“modeling and optimizing generation portfolios with complex hydro networks” webinar (november...
TRANSCRIPT
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“Modeling and Optimizing Generation Portfolios with Complex Hydro Networks”Webinar (November 12, 2015)
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Agenda / Expectations
• Introduction / Company Overview• PCI Platform and System Overview• PCI Optimization Framework• Optimization Model – PCI GenTrader• Demonstration• Wrap Up / Questions
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Optimization - Observations
• Generation portfolio optimization is universal– Reduce costs or increase profits– Value is measurable
• Robust portfolio optimization is not just UC/ED– More than load, unit data, price data– Fuel, pipeline, A/S, Emission, CC,
Transmission, Renewables, etc.– More complex = more need = more value– Automation and integration is crucial
• Hydro/Thermal Co-Optimization is the Holy Grail
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Hydro Electric
Fuel Markets
Thermal
Pipelines
Wind
Emissions
Transmission
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Optimization within Organizations
• The “one guy (or gal)” syndrome– Scalable?– Repeatable?– Enduring?– Ability to integrate?– Ability to Automate?
• The 100MB Spreadsheet– Supportable?– Permission based?– Auditable?– Stable?– Upgradeable?– Enhancements?– Market dependable?– What time horizon?
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Key Takeaways
• PCI handles the most complex systems - optimizes thermal and hydro resources across all commodities and markets
• PCI has consistent data model and optimization engine for short term, long term, and post analytic simulation
• PCI has open API, auditable, and can be automated for workflow management
• PCI is a collection of “one-guys (gals)”
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PCI Overview
Company:– Software Development for Energy Markets– 180 employees as of 11/2015
– Advanced level/skilled employees– Privately owned – no debt / organic growth.– Offices in OKC, Houston, Raleigh
System:– PCI GSMS (Generation Supply Management System)
Portfolio Optimization ISO Bid/Offer Management Bidding Analytics Shadow Settlement Post Analysis Deal Management/ETRM Gas Management Data warehouse & BI
Market:– 60% of US generation capacity using PCI– 70% of Fortune 500 Utility & Energy companies
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Transactional Database, Workflow Management, Communication, Permissions, Auditing, Web Browser Interface, APIs
Platform
Markets: ALL
Front Office
AESOCAISOERCOTIESOMISOISONENYISOPJMSPP
ISO Communication, Bid/Offer Management, Bid Evaluation, Price Forecasting
AESOCAISOERCOTIESOMISOISONENYISOPJMSPP
Trading
Markets: ALL
Deal Capture, E-Tag, Deal Analyst, ICE Interface, Gas Management, Contract Settlement, RT Pricing
Asset Operations
Markets: ALL
Outage Management, Journal, Plant Interface, GADS, Energy (QF) Scheduling, Gas Pipeline Scheduling
Post Analysis
Markets: ALL
Operational Performance Metrics
Optimization
Markets: ALL
ST, LT, Risk
P&LAnalyzerSettlementAnalyzer
PositionAnalyzerCustomAnalyzerCustomAnalyzerCustomAnalyzerCustomAnalyzerCustomAnalyzerCustomAnalyzerPCI Data Warehouse
Back Office
ISO Shadow Settlement, Allocations, Pre-Settlements, Reporting, Energy Accounting
PCI Application Platform
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PCI GenPortal PCI GenManager PCI GenTraderPCI Deal
ManagementPCI Asset
OperationsPCI PostAnalysis
AESOCAISOERCOTIESOMISOISONENYISOPJMSPP
MEM
AESOCAISOERCOTIESOMISOISONENYISOPJMSPP
MEM
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What PCI GenTrader Can Do For You
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LT WM DA
Planning:>1 month< 30 years
Portfolio Structuring
Risk Management
Earnings Forecasting
Asset Valuation
Term Trading
Origination Pricing
Within Month:>1 day< 1 month
Optimize Net Open/Residual
Asset Management
Outage Management
Fuel Forecasting
Emission Forecasting
Day Ahead:>1 Hour< 1 Week
Resource Plan
Suggested Trades
Open Position
Wind Management
Fuel Procurement
Deal Capture
WD PA
Within Day:>0.5 Hour< 1 day
Intra-day optimal dispatch
Outage rescheduling
Wind adjustments
Deal Capture
Post Analysis:>1 Hour< 1 Year
Key Performance Indices
Outage Costing
Transaction Costing
Operational Efficiency
OperationsPlanning Day Ahead Post AnalysisReal Time
PCI GenTrader Applications
Plan with real characteristics
Forecast with real characteristics
Execute with real characteristics
React with real characteristics
Measure and improve with real
characteristics
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PCI GenTrader – Feature Evolution
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Unit CommitmentEconomic DispatchLoad & Generation
Constraints: *Fuel *Transmission
Opportunity: *Ancillary Services
Opportunity: *Markets *Options
Constraints: *Combined Cycles
Constraints: *Emissions *Renewables
Opportunity: *Hydro Thermal Co-optimization
Improved computational power and speed increases
Improved optimization logic enhancements and methods
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Optimization: Maximize Profits
• Find (solution variables)– Generation schedules– Bilateral purchases and sales– Market purchases and sales– Fuel purchases and sales
• Such that (objective function)– We can achieve maximum Profit = REVENUE – EXPENSE• While meeting the constraints
Supply = DemandRespects physical limitations
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GenTrader Input and Output
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Markets Power Markets Fuel Markets Depth and tiers transmissions pipelines
Prices LMP curves Energy Ancillary Services Fuel Volatility Correlations
Generator Characteristics reservoirs/waterways operating limits ancillary capabilities ramp & cycling limits heat rates hydro power curves emission rates startup profiles
planned & forced outages Contracts
Options Forward (quantity risk) Energy Ancillary services Fuels Emissions
Financial Data Revenue and expense Mark-to-Market P&L Production costs O&M costs Emission costs Expected portfolio P&L Portfolio Risk Exposure Arbitrage opportunities System Net Open Position
Physical Data Optimized unit schedules Energy & Ancillary Services Combined-cycle operation Waterway flow schedules Reservoir elevation levels Contract schedules Recommended option exercise Fuel consumption Capacity factors, starts/stops Emission constraints Outages
Study Types 1 hour to 30 years Optimized UC Fixed UC
Run Modes Portfolio Stress Test Stochastic
*stochastic information
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Optimized Plan Workflow in EIM Market
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OD+0 OD+1..7
Day-Ahead PlansDay-Of Plans
PCI GenTrader
Load ForecastAncil Svc Req.Unit OutagesFuel PricesHydro Cond.
Optimal Balanced Schedules• Energy• Regulation up/down• Spin Reserve• Non-spin ReserveTransmission… …
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GenTrader Optimization Capabilities
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Portfolio Manager
Fuel Manager
Fuel Markets
Fuel Contracts
Pipelines
Storage
Emissions
Water Manager
Hydro SystemCascaded
Reservoirs, Waterways
and Generating
UnitsHydro Electric
Asset Manager
Power Trader Scheduler
Power Markets
Power Gen
Loads
Power Contracts
Trans-missions
AncillaryServices
Wind
Solar
Generation/Trans-mission Planner
Demand Response
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PCI GenTrader Data Models
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Price Library [Power]
Power Market [Purchase]
Plant
Power Market [Sale]
Unit
Forward / Option [Sale]
Reservoir Hydro Unit
Fuel Market [Purchase]
Price Library [Fuel]
Fuel Market [Sale]Forward [Sale]
Forward / Option [Purchase]
Forward [Purchase]
NOx
CO2 and Other Emissions
SO2
Waterway
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Hydro-Electric Network Optimization
• Optimize thermal and hydro resources across all commodities and markets
• Consistent data model and optimization engine for all both short term and long term simulation
• Fully integrated and automated or stand-alone deployment
• Support operational planning, trading, and bidding activities
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Hydro Network Optimization
• Network topology– reservoirs, waterways, power houses and pumps.
• Optimal scheduling of water flow (cfs), reservoir elevation level (ft), and power generation (MW)
• Comprehensive hydro-electric characteristics– Head/Flow dependent generation efficiency (cfs/MW/ft) – Head/Flow dependent pumping efficiency– Reservoir storage function– Tailrace elevation function
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Hydro Network Optimization
• Non-linear Head-Dependent Hydro-Electric Conversion Function– Pumping and generation– Varying water to power rate with head level– Up to 10 head segments and up to 10 MW breakpoints for each
head segment – Tailrace level (optional), which could reduce head, could be
affected by the rate of water discharge at outlet.
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Hydro Network Optimization
• Reservoir model– physical min/max storage limits– target lower/upper bounds with violation costs
• Waterway model– Min/Max flow limits– Direct and reverse flow costs– Multiple waterways between reservoirs
• Hydro Generating/Pumping Units– Operating limits, cycling constraints, O&M costs– Multiple units on a single penstock– Multiple penstocks for a unit
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Hydro Network Topology
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Generator/Pump
Reservoir
Ground
Connector
Hydro Nodes
Runoff
Penstock
Spillway
Water Release
Waterways
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Reservoir Model
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• Storage Function– Elevation vs Volume
• Storage Limits– Hourly min and max
• End-of-period Target Levels– Hourly lower and upper bounds
with violation costs• Natural Runoff– Hourly inflow and outflow
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Waterway Model
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• Waterway Types– Penstock– Spillway– Bypass
• Controls– Hourly min/max flow– Flow ramp rate– Spillway gate– Delays
• Costs– Direct flow costs– Reverse flow costs
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Generator Model
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• Capabilities– Hourly High/Low Operating Limits– Generation and Pumping Capacity– Ancillary Services
• spin/non-spin, reg-up/reg-down, etc.
• Efficiency– H/K curves (head-dependency)– Pumping efficiency
• Constraints– Minimum up/down time– Time between gen and pump modes– Must-run– Startup sequence
• Cost Characteristics– Startup costs– O&M costs
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Study Setup
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Same model used for 1-hour to 30-year studies by setting begin and end dates
Gas-day or Reservoir-day definition could be different from calendar day
Handling of NERC Holidays in Standard Product Definition
Support both Optimized Commitment and Fixed Commitment
Reserve sharing
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Modeling Capabilities
• Study Types– Short Term and Long Term– Portfolio and Stress Test– Stochastic Analysis
• Markets– Markets and transmissions– Price libraries
• Contract Types (power, fuel, emissions)– Forward– Options
• Generation Asset Model– Heat rates and pump/generation efficiency– Generating units and reservoir/waterway operating limits– Ancillary service capabilities– Cycling constraints, emission constraints, fuel constraints– Multi-stage units (combined cycle)
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Input Data
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Markets• BAs• ISOs
Transmission• Power
Transport• Fuel
Price Libraries• Price index• Forward curves
Contracts• Buy/Sell• Commodities• Emission Allowances
Generation Assets• Plants and units• Hydro Networks• Unit fuel supplies• Emission sources
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Running a Study
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Output Data
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Multi-Stage Unit Model
• Distinct Stages– Operating limits– Ancillary service capabilities– Heat rates– Ramp rates– Min up/down times– Fuel sources and blends– Emissionsone stage ≈ one simple cycle unit
• Transition Matrix– Transition allowed/disallowed– Transition time– Transition cost– Transition fuel consumption– Transition constraint
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Model of a 3-Stage Unit
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Ancillary Service Scheduling and Dispatch• Balanced Ancillary Service Schedules
– Supply >= demand for every a/s type in every period– Clearly identifiable individual resource supplying a/s– Required by ISOs to feasibility and dispatch instructions
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Ancillary Service Requirement vs Responding Resources