modeling the spread of influence on the blogosphere
DESCRIPTION
Modeling the Spread of Influence on the Blogosphere. Akshay Java, Pranam Kolari, Tim Finin, and Tim Oates UMBC Tech Report 04/12/06. Outline. What is influence? Basic Influence Model Influence models for the blogosphere Results Conclusions. What is Influence?. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Modeling the Spread of Influence on the Blogosphere Akshay Java, Pranam Kolari, Tim Finin, and Tim Oates
UMBC Tech Report
04/12/06
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Outline
What is influence? Basic Influence Model Influence models for the blogosphere Results Conclusions
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What is Influence?
Main Entry: in·flu·ence Pronunciation: 'in-"flü-&n(t)s, esp Southern in-'Function: nounEtymology: Middle English, from Middle French, from Medieval Latin influentia, from Latin influent-, influens, present participle of influere to flow in, from in- + fluere to flow -- more at FLUID1 a : an ethereal fluid held to flow from the stars and to affect the actions of humans b : an emanation of occult power held to derive from stars2 : an emanation of spiritual or moral force
3 a : the act or power of producing an effect without apparent exertion of force or direct exercise of command b : corrupt interference with authority for personal gain4 : the power or capacity of causing an effect in indirect or intangible ways : SWAY5 : one that exerts influence- under the influence : affected by alcohol : DRUNK <was arrested for driving under the influence>
NOT This Kind of Influence! ;-)
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Motivation
Influence models studied for cocitation graphs David Kempe, Jon Kleinberg, Eva Tardos Maximizing the
Spread of Influence through a Social Network, KDD 2003
Applies to blogs also. Recent Examples: Startups, Microsoft Origami, Walmart,DoD
GOAL: Predict influential blogs Target nodes to help achieve a “Tipping Point”*
* The Tipping Point: Malcolm Gladwell
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Influence on the Blogosphere
Post was
Influenced by
NPR, eWeek
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Influence Models for the Blogosphere
Blog Graph Influence Graph
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Wu,v = Cu,v / dv
U
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U links to V => U is Influenced by V
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Basic Influence Models
Linear Threshold Model
Σ bvw ≥ θv
w is the active neighbor of v
Cascade Model Pvw - probability with which a
node can activate each of its
neighbors, independent of
history.
Influence Graph
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Node Selection Heuristics
Inlinks Easily spammed
Centrality Expensive to compute for every large graphs
PageRank Requires link information However, is easy to compute
Greedy Heuristic Computationally expensive However performs better
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Effect of Splogs on Node Selection(indegree vs pagerank)
Almost 54% of the links were from splogs/failed to splogs/failed!
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Effect of Splogs on Inlinksrank URL #inlinks
1 http://www.livejournal.com/users/pics 3072
2 http://www.boingboing.net 2191
3 http://www.dailykos.com 2017
4 http://www.engadget.com 1942
5 http://profiles.blogdrive.com 1526
6 http://michellemalkin.com 1242
7 http://www.opinionjournal.com 1232
8 http://instapundit.com 1187
9 http://slashdot.org 1124
10 http://www.powerlineblog.com 909
11 http://www.huffingtonpost.com/theblog 905
12 http://corner.nationalreview.com 853
13 http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com 733
14 http://www.captainsquartersblog.com/mt 728
15 http://espn-presents2003-world-seriesofpoker.blogspot.com 711
16 http://3-world-series-of-poker-online-3.blogspot.com 711
17 http://worldseries-of-poker-network-tv-show.blogspot.com 711
18 http://wsop2003.blogspot.com 711
19 http://wsop-bracelet1.blogspot.com 711
20 http://worldseries-poker.blogspot.com 711
21 http://worldseries-of-poker-official.blogspot.com 711
22 http://worldseries-of-poker-wsop.blogspot.com 711
23 http://world-series-of-poker-nocd-patch66.blogspot.com 711
24 http://4-world-series-of-poker-past-winners.blogspot.com 711
25 http://7-wsop-games-7.blogspot.com 711
Tightly Knit
Community
of Splog
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Influence Models(without splog detection)
Number of nodes selected
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Influence Models (After splog removal)
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Influence Models(w.r.t. Technorati Ranks)
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Conlusions
Influence models can be applied to blogs not just cocitation graphs
Splogs are a problem Greedy heuristics work well, pagerank is an
inexpensive approximation
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Ideas for CIKM 06
Good or bad influence? Associating sentiment with links.
Finding influential blogs for a topic. (SVM accuracy 75-85%)
Community structure of blogs.
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Questions Comments/ Feedback? Thanks! Acknowledgement:
Buzzmetrics/Blogpulse for the dataset.