had a stable parliamentary government for almost 2 years

Geopolitical implications

President vs. Government

Dodon's promise to pursue closer ties with Russia rather than the European Union is in direct conflict with the pro-European stance of the current government

Plans after elections?

Obvious political message:

Presidential elections aren’t key elections, but they’re a means to strengthen the socialists for a victory which will mean something — at the parliamentary elections in 2018 Russia will use this

Reflections...

Benefits for Croatia for entering the EU:

• Rule of law• Fight against corruption• Freedom of movement (soon Schengen)• Structural funds• Bigger market• Safety and stability• Participation in the European Parliament and European Commission

and other bodies

Moldova – what next...

Moldova must continue to balance between its Eastern and Western neighbors and

continue to carry out reforms.Reforms cannot be taken from some other country,

they have to be carried out by the people of the country!

Moldova – what next...

- ‘Small countries absorb the greatest contradictions of geopolitics’

Moldova...

Thank you!