modelling food and physical activity behaviours philippe j. giabbanelli

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Modelling food and physical activity behaviours Philippe J. Giabbanelli

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Page 1: Modelling food and physical activity behaviours Philippe J. Giabbanelli

Modelling food and physical activity behaviours

Philippe J. Giabbanelli

Page 2: Modelling food and physical activity behaviours Philippe J. Giabbanelli

PJ Giabbanelli Modelling food and physical activity behaviours 1

Themes addressed

Why would you use computational models?

Novel ways to support public health modelling

Modelling from physiology to social determinants

Page 3: Modelling food and physical activity behaviours Philippe J. Giabbanelli

PJ Giabbanelli 2

Why?

Tell me what people will do in the future!

Modelling food and physical activity behaviours

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PJ Giabbanelli 3

Why?

Epstein (JASS 11(4):12) gives 16 reasons other than prediction to build models.

Explaining

Modelling food and physical activity behaviours

To simulate far into the future, you need to understand what you have now and how it changes.

2013 2023 2043

1 - Explain 2 - Predict

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PJ Giabbanelli 4

Why?

Epstein (JASS 11(4):12) gives 16 reasons other than prediction to build models.

Explaining

“Electrostatics explains lightning,

but we cannot predict when or where the next bolt will strike.”

Modelling food and physical activity behaviours

A chaotic view of behavior change: a quantum leap for health promotionResnicow & Vaughan, IJBNPA 2006

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PJ Giabbanelli 5

Why?

Epstein (JASS 11(4):12) gives 16 reasons other than prediction to build models.

Illuminate core dynamics

We all have assumptions based on our personal experience.

Models will make these assumptions explicit and can check for inconsistencies.

Modelling food and physical activity behaviours

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PJ Giabbanelli 6

Why?

Epstein (JASS 11(4):12) gives 16 reasons other than prediction to build models.

« What if »

Imagine that you want to intervene on the built environment. Would you try to change

it and see whether it was a good idea?

Using the computer, you create a virtual environment and see how virtual people react to

changes.

Modelling food and physical activity behaviours

Page 8: Modelling food and physical activity behaviours Philippe J. Giabbanelli

And load up on antidepressants

?!

7

Page 9: Modelling food and physical activity behaviours Philippe J. Giabbanelli

Food intake Exercise

Peer behaviour

Stress

Obesity stigma

SES

PJ Giabbanelli 8Modelling food and physical activity behaviours

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From physiology to social determinants

“There is increasing evidence that social influence and social network structures are significant factors in obesity.”

Eating Exercising

R.A. Hammond, Current Opinion in Endocrinology, Diabetes and Obesity 17, 467 (2010)

Modelling food and physical activity behaviours

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PJ Giabbanelli 10

W. Rush, et al., Tech. rep NECSI 2003

Modelling food and physical activity behaviours

From physiology to social determinants

Rule: take the state shared by the majority of your friends.

But I have only 2 friends!

Well, I have 14 friends…

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PJ Giabbanelli 11

2003. Everyone has the same number of friends.

2009. Most people have few friends, few people have lots.

(cellular automaton) (complex networks)

D. Bahr, R. Browning, H. Wyatt, J. Hill, Exploiting social networks to mitigate the obesity epidemic, Obesity 17 (2009) 723-728

Modelling food and physical activity behaviours

From physiology to social determinants

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PJ Giabbanelli 12

Structure ProcessHow are individuals connected?

= who interacts with who?

How do individuals interact?

= how people influence each other?

Using a social network is key for realism.

Using a majority rule would significantly oversimplify.

Modelling food and physical activity behaviours

From physiology to social determinants

Small-world Scale-free

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PJ Giabbanelli 13Modelling food and physical activity behaviours

From physiology to social determinants

Page 15: Modelling food and physical activity behaviours Philippe J. Giabbanelli

From physiology to social determinants

PJ Giabbanelli 14Modelling food and physical activity behaviours

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PJ Giabbanelli 15

From physiology to social determinants

This example had a decent structure but modelled the process in simple ways.

How can we better represent the context that shapes food and physical activity behaviours?

Modelling food and physical activity behaviours

Page 17: Modelling food and physical activity behaviours Philippe J. Giabbanelli

From physiology to social determinants

PJ Giabbanelli 16Modelling food and physical activity behaviours

P-valuesOdds ratio

ANOVA

Besides, studies tend to speak on associations, not causations…

???

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PJ Giabbanelli 17

From physiology to social determinants

I turned to experts on obesity and asked them to evaluate the strength of these causations.

I built an expert system based on their feedback.

Modelling food and physical activity behaviours

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+

From physiology to social determinants

Modelling food and physical activity behaviours

To be expanded thanks to funding of $46K from the Provincial Health Services Authority

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From physiology to social determinants

Modelling food and physical activity behaviours

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Initialization Matching Simulation

James

Marko

Pablo

Ali

Nick

From physiology to social determinants

Modelling food and physical activity behaviours

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PJ Giabbanelli 21

SimulationInitialization Matching

Influencing Influenced

From physiology to social determinants

James

Marko

Pablo

Ali

Nick

Modelling food and physical activity behaviours

Page 23: Modelling food and physical activity behaviours Philippe J. Giabbanelli

PJ Giabbanelli 22

Initialization Matching Simulation

From physiology to social determinants

James

Marko

Pablo

Ali

Nick

Modelling food and physical activity behaviours

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PJ Giabbanelli 23

From physiology to social determinants

Modelling food and physical activity behaviours

Focusing on knowledge sharing…

Comparing food labels Cooking

healthy meals

…are you better off following your friends or random people?

Page 25: Modelling food and physical activity behaviours Philippe J. Giabbanelli

From physiology to social determinants

←probability of passing on knowledge→

↑Intensity of obesity

PJ Giabbanelli 24Modelling food and physical activity behaviours

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From physiology to social determinants

PJ Giabbanelli 25Modelling food and physical activity behaviours

What about behavioural responses to price fluctuations in food?

What about the cost-effectiveness of interventions?

Page 27: Modelling food and physical activity behaviours Philippe J. Giabbanelli

From physiology to social determinants

PJ Giabbanelli 26Modelling food and physical activity behaviours

Individuals

Socio-demographic variables Decision making

age gender education location

beliefs price

taste

accessibility

Influencability by peers

Food advertisement

peers

FAB Social network theory

Pasadena, CA (USA)

Parameter

Data sources

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From physiology to social determinants

PJ Giabbanelli 27Modelling food and physical activity behaviours

Junk tax

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www.spaplay.com

Novel ways to support public health modelling

PJ Giabbanelli 28Modelling food and physical activity behaviours

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Game activities

Recommender System

Practitioner’s office

Interacting with peers

Data about relevant psycho-social factors

Data about similar peers

provides

improves

Suggesting relevant questions

Suggesting similar peersincreases

increases

Conducting a targetted psycho-social assessment of patients queries

refines

Patients’ information

amel

iora

tes

providesCompleting surveys

contributes to

Self monitoring

Builds on an evidence base to offer

Improving health management

PJ Giabbanelli 29Modelling food and physical activity behaviours

Page 31: Modelling food and physical activity behaviours Philippe J. Giabbanelli

Getting data

Choosing a type of model

Creating a conceptual model

Creating & calibraing a computational model

Analysing simulations

Translate findings to stakeholders

Novel ways to support public health modelling

PJ Giabbanelli 30Modelling food and physical activity behaviours

Page 32: Modelling food and physical activity behaviours Philippe J. Giabbanelli

Getting data

Choosing a type of model

Creating a conceptual model

Creating & calibraing a computational model

Analysing simulations

Translate findings to stakeholders

Novel ways to support public health modelling

PJ Giabbanelli 31Modelling food and physical activity behaviours

Page 33: Modelling food and physical activity behaviours Philippe J. Giabbanelli

Getting data

Choosing a type of model

Creating a conceptual model

Creating & calibraing a computational model

Analysing simulations

Translate findings to stakeholders

? ? ?

The support for modelling decreases as you progress to the more advanced stages

We need to see how existing tools support this process, and develop

guidelines to fill in the gaps

Novel ways to support public health modelling

PJ Giabbanelli 32Modelling food and physical activity behaviours

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1. PJ Giabbanelli, T Torsney-Weir, VK Mago. A fuzzy cognitive map of the psychosocial determinants of obesity. Applied Soft Computing 12(12):3711-3724, 2012.

2. PJ Giabbanelli, A Alimadad, V Dabbaghian, DT Finegood. Modeling the influence of social networks and environment on energy balance and obesity. Journal of Computational Science 3, 17-27, 2012.

3. PJ Giabbanelli, P Jackson, DT Finegood. Modeling the joint effect of social determinants and peers on obesity. Intelligent Systems Reference Library (Springer) 52, 2013.

4. PJ Giabbanelli, P Deck, L Andres, T Schiphorst, DT Finegood. Supporting a participant-centric management of obesity via a self-improving health game. Digital Human Modeling and Applications in Health, Safety, Ergonomics and Risk Management, Lecture Notes in Computer Science 8025: 189-196, 2013.

5. PJ Giabbanelli. A novel framework for complex networks and chronic diseases. Studies in Computational Intelligence 424:207-215, 2013.

Dr Alimadad, Provincial Health Services Authority (CAN)

Dr MagoTroy University (USA)

Dr Jackson Simon Fraser U (CAN)

Dr Finegood, President & CEOMichael Smith Foundation For

Health Research (CAN)

Dr CrutzenMaastricht U (Netherlands)

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PJ Giabbanelli Modelling food and physical activity behaviours

We know:

We do not know: • One’s threshold of influence to trigger changes

• The structure of the population

• By how much one’s food consumption can change

• By how much population weight changes in a year

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PJ Giabbanelli

Simulating interventions on food intake and exercise for different cases of obese patients.

From physiology to social determinants

Modelling food and physical activity behaviours

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PJ Giabbanelli Modelling food and physical activity behaviours

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PJ Giabbanelli Modelling food and physical activity behaviours