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  • MODELING DEFORESTATION AT THE LANDSCAPE LEVEL FROM ANALYSIS AT THE PROPERTY-FARM LEVEL: FINDINGS AND FORECAST FROM THE ALTAMIRA CASE Bruce Boucek, Stephen
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MODELING DEFORESTATION AT THE LANDSCAPE LEVEL FROM ANALYSIS AT THE PROPERTY-FARM LEVEL: FINDINGS AND FORECAST FROM THE ALTAMIRA CASE Bruce Boucek, Stephen McCracken, and Eduardo Brondizio Indiana University / ACT, USA Contact Information: Bruce Boucek [email protected] Stephen McCracken [email protected] Eduardo Brondizio [email protected] Introduction: Analysis of landscape change is often carried out at the aggregate level. In the particular context of frontier settlement it is useful to think about the landscape as a mosaic of farms initiated during different periods and farm formation and development as a long process taking place over a couple of generations. A demographic approach to understanding land-use patterns in agricultural frontier areas is sensitive to the importance of period, cohort, and age effects as successive waves of colonists migrate to, occupy, and transform their forest plots into family farms. In previous analyses we conceptually and empirically examined these interrelated effects associated with farm development in the region. In general, “cohort” differences in land-use trajectories are quite small while “period” effects are more noticeable. These are primarily associated with in-migration, credit policies and boom-bust cycle of cocoa. Perhaps, the strongest, underlying patterns of land-use are those associated with “age” as individual families slowly develop their farm property. In the present poster presentation we focus on the overall pattern of deforestation at the farm level associated with time, or “age” of the farm. Questions: What is the pattern of mean annual rates of deforestation associated with “age” on a typical frontier farm property? What are the spatial patterns of observed and expected levels of deforestation among these frontier farms? Is there a spatial pattern to their differences (a residual map)? What amount of forest can we expect in this area in the years 2010 and 2020? Methods: The map of observed pace of deforestation was constructed by multiple overlay of classified remotely sensed images (1970, 1973, 1975 & 76, 1978 & 1979, 1985, 1991, and 1996) for the study area. A property grid containing 3,913 farm lots was used as an overlay for extracting information on farm area, and the area deforested between the date of each remotely sensed image. This information was used to calculate mean annual rates of deforestation for each property for each period of observation. We also used this information to identify the period of initial occupation of farm properties in our study area. We used a 5 hectare area of deforestation as the signal of settlement and these cohorts of farm settlement are presented spatially in figure 3. The data extracted for each farm property, for each period between remotely sensed data, was reorganized by time (years) since initial occupation to begin our analysis of pattern of deforestation associated with age of farm. Trends in Deforestation by Yrs. of Occupation, by Cohort of Occupation Period of Initial Occupation: Pre-1970 Mean Annual Rates of Deforestion Years Since Initial Occupation yrslot 0 5 10 15 20 25 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Period of Initial Occupation: 1970-73 Mean Annual Rates of Deforestion Years Since Initial Occupation yrslot 0 5 10 15 20 25 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Period of Initial Occupation: 1973-76 Mean Annual Rates of Deforestion Years Since Initial Occupation yrslot 0 5 10 15 20 25 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Period of Initial Occupation: 1976-79 Mean Annual Rates of Deforestion Years Since Initial Occupation yrslot 0 5 10 15 20 25 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Period of Initial Occupation: 1979-85 Mean Annual Rates of Deforestion Years Since Initial Occupation yrslot 0 5 10 15 20 25 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Period of Initial Occupation: 1985+ Mean Annual Rates of Deforestion Years Since Initial Occupation yrslot 0 5 10 15 20 25 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Mean Annual Rates of Deforestation by Time Since Arrival Mean Annual Rate of Deforestation, 1970-96 Years of Occupation on Farm 1 5 10 15 20 25 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 P redicted D eforestation O v er Tim e (Farm Level) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 Tim e (Years)S ince Farm O ccu pation ForestR em aining (H ectares) 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00 5.50 6.00 6.50 P redicted A nnual R ate ofD eforestation Forest D efRate Forestin S tudy A rea -O bserved,1970-96 & P redicted for 2010 & 2020 B ased on Farm LevelP rojection 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 1970 1973 1976 1979 1985 1991 1996 2010 2020 Year H ectares (Thousands) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 P ercent F orestA rea % F orest Figure 1: The Observed Pace of Deforestation among Frontier Farms along the TransAmazon Highway, Km 20-140, 1970-96 Table 1:O LS Estim ate ofDeforestation (M oderate M easure ofD eforestation, ForestFiltered forSS3) M ean A nnual Rate ofD eforestation Coef. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval] Y earson Lot -1.102 -12.632 0.000 -1.272 -0.931 Y ears-Squared 0.100 6.963 0.000 0.072 0.128 Y ears-Cubed -0.004 -4.815 0.000 -0.006 -0.003 Y ears-Q uadrupled 0.000 3.742 0.000 0.000 0.000 Constant 6.767 45.719 0.000 6.477 7.057 N um berofobs= 13528 F( 4, 13523)= 595.33 R-squared = 0.1497 RootM SE = 3.1324 Prob > F = 0.0000 A djR-squared = 0.1495 Figure 2: Property Grid Overlay Figure 3 Figure 4 Figure 5 Results & Discussion: Scatter plots of the mean annual rate of deforestation by time since occupation on the farm property are presented for each cohort of occupation in Figure 4. Note the great variation in rates. In Table 1 we present results from ordinary least-squared regression of our estimates of mean annual rates of deforestation on age, age-squared, age-cubed, and age-quadrupled to provide a predicted pattern of deforestation. This fitted regression line is presented in Figure 5. Again we note the great variation in observed rates above the estimated pattern. In general the age pattern of deforestation is large during the initial years (approximating 6 % per year). By the end of the 5 th year average rates of deforestation are close to 3% per year and by the 10 th year have fallen to less than 2 percent and level off at approximately 1.6%. The implication of this pattern of rates is represented for the “AVERAGE FARM” of 100 hectares in Figure 6. After 25 years we can expect the “average” farm to have slightly more than half of their farm in forest. Taking these regression results we calculated predicted levels of deforestation in 1996 for each property based on initial period of occupation to compare our results with observed levels of deforestation. In Figures 7 and 8 we present these results The map of residuals illustrates some interesting spatial patterns. Areas with dark blue shading represent farms with smaller-than-expected deforestation given the length of settlement while dark red shading represent area with greater levels of deforestation. Visual inspection suggest that patterns of deforestation are also related to issues of distance, topography, and agglomeration of farms into cattle ranches. Note the higher-than-expected levels of deforestation near the sugar cane refinery near Medicilandia, and the lower than expected deforestation in the distant, more remote, farms in the western section of the study area. Similarly we note lower levels of deforestation a few areas at the extreme southern fringe of the study area that have rugged terrain. In subsequent analysis we will examine how distance, topography, and particular types of land-cover following deforestation affect the trajectory of deforestation over time. In Figure 9 we present landscape level estimates from our projections, at the farm level, to the years 2010 and 2020. These results indicate a slowing of deforestation in this 30-year old agricultural frontier. Figure 6 Figure 7 Figure 8 Figure 9

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  • MODELING DEFORESTATION AT THE LANDSCAPE LEVEL FROM ANALYSIS AT THE PROPERTY-FARM LEVEL:FINDINGS AND FORECAST FROM THE ALTAMIRA CASEBruce Boucek, Stephen McCracken, and Eduardo BrondizioIndiana University / ACT, USAContact Information:Bruce [email protected]

    Stephen McCracken [email protected]

    Eduardo [email protected]: Analysis of landscape change is often carried out at the aggregate level. In the particular context of frontier settlement it is useful to think about the landscape as a mosaic of farms initiated during different periods and farm formation and development as a long process taking place over a couple of generations. A demographic approach to understanding land-use patterns in agricultural frontier areas is sensitive to the importance of period, cohort, and age effects as successive waves of colonists migrate to, occupy, and transform their forest plots into family farms. In previous analyses we conceptually and empirically examined these interrelated effects associated with farm development in the region. In general, cohort differences in land-use trajectories are quite small while period effects are more noticeable. These are primarily associated with in-migration, credit policies and boom-bust cycle of cocoa. Perhaps, the strongest, underlying patterns of land-use are those associated with age as individual families slowly develop their farm property. In the present poster presentation we focus on the overall pattern of deforestation at the farm level associated with time, or age of the farm.

    Questions: What is the pattern of mean annual rates of deforestation associated with age on a typical frontier farm property? What are the spatial patterns of observed and expected levels of deforestation among these frontier farms? Is there a spatial pattern to their differences (a residual map)? What amount of forest can we expect in this area in the years 2010 and 2020?Methods: The map of observed pace of deforestation was constructed by multiple overlay of classified remotely sensed images (1970, 1973, 1975 & 76, 1978 & 1979, 1985, 1991, and 1996) for the study area. A property grid containing 3,913 farm lots was used as an overlay for extracting information on farm area, and the area deforested between the date of each remotely sensed image. This information was used to calculate mean annual rates of deforestation for each property for each period of observation. We also used this information to identify the period of initial occupation of farm properties in our study area. We used a 5 hectare area of deforestation as the signal of settlement and these cohorts of farm settlement are presented spatially in figure 3. The data extracted for each farm property, for each period between remotely sensed data, was reorganized by time (years) since initial occupation to begin our analysis of pattern of deforestation associated with age of farm.Figure 1: The Observed Pace of Deforestation among Frontier Farms along the TransAmazon Highway, Km 20-140, 1970-96Figure 2: Property Grid OverlayFigure 3Figure 4Figure 5Results & Discussion: Scatter plots of the mean annual rate of deforestation by time since occupation on the farm property are presented for each cohort of occupation in Figure 4. Note the great variation in rates. In Table 1 we present results from ordinary least-squared regression of our estimates of mean annual rates of deforestation on age, age-squared, age-cubed, and age-quadrupled to provide a predicted pattern of deforestation. This fitted regression line is presented in Figure 5. Again we note the great variation in observed rates above the estimated pattern. In general the age pattern of deforestation is large during the initial years (approximating 6 % per year). By the end of the 5th year average rates of deforestation are close to 3% per year and by the 10th year have fallen to less than 2 percent and level off at approximately 1.6%. The implication of this pattern of rates is represented for the AVERAGE FARM of 100 hectares in Figure 6. After 25 years we can expect the average farm to have slightly more than half of their farm in forest.

    Taking these regression results we calculated predicted levels of deforestation in 1996 for each property based on initial period of occupation to compare our results with observed levels of deforestation. In Figures 7 and 8 we present these results The map of residuals illustrates some interesting spatial patterns. Areas with dark blue shading represent farms with smaller-than-expected deforestation given the length of settlement while dark red shading represent area with greater levels of deforestation. Visual inspection suggest that patterns of deforestation are also related to issues of distance, topography, and agglomeration of farms into cattle ranches. Note the higher-than-expected levels of deforestation near the sugar cane refinery near Medicilandia, and the lower than expected deforestation in the distant, more remote, farms in the western section of the study area. Similarly we note lower levels of deforestation a few areas at the extreme southern fringe of the study area that have rugged terrain. In subsequent analysis we will examine how distance, topography, and particular types of land-cover following deforestation affect the trajectory of deforestation over time. In Figure 9 we present landscape level estimates from our projections, at the farm level, to the years 2010 and 2020. These results indicate a slowing of deforestation in this 30-year old agricultural frontier.Figure 6Figure 7Figure 8Figure 9

    PredDefRate

    1005.7832654

    94.21673464.9785548

    89.52610283724.314271

    85.6637041453.7719028

    82.43255248983.334247

    79.68404758142.9854084

    77.30515333142.7107998

    75.20956538952.497142

    73.33147574422.3324638

    71.62104561842.206102

    70.04101229862.1087014

    68.56405649172.0322148

    67.17068758821.969903

    65.84749019831.9163348

    64.58563182871.867387

    63.37956813611.8202444

    62.22590509631.7733998

    61.12239101981.726654

    60.06701881031.6811158

    59.05722266651.639202

    58.08915549141.6046374

    57.15703517711.5824548

    56.25255093041.578995

    55.36432596381.6019068

    54.47744106141.660147

    &A

    Page &P

    Forest

    DefRate

    Time (Years) Since Farm Occupation

    Forest Remaining (Hectares)

    Predicted Annual Rate of Deforestation

    Predicted Deforestation Over Time (Farm Level)

    TrendsMod

    1005.7612537

    94.21673464.931506

    89.52610283724.2549469

    85.6637041453.71022

    82.43255248983.2775505

    79.68404758142.9387452

    77.30515333142.6771925

    75.20956538952.4778624

    73.33147574422.3273065

    71.62104561842.213658

    70.04101229862.1266317

    68.56405649172.057524

    67.17068758821.9992129

    65.84749019831.946158

    64.58563182871.8944005

    63.37956813611.8415632

    62.22590509631.7868505

    61.12239101981.7310484

    60.06701881031.6765245

    59.05722266651.627228

    58.08915549141.5886897

    57.15703517711.568022

    56.25255093041.5739189

    55.36432596381.616656

    54.47744106141.62

    52.71586689061.62

    51.87241302041.62

    &A

    Page &P

    Forest

    DefRate

    Time (Years) Since Farm Occupation

    Forest Remaining (Hectares)

    Predicted Annual Rate of Deforestation

    Predicted Deforestation Over Time (Farm Level)

    Rates

    CONSERVATIVE MEASURE of DEFORESTATION (ie Incl. SS3)ESTIMATEDLife TableSET UP FOR GRAPH

    Constantyryrs-sqyrs-cuyrs-qdRATE

    6.748222-1.0520130.0906321-0.00363020.0000545HectaresForest

    DefRateYears100100ForestDefRatePercentPercent

    16.748222-1.0520130.0906321-0.00363020.00005455.7815.7894.220100.005.7833ForestDeforest

    26.748222-2.1040260.3625284-0.02904160.0008724.9824.6989.53194.224.978601000

    36.748222-3.1560390.8156889-0.09801540.00441454.3133.8685.66289.534.31432.587.594903491112.4050965089

    46.748222-4.2080521.4501136-0.23233280.0139523.7743.2382.43385.663.77198.572.476260681327.5237393187

    56.748222-5.2600652.2658025-0.4537750.03406253.3352.7579.68482.433.334214.563.982599982436.0174000176

    66.748222-6.3120783.2627556-0.78412320.0706322.9962.3877.31579.682.985417.560.594704915139.4052950849

    76.748222-7.3640914.4409729-1.24515860.13085452.7172.1075.21677.312.710820.557.623095334342.3769046657

    86.748222-8.4161045.8004544-1.85866240.2232322.5081.8873.33775.212.497123.554.920883512645.0791164874

    96.748222-9.4681177.3412001-2.64641580.35757452.3391.7171.62873.332.332525.552.294139955547.7058600445

    106.748222-10.520139.06321-3.63020.5452.21101.5870.04971.622.2061

    116.748222-11.57214310.9664841-4.83179620.79793452.11111.4868.561070.042.1087

    126.748222-12.62415613.0510224-6.27298561.1301122.03121.3967.171168.562.0322

    136.748222-13.67616915.3168249-7.97554941.55657451.97131.3265.851267.171.9699

    146.748222-14.72818217.7638916-9.96126882.0936721.92141.2664.591365.851.9163

    156.748222-15.78019520.3922225-12.2519252.75906251.87151.2163.381464.591.8674

    166.748222-16.83220823.2018176-14.86929923.5717121.82161.1562.231563.381.8202

    176.748222-17.88422126.1926769-17.83517264.55189451.77171.1061.121662.231.7734

    186.748222-18.93623429.3648004-21.17132645.7211921.73181.0660.071761.121.7267

    196.748222-19.98824732.7181881-24.89954187.10249451.68191.0159.061860.071.6811

    206.748222-21.0402636.25284-29.04168.721.64200.9758.091959.061.6392

    216.748222-22.09227339.9687561-33.619282210.59921451.60210.9357.162058.091.6046

    226.748222-23.14428643.8659364-38.654369612.7669521.58220.9056.252157.161.5825

    236.748222-24.19629947.9443809-44.168643415.25133451.58230.8955.362256.251.5790

    246.748222-25.24831252.2040896-50.183884818.0817921.60240.8954.482355.361.5790

    256.748222-26.30032556.6450625-56.72187521.28906251.66250.9053.572454.481.5790

    1.6260.8652.722552.721.5790

    1.6270.8451.872651.871.5790

    MODERATE MEASURE of DEFORESTATION (ieESTIMATEDLife TableSET UP FOR GRAPH

    Constantyryrs-sqyrs-cuyrs-qdRATE

    6.767128-1.1019790.1002572-0.00421840.0000659HectaresForest

    DefRateYears100100ForestDefRatePercentPercent

    16.767128-1.1019790.1002572-0.00421840.00006595.7615.7694.240100.005.76ForestDeforest

    26.767128-2.2039580.4010288-0.03374720.00105444.9324.6589.59194.224.9301000

    36.767128-3.3059370.9023148-0.11389680.00533794.2533.8185.78289.534.252.587.594903491112.4050965089

    46.767128-4.4079161.6041152-0.26997760.01687043.7143.1882.60385.663.718.572.476260681327.5237393187

    56.767128-5.5098952.50643-0.52730.04118753.2852.7179.89482.433.2814.563.982599982436.0174000176

    66.767128-6.6118743.6092592-0.91117440.08540642.9462.3577.54579.682.9417.560.594704915139.4052950849

    76.767128-7.7138534.9126028-1.44691120.15822592.6872.0875.47677.312.6820.557.623095334342.3769046657

    86.767128-8.8158326.4164608-2.15982080.26992642.4881.8773.60775.212.4823.554.920883512645.0791164874

    96.767128-9.9178118.1208332-3.07521360.43236992.3391.7171.88873.332.3325.552.294139955547.7058600445

    106.767128-11.0197910.02572-4.21840.6592.21101.5970.29971.622.21

    116.767128-12.12176912.1311212-5.61469040.96484192.13111.4968.801070.042.13

    126.767128-13.22374814.4370368-7.28939521.36650242.06121.4267.381168.562.06

    136.767128-14.32572716.9434668-9.26782481.88216992.00131.3566.031267.172.00

    146.767128-15.42770619.6504112-11.57528962.53161441.95141.2964.751365.851.95

    156.767128-16.52968522.55787-14.23713.33618751.89151.2363.521464.591.89

    166.767128-17.63166425.6658432-17.27856644.31882241.84161.1762.351563.381.84

    176.767128-18.73364328.9743308-20.72499925.50403391.79171.1161.241662.231.79

    186.767128-19.83562232.4833328-24.60170886.91791841.73181.0660.181761.121.73

    196.767128-20.93760136.1928492-28.93400568.58815391.68191.0159.171860.071.68

    206.767128-22.0395840.10288-33.747210.5441.63200.9658.211959.061.63

    216.767128-23.14155944.2134252-39.066602412.81629791.59210.9257.282058.091.59

    226.767128-24.24353848.5244848-44.917523215.43747041.57220.9056.382157.161.57

    236.767128-25.34551753.0360588-51.325272818.44152191.57230.8955.502256.251.57

    246.767128-26.44749657.7481472-58.315161621.86403841.62240.9054.602355.361.62

    256.767128-27.54947562.66075-65.912525.74218751.62250.8853.712454.481.62

    1.62260.8752.842552.721.62

    1.62270.8651.992651.871.62

    Sheet2

    Sheet3

    PredDefRate

    1005.7832654

    94.21673464.9785548

    89.52610283724.314271

    85.6637041453.7719028

    82.43255248983.334247

    79.68404758142.9854084

    77.30515333142.7107998

    75.20956538952.497142

    73.33147574422.3324638

    71.62104561842.206102

    70.04101229862.1087014

    68.56405649172.0322148

    67.17068758821.969903

    65.84749019831.9163348

    64.58563182871.867387

    63.37956813611.8202444

    62.22590509631.7733998

    61.12239101981.726654

    60.06701881031.6811158

    59.05722266651.639202

    58.08915549141.6046374

    57.15703517711.5824548

    56.25255093041.578995

    55.36432596381.6019068

    54.47744106141.660147

    &A

    Page &P

    Forest

    DefRate

    Time (Years) Since Farm Occupation

    Forest Remaining (Hectares)

    Predicted Annual Rate of Deforestation

    Predicted Deforestation Over Time (Farm Level)

    TrendsMod

    1005.7612537

    94.21673464.931506

    89.52610283724.2549469

    85.6637041453.71022

    82.43255248983.2775505

    79.68404758142.9387452

    77.30515333142.6771925

    75.20956538952.4778624

    73.33147574422.3273065

    71.62104561842.213658

    70.04101229862.1266317

    68.56405649172.057524

    67.17068758821.9992129

    65.84749019831.946158

    64.58563182871.8944005

    63.37956813611.8415632

    62.22590509631.7868505

    61.12239101981.7310484

    60.06701881031.6765245

    59.05722266651.627228

    58.08915549141.5886897

    57.15703517711.568022

    56.25255093041.5739189

    55.36432596381.616656

    54.47744106141.62

    52.71586689061.62

    51.87241302041.62

    &A

    Page &P

    Forest

    DefRate

    Time (Years) Since Farm Occupation

    Forest Remaining (Hectares)

    Predicted Annual Rate of Deforestation

    Predicted Deforestation Over Time (Farm Level)

    Forest ARea

    383.0883299.7396432154

    375.6783297.8103994415

    357.9803293.2026050675

    314.1353281.7872618464

    284.0873273.9640611826

    252.9833265.8659237542

    213.7963255.6633224358

    195.6040250.9268337032

    166.6445243.3870313994

    &A

    Page &P

    Forest Area

    % Forest

    Year

    Hectares (Thousands)

    Percent

    Forest in Study Area - Observed, 1970-96& Predicted for 2010 & 2020Based on Farm Level Projection

    Rates

    CONSERVATIVE MEASURE of DEFORESTATION (ie Incl. SS3)ESTIMATEDLife TableSET UP FOR GRAPH

    Constantyryrs-sqyrs-cuyrs-qdRATE

    6.748222-1.0520130.0906321-0.00363020.0000545HectaresForest

    DefRateYears100100ForestDefRatePercentPercent

    16.748222-1.0520130.0906321-0.00363020.00005455.7815.7894.220100.005.7833ForestDeforest

    26.748222-2.1040260.3625284-0.02904160.0008724.9824.6989.53194.224.978601000

    36.748222-3.1560390.8156889-0.09801540.00441454.3133.8685.66289.534.31432.587.594903491112.4050965089

    46.748222-4.2080521.4501136-0.23233280.0139523.7743.2382.43385.663.77198.572.476260681327.5237393187

    56.748222-5.2600652.2658025-0.4537750.03406253.3352.7579.68482.433.334214.563.982599982436.0174000176

    66.748222-6.3120783.2627556-0.78412320.0706322.9962.3877.31579.682.985417.560.594704915139.4052950849

    76.748222-7.3640914.4409729-1.24515860.13085452.7172.1075.21677.312.710820.557.623095334342.3769046657

    86.748222-8.4161045.8004544-1.85866240.2232322.5081.8873.33775.212.497123.554.920883512645.0791164874

    96.748222-9.4681177.3412001-2.64641580.35757452.3391.7171.62873.332.332525.552.294139955547.7058600445

    106.748222-10.520139.06321-3.63020.5452.21101.5870.04971.622.2061

    116.748222-11.57214310.9664841-4.83179620.79793452.11111.4868.561070.042.1087

    126.748222-12.62415613.0510224-6.27298561.1301122.03121.3967.171168.562.0322

    136.748222-13.67616915.3168249-7.97554941.55657451.97131.3265.851267.171.9699

    146.748222-14.72818217.7638916-9.96126882.0936721.92141.2664.591365.851.9163

    156.748222-15.78019520.3922225-12.2519252.75906251.87151.2163.381464.591.8674

    166.748222-16.83220823.2018176-14.86929923.5717121.82161.1562.231563.381.8202

    176.748222-17.88422126.1926769-17.83517264.55189451.77171.1061.121662.231.7734

    186.748222-18.93623429.3648004-21.17132645.7211921.73181.0660.071761.121.7267

    196.748222-19.98824732.7181881-24.89954187.10249451.68191.0159.061860.071.6811

    206.748222-21.0402636.25284-29.04168.721.64200.9758.091959.061.6392

    216.748222-22.09227339.9687561-33.619282210.59921451.60210.9357.162058.091.6046

    226.748222-23.14428643.8659364-38.654369612.7669521.58220.9056.252157.161.5825

    236.748222-24.19629947.9443809-44.168643415.25133451.58230.8955.362256.251.5790

    246.748222-25.24831252.2040896-50.183884818.0817921.60240.8954.482355.361.5790

    256.748222-26.30032556.6450625-56.72187521.28906251.66250.9053.572454.481.5790

    1.6260.8652.722552.721.5790

    1.6270.8451.872651.871.5790

    MODERATE MEASURE of DEFORESTATION (ieESTIMATEDLife TableSET UP FOR GRAPH

    Constantyryrs-sqyrs-cuyrs-qdRATE

    6.767128-1.1019790.1002572-0.00421840.0000659HectaresForest

    DefRateYears100100ForestDefRatePercentPercent

    16.767128-1.1019790.1002572-0.00421840.00006595.7615.7694.240100.005.76ForestDeforest

    26.767128-2.2039580.4010288-0.03374720.00105444.9324.6589.59194.224.9301000

    36.767128-3.3059370.9023148-0.11389680.00533794.2533.8185.78289.534.252.587.594903491112.4050965089

    46.767128-4.4079161.6041152-0.26997760.01687043.7143.1882.60385.663.718.572.476260681327.5237393187

    56.767128-5.5098952.50643-0.52730.04118753.2852.7179.89482.433.2814.563.982599982436.0174000176

    66.767128-6.6118743.6092592-0.91117440.08540642.9462.3577.54579.682.9417.560.594704915139.4052950849

    76.767128-7.7138534.9126028-1.44691120.15822592.6872.0875.47677.312.6820.557.623095334342.3769046657

    86.767128-8.8158326.4164608-2.15982080.26992642.4881.8773.60775.212.4823.554.920883512645.0791164874

    96.767128-9.9178118.1208332-3.07521360.43236992.3391.7171.88873.332.3325.552.294139955547.7058600445

    106.767128-11.0197910.02572-4.21840.6592.21101.5970.29971.622.21

    116.767128-12.12176912.1311212-5.61469040.96484192.13111.4968.801070.042.13

    126.767128-13.22374814.4370368-7.28939521.36650242.06121.4267.381168.562.06

    136.767128-14.32572716.9434668-9.26782481.88216992.00131.3566.031267.172.00

    146.767128-15.42770619.6504112-11.57528962.53161441.95141.2964.751365.851.95

    156.767128-16.52968522.55787-14.23713.33618751.89151.2363.521464.591.89

    166.767128-17.63166425.6658432-17.27856644.31882241.84161.1762.351563.381.84

    176.767128-18.73364328.9743308-20.72499925.50403391.79171.1161.241662.231.79

    186.767128-19.83562232.4833328-24.60170886.91791841.73181.0660.181761.121.73

    196.767128-20.93760136.1928492-28.93400568.58815391.68191.0159.171860.071.68

    206.767128-22.0395840.10288-33.747210.5441.63200.9658.211959.061.63

    216.767128-23.14155944.2134252-39.066602412.81629791.59210.9257.282058.091.59

    226.767128-24.24353848.5244848-44.917523215.43747041.57220.9056.382157.161.57

    236.767128-25.34551753.0360588-51.325272818.44152191.57230.8955.502256.251.57

    246.767128-26.44749657.7481472-58.315161621.86403841.62240.9054.602355.361.62

    256.767128-27.54947562.66075-65.912525.74218751.62250.8853.712454.481.62

    1.62260.8752.842552.721.62

    1.62270.8651.992651.871.62

    HectaresForestDefForested

    DefRateYears100100

    5.7615.7694.245.76

    4.9324.6589.5910.41

    4.2533.8185.7814.22

    3.7143.1882.6017.40

    3.2852.7179.8920.11

    2.9462.3577.5422.46

    2.6872.0875.4724.53

    2.4881.8773.6026.40

    2.3391.7171.8828.12

    2.21101.5970.2929.71

    2.13111.4968.8031.20

    2.06121.4267.3832.62

    2.00131.3566.0333.97

    1.95141.2964.7535.251435.25

    1.89151.2363.5236.48

    1.84161.1762.3537.6516.538.20

    1.79171.1161.2438.76

    1.73181.0660.1839.82

    1.68191.0159.1740.83

    1.63200.9658.2141.79

    1.59210.9257.2842.72

    1.57220.9056.3843.6222.544.06

    1.57230.8955.5044.50

    1.57240.8754.6245.382445.38

    1.57250.8653.7646.24

    1.57260.8552.9247.0826.547.50

    1.57270.8352.0847.92

    1.57280.8251.2648.7428.549.14

    1.57290.8150.4649.54

    1.57300.7949.6650.34

    1.57310.7848.8851.1231.551.50

    1.57320.7748.1151.8932.552.27

    1.57330.7647.3652.64

    1.57340.7546.6153.3934.553.76

    1.57350.7345.8854.12

    1.57360.7245.1554.85

    1.57370.7144.4455.5637.555.91

    1.57380.7043.7456.2638.556.60

    1.57390.6943.0656.9439.557.28

    1.57400.6842.3857.62

    1.57410.6741.7158.2941.558.62

    1.57420.6641.0558.95

    1.57430.6540.4159.59

    1.57440.6439.7760.2344.560.54

    1.57450.6339.1560.85

    1.57460.6238.5361.47

    1.57470.6137.9262.0847.562.37

    1.57480.6037.3362.67

    1.57490.5936.7463.2649.563.55

    1.57500.5836.1663.84

    YrsLotYrsLot

    Cohort20102020

    81435.252445.38

    716.538.2026.547.50

    622.544.0632.552.27

    528.549.1438.556.60

    431.551.5041.558.62

    334.553.7644.560.54

    237.555.9147.562.37

    139.557.2849.563.55

    Forest Area% Forest% DefTotal Area

    1970383.0883299.73964321540.26035678461000384088.323840883200.00

    1973375.6783297.81039944152.18960055858410384088.323840883200.00

    1976357.9803293.20260506756.797394932526108384088.323840883200.00

    1979314.1353281.787261846418.212738153669953384088.323840883200.00

    1985284.0873273.964061182626.0359388174100001384088.323840883200.00

    1991252.9833265.865923754234.1340762458131105384088.323840883200.00

    1996213.7963255.663322435844.3366775642170292384088.323840883200.00

    2010195.6040250.926833703249.0731662968188484.3384088.323840883200.00

    2020166.6445243.387031399456.6129686006217443.8384088.323840883200.00

    Sheet2

    Sheet3

    Table 1: OLS Estimate of Deforestation

    (Moderate Measure of Deforestation, Forest Filtered for SS3)

    Mean Annual

    Rate of Deforestation

    Coef.

    t

    P>|t|

    [95% Conf. Interval]

    Years on Lot

    -1.102

    -12.632

    0.000

    -1.272

    -0.931

    Years-Squared

    0.100

    6.963

    0.000

    0.072

    0.128

    Years-Cubed

    -0.004

    -4.815

    0.000

    -0.006

    -0.003

    Years-Quadrupled

    0.000

    3.742

    0.000

    0.000

    0.000

    Constant

    6.767

    45.719

    0.000

    6.477

    7.057

    Number of obs = 13528F( 4, 13523) = 595.33R-squared = 0.1497

    Root MSE = 3.1324 Prob > F = 0.0000 Adj R-squared = 0.1495


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