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South Florida Natural Resources CenterEverglades National Park

Modeling Vegetation SuccessionDynamics to Evaluate Landscape-

Level Response to Everglades Restoration

Steve Friedman, Leonard Pearlstine, Matthew Supernaw

South Florida Natural Resources CenterEverglades National ParkGEER July 12 – 16, 2010


Everglades Landscape Vegetation Succession (ELVeS)

CERP Restoration Planning and Assessment

Temporally Dynamic Wildlife Habitat Layers

Climate and Sea Level Change Scenarios

ISSUES


A: Probability based modeling• Uses mean / standard deviation of hydrological optima

(expert workshops (5) – meetings)

B: Conditional Inference Tree • Uses multivariate data set

Vegetation classificationSoil nutrients - physical propertiesEDEN hydrological metrics

Model Approach


Developed and programmed in Java on a Linux Computer – Runs on all platforms, NVIDIA CUDAand Cloud Computing

Inputs Input.netCDF file, Outputs Community Probabilities

Spreadsheet User Interface

Open Source Software

EDEN400 m

SFWMM Variable Resolution

TIME 500 m

ModScenario modeling based upon varying hydrological metrics and interfacing with sea surface tidal estimation schemes

South Florida Natural Resources CenterEverglades National ParkHydrologic Model Domains


* Current version only considers ridge-slough freshwater marsh communities

Community Common Species

Muhly grass Muhlenbergia capillaris Panicum tenerum Centella asiatica Symphyotrichum bracei Pluchea rosea Rhynchospora microcarpa Solidago stricta Cassytha filiformis Schizachyrium rhizomatum Cladium jamaicensePolygala grandiflora

Sawgrass Cladium jamaicense

Wet Prairie Eleocharis cellulosa Bacopa caroliniana Rhynchospora tracyi Panicum hemitomon Sagittaria lancifolia

Open Water - Lily Slough Nymphaea,Utricularia

Cattail Typha domingensis Polygonum hydropiperoides Salix caroliniana

Wetland Communities

Alpha Version 1.0Hydrology Dynamics1) EDEN, SFWMM, TIME, RSM2) CERP Scenarios

Phosphorus DynamicsInitial beta model based on static P levels

Alternatives for Phosphorus1) Examining TaRSE model for

integration (Jawitz et. al. 2008) –a spatially explicit dynamic model

2) Nutrient gradient scenarios

Hydro.ncNutrient.nc

Hydrological and Nutrient Preprocessors

Fires

Storms

Calculate Instantaneous Probabilities

Sorted Ranked Probabilities

TimeStep

Veg_Out.nc

Temporal Lags

Future Components

VisualizationsR – StatsDSS

South Florida Natural Resources CenterEverglades National ParkThe Model

Normal Curve Definitions

Logistic Curve Definitions

South Florida Natural Resources CenterEverglades National ParkUser Interface

Annual Water Depth

Community Temporal Probabilities

&Collective Assessment

South Florida Natural Resources CenterEverglades National ParkSolutions

Improving data parameterization

EDEN Hydrological

MetricsVegetation

Dry Periods

WetPeriods

Veg – Water-Nutrient

Unpublished Soil survey data provided by Newman and Osborne

South Florida Natural Resources CenterEverglades National ParkNew Approach

Tota

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Mea

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Exploratory Data Analysis

Veg Communities Veg Communities Veg Communities


Advantage: Eliminates over fitting problem and selection bias of covariates with multiple splits as implemented in Random Forest methods. Algorithm splits covariate selection and splitting criterion into 2 steps

Approach: Recursive Binary Partitioning1) Global null hypothesis of independence between any covariate and response2) Two disjoint sets (left and right branches) are identified defined as the splitting

criteria3) Recursively repeat steps a 1 and 2 until a final terminal node is reached

Solution is reached when the global null hypothesis cannot be rejected using a specified conditional nominal alpha level 0.95 at each node

Conditional Inference Trees

12 3

4

5 6 7

8

9 10

11

12 14

Hothorn, Hornik & Zeileis. 2006. Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics 15: 651 - 674

Graphical display identifies each binary decision, hypothesis probability scores, parameter splitting value, and terminal node probability scores

South Florida Natural Resources CenterEverglades National ParkELVeS Ctree Model


South Florida Natural Resources CenterEverglades National ParkTree Branch Composition


Community ClassificationTerminal Node Classification

Community Similarity Analysis

N

Cattail - Slough

Cattail - Slough

Cattail – Slough Sawgrass Ridge

Cattail –Sawgrass Ridge - Slough

Cattail –Sawgrass Ridge

Cattail - Cypress MarshSawgrass Ridge

Cattail - Tree Island

Tree Island - Cattail

Tree Island – Slough

Tree Island – Sawgrass Plain

Sawgrass Ridge - Slough

Sawgrass Plain Cattails

Sawgrass Ridge – Wet Prairie

Slough Sawgrass Ridge

Sawgrass Plain Slough

Sawgrass Plain Slough Sawgrass Ridge Slough

Sawgrass Ridge Slough Sawgrass Ridge Wet Prairie Marl Prairie

Wet Prairie

Wet Prairie Marl Prairie

Wet Prairie Sawgrass Ridge

Wet Prairie Marl Prairie

Wet Prairie Cypress Marsh

Wet Prairie Tree Island Wet Prairie

Tree Island

Cypress MarshWet Prairie

Wet Prairie Sawgrass Ridge

South Florida Natural Resources CenterEverglades National ParkMultidimensional Scaling

South Florida Natural Resources CenterEverglades National ParkSuspensefull

Conversion of probabilities to mapping formatWe’re still working on that can’t give away all of the

conclusions at the same time

Model Refinement (mangroves, saline prairies, sea grasses, pine lands,

hammock communities)

Validation – REMap Soil Vegetation Survey

Integration of Temporal Lags Feedback

Fire and Hurricanes

Michael Ross Florida International UniversityJay Sah Florida International UniversityDan Childers Florida International UniversityJennifer Richards Florida International UniversityDaniel Gann Florida International UniversityTom Givnish University of WisconsinJimi Sadle Everglades National ParkJohn Volin University of Connecticut Sue Newman South Florida Water Management DistrictScott Hagerthey South Florida Water Management DistrictVic Engle South Florida Natural Resource Center – ENPJordan Barr South Florida Natural Resource Center – ENPTodd Osborne University of Florida

South Florida Natural Resources CenterEverglades National ParkWorkshops and Support

modeling vegetation succession dynamics to evaluate ... · pdf filemodeling vegetation...

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