modelling multiple land- and water-use scenarios for three typical pilot areas in crimea, ukraine

IRRIGATION AND DRAINAGE

Irrig. and Drain. 60 (Suppl. 1): 11–20 (2011)

Published online in Wiley Online Library (wileyonlinelibrary.com) DOI: 10.1002/ird.663

MODELLING MULTIPLE LAND- AND WATER-USE SCENARIOS FOR THREE TYPICALPILOT AREAS IN CRIMEA, UKRAINE†

M. HOFFMANN*, O. ZHOVTONOG, O. BOLKINA AND S. MIKHAYLENKO

Institute of Water Problems and Land Reclamation (NAAN), Kiev, Ukraine

ABSTRACT

The use of Geographic Information System (GIS) models for water quantity and quality modelling is indispensable for thedetermination of impacts of land-use or climate changes that are expected to take place.

Southern Ukraine today suffers from severe droughts, floods and soil salinisation. It is therefore of utmost importance to usethe available water resources optimally and to avoid loads from coastal waters.

The paper reports the results of studies that were carried out in three pilot areas in Crimea, including the catchments of theSalgir and Pobednaya rivers. The main problems of the Upper Salgir sub-basin are related to erosion and urbanisation impacts.The transfer zone and coastal areas are subject to intensive restructuring and agricultural development, including thereconstruction and reorganisation of irrigation systems. The River Pobednaya drains a coastal area in the north-east of Crimea.Here, irrigation and drainage and in addition waste water discharges are having impacts on the Sivash Wetlands thatincreasingly cover the coastal area of the Sea of Azov.

In order to solve all these problems, regional stakeholders have been invited to develop scenarios that are further evaluatedby modelling exercises. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

key words: SWAT; GIS; Crimea; modelling

Received 19 September 2011; Accepted 19 September 2011

RÉSUMÉ

L’utilisation de modèles SIG pour la modélisation de quantité et qualité d’eau est indispensable pour déterminer les impacts deschangements d’utilisation des terres ou des changements climatiques.

Déjà aujourd’hui, le Sud de l’Ukraine souffre de graves sécheresses, d inondations et de salinisation des sols. Il est doncprimordial d’utiliser les ressources en eau disponibles de manière optimale à assurer la sécurité alimentaire pour les régionset pour éviter les intrusions marines.

Le document rapporte les résultats d’études qui ont été effectués sur trois zones pilotes de Crimée, dans les bassins versantsdes rivières Salgir et Pobednaya.

Les principaux problèmes du sous-bassin du Salgir supérieure sont liés aux impacts d’érosion et d’urbanisation. La zone detransfert et les zones côtières sont soumises à des restructurations intensives et à des développements agricoles, y compris lareconstruction et la réorganisation des systèmes d’irrigation.

Le fleuve Pobednaya draine une zone côtière dans le Nord-Est de la Crimée. Ici, l’irrigation, le drainage et les rejets d’eauxusées ont des impacts sur les zones humides du Sivash qui couvrent de plus en plus la zone côtière de la mer d’Azov.

Pour résoudre ces problèmes, les acteurs régionaux ont été invités à concevoir des scénarios qui sont ensuite évalués par desexercices demodélisation. Les résultats montrent les conséquences de ces scénarios et permettent d’approcher lameilleure solution.

mots clés: SWAT; SIG; Crimée; modélisation rivière

* Correspondence to: M. Hoffmann, Institute of Water Problems and Land Reclamation NAAN, Vasylkivska str. 37, 03022 Kyiv, Ukraine. E-mail: [email protected]†Modélisation des multiples scénarios d'utilisation des terres et des eaux dans trois zones pilotes typiques en Crimée, Ukraine.

Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

12 M. HOFFMANN ET AL.

INTRODUCTION

Land-use and river basin management planning has a longtradition in many parts of the world. Many examples–– likethe Oregon Department of Land Conservation andDevelopment (2010)––can be viewed on the Internet. Thequality of such planning in terms of potential scope,sustainability and convincing force has significantlyincreased since Geographical Information Systems (GIS)and GIS-based models have been available. In former times,much of the planning work was based on expert opinion andthus dependent on subjective experience; this included a lotof conflict potential and delays in the planning phase.

Mathematical models only partly helped to overcome therestrictions; models that could be used for a broad range ofcases were often not exact enough, and more detailedmodels could not easily be generalised.

GIS and GIS-based models enable us to include, amongstother things, even small details of land use, gained with supportof remote sensing imagery, vertical profiles of soil characteris-tics and future climate scenarios. They can be supplemented,adapted, calibrated and validated and so offer the opportunityto control output quality before decisions are made. GIS andGIS-based models are therefore nowadays indispensable.

As an example/proof of this statement the paper describeshow GIS-based modelling was used to study the impacts ofpresent land use and alternatives for land-use planning inthree pilot areas in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea(ARC), Ukraine. The goal was to optimise rural landscapedevelopment in the pilots according to political, social andecological requirements. This is of utmost importance forUkraine, especially the southern half of the country wherewater resources are not sufficient for sustainable agriculturaldevelopment. In this context, GIS-based modelling providesan instrument for spatial analyses of water availability andfor sustainable planning of water resource use.

Figure 1. Topographic map of Crimea


The paper describes how impacts on water availabilityhave been quantified using GIS, what kind of planningscenarios have been foreseen to be modelled in the threepilots, and how first results of these modelling exercises havebeen interpreted and used for policy recommendations. Theseshould also respect the requirements of the Water FrameworkDirective (WFD) (European Commission, 2000) as, forexample, to reach a good ecological state in the two rivers inthe pilots with the support of local stakeholders.

INVESTIGATION PROGRAMME FOR THEPREPARATION OF MODELLING OF SCENARIOS

The first step in the modelling of scenarios consisted inselecting the three pilots and determining the maincharacteristics and needs for further planning efforts. The finalchoice is shown on the map (Figure 1).

The main problems of the three pilots can besummarised with the focus on ‘water system services’(Kämäri et al., 2009) that have to be secured differentlyfor each separate pilot:

1. Water for people. In the basin of the Upper Salgir River(from the sources to the drinking water reservoir of theCrimean capital Simferopol) anthropogenic impacts ofthe past, present and the future have to be assessed,alternative measures to secure water for people haveto be shown and required measures for the future––withrespect to further expected climate changes––have tobe determined;

2. Water for food. The transfer zone and the lower riverreaches downstream to the Sea of Azov are mainlyused for irrigated and rainfed agriculture. The localwater resources for irrigation are, however, scarceand must be supplemented by water from the Dnieper

with the three selected pilot areas

Irrig. and Drain.60 (Suppl. 1): 11–20 (2011)

Stakeholders’ information supply and consultation

Preparation of inputs: Maps: topography, land use, soil types Database: daily meteorological data, water and land- use parameters

Modelling the present based on GIS

Result analysis, interpretation, presentation to stakeholders

Modelling alternative scenarios (of land use, climate change, etc.) including specifications from stakeholders

Comparison, selection of best choice by stakeholders

Policy recommendations to reach sustainable rural development and WFD goals

Figure 2. Involvement of stakeholders in the modelling process according to WFD requirements and SCENES project methodology

13USE OF GIS-BASED MODELLING FOR SCENARIO ASSESSMENT

River delivered over a 400 km distance through theNorth Crimean Canal (NCC). This has relevanteconomic impacts and requires an economic andwell-balanced use of available water for food;

3. Water for nature. The basin of the Pobednaya Riverin the north-east of Crimea is subject to ongoingland-use changes. The amount of irrigated agriculturecould be increased by using water from the NCCand thus ensuring higher incomes for the rural popula-tion. But then the Sivash Wetlands would receivemore water (and nutrients), leading to a decrease insalinisation and greater reed expansion and thusendangering the ecological value of the area. Therefore,the main aim of this study is to show how agriculturecan be supported while securing water for nature.

First of all, already existing information had to be collectedfrom various sources, mainly state agencies for river basinmanagement, hydro-meteorological services and localadministrations. Geographical thematic maps are availablefrom atlases (e.g. Bagrov and Rudenk, 2004) and the Internet,but most of themwere not detailed enough and not sufficientlyup to date. Therefore, the second step was to update and/ordigitise maps to provide a basin-wide overview of relevantinformation. For this purpose, satellite imagery from May,June and July 2009, provided by the firm Rapid Eye AG,and, where convenient, Google Earth maps have been used.

Last but not least, field trips had to be undertaken in orderto confirm some of the mapped details and to assess thehydromorphological status (according toWFD specifications)of the Upper Salgir (not reported here) and Pobednaya riversand their floodplains.


Figure 2 summarises all of the procedure and showshow regional and local stakeholders were involved in thewhole process. The work was done in accordance withmethods developed in the context of the EC 6th ResearchFramework Programme Water Scenarios for Europe andfor Neighbouring States (SCENES). The methodology isdescribed in more detail on a webpage of the Finnish Environ-ment Institute (SYKE, 2011) and by Zhovtonog et al. (2009).

METHODS

The GIS was set up using the ESRI software ArcView3.2a,ArcGIS 9.3. Open source programmes like MapWindowand also ArcView were also selected because many additionalextensions can be linked for a broad spectrum of tasks. Thesemodules are the hydrological simulation model SWAT(Arnold et al., 1998) and ATtILA (Environmental ProtectionAgency (EPA), 2007) to generate maps of hydrological para-meters, water quality and related landscape assessments. Thetwo modules require similar input data and maps andprovide a broad spectrum of attainable results (see alsoHoffmann et al., 2009). The Microsoft Access programGSK-Eingabe described in Bayerisches Landesamt fürWasserwirtschaft (2002) was used to calculate thehydromorphological state of the rivers and their floodplains.

RESULTS

Case study of the Upper Salgir River sub-basin

Present situation and problem setting. The UpperSalgir River sub-basin comprises an area of 27 300 ha situated


ssibleresponses(according

toWFDguidance

documentn

o.3,

2003,W

orking

Group

2.1–

–IMPRESS,

State

change

Impacts

Response

Health

risks(increaseof

cancer

rates,blue-babysyndrome)

•soilcontam

inated

•sewageandwaste

water

treatm

ent

•perm

issiblenitrateconcentration

ingroundwater

exceeded

•restrictions

inhorticulture

•garbagemanagem

ent

erosionrate

higher

than

for

typicalnaturallandscape

eutrophicatio

nof

the

reservoir

ecologically

optim

ised

landscapeplanning


in the karst region of the northern slopes of the CrimeanMountains and their forelands (maximal elevation: 1447m+MSL (mean sea level), minimal elevation 294m+MSL andmean elevation 628m+MSL) down to the Simferopoldrinking water reservoir (Figure 1).

The area is mainly covered by forests and vegetationcomparable to steppes growing on red-brown mountainsoils (partly former agricultural areas). Residential areashave been built in many places and are still developing inthe rivers’ floodplain that is covered by alluvial soils.

The main driver of this part of the basin is the increase inpopulation density that is still ongoing today. Resulting pres-sures are groundwater pollution by sewage (as canalisationdoes not exist) and horticulture. Former anthropogeniclandscape changes like deforestation, agricultural land useon steep areas and last but not least the (part) channelisationof the river bed have resulted in a severe increase of soilparticle transport down to the drinking water reservoir.Grazing cattle causes additional impacts, such as erosion, onsteppe and river habitats. Table I shows an overview of themain issues.

After crossing the sub-basin boundary, the Salgir flows intothe reservoir that delivers drinking water to the southern partof the Crimean capital Simferopol. It is about 5 km long(depending on the actual water level) and nearly 1 km wide.Its total capacity is 36 billion m3, of which 32 billion isavailable. The depth of the reservoir near the dam is 35m;raw water is abstracted in a depth of 32m. In recent years,the reservoir showed indications of eutrophication, as, forexample, a bad smell of rotten eggs (H2S) in the abstractedraw water.

TableI.

Identifi

catio

nof

drivers,pressures,statechange,impactsandpo

2003)

Drivers

Pressures

Populationgrow

th1.

Environmentalpollu

tion:

•sewagedischarge(un-flushedtoilets,absence

ofcanalisation)

•storm

water

runoffin

settlem

entareasand

from

roads

•diffuseagricultu

reandhorticulture

pollu

tion

(nutrients,pesticides,cattlebreeding)

•land

fills,w

ilddepositsandcemeteries

Use

oflandscapes

2.Pressures

onlandscapes:

•forestry

activ

ities

(clear

cuts,constructionof

forestroads,erosion)

•alteratio

nof

hydrological

regime(e.g.river

straightening)

•changesof

landscapes

(settlements,g

ardens,

roads,grazingliv

estock)

Results and recommendations. Modelling was used toanalyse the impact of the whole complex of those factors thatinfluence water quantity and quality at the outlet of the lastsub-basin just a few hundred metres upstream of the reservoirinlet. The next four maps (Figure 3) show examples of thedifferences between the sub-basins in the land use, surfacerunoff, sediment yield and organic phosphorus (orgP).

Erosion, sediment transport and suspended matter inthe river and reservoir play a key role in understandingthe nutrient loads of the reservoir. As can be viewed in themap, sediments originate mainly from the north-east of thebasin and are washed away during heavy rainfall events.Nitrogen, mainly ammonium, and phosphorous compoundsare adsorbed at the surface of eroded particles. It is thereforeimportant to reduce erosion. Additional loads from sewageplay a minor role at present but could become an importantpressure in the future. To determine the importance of thisimpact one has to set up a scenario that includes severalassumptions because it is not yet clear how many inhabitants(mainly Tatars) will settle in the floodplain in the future and if

Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Irrig. and Drain.60 (Suppl. 1): 11–20 (2011)

Figure 3. From left to right: land-use map, surface runoff (mmmonth -1); in the second row: sediment yield (t ha -1�yr -1) and phosphorous load (kg ha -1�yr -1);yearly averages


any reasonable solution will be implemented to reduce theload of soil and groundwater. In a first approach, yearlyaverage values of nutrients were calculated for the presentusing the SWAT model. If the Salgir floodplain is populatedby e.g. an additional 10 000 inhabitants in the future, thephosphorous load, originating in the floodplain, will nearlydouble. For the whole sub-basin, a rough calculation for the(wet) year 2004 (based on assumptions of no canalisationand no soil adsorption) gives the figures as shown in Table II.

The increase (12% for organic phosphorous compounds)could be even bigger, depending on population density,climatic factors and other impacts; for sure, this will aggravatewater quality problems. According to model calculations ofDillon and Rigler (1974), Bendorf (1979) and Vollenweideret al. (1980), a load of about 2 kg ha -1�yr -1 P in the riverbasin is tolerable for lakes and reservoirs.

Additional pressures will crop up, related to the ground-water quality. One can expect that nitrate concentration willseriously increase, leading to health problems and forcinginvestment in other drinking water sources.

Countermeasures that can be recommended in face of thedescribed pressures include measures to reduce erosion andsoil transport across the concerned sub-basins and todevelop an urbanisation plan that gives room for nature


and people and that solves the sewage problem locally oron a regional level.

Transfer zone and Lower Salgir case study

Present situation and problem setting. The transferzone and the Lower Salgir and its delta are locateddownstream of the Simferopol reservoir up to the SivashWetlands and Sea of Azov in the eastern part of Crimea.The flow path is about 137 km, the height difference 255m.Precipitation in the lowland area is rather low and only reachesan average of 466mm yearly. During drought periods theriver can become dry in several reaches. More precipitation(snow and rain) is regularly detected during the winter, withoccasionally heavy rainfall events in summer.

The river flow depends firstly on the amount of waterreleased from the reservoir. This amount is quite constant overlonger periods but increases at times of bigger discharges,usually in April. Further downstream, the river flow isinfluenced by a quite small water yield, which is, however,quite different in the various sub-basins, and by waterabstractions along the river. To satisfy the needs of irrigatedagriculture irrigation water is mainly withdrawn from theNCC, but its costs are high in this region because of charges


Table II. Results of a rough calculation for the (wet) year 2004

Org P Inorg P Org N NO3-N

Average loads in kg ha -1�yr -1 at present 2.5 0.13 19 5% increase (calculated for 10 000 additional inhabitants in the floodplain �) 12 8


for pumping and rather high energy tariffs. Therefore, thereis a strong economic interest (mainly for small farmers)to use the cheaper water supply from local resources, e.g.for vegetables.

As shown in Figure 4, reservoir water is supplied fordifferent sectors leading to temporal shortfalls and morereliance on the NCC water supply. This is another reasonwhy local water resources should be used as efficiently aspossible, including the use of storage basins and dripirrigation. Further downstream sewage and industrial wastewater is discharged into the river.

Results and recommendations. By using the SWATmodel it is possible to calculate the water yield and theresulting outflow of each sub-basin (Figure 5). As well asthe irrigated area, Figure 5 also shows the irrigation projectarea that used to be operational in Soviet times that could beused in coming years with some reconstruction. It is,however, obvious that additional water cannot be abstractedfrom the river itself except during the time of snow melt, e.g.in April. This surplus could be stored in some selectedplaces and used for irrigation in May or June. At present,the actual irrigation area is about 2260 ha; a similar-sizedarea could be additionally irrigated if the spring surpluswere still available during the summer.

But even this amount of water would not be sufficient tocover the growing needs of irrigated lands in future. Apossible scenario for a desirable future would be a tenfoldincrease of irrigated lands, but this could not be realisedwithout water from the NCC.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

J F M A M J Jmonth

wat

er d

isch

arge

, m

ln m

^3/m

onth

Water supply for irrigationRiver water flow

Figure 4. Water volume and discharges fro


Pobednaya River case study

Present situation and problem setting. The PobednayaRiver drains a rather flat landscape with slopes mostly lessthan 2%. It flows into the Sea of Azov in the north-east ofCrimea.

The river has been heavily modified in the past. Originally asmall watercourse (natural gulch) with a watershed area ofapproximately 40 000 ha was straightened and its beddeepened to serve as a collector for water drained fromadjacent irrigated fields. This was necessary to increase thedischarge and to avoid greater salinisation of soils thatwere to be used for irrigated agriculture in Soviet times. Atpresent, 75% of the watershed area is occupied by agriculture(around 30 000 ha), 35% of which (11 000 ha) can beirrigated; this area is equipped with irrigation and drainageinfrastructure and used to be fully irrigated in Soviet times.Unfortunately, former landscape changes did not aim atcreating ecologically useful structures; instead the river bedand banks are rather uniform and more similar to a canal thanto a river. The river bed and banks are mostly covered withreed that builds up unwanted organic sediments that aredredged out at several places from time to time. Due to theslight slopes and vegetation the current velocity in the riveris not sufficient for a natural translocation of accumulatedmud. Correspondingly, the hydromorphological assessmentsof the river itself and its floodplain delivered mostlyunfavourable results, as shown in Figure 6.

Additionally, two major discharges of untreated wastewater load the river’s water body. One is from the city ofKrasnogvardeiskoe and the other comes from a poultry farm

A S O N D05101520253035

Wat

er v

olum

e,

mln

. m^3

Water supply for human needsWater volume of the reservoir

m the Simferopol reservoir in 2008


Figure 6. Results of hydromorphological assessments of the RiverPobednaya including the nearby floodplain

Average outflow, m3/ s¹

sub-

basin

July August

1 1.91 7.98

2 2.16 8.50

3 1.81 6.32

4 1.72 5.54

6 1.59 2.95

7 1.25 1.42

Figure 5. Average water yield of the seven sub-basins in August (1998–2008) and resulting river flow at the sub-basin outlets of the main river channel(columns 1–7 in the figure and table to the left)


nearby (Roerink et al., 2009). This results in heavy riverpollution, an increase of nutrients and spread of reeds inthe Sivash that make it difficult for several rare bird speciesto find nesting places. Water quality is monitored by theregional ecological inspectorate, which takes samples foranalysis at several locations each year. Figure 7 shows the


location of sampling points and some analysis results(concentration of ammonium and BOD5).

Further downstream, water from the NCC is directlyadded to the water body (Figure 7) to improve water qualityand increase the water level in Sivash to keep the coastalareas from drying out in summer time; see photo (Figure 8).

In this way, the load of nutrients is of course not reducedand causes eutrophication, the unchecked spread of reed andother problems in the Sivash Wetlands.

Scenarios

There are unique steppe landscapes and wetlands in theSivash part of Crimea, which could be a source of businessdevelopment for the local economy (e.g. green tourism,birdwatching). And though local stakeholders appreciatetheir value in the studied river basin, they see this area asa mainly agricultural region. For that reason, in scenariosdeveloped for this case study (Figure 9), the main emphasisis on the area of cultivated land together with the area andlocation of irrigated farm fields.

Scenario 1. Area under agricultural practice stays at thelevel of 2009 (29 500 ha) due to stabilisation of the ruraleconomy, but the costs of irrigation are so high that onlybig private farms can afford it (3600 ha of irrigated lands).

Scenario 2. Various economic or sociopolitical reasonscomplicate the possibility for local farmers to irrigate fromthe NCC. This leads to collapse of irrigated agriculture and


Ammonium,mg/L

0

4

8

12

16

1 2 3 4 5 6Sampling locations

Jan-09Sep-09Nov-09

Jun-10UA norm

BOD5,

mg/LO2

-20

20

60

100

140

180

1 2 3 4 5 6Sampling locations

Jun-07Jul-07Aug-07Jan-09Sep-09Nov-09Jun-10UA norm

Figure 7. Location of the sampling points and results of water quality analyses (NH4+ and BOD5) compared with Ukrainian norms for surface waters (USSR

Ministry of Health, Chief Sanitary–Epidemiological Department, 1988)


switching to rainfed agriculture where possible (ca. 16 000ha).The rest of the area remains abandoned, which will lead toa gradual restoration of natural steppe landscapes.

Scenario 3. A favourable economic situation in Ukraineand private investment facilitate restoration of the irrigationinfrastructure and stimulate agricultural development inthe region. It leads to maximisation of irrigated areas (up

Figure 8. Dried out wetlands in the Pobednaya River estuary


to 10 950 ha) and focus on commercial crops for maximumprofit, with no regard to crop rotation or other landconservation practices.

Results and recommendations. In this study wemodelled the change of natural water flow in the river andamount of water discharge to Sivash in three scenariosdescribed above and for years with different natural waterdeficits. Figure 10 shows the modelling results for eachscenario in comparison with average actual values of yearlyriver discharge (red line shows natural discharge volume; bluethe overall discharge, including water directly added fromthe NCC).

Today water from the NCC is added to the river forecological purposes, but as we can see from Figure 10 thesame result can be achieved by increasing the area ofirrigation. On one hand, this will have an economic effect(the profitability of irrigation in Crimea has been provedby previous studies (Roerink and Zhovtonog, 2005) and,on the other, it will provide sufficient water flow in thePobednaya River, better distributed along the river coursethan in case of one point-source discharge from the NCC.

Further investigation and analysis must be carried out forevaluation of the area and location of irrigated fields in thewatershed, in order to find a balance between economic gainand positive ecological effect. To mitigate impacts from anincrease of irrigated area and to improve the ecologicalsituation in the river basin a set of environmental measuresmust be implemented.


Scenario 1. Present rate of irrigation and area under agriculture (rate of

2009).

Scenario 2. No irrigation, only rainfed agriculture and non-

agricultural land use.

Scenario 3. Maximisation of irrigated area (rate of 1990).

0 5 102.5 km

Land use

agriculture (29 500 ha)

extensive use

urban area

Irrigated area (3 660 ha)

0 5 102.5 km

Land use

rainfed agriculture

extensive use

urban area

0 5 102.5 km

Land use

agriculture (29 500 ha)

extensive use

urban area

Irrigated area (10 950 ha)

Figure 9. Maps of the Pobednaya River basin showing land-use layouts for each of three scenarios


The investigations carried out so far lead to the followingrecommendations:

1. Setting-up of buffer zones along the river: first zone––unused and planted with trees and bushes, secondzone––with unfertilised pastures; and only behind thesezones––development of drip irrigation and rainfedagriculture. This will improve the hydromorphologicalstate of the river and its floodplain.

2. Pre-treatment of waste water using already existingtechnical structures (big concrete basins located nearthe waste water discharge points) and its use forirrigation as much as possible.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

35% 60% 95%Natural water deficit

Scenario 1

Scenario 2

Scenario 3

Average natural + NCC dischargeAverage natural discharge

Wat

er d

isch

arge

, mln

. m3 /y

ear

Figure 10. Water discharge at the outlet of Pobednaya River basin simulatedunder three scenarios for years with different water deficit values


3. Use of special boats for mowing of Phragmites reedsand its use for different purposes.

CONCLUSION

The three pilot areas presented are part of Crimeanlandscapes that have been formed by humans since longertime until the present respecting human needs in the firstplace. Upcoming water related problems are due to driverssuch as population growth, lack of finance and limitedrespect for ecological and social sustainability.

Today available modelling techniques based onremote sensing and GIS help to reduce problems created inthe past and to find better solutions for the future. Variousscenarios, including those recommended by stakeholders,can be simulated and discussed with them, in accordancewith article 14 of the WFD.

Modelling helps us to understand the multitude ofimpacts that exert pressure on good ecological conditions.First, recommendations are given based on modellingresults. They can, of course, be improved in closecooperation with regional stakeholders, thus reducing futureconflict potential and also improving social sustainability.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The described study was carried out in the framework of theFP6 project ‘Water Scenarios for Europe and for Neighbouring



States’ (SCENES). The authors are thankful for the opportunityto work on the project and for the inspiration provided byall project partners from various European countries. Partof the fieldwork and GIS data creation was completed in theframework of the bilateral Flemish–Ukrainian project‘Irrigation management in support of sustainable agricultureand environment in Ukraine’ (UKRIM) (Flanders, 2009).We further wish to point out that the work would not havebeen possible to complete without the support of the followingUkrainian organisations: the Department of the EcologicalInspectorate of the North-Crimean region, the Water Manage-ment Departments of Dzhankoy and KrasnogvardeiskiyDistricts, the Salgir Interdistrict Water ManagementDepartment and the Salgir Basin Management Department.

CONFLICTS OF INTEREST

None of the authors have any conflicts of interest to declare.

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modelling multiple land- and water-use scenarios for three typical pilot areas in crimea, ukraine

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