modeling and visualization software for the nowcasting of the middle atmosphere t. egorova *, n....

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Modeling and visualization software for the nowcasting of the middle atmosphere T. Egorova*, N. Hochmuth *** , E. Rozanov * , **, A.V. Shapiro *,** , A.I. Shapiro * , and W. Schmutz * *PMOD/WRC, Davos, Switzerland ** IAC ETHZ, Zurich, Switzerland *** Institut für 4D-Technologien Fachhochschule Nordwestschweiz, Switzerland

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Page 1: Modeling and visualization software for the nowcasting of the middle atmosphere T. Egorova *, N. Hochmuth ***, E. Rozanov*, **, A.V. Shapiro *,**, A.I

Modeling and visualization softwarefor the nowcasting of the middle atmosphere

T. Egorova*, N. Hochmuth***, E. Rozanov*,**, A.V. Shapiro*,**, A.I. Shapiro*, and W. Schmutz*

*PMOD/WRC, Davos, Switzerland ** IAC ETHZ, Zurich, Switzerland

*** Institut für 4D-Technologien Fachhochschule Nordwestschweiz, Switzerland

Page 2: Modeling and visualization software for the nowcasting of the middle atmosphere T. Egorova *, N. Hochmuth ***, E. Rozanov*, **, A.V. Shapiro *,**, A.I

Goals of the project

• Find out how well we understand the solar irradiance influence on the middle atmosphere;

• Learn how to manage near-real-time operation and visualization;

• At the moment Space Weather Service is a secondary goal but may become interesting

Page 3: Modeling and visualization software for the nowcasting of the middle atmosphere T. Egorova *, N. Hochmuth ***, E. Rozanov*, **, A.V. Shapiro *,**, A.I

Nowcast of neutral and ion composition in the mesosphere based

on solar irradiance measurements

6-Hourly Data fromobservations by LYRA, PREMOS

orReconstructions

6-Hourly Data fromobservations by LYRA, PREMOS

orReconstructions

Preparation of the entireSpectral solar irradiancePreparation of the entireSpectral solar irradiance

Simulations of the neutraland charged species

with free running CICM SOCOLi

Simulations of the neutraland charged species

with free running CICM SOCOLi

Nowcasting results available on web

every 6 hours

Nowcasting results available on web

every 6 hoursOutput validation to improve the model

Output validation to improve the model

Page 4: Modeling and visualization software for the nowcasting of the middle atmosphere T. Egorova *, N. Hochmuth ***, E. Rozanov*, **, A.V. Shapiro *,**, A.I

Egorova et al. 2005; Schraner et al. 2008; Egorova et al. 2010

CTM:Model for Evaluation of oZONe trends

Rozanov et al. 1999, 2001Egorova et al. 2001, 2003

t = 15 min for dynamicst = 2 h for radiation horizontal resolution: T30 (3.75°) vertical resolution: 39 levels to 0.01 hPa

MEZON

MA-ECHAM4

GCM:Middle Atmosphere version of the European Center/Hamburg Model 4

Manzini and McFarlane, 1998t = 2 h for radiation and chemistry 41 chemical species Electrons, 17 negative ions 31

positive ions Reactions: 118 gas-phase,

33 photolysis, 16 het, 500 ionic GCM-CTM coupling by O3 , H2O, CH4,

N2O, CFCs

Chemistry-Ionosphere Climate model SOCOLi

Page 5: Modeling and visualization software for the nowcasting of the middle atmosphere T. Egorova *, N. Hochmuth ***, E. Rozanov*, **, A.V. Shapiro *,**, A.I

CCM SOCOLCCM SOCOLi i outputoutput

Mixing ratio of the neutral species and electrons, negative and positive ions density

for the 6 hour period after the last LYRA measurement

and their statistical properties

Mixing ratio of the neutral species and electrons, negative and positive ions density

for the 6 hour period after the last LYRA measurement

and their statistical properties

Charged components:Charged components:

OO+,+, O O22++, O, O44

++, N, N++, NO, NO++, N, N22++, H, H22OO22

++, H, H33OO++,O,O22++∙N∙N22, O, O22

++∙H∙H22O, HO, H33OO++∙OH, NO∙OH, NO++∙H∙H22O, NOO, NO++∙(H∙(H22O)O)22, NO, NO++∙(H∙(H22O)O)33, ,

NONO++∙CO∙CO22, NO, NO++∙N∙N22, NO, NO++∙H∙H22O∙COO∙CO22, NO, NO++∙H∙H22O∙NO∙N22, NO, NO++∙(H∙(H22O)O)22∙CO∙CO22, NO, NO++∙(H∙(H22O)O)22∙N∙N22, H, H++∙(H∙(H22O)O)22, H, H++∙(H∙(H22O)O)33, ,

HH++∙(H∙(H22O)O)44, H, H++∙(H∙(H22O)O)55, H, H++∙(H∙(H22O)O)66, H, H++∙(H∙(H22O)O)77, H, H33OO++∙CO∙CO22, H, H33OO++∙N∙N22, H, H++∙(H∙(H22O)O)22∙CO∙CO22, H, H++∙(H∙(H22O)O)22∙N∙N22

e¯,O¯, Oe¯,O¯, O22¯, O¯, O33¯, O¯, O44¯, OH¯, CO¯, OH¯, CO33¯, CO¯, CO44¯, NO¯, NO22¯, NO¯, NO33¯, HCO¯, HCO33¯, ClO¯, Cl¯, CH¯, ClO¯, Cl¯, CH33¯,O¯,O22¯∙H¯∙H22O, NOO, NO33¯∙H¯∙H22O, O,

COCO33¯∙H¯∙H22OO

Neutral components:Neutral components:

OO33 , O , O** , O , O , O , O22

**, NO, HO, NO, HO22, ClO, NO, ClO, NO

22 , OH, NO , OH, NO33, N, N

22OO55, , HNOHNO33, HONO, HONO

33, ClONO, ClONO22, Cl, N, N, Cl, N, N**, H, H

22OO22, H, HOCl, , H, HOCl,

ClCl22, Cl, Cl

22OO22, HCl , Br, CH, HCl , Br, CH22O, BrO, HBr, HOBr, BrNOO, BrO, HBr, HOBr, BrNO

33, BrCl, CH, BrCl, CH33, CH, CH

33OO22, CH, CH33O, HCO, CHO, HCO, CH

33OO22H, HH, H22O, O,

CFC-11, CFC-12, NCFC-11, CFC-12, N22O, CHO, CH

44, CO, H, CO, H22, CBrF, CBrF

33

Charged components:Charged components:

OO+,+, O O22++, O, O44

++, N, N++, NO, NO++, N, N22++, H, H22OO22

++, H, H33OO++,O,O22++∙N∙N22, O, O22

++∙H∙H22O, HO, H33OO++∙OH, NO∙OH, NO++∙H∙H22O, NOO, NO++∙(H∙(H22O)O)22, NO, NO++∙(H∙(H22O)O)33, ,

NONO++∙CO∙CO22, NO, NO++∙N∙N22, NO, NO++∙H∙H22O∙COO∙CO22, NO, NO++∙H∙H22O∙NO∙N22, NO, NO++∙(H∙(H22O)O)22∙CO∙CO22, NO, NO++∙(H∙(H22O)O)22∙N∙N22, H, H++∙(H∙(H22O)O)22, H, H++∙(H∙(H22O)O)33, ,

HH++∙(H∙(H22O)O)44, H, H++∙(H∙(H22O)O)55, H, H++∙(H∙(H22O)O)66, H, H++∙(H∙(H22O)O)77, H, H33OO++∙CO∙CO22, H, H33OO++∙N∙N22, H, H++∙(H∙(H22O)O)22∙CO∙CO22, H, H++∙(H∙(H22O)O)22∙N∙N22

e¯,O¯, Oe¯,O¯, O22¯, O¯, O33¯, O¯, O44¯, OH¯, CO¯, OH¯, CO33¯, CO¯, CO44¯, NO¯, NO22¯, NO¯, NO33¯, HCO¯, HCO33¯, ClO¯, Cl¯, CH¯, ClO¯, Cl¯, CH33¯,O¯,O22¯∙H¯∙H22O, NOO, NO33¯∙H¯∙H22O, O,

COCO33¯∙H¯∙H22OO

Neutral components:Neutral components:

OO33 , O , O** , O , O , O , O22

**, NO, HO, NO, HO22, ClO, NO, ClO, NO

22 , OH, NO , OH, NO33, N, N

22OO55, , HNOHNO33, HONO, HONO

33, ClONO, ClONO22, Cl, N, N, Cl, N, N**, H, H

22OO22, H, HOCl, , H, HOCl,

ClCl22, Cl, Cl

22OO22, HCl , Br, CH, HCl , Br, CH22O, BrO, HBr, HOBr, BrNOO, BrO, HBr, HOBr, BrNO

33, BrCl, CH, BrCl, CH33, CH, CH

33OO22, CH, CH33O, HCO, CHO, HCO, CH

33OO22H, HH, H22O, O,

CFC-11, CFC-12, NCFC-11, CFC-12, N22O, CHO, CH

44, CO, H, CO, H22, CBrF, CBrF

33

4D:latitude, longitude, altitude, time

4D:latitude, longitude, altitude, time

Page 6: Modeling and visualization software for the nowcasting of the middle atmosphere T. Egorova *, N. Hochmuth ***, E. Rozanov*, **, A.V. Shapiro *,**, A.I

Key chemical Key chemical processesprocesses

MiddleStratosphere

Mesosphere

O2 + hv (<240 nm) = O + O O + O2 + M= O3 + M

Ozone production

H2O + hv (<200 nm) = OH + H

NO + hv = NO+ + e-

Ozone destruction by HOx

EPP:EPP:

Air + particles=

HOx + NOx +Ions + e-

Ozone destruction by HOx

Ozone destruction by NOx

TransportTransport

GCRGCRSPESPEEEPEEP

Page 7: Modeling and visualization software for the nowcasting of the middle atmosphere T. Egorova *, N. Hochmuth ***, E. Rozanov*, **, A.V. Shapiro *,**, A.I

Relative deviation of the solar irradiance in Relative deviation of the solar irradiance in Lyman-Lyman- line from the 2-month mean. line from the 2-month mean.

Compiled by J. Lean

Page 8: Modeling and visualization software for the nowcasting of the middle atmosphere T. Egorova *, N. Hochmuth ***, E. Rozanov*, **, A.V. Shapiro *,**, A.I

Electron density in the tropics

Tropical mean time evolution (10-11.2003) of the electron concentration (cmTropical mean time evolution (10-11.2003) of the electron concentration (cm -3-3). ).

Solar UV

SPE

GCR

IR provided by J.-M. Wissing, AIMOS model

Page 9: Modeling and visualization software for the nowcasting of the middle atmosphere T. Egorova *, N. Hochmuth ***, E. Rozanov*, **, A.V. Shapiro *,**, A.I

Maps of the electron density at 75 km during Maps of the electron density at 75 km during quiet time and Halloween storm. quiet time and Halloween storm.

Page 10: Modeling and visualization software for the nowcasting of the middle atmosphere T. Egorova *, N. Hochmuth ***, E. Rozanov*, **, A.V. Shapiro *,**, A.I

Ozone changes due to Haloween storm SPE

Funke et al.,2010a

Page 11: Modeling and visualization software for the nowcasting of the middle atmosphere T. Egorova *, N. Hochmuth ***, E. Rozanov*, **, A.V. Shapiro *,**, A.I

Funke et al.,2010b

Page 12: Modeling and visualization software for the nowcasting of the middle atmosphere T. Egorova *, N. Hochmuth ***, E. Rozanov*, **, A.V. Shapiro *,**, A.I

SSI at 205 nm since 1.06.2004

Case study with CICM SOCOL: Increase SSI by ~5%

The sensitivity of the OH,O3 and electrons for 2004-5 can be estimated using any of availble data sets

Page 13: Modeling and visualization software for the nowcasting of the middle atmosphere T. Egorova *, N. Hochmuth ***, E. Rozanov*, **, A.V. Shapiro *,**, A.I

Comparison with observations:Hydroxyl (75 km, tropical mean)

June, July and August 2004

Page 14: Modeling and visualization software for the nowcasting of the middle atmosphere T. Egorova *, N. Hochmuth ***, E. Rozanov*, **, A.V. Shapiro *,**, A.I

Experimental setup for nowcasting

10-member model ensemble runfor the next 6 hours

10-member model ensemble runfor the next 6 hours

Spectral solar irradiance on model spectral grid

for the next 6 hours

Spectral solar irradiance on model spectral grid

for the next 6 hours

Initial fields for 10 ensemble

members

Initial fields for 10 ensemble

members

Model outputfor the next 6 hours

Model outputfor the next 6 hours

Initialization fieldsfor the next periodInitialization fieldsfor the next period

Page 15: Modeling and visualization software for the nowcasting of the middle atmosphere T. Egorova *, N. Hochmuth ***, E. Rozanov*, **, A.V. Shapiro *,**, A.I

Website

http://projects.pmodwrc.ch/lyra/

http://147.86.9.121/test/silver/:

10-11.2010

O3, NO, NO2, OH, H2O

e-, total p+

T, den, GPH

Page 16: Modeling and visualization software for the nowcasting of the middle atmosphere T. Egorova *, N. Hochmuth ***, E. Rozanov*, **, A.V. Shapiro *,**, A.I

Conclusions and outlook •Model reasonable reproduces the resposnse of the middle atmosphere to the variability of solar irradiance and particles

•Visualization software is ready for operations

•Validation should be extended to cover extra-polar ozone and electron density

•LYRA and PREMOS solar irradiance data is not yet fully calibrated and at the moment we do not have real-time SSI data to run the model in nowcasting mode

•The extention of the model to cover ionosphere will make our results more usable.

• Visualization software in climate mode can be use for educational and outreach purposes.

Page 17: Modeling and visualization software for the nowcasting of the middle atmosphere T. Egorova *, N. Hochmuth ***, E. Rozanov*, **, A.V. Shapiro *,**, A.I

PMOD/WRC, Davos

End of the presentation…Thank you!!!