modelling the spread of sudden oak death in the uk
DESCRIPTION
February 2012. Modelling the Spread of Sudden Oak Death in the UK. Richard Stutt Nik Cunniffe Erik DeSimone Matt Castle Chris Gilligan. Contents. Example results from landscape-scale models SOD in California (precursor to this model) SOD in UK How the model works Host landscape - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Modelling the Spread of Sudden Oak Death in the UK](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022012916/5681452d550346895db1f3e1/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Richard StuttNik Cunniffe
Erik DeSimoneMatt Castle
Chris Gilligan
February 2012
![Page 2: Modelling the Spread of Sudden Oak Death in the UK](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022012916/5681452d550346895db1f3e1/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Example results from landscape-scale models◦ SOD in California (precursor to this model)◦ SOD in UK
How the model works◦ Host landscape◦ Environmental conditions◦ Pathogen dispersal
Uses of the model◦ Predictions of spread◦ Effects of control
![Page 3: Modelling the Spread of Sudden Oak Death in the UK](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022012916/5681452d550346895db1f3e1/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
![Page 4: Modelling the Spread of Sudden Oak Death in the UK](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022012916/5681452d550346895db1f3e1/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
![Page 5: Modelling the Spread of Sudden Oak Death in the UK](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022012916/5681452d550346895db1f3e1/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
![Page 6: Modelling the Spread of Sudden Oak Death in the UK](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022012916/5681452d550346895db1f3e1/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Key components:◦ Host◦ Environment◦ Pathogen dynamics and dispersal
Expressed as a compartmental model
![Page 7: Modelling the Spread of Sudden Oak Death in the UK](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022012916/5681452d550346895db1f3e1/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Susceptible hosts in the landscape are divided into a metapopulation at a chosen resolution (250m)
UK Sudden Oak death landscape assembled from:◦ National Inventory of Woodland Trees (NIWT)◦ Forestry Commission commercial Larch data◦ Maximum Entropy suitability models for Rhododendron
and Vaccinium (FERA/JNCC)
Different hosts have different weightings for sporulation and susceptibility
![Page 8: Modelling the Spread of Sudden Oak Death in the UK](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022012916/5681452d550346895db1f3e1/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Broadleaved
Young Trees Felled
Coniferous
![Page 9: Modelling the Spread of Sudden Oak Death in the UK](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022012916/5681452d550346895db1f3e1/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
![Page 10: Modelling the Spread of Sudden Oak Death in the UK](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022012916/5681452d550346895db1f3e1/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Identify favourable conditions for P. ramorum◦ moisture ◦ temperature
Parameterise using experimental results
![Page 11: Modelling the Spread of Sudden Oak Death in the UK](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022012916/5681452d550346895db1f3e1/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Calculate underlying suitability of locations in the landscape
Statistical used to model future conditions
![Page 12: Modelling the Spread of Sudden Oak Death in the UK](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022012916/5681452d550346895db1f3e1/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Dispersal kernel is a statistical description oftransport of inoculum between locations
Implicitly incorporates many mechanisms
![Page 13: Modelling the Spread of Sudden Oak Death in the UK](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022012916/5681452d550346895db1f3e1/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Fit model using historic spread data
Used Maximum Likelihood to assess goodness of fit
Predicted probability of infection by 2010 given starting conditions in 2004
Survey Positive for P. ramorum
Survey Negative for P. ramorum
![Page 14: Modelling the Spread of Sudden Oak Death in the UK](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022012916/5681452d550346895db1f3e1/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Prediction in the absence of control Effect of controls
◦ Felling infected stands◦ Felling infected stands + proactive control
Effect of any delay in implementing control Application to surveying for P. Ramorum
![Page 15: Modelling the Spread of Sudden Oak Death in the UK](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022012916/5681452d550346895db1f3e1/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
![Page 16: Modelling the Spread of Sudden Oak Death in the UK](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022012916/5681452d550346895db1f3e1/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
![Page 17: Modelling the Spread of Sudden Oak Death in the UK](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022012916/5681452d550346895db1f3e1/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
![Page 18: Modelling the Spread of Sudden Oak Death in the UK](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022012916/5681452d550346895db1f3e1/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
![Page 19: Modelling the Spread of Sudden Oak Death in the UK](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022012916/5681452d550346895db1f3e1/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
![Page 20: Modelling the Spread of Sudden Oak Death in the UK](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022012916/5681452d550346895db1f3e1/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Total Infection
Symptomatic
Symptomatic at time of Survey
![Page 21: Modelling the Spread of Sudden Oak Death in the UK](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022012916/5681452d550346895db1f3e1/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Total Infection
Symptomatic
Symptomatic at time of Survey
![Page 22: Modelling the Spread of Sudden Oak Death in the UK](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022012916/5681452d550346895db1f3e1/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Total Infection
Symptomatic
Symptomatic at time of Survey
![Page 23: Modelling the Spread of Sudden Oak Death in the UK](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022012916/5681452d550346895db1f3e1/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Total Infection
Symptomatic
Symptomatic at time of Survey
![Page 24: Modelling the Spread of Sudden Oak Death in the UK](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022012916/5681452d550346895db1f3e1/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
![Page 25: Modelling the Spread of Sudden Oak Death in the UK](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022012916/5681452d550346895db1f3e1/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Examine region of South Wales
![Page 26: Modelling the Spread of Sudden Oak Death in the UK](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022012916/5681452d550346895db1f3e1/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Cull: no delay after survey 6 month delay
![Page 27: Modelling the Spread of Sudden Oak Death in the UK](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022012916/5681452d550346895db1f3e1/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Key Questions When Surveying for Disease:◦ Where is the disease likely to be?◦ Where is it likely to be most severe and spread
most rapidly?◦ How to optimise the sampling?
![Page 28: Modelling the Spread of Sudden Oak Death in the UK](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022012916/5681452d550346895db1f3e1/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Uses:• Currently known outbreaks • Predicted severity of
outbreaks• => Sampling weighting
Survey pattern formed• => sampling from
weightings Map shows a weighting and
a set of survey points (green)
![Page 29: Modelling the Spread of Sudden Oak Death in the UK](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022012916/5681452d550346895db1f3e1/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Continue to improve the model Refinement of country wide strategies: Region specific control Effect of non compliance User friendly models
![Page 30: Modelling the Spread of Sudden Oak Death in the UK](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022012916/5681452d550346895db1f3e1/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Frank van den Bosch, Stephen Parnell◦ Rothamsted Research
Forestry Commission, FERA◦ (in particular Bruce Rothnie and Keith Walters)
Funding from DEFRA, BBSRC and USDA